A mock draft based on GM tendency.

MatchesMalone

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Aug 29, 2010
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I have a whole explicatory spiel on why use GM tendencies, if anyone wants it. But lemme get right to business.

1. New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes, C, USNTDP - The first two picks seem pretty much set in stone.

2. New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko, RW, SM-Liiga.

3. Chicago Blackhawks - Bowen Byram, D, WHL - Stan Bowman has picked out of pretty well everywhere in the first round... except for Russia. He's taken a bunch of USHL/NTDP players; many in the third and fourth rounds, and has landed a bunch who've played games - Stephen Johns, Tyler Motte, John Hayden, Vinnie Hinnestroza, Nick Schmaltz. Also Evan Barrett and Chad Krys are looking like decent prospects. So Turcotte is a strong possibility, but Byram looks like the BPA here to me.

4. Colorado Avalanche - Vasili Podkolzin, RW, VHL - Sakic has shown he doesn't mind picking out of relatively unusual sources for first round picks. Not a lot of top five picks have come out of Russia's second tier league, but not many came out of the AJHL like Makar did either. He hasn't picked much out of the CHL, so if not Podkolzin, I'd expect one of the NTDP players, maybe even Caufield.

5. LA Kings - Kirby Dach, C, WHL - Kings have picked mostly CHL in the first round during Blake's tenure there, although since taking over as top dog, he picked Rasmus Kupari out of Finland last year. Odds on favorite would have to be one of the WHLers.

6. Detroit Red Wings - Dylan Cozens, C/RW, WHL - No successful high picks out of USNTDP during Yzerman's tenure in Tampa. Last two first rounders out of the Dub, Foote and Howden are both looking pretty good so far. Yzerman is also the first GM on the list with a real sterling record out of Russia, and his one first rounder from outside CHL was Vasilievsky, so if Podkolzin is still on the board this is likely as far as he falls. And if Yzerman passes him that would raise red flags on the player for me.

7. Buffalo Sabres - Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP - Botteril picked out of USHL 8th overall in his first draft and NTDP in the second round of his second draft as head GM. Strong probability that this is one of the NTDP kids.

8. Edmonton Oilers - Peyton Krebs, C/LW, WHL - Both Holland and the Oilers scouting staff have a few first rounders out of the Dub in recent years. Holland's only pick out of USNTDP was Dylan Larkin 15th overall in 2014. He does pick out of the USHL in general fairly regularly. Wouldn't be too surprising if they go NTDP, but WHL seems like the safe bet.

9. Anaheim Ducks - Victor Söderstrom, D, SHL - I remember doing Bob Murray's draft tendencies a few years ago, and nothing has changed. First round will be CHL or Sweden. Another Swedish defenseman seems too obvious though, right?

10. Vancouver Canucks - Matthew Boldy, LW, USNTDP - Not many NTDP picks for Benning either, but these players are too good too keep waiting. Prime conditions for a string of NTDP players from 10-14.

11. Philadelphia Flyers - Trevor Zegras, C, USNTDP - Chuck Fletcher has had some tremendous success at times picking non-CHL early, mainly out of Sweden and USHL.

12. Minnesota Wild - Cole Caufield, RW, USNTDP - No idea what Fenton might do in his first real draft as head GM. But I just can't see Caufield lasting any longer than this.

13. Florida Panthers - Ryan Suzuki, C, OHL - Dale Talon is another GM who who will pick high from mostly anywhere, but more often than not it is CHL.

14. Arizona Coyotes - Arthur Kaliyev, LW, OHL - So far most of Chayka's first rounders and high picks have been CHL. But there was Keller from USNTDP...

15. Montreal Canadiens- Raphaël Lavoie, RW, QMJHL - While the majority of Marc Bergevin's high picks have been CHL, he's gone outside Canada more frequently in recent years. Not a lot of success out of Sweden, junior A or USNTDP though, so Broberg, Newhook, York, might have to keep waiting.

16. Colorado Avalanche - Alex Newhook, C, BCHL - Again Sakic picks from an unobvious source in the BCHL. Safest prediction here is that it probably won't be CHL.

17. Vegas Golden Knights - Philip Broberg, D, Allsvenskan - McPhee has always liked picking out of Sweden in early rounds, so Broberg/Söderstrom seem highly likely.

18. Dallas Stars - Thomas Harley, D, OHL - Jim Nill has never once picked out of USNTDP as head GM, so York continues to fall.

19. Ottawa Senators - Cam York, D, USNTDP - Dorion has shown no hesitation to draft out of NTDP, so if York really does fall this far, this one is a no-brainer. Dorion picks high from anywhere in North America, but I wouldn't expect Europe.

