Salary Cap: CBJ and the salary cap

majormajor

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Jun 23, 2018
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for dubi I meant like camp dump there has been worst case before like Garrison or Orpik. in the orpick trade they got a 2nd for him and grubner just for him to be bought out by colorado. I know columbus wont get a 2nd but if packaged with korpi for future considerations I can see it if a gm like korpi. what montreal got to take on mason buyout is probably closer to whats possible here but it's still somewhat possible I mean.

This is exactly what I'm thinking, though of course it would cost a lot more than just Korpi.

To Team X: Dubi + Korpi + picks/prospects

T CBJ: basically nothing

Team X then buys out Dubi.
 

pled

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This is exactly what I'm thinking, though of course it would cost a lot more than just Korpi.

To Team X: Dubi + Korpi + picks/prospects

T CBJ: basically nothing

Team X then buys out Dubi.
if jarmo can do this AND sign the top kids Im okay with giving more picks and prospect. the team is young dubi is literally the oldest at 32 lol we need prospect but not 50 of them. even tho we have no picks lol
 

majormajor

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if jarmo can do this AND sign the top kids Im okay with giving more picks and prospect. the team is young dubi is literally the oldest at 32 lol we need prospect but not 50 of them. even tho we have no picks lol

From my other exercise (see the chart above for 2020-21), we are going to be a bit overloaded with roster players, with no room for Bemstrom, Foudy, Peeke, etc... and be hard up against the cap. So we'll be moving a couple roster players for futures sometime between now and then. That should return a couple more first rounders, maybe more.
 

EspenK

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Sep 25, 2011
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To put the discussion of Bread & Duchene both re-signing here in the proper thread, imo, it ain't going to happen. Too many guys needing contracts in the next few years (starting this year) that need to be locked up for long term both to keep the cap manageable down the road and to avoid pissing them off a la Joey.

To get both I figure its a minimum of $18mm per. Barring major's scenarios where we dump roster guys for picks & prospects and slot in unproven guys like Foudy, Bemstrom & TFW it just doesn't work.

One or the other. I'm guessing it will be Duchene.
 

Long Live Lyle

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To put the discussion of Bread & Duchene both re-signing here in the proper thread, imo, it ain't going to happen. Too many guys needing contracts in the next few years (starting this year) that need to be locked up for long term both to keep the cap manageable down the road and to avoid pissing them off a la Joey.

To get both I figure its a minimum of $18mm per. Barring major's scenarios where we dump roster guys for picks & prospects and slot in unproven guys like Foudy, Bemstrom & TFW it just doesn't work.

One or the other. I'm guessing it will be Duchene.

I think it can be done. Bobrovsky is off the books this year and likely Wennberg, too. Tyutin’s buyout will be off the books and Hartnell’s will only be $1.25 mill (as opposed to $3 mill this year.) Nash, Foligno, Dubinsky and Savard will be off the books in two years, before Bjorkstrand, Texier and Jones need new deals and the cap will only continue to rise. (I think Foligno will re-sign but at a paycut. Possible Dubinsky will be bought out and extend his cap hit past two years, but if so it’ll be at less than $2 million, so $4 million in savings. Would suck to lose Savard, but such is the reality of the cap world. It’d be worth it to keep Bread and Duchene. And with the current young D plus Gavrikov, Peeke, Carlsson... there’s only so much room in the inn.)

That’s an extra ~$31 million in cap space (~$29 million if Dubi is bought out) without taking into account a rising cap. Bread and Duchene will get raises, but likely only about a combined $6-7 million more per year. So still have about $25 million less in salary then than now (factoring in Bread/Duchene’s new deals but before factoring in other new contracts.) We currently have about $3.5 million in cap space so you’d be looking at $28.5 million to round out the roster/re-sign guys (and that’s if the cap doesn’t rise, which it will).
 
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blahblah

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Nice fantasy.

Don't take this in the wrong way, but I tend to think you are being a bit over dramatic here. It's about priorities. If the opportunity presents itself for Panarin and Duchene to sign, the GM will likely work to make that happen. That might mean trading of a Savard or a Jenner. It might involve a trade or buyout of Wennberg. There is also Dzingel it the mix, but I've looked over the roster and I can see multiple paths to keep this team mostly intact.

There are ways to make this work. We wouldn't be first team that has had two forwards making that much money and make it work. A couple of those teams have won multiple Cups.

Yes, at some point you might lose a player you don't want to. The key is to make it's the player you can most live without.

The deeper we make it into the playoffs, players are likely going to think longer about leaving. I tend to think Bob is gone even if we win the Cup.
 
