Salary Cap: CBJ and the salary cap

Long Live Lyle

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I think it’s likely Dubi will either play out his contract as a -$6 million 4th liner in Columbus or retire before he serves out the term. I can’t imagine any front office wanting him even at 50% unless they are having a problem meeting the cap floor.

No way he retires before this contract is up. He’s not gonna leave $11.5M or $5.8M (after next season) on the table. I agree he won’t get traded. Maybe a team like Ottawa would be willing to take him on for his leadership and we’d only have to throw in a mid-round pick or something but I also think he has a NTC. Although if the two options are accept a trade to Ottawa or get bought out and lose out on $4M total (1/3 of remaining contract value), maybe he’d take the trade. But I also think he’d likely be able to sign somewhere for around a total of $4M over the next two years, so combine that with a buyout and he breaks even, plus gets to have a little more of a say on where he plays.
 

Cyclones Rock

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The argument for Dubinsky is that his net cost is$1.95 million per year over the next two years if he is kept:

Brandon Dubinsky Buyout Details

Cost Calculations

BUYOUT DATEBASE SALARY REMAININGS.BONUS REMAININGYEARS REMAININGBUYOUT LENGTHAGEBUYOUT RATIOTOTAL COSTTOTAL SAVINGSANNUAL COST
Jun 15, 2019$11,700,000$024332/3$7,800,000$3,900,000$1,950,000
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Cap Hit Calculations

SEASONBASE SALARYINITIAL CAP HITACTUAL COSTSAVINGSFINAL CAP HIT
2019-20$5,850,000$5,850,000$1,950,000$3,900,000$1,950,000
2020-21$5,850,000$5,850,000$1,950,000$3,900,000$1,950,000
2021-22$0$0$1,950,000-$1,950,000$1,950,000
2022-23$0$0$1,950,000-$1,950,000$1,950,000
TOTAL$11,700,000$11,700,000$7,800,000$3,900,000$7,800,000
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If he isn't kept next year, the team sucks up $1.95 million extra against the cap for 2 additional years.

I'm guessing that he stays at this point. While his name isn't mentioned in the leadership core anymore (from what I've seen), Torts likes him and the team just swept the #1 seed. It's hard to make an argument that he's killing the team. However, if somehow Bread, Duchene and Bob can be signed and the additional cap room is needed, it's adios time for Dubi.

With Wennberg's buyout at 1/3rd his value, the same arguments can't be made. He's not worth $3.3 million per year (net cost factoring in buyout savings) nor a roster spot.
Alexander Wennberg Buyout Details

Cost Calculations

BUYOUT DATEBASE SALARY REMAININGS.BONUS REMAININGYEARS REMAININGBUYOUT LENGTHAGEBUYOUT RATIOTOTAL COSTTOTAL SAVINGSANNUAL COST
Jun 15, 2019$21,400,000$048241/3$7,133,333$14,266,667$891,667
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Cap Hit Calculations

SEASONBASE SALARYINITIAL CAP HITACTUAL COSTSAVINGSFINAL CAP HIT
2019-20$5,350,000$4,900,000$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
2020-21$5,350,000$4,900,000$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
2021-22$5,350,000$4,900,000$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
2022-23$5,350,000$4,900,000$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
2023-24$0$0$891,667-$891,667$891,667
2024-25$0$0$891,667-$891,667$891,667
2025-26$0$0$891,667-$891,667$891,667
2026-27$0$0$891,667-$891,667$891,667
TOTAL$21,400,000$19,600,000$7,133,333$14,266,667$5,333,333
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Time to let that soft bum go regardless of any other scenario. A 1/3rd buyout is a godsend for him. The CBJ would be foolish not to take advantage of it.
 
Last edited:

Long Live Lyle

Registered User
Feb 10, 2019
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The argument for Dubinsky is that his net cost is$1.95 million per year over the next two years if he is kept:

Brandon Dubinsky Buyout Details

Cost Calculations

BUYOUT DATEBASE SALARY REMAININGS.BONUS REMAININGYEARS REMAININGBUYOUT LENGTHAGEBUYOUT RATIOTOTAL COSTTOTAL SAVINGSANNUAL COST
Jun 15, 2019$11,700,000$024332/3$7,800,000$3,900,000$1,950,000
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Cap Hit Calculations

SEASONBASE SALARYINITIAL CAP HITACTUAL COSTSAVINGSFINAL CAP HIT
2019-20$5,850,000$5,850,000$1,950,000$3,900,000$1,950,000
2020-21$5,850,000$5,850,000$1,950,000$3,900,000$1,950,000
2021-22$0$0$1,950,000-$1,950,000$1,950,000
2022-23$0$0$1,950,000-$1,950,000$1,950,000
TOTAL$11,700,000$11,700,000$7,800,000$3,900,000$7,800,000
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
If he isn't kept next year, the team sucks up $1.95 million extra against the cap for 2 additional years.

