The old geezer
Registered User
- Feb 10, 2007
- 715
- 0
Alright there’s lots of complaints about revenue, again, and I’ve also started receiving the usual e-mails from GM’s concerned they're being held hostage, again, to unreasonable contract demands when. (Honestly guys I don't mind receiving them)
I ask that people, in particular our newly forming Admin team and player agents, to think about slightly non-traditional approaches. The following is my opinion, as a regular GM, on some possible ways you could look at the problem and potential solutions.
The main issue:
League revenue compared to a constantly increasing cap and associated player expenses
Contributing factors:
(i) SIM revenue model is very limited and does not effectively compensate for changing expense models
(ii) Balance between ensuring a reasonable level of talent actually enters the FA market vs. teams having little options in contract demands by players
(iii) Fool hardy contract offers by a few GM’s each year raising the bar for contract demands in subsequent negotiations.
(iv) Partial benchmarking of contract demands to NHL salaries
Possible options:
The common elements in both these proposals are not changing the cap (stays $44M permanently) or the revenue model aside from some potential tweaking of endorsements. Changing these elements every year does not address the underlying pressures which is in the contract negotiation element which is not solely a problem of the player agent process many GM’s had created their own problems b/c they can’t get over letting someone walk.
Option 1:
This option is not really what I would recommend but if we’re looking for KISS solutions I would simply suggest that when using NHL salaries to determine FMV (fair market value) we discount that rate by the difference of the NHL cap vs. the HFNHL cap when the NHL contract was signed.
Example – player X signed a contract for $5M per season when the NHL cap was $50M so the HFNHL equivalent FMV would be $4.4M.
The static salary cap should, to a degree, force teams to cut players and improve the FA market.
Option 2:
This option is much more comprehensive but involves a higher degree of administration. That said if Swingstein Enterprises is growing it may be feasible. This is a tweaked version of a model that I had proposed and was actually approved by the Admin team years ago (pre-Reggie actually) but was never implemented. You’ve likely seen a UFA randomizer spreadsheet Reggie uses from that proposal though it’s been used in a somewhat different context than originally intended.
The following model is intended to not only more effectively standardize the establishment of FMV but increases the random aspect for intangibles so that you don’t automatically get the player if you give a fixed price.
Cornerstone 1 is a FMV team. Ideally 3 individuals participate be they player agents and/or Admin members who once a week receive a list of FA’s (UFA or RFA) that teams are trying to resign. This would only happen once per player as once FMV is assigned the contract negotiations move to the next phase which does not require this team.
Each member would e-mail back their FMV assessment given the circumstances and the average becomes in fact the FMV.
This team would establish some general guidelines for how it would determine FMV but the idea is that after that it doesn’t become a debate and should not be subject to change based on who signed who for what (ie this does not increase ever year based on what some HFNHL GM does). While there may still be some variation in assessments in the short term, ideally, over time a list is kept for past assessments and the FMV process becomes more consistent.
Cornerstone Number 2 is intangibles and random factors. This is somewhat what that simple spreadsheet was about though it really could use an overhaul and be a bit more dynamic. Once FMV is established a percentage chance based on your offer amount and how much time you are making the offer in advance of the current contract expiring is established via the table. Ie if I’m making a bid I, the GM, do not know what the FMV is (and should never be told) I simply send an offer. The player agent then assesses where in the table your offer fits (ie it’s 10% above FMV and 5 months in advance of Jult therefore I have a 4/6 chance of the player accepting the offer).
This approach takes the emphasis off the player agent and eliminates any potential questioning of fairness.
Now like I say that model could really use some enhancements (I’d be willing to take a stab) that allows other intangibles to influence the chance of a player accepting like length of service with the team, linemates and playing time (could be a positive or negative impact), etc.
Other things that might want to be considered is length of contract as Reggie currently does for different circumsatances.
While this approach requires a fair amount of up front work in establishing the processes, teams, and models after that the ongoing effort should be low and the consistency high and will address all of the underlying issues identified.
