A Spin on the Top 100 for the 2006 Draft

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Brock, Jun 6, 2006.

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  1. Brock

    Brock Registered User

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    In Microsoft excel, I managed to enter some data for about 123 players eligible for this years NHL entry draft. That data entered being the rankings for these players by THN, Mckeens, CSB and ISS (the ones given by THN). I then averaged each players score out to come up with a top 100 for the upcoming draft.

    Hopefully this is ok in terms of guidelines with copy enfringement, because I'm not giving out the exact rankings of those agencies, but an average score for those 4 together that I have obtained. If not, then moderators can feel free to delete this I guess.

    Back to the rankings...Essentially a couple issues came up. In regards to CSB, their rankings are divided up to North American vs. Euro for their skaters. So this poses a slight problem in terms of ranking because it influences scores because a guy like Phil Kessel is ranked number 5 on CSB NA, where as Yuri Alexandrov is the number 4 european, so this inflates or deflates their scores slightly because it's not quite where other agencies have them tabbed. But I felt that this problem works itself out to an extent as both north american and euro players have their scores influenced equally. At least it didn't seem to skewer the rankings severely.

    The other concern revolves around goaltenders, where it gets even more complicated. CSB ranks their goaltenders seperate from their skaters, but also divided up by NA/Euro. ISS also has their goalies ranked seperately. So this did tend to inflate the goaltending rankings overall. However, I kind of liked the way the rankings ended up without trying to overcome this problem because every NHL draft goaltenders end up getting taken higher then we anticipate usually.

    Anyway enough with the background, here is how the top 100 turned out.

    1. Erik Johnson
    2. Jordan Staal
    3. Niklas Backstrom
    4. Jonathan Toews
    5. Phil Kessel
    6. Peter Mueller
    7. Derrick Brassard
    8. Jiri Tlusty
    9. Jonathan Bernier
    10. Michael Frolik
    11. Bryan Little
    12. Kyle Okposo
    13. James Sheppard
    14. Bob Sanguinetti
    15. Chris Stewart
    16. Nigel Williams
    17. Ty Wishart
    18. Riku Helenius
    19. Leland Irving
    20. Michael Grabner
    21. Cory Emmerton
    22. Ivan Vishnevsky
    23. Alexander Vasyunov
    24. Ondrej Fiala
    25. Mike Forney
    26. Ben Maxwell
    27. Ryan White
    28. Yuri Alexandrov
    29. Joe Ryan
    30. Jesse Joensuu
    31. David Fischer
    32. Jhonas Enroth
    33. Nick Foligno
    34. Mark Mitera
    35. Codey Burki
    36. Semen Varlamov
    37. Chris Summers
    38. Cal Clutterbuck
    39. Patrik Berglund
    40. Tomas Kana
    41. Claude Giroux
    42. Blake Geoffrion
    43. Ben Shutron
    44. Artem Anisimov
    45. Mike Weber
    46. David Ruzicka
    47. Tony Lagerstrom
    48. Vladimir Zharkov
    49. Tomas Marcinko
    50. Trevor Lewis
    51. Brian Strait
    52. Joe Palmer
    53. Bryce Swan
    54. Francois Bouchard
    55. John Armstrong
    56. Jamie Mcginn
    57. Michal Neuwirth
    58. Matthew Corrente
    59. Bobby Hughes
    60. Jan Mikael Juutilainen
    61. Brady Calla
    62. Kevin Montgomery
    63. Billy Sauer
    64. Andrei Popov
    65. Reto Berra
    66. Ryan Hillier
    67. Carl Sneep
    68. Simon Denis Papin
    69. Matt Beleskey
    70. Theo Peckham
    71. Mike Ratchuk
    72. Igor Makarov
    73. Niko Hovinen
    74. Oskar Osala
    75. David Kveton
    76. John Degray
    77. Dennis Persson
    78. Robert Nyholm
    79. Mathieu Carle
    80. Jonas Ahnelov
    81. Joonas Lehtivuori
    82. Igor Zubov
    83. Andreas Nodl
    84. Martin Latal
    85. Eric Gryba
    86. Ryan Flynn
    87. Michael Caruso
    88. Nikolai Kulemin
    89. Riley Holzapfel
    90. Kevin Armstrong
    91. Jeff Petry
    92. Benjamin Breault
    93. Timo Seppanen
    94. Jaime Mcbain
    95. Eetu Heikkinen
    96. Robin Figren
    97. Bud Holloway
    98. Derrick Lapoint
    99. Ryan Turek
    100. Brad Marchand

    Hope that many of you find this interesting. I mostly did this for my FHL sim league drafts but figured I'd post it as well.

    If you have any other questions, feel free to post them.
     
  2. Kirk- NEHJ

    Kirk- NEHJ Registered User

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    Nice list, Brock, but how do you justify having Jonathan Bernier ahead of Kyle Okposo?
     
  3. Brock

    Brock Registered User

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    Kirk, this isn't my personal list actually. As explained, it's a list compiled averaging out the rankings of various scouting agencies. Bernier up that high was just the way it worked out, because of an inflation due to the CSB.

    If this were my own personal list, there would be many changes (Okposo being higher just one of them). However, I could actually see Bernier going relatively high, perhaps even as a top 10 selection. He's a real solid goalie and if a team really likes him ahead of several other goalies, I could see him going that high. Goalies are so hard to predict.
     
  4. Dr.Sens(e)

    Dr.Sens(e) Registered User

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    Nice Brock. It's funny, but I did a similar kind of ranking, however I multiplied the CSB Euro rankings by 2 (based on a rather loose assumption that about half the Euro's will be taken versus NA) and then multiplied each of the goalie rankings by 10, given you won't see more than a 3 or 4 goalies taken per round on average. It comes out rather similar just the same (although goalies like Bernier and Helenius drop a bit).