I'm guessing that he stays at this point. While his name isn't mentioned in the leadership core anymore (from what I've seen), Torts likes him and the team just swept the #1 seed. It's hard to make an argument that he's killing the team.

With Wennberg's buyout at 1/3rd his value, the same arguments can't be made. He's not worth $3.3 million per year (net cost factoring in buyout savings) nor a roster spot.

Time to let that soft bum go.

Dubinsky’s net cost is $3.9M per year to keep him over the next two years, not $1.9M. Still, I agree that I’m not sure those savings the next two years would be worth keeping him on the books until 2023. And you’re right, he does seem to have a trusted role. I think that role could be filled by someone earning far less than $3.9M per year, but a role nonetheless.
 

Cyclones Rock

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Dubinsky’s net cost is $3.9M per year to keep him over the next two years, not $1.9M. Still, I agree that I’m not sure those savings the next two years would be worth keeping him on the books until 2023. And you’re right, he does seem to have a trusted role. I think that role could be filled by someone earning far less than $3.9M per year, but a role nonetheless.

How is his net cost $3.9m per year? You have to reduce it for the cost of the buyout years when they'll be paying him when he's not playing.

Trust me. I won't be broken hearted if he hits the road after this season:)
 
Nov 13, 2006
11,520
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Ohio
No way he retires before this contract is up. He’s not gonna leave $11.5M or $5.8M (after next season) on the table. I agree he won’t get traded. Maybe a team like Ottawa would be willing to take him on for his leadership and we’d only have to throw in a mid-round pick or something but I also think he has a NTC. Although if the two options are accept a trade to Ottawa or get bought out and lose out on $4M total (1/3 of remaining contract value), maybe he’d take the trade. But I also think he’d likely be able to sign somewhere for around a total of $4M over the next two years, so combine that with a buyout and he breaks even, plus gets to have a little more of a say on where he plays.

I'm not claiming he will or won't retire. I'm saying that:
a.) he's not likely to be traded because he's too expensive, even at half price unless someone has a cap floor issue.
b.) he is an effective if way overpaid 4th line center.

Additionally, none of us know his personal situation. I hope he has put enough cash away that he is set for life. If so, he may decide to walk away before his contract expires. Maybe he no longer wants the aches and pains. Maybe he doesn't want to be "that guy" that stays too long because he doesn't know when to walk away.

Like mentioned above, his play doesn't hurt the team. He is a pretty good faceoff man (57% win rate) especially in the D zone and he is also an effective penalty killer. He does a number of things well. He just isn't an offensive player and doesn't rack up many points.
 

EspenK

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Sep 25, 2011
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I tend to agree re: Dubinsky, barring any unforeseen deals with one of the Bobs or another high powered UFA.

After next year he may have to go to get the necessary RFA's extended.
 

Long Live Lyle

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How is his net cost $3.9m per year? You have to reduce it for the cost of the buyout years when they'll be paying him when he's not playing.

Trust me. I won't be broken hearted if he hits the road after this season:)

His salary/cap hit is $5.8M the next two seasons. His buyout cost/cap hit would be $1.9M the next two years if he’s bought out. 5.8-1.9=3.9.
 

Long Live Lyle

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I'm not claiming he will or won't retire. I'm saying that:
a.) he's not likely to be traded because he's too expensive, even at half price unless someone has a cap floor issue.
b.) he is an effective if way overpaid 4th line center.

Additionally, none of us know his personal situation. I hope he has put enough cash away that he is set for life. If so, he may decide to walk away before his contract expires. Maybe he no longer wants the aches and pains. Maybe he doesn't want to be "that guy" that stays too long because he doesn't know when to walk away.

Like mentioned above, his play doesn't hurt the team. He is a pretty good faceoff man (57% win rate) especially in the D zone and he is also an effective penalty killer. He does a number of things well. He just isn't an offensive player and doesn't rack up many points.

