A look at which players generate the most quality shots (5v5 only)

[Not My Tempo]

It is a lot of garbage to create a fancy statistic. Many of these advanced hockey stats are trying too hard to mimic baseball which is a very different sport.

Naw not really, it’s just using the public data the NHL provides and then using a form of logistic regression to create a model. This model is then used to assign a probability of becoming a goal to each shot given the information the NHL provides on the shots.

 

[Lshap]

Well, Jeff Petry is playing better than most #1 on a lot of team right now... points wise, advanced stats wise, etc.
Same goes for Draisaitl.

Petry is a top D in the league and truly underrated
( Mcdavid doesnt have the shot Draisaitl has and also Mcdavid assists him more)

As someone who's watched Petry closely, I'm not surprised. He's at the top of his game and looks in control of every aspect. Smart, physical, fast, defensively solid, with a killer slapshot. He's also Montreal's best D on the PP, which of course isn't part of this chart.

I won't declare him a superstar based on one stat, but he's among the league's best RHDs.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Somehow I just knew even before coming into the thread that a Montreal player would be at the top of this list.

 

[Lshap]

Somehow I just knew even before coming into the thread that a Montreal player would be at the top of this list.

Dude, don't waste your gift of precognition on a hockey team. There are stock markets, political elections, and next year's Academy Awards to conquer.

 

[gtrower]

Well this doesn’t make any sense. I’ve been told Ovi has evolved into a PP specialist who doesn’t generate 5v5 anymore.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Let’s see him face a decent team prior to crowning him the king.

Has there been an easier schedule, hell, an October, than the Oilers are facing?

NYI? Vancouver is over .500...so are the Rangers
unless, of course, you think the Oilers are better than every team they've faced thus it's a good sign..

won't be long until you've run out of excuses

 

[HugginThePost]

NYI? Vancouver is over .500...so are the Rangers
unless, of course, you think the Oilers are better than every team they've faced thus it's a good sign..

won't be long until you've run out of excuses

So you’re going to tell me you think Drai is the best player in the NHL?

Lofty expectations......

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

So you’re going to tell me you think Drai is the best player in the NHL?

Lofty expectations......

no, but it's funny how there is always excuses surrounding Draisaitl

first it was "he's only good cause he plays with McDavid!"
now, it's "the schedule is soft!"

 

[ToDavid]

NYI? Vancouver is over .500...so are the Rangers
unless, of course, you think the Oilers are better than every team they've faced thus it's a good sign..

won't be long until you've run out of excuses

I'm not going to argue about the Oilers because 5-1 is a good start whether it's the hardest or easiest schedule in the league. But being at or over 0.500 a week into the season doesn't make those good teams.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Draisaitl just proving over and over again he's nothing more than a product of McDavid.

Legit question: They split them up this year, right? 'Cause they're both good enough to carry their own lines, even with plugs, so I'd imagine it's been in the team's best interest to do so.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Legit question: They split them up this year, right? 'Cause they're both good enough to carry their own lines, even with plugs, so I'd imagine it's been in the team's best interest to do so.

At first, yes, but McDavid was struggling since he just came back from injury so they put Draisaitl on his line to reignite him. Draisaitl has been our best player so far this year. He has 9 even-strength points compared to McDavid's 5.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I'm not going to argue about the Oilers because 5-1 is a good start whether it's the hardest or easiest schedule in the league. But being at or over 0.500 a week into the season doesn't make those good teams.

we can't say they're bad teams either based on a small sample size

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Draisaitl has been the best player in the NHL this year.

Maybe finally deserves to be on his own line again. Unless they want to keep inflating McDavids numbers over making the playoffs

 

[snipes]

Maybe finally deserves to be on his own line again. Unless they want to keep inflating McDavids numbers over making the playoffs

Lol yeah McDavid and Draisaitl are the problem with the Chia era Oilers roster.

 

[HugginThePost]

no, but it's funny how there is always excuses surrounding Draisaitl

first it was "he's only good cause he plays with McDavid!"
now, it's "the schedule is soft!"

Believe it or not......

.......it’s both.

 

[NyQuil]

Whenever I see an advanced stat like this and notice a guy like Jeff Petry is 3rd in the league and McDavid isn’t even in the top 20, I’m more curious about the stat than the players on the list.

West coast bias.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Expected goals for is a bad stat because it assumes all players have the same caliber of shot.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

So you’re going to tell me you think Drai is the best player in the NHL?

Lofty expectations......

Yes

 

[1989]

Serious question:

In these stats, what's the difference between a muffin shot taken from the slot knuckleballing its way past the goalie vs a Crosby-esque tip-in from the side of the net? Are they valued the same?

 

[olli]

Draisaitl> Mcdavid confirmed

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Expected goals for is a bad stat because it assumes all players have the same caliber of shot.

No it doesn’t.

 

[ToDavid]

we can't say they're bad teams either based on a small sample size

We can say they're bad teams based on the past performance of the players on their roster. It's not a perfect science but it's the best predictor at this point.

 

[Midnight Judges]

No it doesn’t.

According to hockey reference it does.

X goals for is defined as follows:

"▼ -- 'Expected Goals For' given where shots came from, for and against, while this player was on the ice at even strength.
It's based on where the shots are coming from, compared to the league-wide shooting percentage for that shot location."

So Alex Ovechkin is not expected to score any more goals than any random scrub player relative to average shot distance and location, meaning, xGoals for is deliberately agnostic regarding the quality and caliber of a player's shot.

 

[Puckluck13]

These stats clearly show the linemate of said player is the one generating the chances to anyone with half a brain and who watches hockey. Monahan isn't on that list without guadreau.

 

[Riddum]

The Habs aren't as bad as I thought they were gonna be