Tidbits: A Statistical View of the Season

[Jarick]

Spent most of my day doing this, so hope it's useful.

I wanted to see how the team fared vs playoff and non-playoff teams, as well as how the players did. Did they beat up on the bad teams or were they competitive against both?

Oh, and I included the playoff games in the stats if you're wondering why it's not 48 games. Better sample size.

Team Stats:

Category|vs Playoff|vs Non PO| Total |Difference
Wins|9|18|27|-9
Losses|15|7|22|8
OT Losses|2|2|4|0
Points|20|38|58|-18
Win Percent | 0.385 | 0.704 | 0.547 | -0.319
Goals For|53|76|129|-23
Goals Against|77|67|144|10
Goal Differential | -24 | 9 | -15 | -33
PP Goals For|14|13|27|1
PK Goals Against|12|14|26|-2
Special Teams Differential | 2 | -1 | 1 | 3
ES Goals For|39|63|102|-24
ES Goals Against|65|53|118|12
ES Goal Differential | -26 | 10 | -16 | -36
Shots For|683|838|1521|-155
Shots Against|784|684|1468|100
Shot Differential | -101 | 154 | 53 | -255
Attempts For|1134|1516|2650|-382
Attempts Against|1305|1285|2590|20
Attempt Differential | -272 | 385 | 60 | -657

Player Stats:

Name|G vs PO|G vs Non|P vs PO|P vs Non|S/G vs PO|S/G vs Non|Win% With|Win% W/O|ES G|PP G|ES Pts|PP Pts
P-M Bouchard|2|7|8|14|1.6|1.8|0.542|0.600|9|0|20|2
Kyle Brodziak|3|5|5|9|1.7|2.0|0.547|0.000|7|1|12|2
Cal Clutterbuck|3|2|4|8|2.0|2.2|0.553|0.500|5|0|12|0
Charlie Coyle|4|4|8|8|1.5|1.4|0.524|0.636|7|1|15|1
Matt Cullen|3|4|14|16|1.5|2.2|0.585|0.250|7|0|26|4
Mikael Granlund|0|2|4|4|1.2|1.4|0.537|0.558|2|0|6|2
Dany Heatley|4|7|8|13|1.9|2.6|0.611|0.412|8|3|14|7
Mikko Koivu|2|9|13|24|2.1|3.1|0.547|0.000|11|0|24|13
Zenon Konopka|0|0|0|0|0.5|0.6|0.526|0.607|0|0|0|0
Torrey Mitchell|2|3|4|5|1.0|0.8|0.520|1.000|5|0|9|0
Zach Parise|9|10|16|23|3.2|4.3|0.547|0.000|12|7|26|13
Jason Pominville|0|4|1|8|2.0|2.8|0.375|0.598|3|1|6|3
Mike Rupp|0|1|2|2|0.8|0.8|0.542|0.559|1|0|4|0
Devin Setoguchi|7|7|11|17|2.0|2.1|0.547|0.000|9|5|22|6
Jason Zucker|3|2|5|2|1.4|2.4|0.600|0.500|5|0|7|0
Jonas Brodin|1|1|6|5|1.1|1.0|0.540|0.667|1|1|9|2
Brett Clark|0|0|0|1|1.0|0.5|0.438|0.567|0|0|1|0
Justin Falk|0|0|1|2|0.4|1.0|0.575|0.462|0|0|3|0
Tom Gilbert|2|1|9|4|0.4|1.0|0.521|0.800|2|1|9|4
Nate Prosser|0|0|0|0|0.3|0.3|0.647|0.500|0|0|0|0
Marco Scandella|2|0|3|0|1.1|1.5|0.364|0.595|2|0|3|0
Jared Spurgeon|2|3|4|11|1.8|1.6|0.557|0.500|1|4|8|7
Clayton Stoner|0|0|3|8|0.7|1.0|0.571|0.250|0|0|11|0
Ryan Suter|1|3|11|21|1.8|1.8|0.547|0.000|1|3|17|15

Click to read more...

 

[Jarick]

TONS of stuff to digest up there, but I'll try and point some things out:

TEAM STATS

1. Massive difference in win percentage vs playoff and non playoff teams. Most teams beat up on the non-playoff teams in the larger picture, but the Wild struggled the most against playoffs teams compared to other playoff teams in the West.

2. Big negative goal differential against playoff teams and a small positive goal differential against non playoff teams. Again, Wild struggled against strong opponents.

