A Realistic Look at our season so far (long)

[IceNeophyte]

Well, maybe optimistic

Last year through 19 games, the Golden Knights had achieved 25 points. This year through the same games, we only have 17. Disaster right?

But let’s look at it from a different perspective. Last year, all the pundits were discussing how the NHL front-loaded our schedule to be easier to give the team a running start building a fanbase. No one expected the level of success we would achieve even with a favorable schedule in the first quarter of the season. While the home-road mix is fairly even (9-10 last year vs 8-11 this year), it can be argued that the opponents were stronger. Notwithstanding our scoring drought and GG’s affinity for Merrill, I have been tracking our results this year against the same team same venue last year, disregarding when during the season that match-up happened last year. Here is what I have:

Game – Last Yr Pts – This Yr Pts
PHI@VGK - 0 – 0
VGK@MIN - 0 - 2
VGK@BUF - 2 - 0
VGK@WSH - 2 - 0
VGK@PIT - 0 - 0
VGK@PHI - 2 - 2
BUF@VGK - 2 - 2
ANA@VGK 1st – 2 - 2
VAN@VGK - 2 - 1
TBL@VGK - 2 - 0
OTT@VGK – 0 - 2
VGK@NSH – 2 - 0
VGK@STL – 0 - 0
CAR@VGK – 1 - 2
VGK@TOR – 1 - 0
VGK@OTT – 2 - 2
VGK@MTL – 0 - 0
VGK@BOS – 0 - 0
ANA@VGK 2d – 0 - 2
Total – 20 – 17

So with injury woes and a debilitating suspension, we are 3 points shy of last year when compared to same match ups. We won a couple we had lost last year, we lost a few we had won last year. Last year, we suffered injuries to skaters in the Spring that led to stretches of 8 and 13 games at .500. Our injuries are worse and earlier this year, but if the guys we have keep putting it together, we could conceivably end the year close to where we did last season.

With the help of solid gold pads, I have confidence they will be in the mix even without Haula and Stastny. 6 of our next 7 are against Pacific foes. If we can pull off a run here, the rocky start will be behind the team. If we can't compete against Pacific teams, then the team is what it is and it becomes a race for first overall draft pick anyway.

Schmidt rejoining should improve our blue line, and if Carpenter keeps playing like he did last night, the team is actually icing competitive lines, all things considered. Fourth line continues to be an absolute joy to watch, whether they score or not. Eakin has so far made me regret every criticism I made of him last year.

I’ve also been tracking Karlsson’s production. Sparing you the details, he is at 4-10-14 so far this year, compared to 9-7-16 first 19 games last year and 6-7-13 compared to same matchups and venues last year. So, his demise has been slightly exaggerated. 2 points behind or 1 point ahead of last year so far, depending on your perspective. He had a goal (OT game winner) and an assist when STL played here last year, so this comparison will look worse after tomorrow night if he doesn't produce. A hattie tomorrow night would be a welcome gift, but whatever funk Smith is also in, he needs to get out of it for WK to succeed.

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[IceNeophyte]

I just realized we have two back-to-backs next week. Which means we'll get to see Subban twice

I hope we can see the Subban that won in shootout vs Preds last year.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Vegas does have to keep up a pretty high pace for the rest of the year to simply get to the 95 point range to be with a playoff chance. I think they still have their work cut out for them.

I also think Karlsson has to have a bunch of second assists because, points aside, he has felt very invisible for long stretches and has noticeably struggled more compared to last year.

But if he has a somewhat inflated point total compared to how he's played, we might have to shell out more to keep him on the team. If he's going to struggle like this, then at least we want to sign him on a good contract going forward hopefully.

But it is unfair to talk too much about him because everyone apart from Marchessault, Tuch, Eakin, Reaves and Hunt has struggled compared to what they should be doing for the team to be successful.

But I think we would probably give this group another go next season with a few tweaks and I think if they stay healthier/less suspended-ier then this team could do a lot better then.

Especially if you have Glass and Brannstrom making the NHL and possibly Gusev. Not to mention Bischoff or Whitecloud instead of Merrill and some other moves.

