Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXIV (Arbitration Season)

[Ajax1995]

What are the guidelines to grade the development of prospects?

Thank you. I'm reading this whole discussion and I can't even figure out what it means to 'develop' a player.

Who is an example of a player any team has developed, much less the Caps just so I understand what the heck this even means?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

I'll throw out that their recent drafting has hurt them. Projects like Vrana and Samsonov (not so much) are fine but it hurts to not have 2 more borderline NHLers pushing everyone else at a minimum and contributing real offensive depth as a best case.

 

[trick9]

I'll throw out that their recent drafting has hurt them. Projects like Vrana and Samsonov (not so much) are fine but it hurts to not have 2 more borderline NHLers pushing everyone else at a minimum and contributing real offensive depth as a best case.

Jakub Vrana is absolutely an NHL player already on most of the teams. He might be for Capitals next season, too.

I agree with you about Samsonov. He's a great prospect that has developed very well in the KHL, but in the end that was a bit puzzling pick, and maybe they should have gone with another forward to add to their depth. For example the guy drafted right after Samsonov.

 

[Caps8112]

giving poile credit for Hatcher, Stevens, Suter and weber is disingenuous imo. There are guys that are going to be great players no matter what team they get drafted by and then their are projects. Its like giving GMGM credit for picking Ovi. Pretty sure all of us would have picked Ovi and whatever percentage that would have picked Malkin wouldnt have been wrong either. Kuzy falls in this category imo. He was going to be at minimum a 50 pt player. Now whether caps coaching staff made him the 70 plus point player I dont know. Think developing players points more directly to Mojo. High pick that hasnt really ever become what originally was thought? Im not a fan of him but as others have stated he works well on the PP and puts in round 50 pts.

 

[txpd]

giving poile credit for Hatcher, Stevens, Suter and weber is disingenuous imo. There are guys that are going to be great players no matter what team they get drafted by and then their are projects. Its like giving GMGM credit for picking Ovi. Pretty sure all of us would have picked Ovi and whatever percentage that would have picked Malkin wouldnt have been wrong either. Kuzy falls in this category imo. He was going to be at minimum a 50 pt player. Now whether caps coaching staff made him the 70 plus point player I dont know. Think developing players points more directly to Mojo. High pick that hasnt really ever become what originally was thought? Im not a fan of him but as others have stated he works well on the PP and puts in round 50 pts.

everybody would have picked Ov. The work doesnt stop there. Look at Boston and Seguin. Look at Montreal and Subban. There's more to it than that.

Meanwhile there are numerous teams that would have picked Kessel instead of Backstrom. JvR, Kyle Turris, and Thomas Hickey were chosen in front of Karl Alzner. Sam Gagner and Jake Vorocek were picked after Alzner. Was selecting Alzner the easy choice?

 

[Raikkonen]

Btw, Ovi got married this past Saturday. Did you know?!

 

[g00n]

everybody would have picked Ov. The work doesnt stop there. Look at Boston and Seguin. Look at Montreal and Subban. There's more to it than that.

Meanwhile there are numerous teams that would have picked Kessel instead of Backstrom. JvR, Kyle Turris, and Thomas Hickey were chosen in front of Karl Alzner. Sam Gagner and Jake Vorocek were picked after Alzner. Was selecting Alzner the easy choice?

Ovi was plug and play. Superstar level immediately. The only outside work he needed was based on what coaches decided they wanted from him. He always built himself up and continues to do so. He'd have been a top player on any team, with any coach, imo. If only 5% of his overall game is from coaching over the last 10 years does that really prove any point in favor of player development?

There are few players that we can say that about, so it's strange that we're trying to add some level of "work in progress" to one of the best of all time, especially a guy who took over the league out of the box.

Instead we should be looking at middle of the pack guys like Fehr and so forth who were prolific scorers at lower levels or drafted based on potential but never fully realized it. That's how you measure teams player dev, imo.

 

[RandyHolt]

Thank you. I'm reading this whole discussion and I can't even figure out what it means to 'develop' a player.

Who is an example of a player any team has developed, much less the Caps just so I understand what the heck this even means?

I am starting to think that at its core, development is most dependent on the continuing health and motivation of the prospect, as they bide time for the kid to fill out; mature both physically and mentally.

Development is unique in this sport, as kids are largely drafted 2-4 years before they can expect to play a single game. When they are ready, the pipe is often clogged.

Or, if the pipe is not clogged, they are rushed; we often hear about how a prospect is ruined by being rushed say by a year. I am not sure I believe that, and no one can offer proof that they would have turned out differently; short of a bean pole being bent in half. For every kid rushed, there is probably a kid that lost motivation facing a clogged pipe. Was Eminger really the can't miss kid?