20. New York Rangers - Spencer Knight, G, USNTDP - So far Gorton's first rounders have been Sweden, Czech, Russia, USNDP, Sweden. So Nikolaev, Broberg, Söderstrom fit. But I dunno, I have a feeling this will be Knight.

21. Pittsburgh Penguins - Brett Leason, RW, WHL - We have decades of data on Jim Rutherford available. Almost all high picks are from WHL, OHL and USNTDP. I also remember reading an interview years ago where he said he doesn't like drafting D in the first round because they take too long to develop and then next thing you know after they enter the league they're UFA. Well here's a forward out of the Dub already a year into his development.

22. LA Kings - Moritz Seider, D, DEL - Again, tough to get a read on Rob Blake this early. Not so obvious he'll go CHL as would have been the case with the previous regime. The Kings actually have a German scout on staff, Stefan Ustorf.

23. New York Islanders - Bobby Brink, RW, USHL - Lamiorello goes mostly to Sweden and USA Hockey for the first round. And let's not forget, this is the guy who picked Brian Gionta and Zach Parise (Brink is 5'8).

24. Nashville Predators - Ville Heinola, D, SM Liiga - Poile consistently picks from anywhere and everywhere in the first round, so who the hell knows.

25. Washington Capitals - Lassi Thomson, D, WHL - Honestly McLellan hasn't had much success at the draft thus far, which makes it hard to know where he might pick, as generally I expect GMs to go back to the well they found water.

26. Calgary Flames - Matthew Robertson, D, WHL - Treleving's best successes thus far have come from WHL and OHL.

27. Tampa Bay Lightning - Samuel Poulin, LW, QMJHL - No true data on Brisebois' draft record, as it is all technically Yzerman's, but every year he was there as AGM they picked CHL first round.

28. Carolina Hurricanes - Connor McMichael, C, OHL - Early in his career Don Waddell picked from all over the place in early rounds; in later years he went mostly with CHL and had pretty good success out of the O.

29. Anaheim Ducks - Kaedan Korczak, D, WHL. Again, always CHL or Sweden in the first round. Murray also almost never picks players under 6' in the first round, so Höglander, Pelletier, Nick Robertson are doubtful.

30. Boston Bruins - Antoni Honka, D, SM Liiga - Still a relatively short draft résumé for Sweeney, but perhaps he'll return to the pond he found Vaakanainen in.

31. Buffalo Sabres - Nils Höglander, LW - Botteril with a bunch of picks out of Sweden and Finland in his first couple drafts.
 
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OB5

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May 2, 2015
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I have a whole explicatory spiel on why use GM tendencies, if anyone wants it. But lemme get right to business.


15. Montreal Canadiens- Raphaël Lavoie, RW, QMJHL - While the majority of Marc Bergevin's high picks have been CHL, he's gone outside Canada more frequently in recent years. Not a lot of success out of Sweden, junior A or USNTDP though, so Broberg, Newhook, York, might have to keep waiting.

Don't want to be that guy but where exactly is the tendency from Bergevin here?
 

MatchesMalone

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Aug 29, 2010
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Florida isn’t leaving the 1st Round without Knight or a defenseman, highly doubt they would go with Suzuki too even if they decided to go with a forward.

What makes you think all of this? As a rule I assume every GM picks BPA every time unless something in their history indicates otherwise. Tallon is clearly not as worried about the team's goalie prospect depth as the fans are, considering he hasn't drafted a single goalie in the past three drafts. Seems worth mentioning that he won his Cup in Chicago with relatively subpar goaltending.

Of Tallon's 16 first round picks as head GM, four were defensemen. The rest were all forwards. The fact of the matter is, fan's expectations are generally very different from what the pros actually do.
 
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MatchesMalone

Formerly Innocent Bystander
Aug 29, 2010
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Don't want to be that guy but where exactly is the tendency from Bergevin here?

Don't worry about being that guy. I'm extremely confident in my methodology and being challenged can only help me improve it.

2012 first: Alex Galchenyuk, OHL
2013 first: Michael McCarron, USNTDP
2014 first: Nikita Scherbak, WHL
2015 first: Noah Juulsen, OHL
2016 first: Mikhail Sergachev, OHL
2017 first: Ryan Poehling, NCAA
2018 first: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Liiga

OK, so right off the hop, we see a flaw in my execution. I did tend to conflate all of the CHL leagues; if a GM picks mostly out of WHL and OHL then I count that as a tendency toward the CHL in general, including QMJHL, but this is clearly not the case.