 

[IceNeophyte]

Vegas does have to keep up a pretty high pace for the rest of the year to simply get to the 95 point range to be with a playoff chance. I think they still have their work cut out for them.

I also think Karlsson has to have a bunch of second assists because, points aside, he has felt very invisible for long stretches and has noticeably struggled more compared to last year.

But if he has a somewhat inflated point total compared to how he's played, we might have to shell out more to keep him on the team. If he's going to struggle like this, then at least we want to sign him on a good contract going forward hopefully.

But it is unfair to talk too much about him because everyone apart from Marchessault, Tuch, Eakin, Reaves and Hunt has struggled compared to what they should be doing for the team to be successful.

But I think we would probably give this group another go next season with a few tweaks and I think if they stay healthier/less suspended-ier then this team could do a lot better then.

Especially if you have Glass and Brannstrom making the NHL and possibly Gusev. Not to mention Bischoff or Whitecloud instead of Merrill and some other moves.

Thy had to keep a high pace to get there last year, so I wholeheartedly agree.

 

[ltsthinaz]

Team is missing Schmidt, Haula, Stastny, missed Pacioretty and more for significant period (Tuch too). I think making the playoffs is iffy this year, we're not sneaking up on anyone and we need some more top-end talent (like a sniper to put some of those chances in (tops in SOG, 29th in scoring). That's being an expansion team.

I think VGK will be a good team for years. Good management, coaching, great fan base and city to attract free agents. Plenty of cap space, draft choices.

Win or lose this year, I believe we should just stay the course, don't try to rush it.

 

[IceNeophyte]

They didn't sneak up on anyone beyond new years day last year.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Thy had to keep a high pace to get there last year, so I wholeheartedly agree.

I think the idea of comparing corresponding fixtures from last season is a novel way to look at it. Obviously teams change year after year but I think it can be as instructive as looking where we were after the same number of games last season.

I think I'm still concerned about this season, though. Schmidt helping the defense is something but with Stastny and Haula still out for some time and Pacioretty still yet to find good play, I worry the playoffs might be a far climb.

 

[GKG18]

I think regardless of who is on the ice, they need to play hungry. That's been the difference this year.

 

[IceNeophyte]

I think regardless of who is on the ice, they need to play hungry. That's been the difference this year.

I honestly think hunger has only been a difference in maybe 2, 3 games. In many games, especially more recent ones, they've played possessed for 50 minutes of a game, but have given it all away in 10 minutes of the 2d. Also, Merrill should become an actor in Western movies instead of an NHL player, and while Holden's overall performance last game gives me hope, my jury is still out on him. Yes, there has been a scoring drought, but if your defense is weak, you lose games 3-1 that you might have won 1-0 last year.

 

[Nevada Jones]

I've posted this before, and I keep coming back to it as I puzzle over what's wrong with the Knights. Nothing is wrong with them I think. This is the 70 point team most of us expected to see last year.

So we need to summon together a blue-ribbon panel of experts to analyze/explain how the heck the VGKs managed to have the season they did last year! Way overachievers!

But it was a magical, unforgettable season, and a lot of fun was had by all.

What I think we're seeing now is mostly a bunch of expansion unprotected castoffs playing much closer to their baseline than the career seasons many of them had last year. Which brings me to the question...what happens at the trade deadline this season? (Not that I'm in mode. Okay, maybe just a bit.) Will GMGM blow the team up as much as is practical and try to collect/regain draft picks in an effort to go back to the original playoffs in 3/Cup in 5 or 6 plan?

Just thinking out loud here. And planning for the future.

 

[Vegan Knight]

I've posted this before, and I keep coming back to it as I puzzle over what's wrong with the Knights. Nothing is wrong with them I think. This is the 70 point team most of us expected to see last year.

So we need to summon together a blue-ribbon panel of experts to analyze/explain how the heck the VGKs managed to have the season they did last year! Way overachievers!

But it was a magical, unforgettable season, and a lot of fun was had by all.

What I think we're seeing now is mostly a bunch of expansion unprotected castoffs playing much closer to their baseline than the career seasons many of them had last year. Which brings me to the question...what happens at the trade deadline this season? (Not that I'm in mode. Okay, maybe just a bit.) Will GMGM blow the team up as much as is practical and try to collect/regain draft picks in an effort to go back to the original playoffs in 3/Cup in 5 or 6 plan?