If they can survive that lengthy biding time "development" process - we can focus in on what team A does differently than team B. But I suspect that drill work done at a prospects practices, are largely the same with any team they are playing for.

So when or where are the unique development tools, of the best at their trade, even seen?

The easiest to see as a fan: Giving a probable NHL grinder top line time for a year in the AHL, seems to be a common accepted "development" tool. But if it was that simple, every team would do that and viola every team would have 3 scoring lines.

I am starting to think most of the development is done long before a kid gets drafted. Is throwing Willy out on the PP for 300 AHL minutes at age 19, going to really change who he is?

I am theorizing the mental side of coaching is underrated, and is where a juniors / AHL coach does top end development work. The kids all have the physical tools. It's what's tapped into, in their head, things told and taught to them, that make the development difference.

 

[g00n]

It's definitely going to be hard to assess development league-wide without some pretty deep and long term knowledge of a team's draft classes, their AHL histories, and the roster spots they've had available at the NHL level in any given year.

By some analysis based on games played (50, 200) in the NHL the Caps rank about middle of the pack from 2003 to 2013 with little impact beyond the first round slam dunks (don't have the link, google it). But measurements like that can be misleading. Rebuilding teams (like the Caps for a part of that period) will often give players games they might not otherwise get on another team. They will also get better draft scores because they're picking high so much (see: Oilers). Teams like Detroit don't fare as well in that period because they're drafting much lower and have few roster spots due to ongoing success and depth.

So that's not really "development", which I think is evident in whether or not players achieve or exceed their expectations from draft day.

 

[txpd]

Ovi was plug and play. Superstar level immediately. The only outside work he needed was based on what coaches decided they wanted from him. He always built himself up and continues to do so. He'd have been a top player on any team, with any coach, imo. If only 5% of his overall game is from coaching over the last 10 years does that really prove any point in favor of player development?

There are few players that we can say that about, so it's strange that we're trying to add some level of "work in progress" to one of the best of all time, especially a guy who took over the league out of the box.

Instead we should be looking at middle of the pack guys like Fehr and so forth who were prolific scorers at lower levels or drafted based on potential but never fully realized it. That's how you measure teams player dev, imo.

Bruce mismanaged Ov. When Ovechkin had his bad year of getting blow out in the Olympics and getting embarrassingly upset in the playoffs first round, he didnt respond well. He suffered for two seasons.

Why are we focusing on Fehr who's career seems to have been derailed by injuries and not posting up the successes. Halpern and Schmidt as undrafted college players. Beagle too. Is Orlov a success or a failure as a non 1st round pick?

I suppose that you can opine that there was nothing the team could have done to keep him focused and motivated and there was nothing they could have done to bring him back. I dont buy that, but there's no point is disagreeing over it

 

[Langway]

I think of strong development largely as systemic with intelligence, discipline and patience chief features. I think of organizations developing strong leaders rather than just drafting really skilled or flashy individuals and that's mostly where they seem to fall short re: mental toughness and maturity. The Caps consistently rushed players under McPhee and it didn't help from a maturity standpoint. MacLellan and Trotz have tried to avoid but it still happened with Burakovsky in part due to weak winger depth. While there may be patience now when it comes to Vrana and he's developing physically and away from the puck there's some question whether he's refining his strengths enough at the AHL level (the same goes for Bowey, at least initially). In part I don't think there's enough quality pace on the farm to emphasize certain areas at a high level and it's something where picks moved at the trade deadline and elsewhere have costed them. This would be my concern with Sanford fully developing his skill level and pace at that level (or anyone else not named Vrana due to his existing plus skating and skill levels).

The organization has their strengths and it's mostly addressing defensive and structural weaknesses. That requires discipline, patience and buying into team concepts but there's also a skill, decision-making and team attacking component that needs to be fleshed out more at all levels. It's hard to be a big believer in an approach that seems so unbalanced at heart. No area can be glossed over in order to be the best and yet skill and offensive execution seem like a bit of an easily disregarded afterthought. It should be relatively simple to get these guys to work on furthering their strengths. It's fun to do so. Mostly I don't get the sense their notion of skill and offensive play generally are refined, applied concepts and that there's a bit of a disconnect between the discipline levels required for structure and possession.