I would suggest you consider radical change now and once an approach is agreed upon any UFA’s/RFA’s that have already been resigned be reevaluated.
I ask that people, in particular our newly forming Admin team and player agents, to think about slightly non-traditional approaches. The following is my opinion, as a regular GM, on some possible ways you could look at the problem and potential solutions.
The main issue:
League revenue compared to a constantly increasing cap and associated player expenses
Contributing factors:
(i) SIM revenue model is very limited and does not effectively compensate for changing expense models
(ii) Balance between ensuring a reasonable level of talent actually enters the FA market vs. teams having little options in contract demands by players
(iii) Fool hardy contract offers by a few GM’s each year raising the bar for contract demands in subsequent negotiations.
(iv) Partial benchmarking of contract demands to NHL salaries
Possible options:
The common elements in both these proposals are not changing the cap (stays $44M permanently) or the revenue model aside from some potential tweaking of endorsements. Changing these elements every year does not address the underlying pressures which is in the contract negotiation element which is not solely a problem of the player agent process many GM’s had created their own problems b/c they can’t get over letting someone walk.
Option 1:
This option is not really what I would recommend but if we’re looking for KISS solutions I would simply suggest that when using NHL salaries to determine FMV (fair market value) we discount that rate by the difference of the NHL cap vs. the HFNHL cap when the NHL contract was signed.
Example – player X signed a contract for $5M per season when the NHL cap was $50M so the HFNHL equivalent FMV would be $4.4M.
The static salary cap should, to a degree, force teams to cut players and improve the FA market.
Option 2:
This option is much more comprehensive but involves a higher degree of administration. That said if Swingstein Enterprises is growing it may be feasible. This is a tweaked version of a model that I had proposed and was actually approved by the Admin team years ago (pre-Reggie actually) but was never implemented. You’ve likely seen a UFA randomizer spreadsheet Reggie uses from that proposal though it’s been used in a somewhat different context than originally intended.
The following model is intended to not only more effectively standardize the establishment of FMV but increases the random aspect for intangibles so that you don’t automatically get the player if you give a fixed price.
Cornerstone 1 is a FMV team. Ideally 3 individuals participate be they player agents and/or Admin members who once a week receive a list of FA’s (UFA or RFA) that teams are trying to resign. This would only happen once per player as once FMV is assigned the contract negotiations move to the next phase which does not require this team.
Each member would e-mail back their FMV assessment given the circumstances and the average becomes in fact the FMV.
This team would establish some general guidelines for how it would determine FMV but the idea is that after that it doesn’t become a debate and should not be subject to change based on who signed who for what (ie this does not increase ever year based on what some HFNHL GM does). While there may still be some variation in assessments in the short term, ideally, over time a list is kept for past assessments and the FMV process becomes more consistent.
Cornerstone Number 2 is intangibles and random factors. This is somewhat what that simple spreadsheet was about though it really could use an overhaul and be a bit more dynamic. Once FMV is established a percentage chance based on your offer amount and how much time you are making the offer in advance of the current contract expiring is established via the table. Ie if I’m making a bid I, the GM, do not know what the FMV is (and should never be told) I simply send an offer. The player agent then assesses where in the table your offer fits (ie it’s 10% above FMV and 5 months in advance of Jult therefore I have a 4/6 chance of the player accepting the offer).
This approach takes the emphasis off the player agent and eliminates any potential questioning of fairness.
Now like I say that model could really use some enhancements (I’d be willing to take a stab) that allows other intangibles to influence the chance of a player accepting like length of service with the team, linemates and playing time (could be a positive or negative impact), etc.
Other things that might want to be considered is length of contract as Reggie currently does for different circumsatances.
While this approach requires a fair amount of up front work in establishing the processes, teams, and models after that the ongoing effort should be low and the consistency high and will address all of the underlying issues identified.
I would suggest you consider radical change now and once an approach is agreed upon any UFA’s/RFA’s that have already been resigned be reevaluated.