Agree with you on a. And it’s certainly possible you’re right that he could walk away I guess, but really don’t think it’s likely. Maybe if his contract was front-loaded but I’m pretty sure his salary is the same for all six years of it. This was his first “big” contract, too. Capfriendly has his career earnings at a little under $45M. Obviously, none of us would complain about making that money, but he’d still be giving up over 20% career earnings if he retires after this year and over 10% if he retires after next year versus just playing out the contract.

Finally, I think you overrate his overall ability. The advanced stats (which do need to be taken with a grain of salt) are pretty hard on Dubinsky, including defensively. Someone (I think majormajor) laid out stats that having Dubinsky out there defensively is the equivalent of facing Kucherov offensively. He is good at face-offs. He also kills penalties (though I’m not sure how well). He does have intangibles that can’t be measured (hence, “intangible”). At the same time, his 5-on-5 play after the puck leaves the linesman’s hand is below average for a 4th liner at both ends of the ice and absolutely brutal for a guy making $6M.
 

Long Live Lyle

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His buyout cap hit would be over 4 years. So it's $5.8-($1.95*2)=$1.9 per year

I might not have been clear in how I worded it. I meant his net cost to the CBJ (i.e., how we much don’t save) would be $3.9M the next two years if we keep him. If we keep him, we pay him $5.8M and have that as the cap hit each of the next two years. If we buy him out, we pay him only $1.9M and have that as the cap hit each of the next two years. Meaning we save $3.9M in dollars and cap space each of the next two years if we buy him out.

The obvious downside is it extends out his payment/cap hit past the next two seasons for two additional seasons.
 

Cyclones Rock

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I might not have been clear in how I worded it. I meant his net cost to the CBJ (i.e., how we much don’t save) would be $3.9M the next two years if we keep him. If we keep him, we pay him $5.8M and have that as the cap hit each of the next two years. If we buy him out, we pay him only $1.9M and have that as the cap hit each of the next two years. Meaning we save $3.9M in dollars and cap space the next two years if we buy him out.

The obvious downside is it extends out his payment/cap hit past the next two seasons for two additional seasons.

It can be looked at in several ways, I guess. I think the important concept for me is that I have to look at the potential buyout player at 1/3rd of their stated contract value and see if I think he's worth that much.
 

Long Live Lyle

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It can be looked at in several ways, I guess. I think the important concept for me is that I have to look at the potential buyout player at 1/3rd of their stated contract value and see if I think he's worth that much.

Sure, I agree with that. I think some are playing up “Wennberg vs. Dubinsky” buyouts as if we can only do one or the other. Just bc Dubinsky’s is 2/3 and not 1/3 doesn’t mean it wouldn’t make sense.
 

koteka

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I see a scenario where we don’t sign any of the free agents, keep Dubinsky, and take the last year of Ryan Callahan’s contract (plus some good picks and/or prospects) from the Lightning. Most posters on here would probably be pissed, but it sets up the team better for 2 or 3 years out when Anderson, Bjork, PLD, and Zach are making $25+ million and we resign Jones for whatever he’s going to resign for (closer to $10 million than $8 million).

I agree that we can’t afford signing more than 1 free agent, and I think Duchene at $8 mill for 8 years is going to hurt in the last few years of the contract. Duchene without a NTC and exposed to Seattle might make sense. I still think he is going to Nashville.
 

EspenK

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I see a scenario where we don’t sign any of the free agents, keep Dubinsky, and take the last year of Ryan Callahan’s contract (plus some good picks and/or prospects) from the Lightning. Most posters on here would probably be pissed, but it sets up the team better for 2 or 3 years out when Anderson, Bjork, PLD, and Zach are making $25+ million and we resign Jones for whatever he’s going to resign for (closer to $10 million than $8 million).

I agree that we can’t afford signing more than 1 free agent, and I think Duchene at $8 mill for 8 years is going to hurt in the last few years of the contract. Duchene without a NTC and exposed to Seattle might make sense. I still think he is going to Nashville.

No way does the Callahan scenario make any sense. If Duchene signs NFW he is exposed to Seattle unless he completely poops the bed the next 2 seasons.
 

koteka

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Callahan makes sense if Tampa Bay is willing to pay enough. Which depends on how much they have to pay Point. Remember that Torts loved him in New York. He and Dubi could platoon. We would have the cap room for 1 season.

Duchene resigned and exposed is like signing Duchene for 2 years at $8 million. Sounds pretty good to me. The 2020 first given up to Ottawa would be like sending a first to Seattle for not taking any other assets (assuming they take Duchene).