He did have a successful pick out of the Q a few years back in Sven Andrighetto... but yeah, obviously I don't know every team's GMs that well, and this was a massive research project, so I will have missed some things and made some mistakes.

If people point out those mistakes, and if possible, include corrections, that will help me put together the most accurate possible list.
 
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Lays

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Jan 22, 2017
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Gorton already said he's not going to draft a goalie in the first
^

And even if he never said that (which he did) Rangers aren’t drafting a goalie to add to what is already the deepest goalie depth in the league in Shestyorkin, Georgiev, Lindbom (39th in 2018), Huska, Halverson, Wall, etc.
 

ViktorBaeArvidsson

Greenville Swamp Rabbits fan lol
Feb 18, 2017
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What makes you think all of this? As a rule I assume every GM picks BPA every time unless something in their history indicates otherwise. Tallon is clearly not as worried about the team's goalie prospect depth as the fans are, considering he hasn't drafted a single goalie in the past three drafts. Seems worth mentioning that he won his Cup in Chicago with relatively subpar goaltending.

Of Tallon's 16 first round picks as head GM, four were defensemen. The rest were all forwards. The fact of the matter is, fan's expectations are generally very different from what the pros actually do.
Allright Dale, if you looked at the Panthers squad with your brain you would be a fool to think they would go with a forward if they plan on using the 13th and not trading it. Luongo, and Reimer are getting old in age and had very weak seasons last year, Motembeault is not a long term solution IMO, and Knight is easily the best goaltender prospect available, multiple analysts have them taking Knight if they keep their pick, just because Tallon past has him taking forwards doesn’t mean that will continue. Also, even if they don’t take Knight, their defense was another huge issue for them since that have no depth at the position, their best prospect who hasn’t already played for them is Max Gildon which is not good enough. This draft has plenty of defenders who look like future Top 4 guys in the 1st round and for the Panthers to pass on that to take a center which they don’t need at all is ridiculous to anyone, I 100% guarantee you that if the Panthers keep their pick they will leave with Knight or a defenseman, their forward core is not the issue, their defense and goaltending needs help, badly.
 

MatchesMalone

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Aug 29, 2010
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Allright Dale, if you looked at the Panthers squad with your brain you would be a fool to think they would go with a forward if they plan on using the 13th and not trading it. Luongo, and Reimer are getting old in age and had very weak seasons last year, Motembeault is not a long term solution IMO, and Knight is easily the best goaltender prospect available, multiple analysts have them taking Knight if they keep their pick, just because Tallon past has him taking forwards doesn’t mean that will continue. Also, even if they don’t take Knight, their defense was another huge issue for them since that have no depth at the position, their best prospect who hasn’t already played for them is Max Gildon which is not good enough. This draft has plenty of defenders who look like future Top 4 guys in the 1st round and for the Panthers to pass on that to take a center which they don’t need at all is ridiculous to anyone, I 100% guarantee you that if the Panthers keep their pick they will leave with Knight or a defenseman, their forward core is not the issue, their defense and goaltending needs help, badly.

One of the silliest ideas I consistently see fans get in their heads is that teams address current or short-term goaltending needs through the draft. The vast majority of goalies don't become starters until at least 25. Even for very high picks best case scenario is usually maybe 23.

^

And even if he never said that (which he did) Rangers aren’t drafting a goalie to add to what is already the deepest goalie depth in the league in Shestyorkin, Georgiev, Lindbom (39th in 2018), Huska, Halverson, Wall, etc.

OK that is a reasonable point.

Ducks won't take 2 defensemen in the first round.

Why not?
 

Anardil

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Nov 25, 2012
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The only reason that I am responding is because you said that this is a 'GM tendency' mock. Bergevin has never used a 1st round pick on a French Canadian player from the QMJHL.
 
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MatchesMalone

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The only reason that I am responding is because you said that this is a 'GM tendency' mock. Bergevin has never used a 1st round pick on a French Canadian player from the QMJHL.

Already acknowledged. Going to fix the mistakes and post a second version probably a couple days before the draft. I'm leaning towards Thomas Harley to the Habs now.
 
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Mallard

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One of the silliest ideas I consistently see fans get in their heads is that teams address current or short-term goaltending needs through the draft. The vast majority of goalies don't become starters until at least 25. Even for very high picks best case scenario is usually maybe 23.



OK that is a reasonable point.



Why not?

We need a centre badly as well to replace Getzlaf/Kesler. All we have is Sam Steel really in terms of a prospect who is projected to be top 6. I think one pick will be used on a centre and one on a defensemen. Based on your draft if Zegras is available at 9 it would be crazy if our GM passed on him IMO.
 