Just thinking out loud here. And planning for the future.

Haha I don't think we should give up on this year yet. I mean, the team has been missing 2/3 of their second line and their top defender for the first quarter of the season.

I think they give this team another go next season. I don't think there's any chance they do anything drastic to the roster. Maybe see if someone wants Eakin or if someone had been interested in Haula (not likely now with his injury)

There's also Glass who will probably make the team next season and they will probably make a big try for Gusev to help the team out at forward and Brannstrom likely makes the team to help out defense. Plus, if they keep losing games there might be an impact player they can pick up with a lottery pick.

I don't see what this team would get that would help them out more than those three (maybe four) might, who are already or would be in the system.

 

[Knightmare]

I think a big part of it is expectations and too much pressure. When you’re expected to suck it’s easier to over achieve and surpass all expectations. You really can’t do anything wrong. Just have fun. Play hockey. And do it in a sold out arena to fans who love you.

... but then you magically go to the SCF in your first year and win tons of awards, you’re now expected to be great. Oh shit. . Now they gotta prove the team wasn’t a fluke. The season wasn’t a fluke. Karlsson, GMGM, Gallant. . Etc...

You have guys who just signed big contracts and are expected to show their worth. You have William Karlsson having to prove himself to even get a contract. I think the pressure may have gotten to them and they cracked.

It sucks to see them lose, but I still love watching them play. I think we have a lot of guys coming up that should be exciting next year. Not giving up on this year, but not holding my breath eaither.

Whatever happens, happens. Just glad we have hockey in Vegas.

 

[Nevada Jones]

Pessimism is my middle name, don't ya know?

I would feel differently if I saw the VGKs making any consistent improvement. But they aren't. Thought maybe the Anaheim game meant something. But it didn't. (And it was the Ducks, after all.) Four of our eight wins have come vs Ducks and Sens by the way.

It's been pretty much SSDG so far this season. And folks much smarter than me, Turk, for example, seem to have no answers. And the players seem to have no answers, either. Postgame last night Reilly said they have to find a way out of this slump. Slump?!? To me, you had to have been doing well and then not in order to be in a slump! VGK have not looked good since end of preseason. I'm not faulting effort, but I think the reason no one has an answer (other than to blame injuries, schedule, etc., which aren't completely invalid) is that this team just isn't very good. Wild Bill is not a 40 goal scorer. Flower isn't going to have a career GAA. Patches is looking like a bust. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Myself, I guess I bought in to last season as being something we could build from. Unrealistic, though. Last year was a Hollywood movie! Until that blue-ribbon panel weighs in with their findings, I'm just gonna guess it was the perfect storm. Maybe a bit like a one hit wonder in music. There was the emotion of 1 October, the chip on the shoulder attitude, the Golden Misfits thing, Vegas flu, T-Mobile magic, a whole lot of intangibles that came together to make the team much more than it really was. All or most of that is gone now. And so we have our 70 point expansion team.

But, hey, I'm still all about Go! Go! Just tempering my expectations and looking more toward the future.

(Anyone who has read this far deserves a prize!)

 

[CupInSIX]

Tough to get past .500 when (aside from Tuch & Marchessault) your best players are McNabb, Eakin, Bellemare and Reaves (hm to Carrier)

The defense just doesn't have the confidence right now to hold pucks in, force turnovers, start good breakouts and odd man rushes. Last year it was all about speed, speed, speed and they were a pain in the butt to play against. I'm not holding out much hope Miller has another gear as he's probably a 3rd pairing offensive D playing above his comfort level. The good news is Theodore can (and will IMO) get better, and Schmidt is back. Not to mention Brannstrom eventually (this season). Bischoff and Whitecloud as well.