Often it's the glue guys heralded as systemic victories and it's been the lack of them in the bottom six for years that have been part of the issue. They've developed Beagle but that's just about it for quite a few years now. The other guy they had in-house recently (Perreault) was dumped for nothing. It's also the main glaring weakness in their drafting, which they appear to have tried to address this past draft but we'll see how that pans out.

 

[twabby]

Ovechkin's "bad" year in 2010-11 was due to an abnormally low shooting percentage (8.7%, compared to his career 12.4%). If he shot at his career average he would have had ~45 goals instead of 32. Still not 50, but certainly still a very good number and he was still #7 in the league in scoring.

His "bad" year in 2011-12 was Hunter having the team play Hunter Hockey (his shooting percentage returned to normal which adds more credence to the idea that fluctuations in shooting percentage are by and large random).

I understand that Ovechkin and Boudreau weren't seeing eye to eye at the end of Boudreau's tenure (the whole "fat ****" incident), but I'd hardly call that mismanaging a superstar.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Thank you. I'm reading this whole discussion and I can't even figure out what it means to 'develop' a player.

Who is an example of a player any team has developed, much less the Caps just so I understand what the heck this even means?

It's a whole lot easier to bash Trotz if you stay more vague!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Btw, Ovi got married this past Saturday. Did you know?!

Maybe the final step in his maturation process....well I guess kids will be.

I think this stabilization will be a positive to his career.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ovi was plug and play. Superstar level immediately. The only outside work he needed was based on what coaches decided they wanted from him. He always built himself up and continues to do so. He'd have been a top player on any team, with any coach, imo. If only 5% of his overall game is from coaching over the last 10 years does that really prove any point in favor of player development?

There are few players that we can say that about, so it's strange that we're trying to add some level of "work in progress" to one of the best of all time, especially a guy who took over the league out of the box.

Instead we should be looking at middle of the pack guys like Fehr and so forth who were prolific scorers at lower levels or drafted based on potential but never fully realized it. That's how you measure teams player dev, imo.

Fehr was injury prone in the NHL. You can't blame that on the Caps. Any other examples?

MP85 wasn't a decent development job? Beagle? Schmidt? Not draftees, but still spent time in the system before making the NHL. I'm sure some more examples could be dug up. Not saying they're great, but no worse than middle of the pack in systemic developmental success I'd wager.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Maybe the final step in his maturation process....well I guess kids will be.

I think this stabilization will be a positive to his career.

I think being married will lead to less distraction off the ice. Look at Kuzy, he's been married for a while and has a daughter, and I'd say he's very mature for a 24 year old dude. Kuzy is certainly more mature than Ovi was at that age. Ovi used to spend a lot of time partying and having fun with his sports cars.

With a wife in the picture and probably a kid sooner or later, I think Ovi will take another step forward in terms of maturity and leadership, which is good for him and all the young players he'll be asked to take under his wing.

 

[g00n]

Fear was injury prone in the, you can't blame that on the Caps. Any other examples?

MP85 wasn't a decent development job? Beagle? Schmidt? Not draftees, but still spent time in the system before making the NHL. I'm sure some more examples could be dug up. Not saying they're great, but no worse than middle of the pack in systemic developmental success I'd wager.

Fehr's injuries set him back for sure but he's also had healthy years and he's not been that top 6 guy he was supposed to be. I'm using him as an example of the type of player we'd be looking at. Matty P never got enough credit and Beagle is probably right about where he was projected to land, iirc. Schmidt was pretty highly regarded as a prospect and I don't see him as being above average in development yet, but it's too early to tell.

 

[txpd]

Fehr's injuries set him back for sure but he's also had healthy years and he's not been that top 6 guy he was supposed to be. I'm using him as an example of the type of player we'd be looking at. Matty P never got enough credit and Beagle is probably right about where he was projected to land, iirc. Schmidt was pretty highly regarded as a prospect and I don't see him as being above average in development yet, but it's too early to tell.

Projected to land by who? Who projected that Jay Beagle would ever play in the NHL at all? Maybe I am wrong but didnt the Caps see him on a try out contract or something in the ECHL and give him a shot at Hershey?

Yes, Schmidt became a regarded prospect after not being drafted. Didnt the Caps identify him as a guy they wanted and invite him to a development camp or two while he was still playing in college? He was unrestricted? Yes? He could have gone anywhere. If he was THAT highly regarded, how did the Caps end up with him? You make both Beagle and Schmidt sound like a can of corn fly ball easy play.

 

[g00n]

Projected to land by who? Who projected that Jay Beagle would ever play in the NHL at all? Maybe I am wrong but didnt the Caps see him on a try out contract or something in the ECHL and give him a shot at Hershey?