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MatchesMalone

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Aug 29, 2010
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Version 2.0

I made a few changes based on three things.
A. The feedback here.
B. Bob McKenzie's final draft rankings. I consider various lists, but trust TSN's final list the most. This meant falls for Suzuki, Lavoie, Kaliyev, Podkolzin, and jumps for Caufield, Moritz, Knight.
C. I fine-tuned my methodology. Rather than going mostly by tendency, I looked at why GM's have those tendencies - the trust they have for their scouts. The more successful picks they have from a given source, they build trust in those scouts and are more likely to pick early from said source.

This led to another important change - for GM's joining new teams, they don't bring their own scouting staff, so will have to rely on the scouts already in place with their new team. So I tried to go by the team's recent history, as well as their director of amateur scouting.

Also I decided to do trades this time. Ended up with three, which seems pretty consistent with the annual average.

1. New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes, C, USNTDP.
2. NY Rangers - Kaapo Kakko, RW, SM Liiga.
3. LA - trades 5 and 64 to Chicago for 3 - Bowen Byram, D, WHL - The GM tendencies suggest USNTDP for Chicago, but Byram is the consensus third best player in the draft. Chicago believes they will get an elite talent at five, and gets the 64th overall pick for their troubles.
4. Colorado - Dylan Cozens, C/RW, WHL - Sakic's picks so far have all been Europe or Western Canada
5. Chicago from LA - Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP.
6. Detroit - Kirby Dach, C, WHL.
7. Buffalo - Cole Caufield, RW, USNTDP.
8. Edmonton - Matthew Boldy, LW, USNTDP - Edmonton's scouting staff, led by Keith Gretzky, likes the USNTP. Holland wants some size and grit in the top six.
9. Arizona - trades 14 and 45 to Anaheim for 9 - Trevor Zegras, F, USNTDP - This is easily the most likely high pick to be traded, assuming Dach and Cozens are gone. There's a bunch of teams from 10-16 with excess picks, so bidding could get intense.
10. Vancouver - Peyton Krebs, LW, C.
11. Philadelphia - Vasili Podkolzin, RW, VHL.
12. Minnesota - Spencer Knight, G, USNTDP - Fenton will be one of the wildcards early. They picked a couple goalies high in Nashville (Pickard 18, Hellberg 38). Minnesota's scouting staff, led by Guy Lapointe, loves the USNTDP.
13. Florida - Moritz Seider, D, DEL - They've had more success out of Europe than NA lately.
14. Anaheim from Arizona - Victor Söderstrom, D, SHL.
15. Montreal - Thomas Harley, D, OHL.
16. Colorado - Alex Newhook, C, BCHL.
17. Vegas - Philip Broberg, D, Allsvenskan.
18. Dallas - Ville Heinola, D, SM Liiga - Dallas' head European scout, Kari Takko, is a longtime affiliate of Ässät; currently listed as a consultant.
19. Ottawa - Cam York, D, USNTDP.
20. Winnipeg - Bobby Brink, RW, USHL - About as confident in a pick as I am with this draft.
21. Pittsburgh - Arthur Kaliyev, LW, OHL.
22. LA Kings - Raphaël Lavoie, RW, QMJHL.
23. NY Islanders - Samuel Poulin, LW, QMJHL.
24. Ottawa - trades 32 and the highest of their 2020 second rounders to Nashville for 24 - Philip Tomasino, C, OHL.
25. Washington - Lassi Thomson, D, WHL.
26. Calgary - Connor McMichael, C, OHL.
27. Tampa Bay - Ilya Nikolaev, C, MHL.
28. Carolina - Ryan Suzuki, C, OHL.
29. Anaheim - Brayen Tracey, LW, WHL.
30. Boston - Alex Vlasic, D, USNTDP.
31. Buffalo - Tobias Bjornfot, D, SuperElit
 

MatchesMalone

Formerly Innocent Bystander
Aug 29, 2010
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Honestly, I'm pretty damn satisfied with the results. Strangely enough, there were three occasions where I predicted a player at the right pick but to the wrong team - every time I predicted a trade.

For a mock draft supposed to be primarily based on GM tendencies, it almost seems those shouldn't count, but I think I have to give myself credit for assessing player in the correct range.

My previous best mock draft was 2015, where I had six correct picks total.

This year, if you count the wrong team picks, I had a total of eight picks correct: Hughes and Kaako one and two, Turcotte at five, Zegras at nine, Newhook at 16, Tomasino at 24, Suzuki at 28 and Tracey at 29.

I also had Byram, Podkolzin, Knight, McMichael within one spot, Söderstrom, Heinola, Poulin within two spots, and Dach, Cozens, Harley within three.
 

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