3. Special teams were fairly even, surprisingly, across the board.

4. ES goal differential was what killed the Wild as you can see. Team just couldn't score and shut down the other teams at even strength. This is something that needs to be addressed for next season.

5. Shot differential, again, Wild outshot by good teams and were outshooting bad teams.

6. Attempted shots, same thing as above.


Long story short, this team was pretty good against crappy teams, and pretty bad against good teams. In pretty much every facet other than special teams.

 

[W75]

Sounds like the 8th seed in the regular season was spot on.

 

[BigT2002]

Great analysis as always dude. Said it from the get go when you gave out the numbers we were in trouble when we made the playoffs because we only had an above .500 chance against Vancouver. We had only won like 1 game against every other team that made it to the Playoffs IIRC

 

[Jarick]

PLAYER STATS - PLAYOFF VS NON

Here is where it's interesting to see which guys racked up points on the PP vs even strength or beat up on crappy team.

There were a lot of guys who beat up on crappy teams to get their points, including Bouchard, Koivu, Parise, Suter, Spurgeon, Setoguchi, and Pominville.

8 of Pominville's 9 points came against non-playoff teams! But way too small sample size.

That top line really did struggle against good teams. Koivu, Parise, even Suter had 2/3 of their points against bad teams.

It's encouraging that Coyle, Zucker, and Brodin put up equally strong numbers against playoff teams.

Gilbert's weird...he has twice as many points against playoff vs non playoff teams but shot the puck half as much.

Cullen to a lesser extent, he was a good performer against both strong and weak teams, but he shot the puck a lot more against the crappy ones.

 

[Jarick]

WIN PERCENTAGES

There are so many caveats here that it might not even be worth exploring due to small sample sizes and when guys missed games, but let's look at it anyway.

These guys statistically helped the team most:

Cullen, as the team was over twice as successful with him. We all knew that though.

Stoner, I think you can write off because those were just in the playoffs.

Heatley, statistically the Wild were worse off without him by a good amount, but I'm not sure if that's because they were already trending down.

Prosser, Falk, Zucker, Spurgeon all a little bit.

Konopka actually seemed to statistically make the team worse. Not sure if that's just stats or if there's something to it.

Coyle, Brodin, Clark, and Pominville all joined the team after the hot start so it skews everything I think.

Gilbert didn't miss a lot so probably small sample size.



Looking at it, for most of those guys I think it's just when they missed games and how many and not the impact they had. Still wanted to throw it out there.

 

[Jarick]

POWER PLAY VS EVEN STRENGTH

Okay, here's more interesting bits.

The top PP guys got a big percent of their points on the PP of course. Suter and Spurgeon got nearly half their points there. Koivu, Heatley, Parise, and Pominville all got a third or so.

Setoguchi, Brodziak, Cullen, and Bouchard were used on the PP but didn't get many of their points there.

I'd like to point out though that Cullen actually tied with Parise for leading the team in points at even strength. I think his speed and skill really is effective 5v5. Seto and Bouchard as well.

Clutter, Coyle, Mitchell, Zucker, and Stoner didn't play the PP so that's why there's a big disparity.

 

[W75]

Shortened season surely makes it difficult to decide whether certain phenomenons are significant or not. But this is interesting stuff. Great job.

 

[W75]

I'd say that the step one was to win the weaker teams. That's how you go to playoffs. If you play ok against the better teams but underachieve against weaker teams, you cannot get enough points.

Of course, we saw in the end that it was very difficult to beat any of the weaker teams.. However, next step is to battle hard and stable against the better teams. And to become one of them.

 

[PuckInTheNards]

WIN PERCENTAGES


Heatley, statistically the Wild were worse off without him by a good amount, but I'm not sure if that's because they were already trending down.

This is, I think, the most interesting point and frankly, I don't know what to make of it. As bad as I think we was this season, he put up goals at among the best rates on the team and the team won with him in the lineup. I think he might be a less likely buyout than a lot of us think.

Another thought... he's the kind of guy who will bring substantial return at the deadline next year. That alone makes it worth keeping him around.

 

[DeuceMN]

Great info Jarick!

Thanks for putting in the time to do this. Lots to ponder...

 

[Generic User]

Great info Jarick!

Thanks for putting in the time to do this. Lots to ponder...

Solid, solid new avatar.

 

[DeuceMN]

Solid, solid new avatar.