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EspenK

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Don't take this in the wrong way, but I tend to think you are being a bit over dramatic here. It's about priorities. If the opportunity presents itself for Panarin and Duchene to sign, the GM will likely work to make that happen. That might mean trading of a Savard or a Jenner. It might involve a trade or buyout of Wennberg. There is also Dzingel it the mix, but I've looked over the roster and I can see multiple paths to keep this team mostly intact.

There are ways to make this work. We wouldn't be first team that has had two forwards making that much money and make it work. A couple of those teams have won multiple Cups.

Yes, at some point you might lose a player you don't want to. The key is to make it's the player you can most live without.

The deeper we make it into the playoffs, players are likely going to think longer about leaving. I tend to think Bob is gone even if we win the Cup.

Keep thinking like that. The core is young and can stay intact for years but not if both Bread & Duchene are signed. Go put a spreadsheet together with realistic numbers for PLD, Andy, Zach, Bjorkstrand, Murray and Jones (yes I know that is a few years down the road) along with guys like Texier, Gavrilov and assume one of the goalies is successful. and I defy you to keep the team intact and competitive. A big factor here is that almost all of the young core are going to need new deals in the next few years. Unless Jarmo bridges a lot of them the numbers don't work and if you do lowball bridge them you wind up with Joey situations.
 

Long Live Lyle

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Nice fantasy.

Not sure how it’s fantasy. I laid out eight things that will or likely will happen by the end of two seasons from now. Seven of those eight are certainties. Not fantasy. Not guessing. Certainty. Only one that’s unclear/only a likelihood/we actually need to do something proactive (Wennberg buyout).

1) Bobrovsky’s $7.5M contract will be off the books. (Starting next year.)
2) Tyutin’s $1.5M buyout will be off the books. (Starting in 2020-21.)
3) Hartnell’s $3M buyout will be off the books. (Reducing to $1.25M next season, gone completely at end of 2020-21.)
4) Dubinsky’s $6M contract will be off the books. (Or reduced to only $2M.)
5) Nash’s $2.75M will be off the books.
6) Foligno’s $5.5M contract will be off the books.
7) Savard’s $4.25M will be off the books.

Those are all true statements. That’s not conjecture, or working up some crazy trade/scenario. (I’d keep Savard if we have cap room, this hypothetical is just about the notion we sign Panarin and Duchene. Likewise, give Foligno a 50% pay cut. Doubt he’d get much more elsewhere (and he won’t sign elsewhere unless it’s much more). If he does, good for him. Enjoy the final fat contract.) Bobrovsky and Savard replacements would be a drop off, but money will be saved. Foligno would be literally no drop off (besides aging) with money saved. Dubinsky can be replaced by someone SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper at no downgrade. Nash can also be replaced by someone cheaper at no downgrade. Hartnell and Tyutin don’t have to be replaced at all; that’s just money/cap space that becomes available.

Now that that reality is out of the way, let’s look at the lone absolutely impossible fantasy: Wennberg removal. Could require a trade. Or a buyout. Either way, you’re saving either $5M or $4M. Replacing Wennberg would be no downgrade (since he doesn’t play) at SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper cost.

Final total savings: $35.5 million to replace a starting goalie ($5 million), two 4th liners ($3.5 million total), a healthy scratch/depth ($1 million), a 3/4 D (we’d prob just sign a 5/6 D for $2 million if we have Zach, Seth, Murray, Nuti, Gavrikov, Peeke...) and a 3rd lime W ($3.5 million). That’s $15 million total, so just saved $20.5 million at those spots from where we’re at today. Again, we also already have a little cap space and the cap will rise, potentially significantly by the time 2022 hits.

Yeah, you may have to trade one or two of those guys you mentioned and replace with ELC/RFA contracts. No, you wouldn’t have to completely gut the core.
 

blahblah

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Keep thinking like that. The core is young and can stay intact for years but not if both Bread & Duchene are signed.

I did the math a long time ago. It can work, I've already illustrated ways we can make it work. People are obsessed with "keeping everyone". The issue isn't so much this off-season, it's next. After next season, it's far more manageable.

The tricky part this off-season would be how to deal with Werenski's contract. He's a prime candidate for a bridge deal. The first real decision, if the chance came to keep both of them, is what to do with Ryan Murray. If you trade Murray, you're probably setting at around 4 million, without a cap increase. If you keep Murray, you are going to need to move someone with some salary.

If you buy out or trade Wennberg, this gets far more managable.

The following season things get sketchy with Anderson and PLD. That's where you have to make a hard decision. At some point we're probably not going to run with 3 top six RW's, as an example.