    And it's good to have your rankings for our draft in two weeks so I know whether I need to trade up in front of you!!! :handclap:

    (just kidding of course, I know you'll have your favorites that defy these rankings, some by quite a bit no doubt).
     
  5. Amadeus

    Amadeus Stand Witness

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    Brad Marchand is terribly underrated. IMO he'll go in round 2.
     
  6. Kirk- NEHJ

    Kirk- NEHJ Registered User

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    Ah, my bad- I was guilty of not reading your entire post. My apologies...
     
  7. Rookie Chargers

    Rookie Chargers Registered User

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    :( Great minds think alike. I did something similar in a sim league for the coaches draft, please don't ask. Picking 17th I got my 8th ranked coach, got my man you can say. I understand where your idea is coming from. :) :handclap:
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2006
  8. clay

    clay Registered User

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    Berglund not in the top 30? How does that work?
     
  9. MN_Gopher

    MN_Gopher Registered User

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    I see Ryan Flynn lots now. But IMO Micheal Carmen is better. Both played u18 and both will be gophers next year too.
     
  10. Brock

    Brock Registered User

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    Because according to the THN, the ISS has Berglund ranked 102. That severely effected his average ranking.
     
  11. Rookie Chargers

    Rookie Chargers Registered User

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    Also his rise has been in the last week or so. Gone by the 37th pick. :cry:
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2006
  12. Rmac22

    Rmac22 Registered User

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    No question. I have to think his stock has gone way up since the Memorial Cup.
    I hope JFJ took notice when he was there.
     
  13. inferno98

    inferno98 Registered User

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    This is a great compile and a great look at another type of mock draft
     
  14. NYR469

    NYR469 Registered User

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    your info is wrong...iss draft guide has berglund #21

    and when using CSS rankings how did you adjust for the fact that NA skaters, NA goalies, Euro Skaters and euro goalies are on separate lists meaning that they have 4 guy ranked #1??
     
  15. The Mars Volchenkov

    The Mars Volchenkov Registered User

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    I've seen Jamie McBain going first round in a lot of mock drafts and would like to see the Sens take him, but you have him at 94. What don't you like about him?
     
  16. Kirk- NEHJ

    Kirk- NEHJ Registered User

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    It's hard to do.

    I used a similar system to build a numerical rankings list based on where the various scouting services had the players, and for the CSS rankings, I just used the numbers, which no doubt skewed the ratings in favor of Euro players and goalies.

    If someone a lot smarter in math than I am comes up with some kind of formula to better account for the advantages that the goalies and Euros get for being on different, smaller lists than the NA skaters, then I'd love to see it.
     
  17. Kirk- NEHJ

    Kirk- NEHJ Registered User

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    McBain in the 1st round isn't going to happen. I've not seen him ranked anywhere near there by CSS, Red Line, ISS or anyone else.

    He's on the rise after an excellent U-18 performance, but I don't think it's enough to get him into the top-30. I think his kudos for the championship run has contributed to him being a lot higher on mocks than he should.

    Show me any NHL team that has him in their first-round and you can color me surprised.
     
  18. inferno98

    inferno98 Registered User

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    Its a compile of averaged rankings, the guy who made it pretty much had no say where guys go he was just putting rankings together and averaging them out. He did not put johnson #1 or Marchmand #100, it was just the way it came out.
     
  19. Senor Rational

    Senor Rational Registered User

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    That was pretty interesting

    Thank you
     
  20. Brock

    Brock Registered User

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    In the THN draft guide, they give out ISS rankings for players listed in the top 50 of their list, and according to that information, they have Berglund at 102. Maybe THN was using a non final ISS list? Who Knows.

    And I didn't adjust it at all, as I explained in my original post. Dr. Sens says he compiled a similar list and used a formula to try and adjust for this difference, and it came out very similar. I had personally fiddled around with several ways of trying to adjust it, and didn't really like how it turned out. Such as multiplying goalie rankings by 10, as Dr. Sens did. And I felt that it ended up giving the goalies too little credit. After fiddling, I decided that it seemed to work out the best when it did not receive any adjustment.

    Take it for what it is.
     
  21. monster_bertuzzi

    monster_bertuzzi registered user

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    Proof that a good tournamet can help your stock (and hurt it as well with a bad one): Ben Maxwell and Ty Wishart.
     
  22. Anthony Mauro

    Anthony Mauro DraftBuzz Hockey

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    Just 18 more days to break out the crayons. You haven't seen him ranked anywhere near there by CSS, Red Line, or ISS but do they draft?
     
  23. Dr.Sens(e)

    Dr.Sens(e) Registered User

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    You might be right Brock, but I also have Berglund ranked #18 by ISS based on the TSN listing, which was released a few months ago. Given his performance at the U-18's, it seems unlikely ISS dropped him out of the top 100 based on that. Also, ISS's latest update that I saw had Berglund specifically noted as a "Riser", so my guess is you have an old ranking. Here are the links:
    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?fid=10631&hubname=
    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?fid=10684&hubname=

    As a result of this difference, Berglund is in my top 20. He is #15 at Young Guns, #19 at the THN, #26 at McKeens at #8 Euro by CSB (which with my latest ranking I actually did a 4x multiple for Euros (making Backstrom #4, Frolik #8, Tlusty#12, Alexandrov #16 etc.). This gave Berglund a 32nd ranking overall by CSB. Of note, Steblick, whom I respect quite a bit, has him rated #19, which is included in my ranking. Where ever ISS has him ranked, I think it's pretty clear Berglund is a consensus first rounder at this point.
     

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