So we basically could get 2 years of Duchene plus not lose any young talent in the expansion draft for the cost of a 1st.
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
Sep 27, 2017
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Finally, I think you overrate his overall ability. The advanced stats (which do need to be taken with a grain of salt) are pretty hard on Dubinsky, including defensively. Someone (I think majormajor) laid out stats that having Dubinsky out there defensively is the equivalent of facing Kucherov offensively. He is good at face-offs. He also kills penalties (though I’m not sure how well). He does have intangibles that can’t be measured (hence, “intangible”)..

How many grains?? And, regular season Kucherov or playoff Kucherov??


At the same time, his 5-on-5 play after the puck leaves the linesman’s hand is below average for a 4th liner at both ends of the ice and absolutely brutal for a guy making $6M.

This is simply false. The "advanced stats" are bogus. IMO

Buy out Dzingel.
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
Sep 27, 2017
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Duchene resigned and exposed is like signing Duchene for 2 years at $8 million. Sounds pretty good to me. The 2020 first given up to Ottawa would be like sending a first to Seattle for not taking any other assets (assuming they take Duchene).

So we basically could get 2 years of Duchene plus not lose any young talent in the expansion draft for the cost of a 1st.

Crazy talk, imo.

Duchene would be the best player Seattle would get in the draft.
 

majormajor

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Jun 23, 2018
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We should (want to) keep all 3 of Savard, Jenner and Murray.

Bye-bye, Bobby, Wenny, and Dzingel.

We have younger players, arguably BETTER players, who can fill in for much cheaper cap hits.

The scenario you are talking about doesn't include Wenny or Dzingel. It's clear to me that neither fits here. Bob on the other hand I would offer $8m x 8 for, if not more.

Obviously we would want to keep all of Savard, Jenner, and Murray. Feel free to post your spreadsheet, as I have and EspenK has, and show us how you would pull it off. It's going to require more than just removing Bob from the equation, and if you are keeping Dubinsky, as you seem to want to do, then you are going to need to find another $4m somewhere on top of that.
 

majormajor

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Finally, I think you overrate his overall ability. The advanced stats (which do need to be taken with a grain of salt) are pretty hard on Dubinsky, including defensively. Someone (I think majormajor) laid out stats that having Dubinsky out there defensively is the equivalent of facing Kucherov offensively. He is good at face-offs. He also kills penalties (though I’m not sure how well). He does have intangibles that can’t be measured (hence, “intangible”). At the same time, his 5-on-5 play after the puck leaves the linesman’s hand is below average for a 4th liner at both ends of the ice and absolutely brutal for a guy making $6M.

I'd just point out that whatever made Dubinsky that bad (and he was horrific, at 5v5 he was on the ice for 12 goals for and 36 goals against, an astounding figure for a 4th liner playing limited minutes) he's gotten it out of his game in the playoffs. This is a different player, he's in the right place on the ice again and playing good hockey. I'm glad to have him now. But then again this team barely made the playoffs, I'm not inclined to keep a player on the roster who turns it on when he feels like it.

Like mentioned above, his play doesn't hurt the team.

See above, the whole case for cutting Dubi is that he does hurt the team, a lot.
 

majormajor

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Here is a latest look. I'm sure with some changing of assumptions it can be shown how it can be done. I just don't think it is a wise choice to do so. I reduced my guesstimates for all the guys who need new deals in the next 2 years. I kept Jones at 9 which I think will be around market for a guy of his abilities. It doesn't assume breakouts by the prospects not already here, or for that matter even bridge deals. which will probably add some dollars to the total.

Have at it.

2019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20232023-2024
Jenner3.753.753.7511
Duchene8.58.58.58.58.5
Foligno5.55.53.53.51
ELC11111
Atkinson5.855.855.855.855.85
Hannikainen11111
Panarin10.510.510.510.510.5
Dzingel/ELC44111
Anderson1.855555
Bjorkstrand2.52.5555
Texier11444
PLD0.8946666
Nash/ELC2.752.75111
Total Forwards49.09457.3556.153.3550.85
Defensemen
Murray55555
Jones5.45.45.499
Savard4.254.25111
Kukan0.7251.51.51.52
Werenski66666
Nutivaara2.72.72.73.53.5
Gavrikov14444
Total Defense25.07528.8525.63030.5
Goalies55777
Buyouts
Hartnell1.25
Dubi1.951.951.951.95
tyutin1.458
Total Buyouts4.6581.951.951.950
Total83.82793.1590.6592.388.35
Cap @ 3% inc81.88584.3415586.871889.4779592.16229
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Thanks for posting this. A few observations:

I don't see why a guy like Dzingel is even included here. Isn't your point to show the extreme difficulty of signing Duchene and Panarin at the same time? When do we ever say, "yeah we'd like to sign you Matty, but now that we've signed Dzingel we just can't fit you in"? There's a pretty simple solution there.