I think we also have an expansion draft coming up, that should lead to some active trading around the league and who knows if we can move a less-than-desirable contract.
 
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blahblah

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I give up.

Probably because you are trying to take something that involves a lot of moving parts and over-simplify it. This isn't the equivalency of the 1040-EZ form. You also have to remember that who you are willing to lose and/or keep probably don't reflect the front offices.

As I said, this is pretty pointless to even talk about until the draft. I don't know why we have to obsess about something when the dynamics could change dramatically in one day.
 

EspenK

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In my scenario I have 6 guys at about a million or so, the ELC max. If we sign both I'll probably need 8 and have to lose at least 2 roster guys That's a lot of youngins for a team that wants to compete year in and year out.

I think that this all an exercise in fantasy because I'm 99% certain Bread isn't going to re-sign.

After watching star power (Ovie, Crosby,Malkin, Kuch, Stamkos, et al) make early exits I think I prefer a Bread-less team with Duchene and the rest of the guys who make up the core. Lots of guys can be fairly paid and the team remains competitive. Only question is who, if anyone, emerge as the goalie of the future?
 

blahblah

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In my scenario I have 6 guys at about a million or so, the ELC max. If we sign both I'll probably need 8 and have to lose at least 2 roster guys

I might go back, at some point, and look at your numbers. Having said that, currently we are 28 million under the cap for next season, not even bothering to clean up some of the post season crap on the roster and any cap increase.

I see no scenario in which we lose "at least 2 roster players" even if things stay static.
 

EspenK

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Next year is not the problem. Looking out 2-3 years is where it gets tight.
 

Iron Balls McGinty

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Next year is not the problem. Looking out 2-3 years is where it gets tight.
Maybe a bit of a gamble but if the cap keeps going up, it will probably look something like this:

19-20 - 82
20-21 - 85
21-22 - 88 - Seattle enters the league
22-23 - 92.5 - increased revenues from Seattle get factored in.

It will be about 3 million a year with the year after Seattle being about 4.5/5 similar to the cap jump from the vegas impact.
 

blahblah

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Next year is not the problem. Looking out 2-3 years is where it gets tight.

As I said in my previous posts. Again, I don't see it being as bad as what you lay out. Also I'm not sure we want to pay for three stop six RW's down the line either. After next off-season, it becomes very manageable.

Decisions would need to be made. For one, we really want to try and avoid having forward play on their off wing. This is probably Foligno's last contract with us. At least one of any significant value. It's best to start considering him a non-factor in the top six soon. We need to figure out what we want to do with Murray. Savard might be a movable option, we have a lot of players coming through on defense.
 

Long Live Lyle

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In my scenario I have 6 guys at about a million or so, the ELC max. If we sign both I'll probably need 8 and have to lose at least 2 roster guys That's a lot of youngins for a team that wants to compete year in and year out.

I think that this all an exercise in fantasy because I'm 99% certain Bread isn't going to re-sign.

After watching star power (Ovie, Crosby,Malkin, Kuch, Stamkos, et al) make early exits I think I prefer a Bread-less team with Duchene and the rest of the guys who make up the core. Lots of guys can be fairly paid and the team remains competitive. Only question is who, if anyone, emerge as the goalie of the future?

I don’t think Bread (or Bob) re-sign either. That wasn’t the hypothetical though. It also wasn’t even about what we should do. It’s fair to be concerned about signing a guy like Duchene to an 8-year deal at $8M+ if we have Panarin and vice versa (although, if we don’t re-sign either Bob or Bread, we absolutely should. It’s fair to question it particularly if we re-sign Panarin.)

The hypothetical was about if it’s possible to keep Bread, Duchene, and a core of roughly Jones, Z (under team control the next 4 years after this one, that’s gonna knock his value down a bit), Gavrikov (who we haven’t even seen play yet, btw), Murray, Texier (will be under team control for the next 6 years), PLD (under team control the next 5 years), Bjorkstrand, Anderson, Cam (already locked in at a great deal), and Elvis (who we also haven’t even see play yet). And the answer is yes it is. Maybe we have to trade one of them (could naturally lose one in the expansion draft anyway). If you were to lose Bjorkstrand, for example, you’d still have a top-six of Panarin, Duchene, Atkinson, Texier, PLD, Anderson.

That can be done. Should it? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe a slightly more expensive overall 3rd line is better than one of Duchene or Panarin. Regardless, would probably be in our best interest to make sure we don’t have a 4th line making $13M like the one we have now. A 4th line of guys like Sedlak-Hannikainen-Robinson who make that type of money would serve adequately.
 

majormajor

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Jun 23, 2018
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I give up.