Yes, Schmidt became a regarded prospect after not being drafted. Didnt the Caps identify him as a guy they wanted and invite him to a development camp or two while he was still playing in college? He was unrestricted? Yes? He could have gone anywhere. If he was THAT highly regarded, how did the Caps end up with him? You make both Beagle and Schmidt sound like a can of corn fly ball easy play.

The point that you keep sailing right past is how much is the team responsible for that development? Too early to tell with Schmidt (who had college to help him along and was well-regarded when signed, iirc) and there are many who only see Beagle as a 4th liner or borderline 3rd liners with motor and not much else. Let's not pretend there's been a lot of development going on just because 2 guys floating at the bottom of the roster weren't top prospects at 18.

The great player development success story in Capitals franchise history is...Jay Beagle.


edit: also, weren't we talking about FORWARDS, and skilled top 6 types at that? What to Alzner, Schmidt and Beagle have to do with that topic?

 

[Calicaps]

The point that you keep sailing right past is how much is the team responsible for that development? Too early to tell with Schmidt (who had college to help him along and was well-regarded when signed, iirc) and there are many who only see Beagle as a 4th liner or borderline 3rd liners with motor and not much else. Let's not pretend there's been a lot of development going on just because 2 guys floating at the bottom of the roster weren't top prospects at 18.

The great player development success story in Capitals franchise history is...Jay Beagle.

Honestly, the greatest development success story in franchise history is probably Peter Bondra. Can't think of another guy who overachieved as much as 12.

 

[txpd]

The point that you keep sailing right past is how much is the team responsible for that development? Too early to tell with Schmidt (who had college to help him along and was well-regarded when signed, iirc) and there are many who only see Beagle as a 4th liner or borderline 3rd liners with motor and not much else. Let's not pretend there's been a lot of development going on just because 2 guys floating at the bottom of the roster weren't top prospects at 18.

The great player development success story in Capitals franchise history is...Jay Beagle.


edit: also, weren't we talking about FORWARDS, and skilled top 6 types at that? What to Alzner, Schmidt and Beagle have to do with that topic?

It appears that your position is that the Caps players that have succeeded would have gotten there without the Caps management and coaching and that those that failed may have failed for the lack of quality management and coaching.

Yea, Beagle is a 4th line center that looked solid at 3C before his broken wrist last season. Might be that the Caps saw him as that. But most of the rest of the league didnt see him as an NHL player at all. He's a good one. Schmidt could have been drafted by any team. He wasnt. The Caps took an interest in him and helped him and got him signed and he is a solid young NHL defenseman. I didnt see him show up as a solid NHL D. But maybe I am wrong. Hell maybe the Caps have held him back or are even eroding his game.

The Caps didnt develop 4 solid or better goalies in a row? Varly, Neuvy, Holtby and Grubby? Those guys were all gonna make it regardless?

Are you serious that you think the Capitals have had zero influence on Ovechkin or Backstrom or Kuznetsov or Burakovsky or Johansson or Alzner or Carlson or Orlov? That they did nothing to make Laich a better player or Boyd Gordon or Semin? Its just not possible.

 

[txpd]

Honestly, the greatest development success story in franchise history is probably Peter Bondra. Can't think of another guy who overachieved as much as 12.

I saw what might have been Bondra's first preseason game. I watched from the press box with a writer. Bondra had 5 breakaways and missed the net on all of them. The guy next to me said, "who is that guy? the other team cant defend him at all"

 

[g00n]

Honestly, the greatest development success story in franchise history is probably Peter Bondra. Can't think of another guy who overachieved as much as 12.

Based on his draft position (8th round), he was probably the best bang for draft buck. But was he developed by our system? He was a point a game player in the Czech league before coming to DC and pretty much started scoring right away as a Cap, logging 28 goals in his first full season (2nd year as a Cap).

Why were we talking about this again? Oh yeah, because some kid went to the Pens. And it wasn't because of PD, so I guess it doesn't matter now.

 

[Calicaps]

Based on his draft position (8th round), he was probably the best bang for draft buck. But was he developed by our system? He was a point a game player in the Czech league before coming to DC and pretty much started scoring right away as a Cap, logging 28 goals in his first full season (2nd year as a Cap).

Why were we talking about this again? Oh yeah, because some kid went to the Pens. And it wasn't because of PD, so I guess it doesn't matter now.

And because it's August...

 

[txpd]

But was he developed by our system?

this is really not worth arguing over. I just have to ask what your definition of a system developed player is? If Bondra doesn't qualify and Beagle doesn't qualify, who does?