You end up paying $7m per on goalies. If we're going to go that high, then why not just keep the Vezina winner we have? He won't cost much more than that. To me we're either keeping Bob or we're gambling on cheap guys, we're not paying up for anyone but Bob.

That's all low hanging fruit. Beyond that, Nash is movable, as are all the D. If Gavrikov is so good that he merits making $4m per after only one season of experience, then that's a ludicrous 6 or 7 top 4 D-men, and there's absolutely no space for a guy like Peeke coming up. It wouldn't be a great hardship to cut someone.
 

koteka

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Jan 1, 2017
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Crazy talk, imo.

Duchene would be the best player Seattle would get in the draft.

But that would be a 30 year old Duchene with 6 years left on his contract. Meanwhile we get 2 years of peak production Duchene and don’t have to worry about 34 and 35 year old Duchene who I imagine would look a lot like Dubi - a high priced face off specialist.
 

Long Live Lyle

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Feb 10, 2019
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Thanks for posting this. A few observations:

I don't see why a guy like Dzingel is even included here. Isn't your point to show the extreme difficulty of signing Duchene and Panarin at the same time? When do we ever say, "yeah we'd like to sign you Matty, but now that we've signed Dzingel we just can't fit you in"? There's a pretty simple solution there.

You end up paying $7m per on goalies. If we're going to go that high, then why not just keep the Vezina winner we have? He won't cost much more than that. To me we're either keeping Bob or we're gambling on cheap guys, we're not paying up for anyone but Bob.

That's all low hanging fruit. Beyond that, Nash is movable, as are all the D. If Gavrikov is so good that he merits making $4m per after only one season of experience, then that's a ludicrous 6 or 7 top 4 D-men, and there's absolutely no space for a guy like Peeke coming up. It wouldn't be a great hardship to cut someone.

Exactly. I appreciate EspenK’s post and him taking the time to lay it all out. To his credit, it’s a little tighter in 2 years than I realized. But it can still be done. Don’t re-sign Dzingel. Maybe you have to trade Savard and/or one of “the core” (e.g., Bjorkstrand, Anderson, Murray) (in which case you’d probably get something pretty good in return, either some good picks/prospects or a slightly worse player but on cheaper terms). But Panarin and Duchene can be done while still keeping nearly every important piece.

Worst case, if you have to trade both Savard and an additional player (and I’m still not sure if you’d have to), you could roll a roster of something like (and you wouldn’t have to do this until the 2020-21 season as PLD’s still on his ELC next year):

Panarin - PLD - Atkinson
Texier - Duchene - (guy returned in Bjork/Savard trade, a player currently in Cle, Bemstrom, Foudy...)
Foligno - Jenner - Anderson
Fourth line any combo of Nash, Robinson, Stenlund, Hanni, Sedlak, guys in Cleveland, etc.

Z - Jones
Murray - Nuti
Kukan - Gavrikov
Harrington/Peeke/Carlsson to round things out.

Elvis
Korpi
 
Nov 13, 2006
11,520
1,397
Ohio
Exactly. I appreciate EspenK’s post and him taking the time to lay it all out. To his credit, it’s a little tighter in 2 years than I realized. But it can still be done. Don’t re-sign Dzingel. Maybe you have to trade Savard and/or one of “the core” (e.g., Bjorkstrand, Anderson, Murray) (in which case you’d probably get something pretty good in return, either some good picks/prospects or a slightly worse player but on cheaper terms). But Panarin and Duchene can be done while still keeping nearly every important piece.

Worst case, if you have to trade both Savard and an additional player (and I’m still not sure if you’d have to), you could roll a roster of something like (and you wouldn’t have to do this until the 2020-21 season as PLD’s still on his ELC next year):

I love Murray but if I had to choose between Murray and Savard, I know who I'm keeping. Same vs. Andy.
 

Multigrain

Registered User
Sep 9, 2018
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I would walk from Dzingel. I don't think he is worth 5M. He had great linemates also played with Stone, Duchene and Karlsson when he was rolling. I sometimes questioned his hockey IQ not sure if this is the team for him.
 

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