Can you show us your full numbers, in the "Duchene and Panarin but not Bob" scenario?

We did this like a week ago in this very thread, in the "Duchene and Panarin AND Bob" scenario and I only had to cut two players in 2020 (I believe Savard and Jenner/Murray) to keep absolutely everyone else that we wanted. Take Bob and his $6-$8m out of the equation and it gets a lot easier, no?
 

EspenK

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Here is a latest look. I'm sure with some changing of assumptions it can be shown how it can be done. I just don't think it is a wise choice to do so. I reduced my guesstimates for all the guys who need new deals in the next 2 years. I kept Jones at 9 which I think will be around market for a guy of his abilities. It doesn't assume breakouts by the prospects not already here, or for that matter even bridge deals. which will probably add some dollars to the total.

Have at it.

2019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20232023-2024
Jenner3.753.753.7511
Duchene8.58.58.58.58.5
Foligno5.55.53.53.51
ELC11111
Atkinson5.855.855.855.855.85
Hannikainen11111
Panarin10.510.510.510.510.5
Dzingel/ELC44111
Anderson1.855555
Bjorkstrand2.52.5555
Texier11444
PLD0.8946666
Nash/ELC2.752.75111
Total Forwards49.09457.3556.153.3550.85
Defensemen
Murray55555
Jones5.45.45.499
Savard4.254.25111
Kukan0.7251.51.51.52
Werenski66666
Nutivaara2.72.72.73.53.5
Gavrikov14444
Total Defense25.07528.8525.63030.5
Goalies55777
Buyouts
Hartnell1.25
Dubi1.951.951.951.95
tyutin1.458
Total Buyouts4.6581.951.951.950
Total83.82793.1590.6592.388.35
Cap @ 3% inc81.88584.3415586.871889.4779592.16229
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
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We did this like a week ago in this very thread, in the "Duchene and Panarin AND Bob" scenario and I only had to cut two players in 2020 (I believe Savard and Jenner/Murray) to keep absolutely everyone else that we wanted. Take Bob and his $6-$8m out of the equation and it gets a lot easier, no?

We should (want to) keep all 3 of Savard, Jenner and Murray.

Bye-bye, Bobby, Wenny, and Dzingel.

We have younger players, arguably BETTER players, who can fill in for much cheaper cap hits.
 
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I can see what you're saying. Perhaps Dubi and an asset for something or Dubi for a bad contract coming our way.
I think it’s likely Dubi will either play out his contract as a -$6 million 4th liner in Columbus or retire before he serves out the term. I can’t imagine any front office wanting him even at 50% unless they are having a problem meeting the cap floor.
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
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Here's for all the "trade, buyout, dump Dubinsky" group.



He's not going anywhere. It would've happened back during "Vegas Nights".

I know how the team can and will clear up 4.9 cap dollars though.
 

Long Live Lyle

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Here's for all the "trade, buyout, dump Dubinsky" group.



He's not going anywhere. It would've happened back during "Vegas Nights".

I know how the team can and will clear up 4.9 cap dollars though.


Dubinsky’s 7th goal and 15th point of the season on a double deflection doesn’t prove he should stay. You can get get Dubinsky’s production from a guy making $4.9 million less than he does, too. Just because Wennberg should go doesn’t mean Dubinsky shouldn’t. It’s not a zero-sum game. Clearing out both Dubi and Wennberg would result in $11 mill in cap space (more like $9M if it’s a Dubi buyout). That’s better than just the $5M from Wennberg.

Dubinsky might make more sense to keep, as Wennberg’s buyout would cost less. Wennberg also could possibly be traded without retention, even for a low pick (as opposed to Dubinsky who has negative trade value). While we’d be much better served to have the $4M in additional cap space than Dubinsky on the roster, it’s also possible that the team would rather not extend Dubi on the books past 2 more years, so choose not to buy him out.

That also doesn’t necessarily mean he shouldn’t be in the lineup right now (tonight) given he’s for sure on the roster. I’m talking about future years for cap compliance and to make sure we have the best possible roster we can have. It’s a sunk cost that he’s on the roster now, so if he’s one of your best 12 forwards (which I’m still not sure I agree) he should play.
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
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Dubinsky has been "dragging" this team to the playoffs as a HUGE part of the leadership core, on and off the ice, for the vast majority of the time he's been here. I don't see it stopping anytime before his current contract is up, and like Foligno, I would be GLAD and NOT SUPRISED to see him sign a smaller contract after his current deal is up.

Dubinsky > Wennberg as a player.... cant argue facts.
 

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