a look at the top 20 signings

Discussion in 'By The Numbers' started by Dankmemes187, Nov 18, 2020.

  1. Dankmemes187 Registered User

    Nov 18, 2020
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    here is a list of the highest paid players signed this year. I wanted to see how much less players were signing for. here are the results of my investigation.

    Top 10 UFA
    pietrangelo predicted 8.3 actual 8.8
    hall predicted 5.7 actual 8
    krug predicted 7.4 actual 6.5
    Brodie predicted 5.4 actual 5.0
    Dadonov predicted 5.9 actual 5
    Tanev predicted 3.6 actual 4.5
    Toffoli predicted 5.6 actual 4.3
    Schultz predicted 3.0 actual 4.0
    Shattenkirk predicted 4.7 actual 3.9
    Barrie predicted 4.4 actual 3.8

    top 10 RFA
    Manthaa predicted 6.5 actual 5.7
    Reinhart predicted 5.3 actual 5.2
    pulock predicted 5.8 actual 5
    burakovsky predicted 3.6 actual 4.9
    Deangelo predicted 4.2 actual 4.8
    Labanc predicted 3.8 actual 4.7
    Strome predicted 4.9 actual 4.5
    Toews predicted 4.8 actual 4.1
    Montour predicted 3.9 actual 3.9
    Kubalik predicted 4.4 actual 3.7

    so are contracts cheaper? the short answer is no, the long answer is they're're shorter, which in turn lowers the AAV

    without considering predicted term the difference between the predicted and actual salarys is 0nly 900k less over 20 player's or about 50k cheaper each contract. the real difference is that the contracts are much shorter than usual, about 2 years shorter than predicted. if they were longer the AAV would rise too along with contract length

    so how much is 2 years AAV worth? that depends on UFA/RFA status, the age of the player and the quality of the player.

    these 10 ufa's term on average were 2 years shorter than expected. players like hall 2 years is 1.4m, shattenkirk 500k . but the quality of the players will likely decline with age, meaning the UFA'S are really losing out.

    for rfa's its a lot more complicated, there contracts too were also 2 years shorter on average. and for the majority of these player's more years means higher AAV. but realistly alot of these young rfa's will improve, meaning more money down the road, so its kind of a wash.
    Bear of Bad News likes this.
  2. ted2019 Know your History

    Oct 3, 2008
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    What method did you use to predict these salaries?
  3. Arthur Morgan Registered User

    Jul 6, 2016
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    Hall not even at 6M projected. that didn't raise any red flags with you?
    TomasHertlsRooster likes this.

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