So, it's not all doom and gloom just yet. Smith was always more of a 2nd line 2-way guy. Tuch can and should replace him soon on a line with Marchessault. Stastny will be back sometime in December. There are options on the farm club for 3rd line wingers. The defense pairings will look a lot better once Schmidt has his legs (27-88 or 3-88 with 6 back on the 3rd pairing)

 

[GKG18]

So, they stink. No big deal. It happens. What gets my craw is how GMGM got rolled by Montreal. Now we have to watch Suzuki develop for another team (and whomever that 2nd rounder becomes). This could be Forsberg 2.0 going forward. When building a franchise, unloading picks and prospects is not the way to go. Dead horse, I know, but worth mentioning. I still enjoy watching them.

 

[IceNeophyte]

Anyone feel any differently today?

 

[hangman005]

Anyone feel any differently today?

As of a few hours ago. Yes. Anaheim playing tied us on GP... we are for the first time this season a playoff team.

 

[BattleBorn]

I've felt the same about this team since prior to the season starting to now with the exception of a week or so where I thought Pacioretty was a mistake.

The statistics were our friend most of the last season in the face of idiots making stupid statements about how the Knights weren't good, and they were the same this season for the opposite argument.

The last few games are more what I expect, and the shit we went through the first month-plus wasn't "sustainable." I expected this team to do within 10 points of what they did last year, and now we're deep in a hole to get to my goal. However, points don't matter in the playoffs.

Win the division, that's great. I hope we do, after that happens (or doesn't) the points don't matter anymore.

Let's go.

 

[NJD28]

I think the Knights are fine. A tough schedule to start with that was stacked with road games, no Schmidt to start with and Theodore a little late to the party, realistically, I think 30 points through the first 25 was probably going to be the best-case scenario. Now, hopefully they take some confidence on the road, since they're too good to be 5-9 away from home and start with a win in Chicago tomorrow night.

 

[Nevada Jones]

Anyone feel any differently today?

I am cautiously optimistic, as "they" say. And certainly hope I've been wrong about what I've been thinking. And that's entirely possible, even likely, as I'm usually wrong more often than right.

Still only a few games, though. Check back with me in April when we've clinched that playoff spot.

 

[IceNeophyte]

I've felt the same about this team since prior to the season starting to now with the exception of a week or so where I thought Pacioretty was a mistake.

The statistics were our friend most of the last season in the face of idiots making stupid statements about how the Knights weren't good, and they were the same this season for the opposite argument.

The last few games are more what I expect, and the **** we went through the first month-plus wasn't "sustainable." I expected this team to do within 10 points of what they did last year, and now we're deep in a hole to get to my goal. However, points don't matter in the playoffs.

Win the division, that's great. I hope we do, after that happens (or doesn't) the points don't matter anymore.

Let's go.

I still think this team could close within 10 points of last year. They are currently 6 points behind same number of games into last year, 5 points behind vs same matchups and venues. That projects out to 16 points behind last year at the end of the season.

For the team to catch up to last year's performance in the short run means a 12 game win streak starting against AZ last week, which has zero probability to happen (See WSH@VGK 12/4). All the rest of the games are "more" winnable, but you know how that goes, they are certain to drop a couple, even if they play at last year's pace. I still think they can take enough bites out of the remaining schedule to finish around 100.

For Karlsson, I left a couple games out of my stats. Corrected, he is now -5 goals and is even in assists (compared to same opponents and venues last year, -6 total points against first 25 games last year). That projects him also to be 16 points behind last year at end of season. I would take 62 points from him as a success, and it looks like the first line is starting to get it together a little more.

 

[Caroline Says ll]

A question from an outsider.

How has Tuch progressed this year? I saw many games of his last year and thought he was great but have caught none this year. I see his point total is excellant. What are long term expectations?

 

[hangman005]

A question from an outsider.

How has Tuch progressed this year? I saw many games of his last year and thought he was great but have caught none this year. I see his point total is excellant. What are long term expectations?

I’m bad at expectations so I’ll leave that to someone else. But as for how he’s looked... one word... amazing. Has been I’d argue our best, definitely most consistently good player this season. Gets into the dirty areas, uses his size well, is finishing more of his chances. I can’t actually recall the last awful play he’s made. But his future looks really good.

 

[CupInSIX]

Anyone feel any differently today?

I've been singing the same tune since before preseason so no.

 

[ChanceVegas]

Anyone feel any differently today?