Friedman: A gm said he would bet the Isles offer sheet TO [Mod Warning in OP - READ]

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Jul 10, 2003
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KW
So you are the spokesman for everybody who watches the Leafs? I know that Marner is a Canadian posterboy but that doesnt mean he deserve more in his pocket!

Im pretty sure that many europeans thinks difference ! Outproduce Nylander by 8 points but also made 27 p in pp, Nylander outscored him es. Nylander didnt play with AM the whole season, Am was injured and Nylander was also moved from him. I dont think Marners linemates the majority of the season was bad offensively, a + 30 scorer back to back. The line bleed in defense though, a hint that Marner was - 1 and Nylander + 10 says a lot.

Nylander was clearly the better one the first half and Marner had a stronger second half(points), I think Nylander has the more complete game of them but i cant separate them from what they have achieved so far in their careers!

The Leafs fanbase follows the wind, before cristmas , Marner was the odd man out and now its Nylander after a couple of strong months by Marner,

But with the JT signing Nylander+ is now a tradebait for a no 1 D!

Marner had a very strong second half, and was excellent in the playoffs. In this case, it's not accurate to say the Leafs fanbase follows in the wind. Nylander, being a year older and more physically developed than Marner, should be the one pulling ahead of Marner. but it's the other way around.

Anyhow, at this point, there is a strong possibility that Marner's contract doesn't get done til next summer, so it may not even be possible for Nylander to make the demand of matching Marner's contract.

HF Poll: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/mitch-marner-vs-william-nylander.2465093/
 
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redwings25

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Jul 28, 2016
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you would offer sheet each one different but make all the offer sheets end the year the players become ufa so the players would know theres a bigger payday coming and they can go where they want,the year they hit ufa. mathews would be max money for 4 years nyander would be 7.8 till hes a ufa. players love freedom and becoming a ufa 7 years into your career sets you up for a huge payday in the future. toronto can match all they want but would lose bigtime in the long run when mathews went to az the day his contract is up. toronto would prolly be better off taking the picks.
 

wretched34

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Dec 16, 2013
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Gauthier to the Islanders!

Perhaps the threat isn't as immediate as you presume, and an Offer sheet could be made next off seasons, when Matthews, Marner, Kapanen, Leivo and Carrick are all RFA...
Leafs currently have $47.9M on the books for 2019/20 season, based on $79.5M cap hit, they have $31.5M in cap space.

That $47.9M includes 3 Defenseman, 6 Forwards and 1 Goalie. So they have a significant amount of contracts to sign, including some big ones:
Gardiner is coming off a $4.05M deal as a UFA.
Matthews is RFA
Marner is RFA
Kapanen is RFA
Leivo is RFA
Carrick is RFA

Say Gardiner gets a little bump to $5M
Matthews could easily outplay Tavares this season and be looking at a $12+M deal
Marner could be in the $7-$8 Range
Kapanenand & Leivo if they have good seasons could see $2-$3M
Carrick could be in that $2-$3 range

So, that'ss $30M on the low end.

Nylander is gonna eat up more than $1.5M with his new contract.
They'll still need 1 or 2 defenseman and 1 or 2 forwards as well as a goalie.

Leafs will need to have Matthews, Marner and Carrick locked up prior to July 1, 2019 if they don't want the Isles breaking their budget or stealing a good young player. They'll also need to make some pretty shrewd moves at the deadline, or get some of the young guys to sign big time discounts to stay competitive.
 

mapleleafs34

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Apr 7, 2011
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you would offer sheet each one different but make all the offer sheets end the year the players become ufa so the players would know theres a bigger payday coming and they can go where they want,the year they hit ufa. mathews would be max money for 4 years nyander would be 7.8 till hes a ufa. players love freedom and becoming a ufa 7 years into your career sets you up for a huge payday in the future. toronto can match all they want but would lose bigtime in the long run when mathews went to az the day his contract is up. toronto would prolly be better off taking the picks.

What kind of GM would give up 4 1st round picks for only 4 years of a star player? Pretty sure every GM would do 7 years if they are giving up that kind of haul.

Also, what if they get career ending injuries or struggle with their new team? That's why players tend to go for term more often than not.
 
Jul 10, 2003
13,937
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KW
Perhaps the threat isn't as immediate as you presume, and an Offer sheet could be made next off seasons, when Matthews, Marner, Kapanen, Leivo and Carrick are all RFA...
Leafs currently have $47.9M on the books for 2019/20 season, based on $79.5M cap hit, they have $31.5M in cap space.

That $47.9M includes 3 Defenseman, 6 Forwards and 1 Goalie. So they have a significant amount of contracts to sign, including some big ones:
Gardiner is coming off a $4.05M deal as a UFA.
Matthews is RFA
Marner is RFA
Kapanen is RFA
Leivo is RFA
Carrick is RFA

Say Gardiner gets a little bump to $5M
Matthews could easily outplay Tavares this season and be looking at a $12+M deal
Marner could be in the $7-$8 Range
Kapanenand & Leivo if they have good seasons could see $2-$3M
Carrick could be in that $2-$3 range

So, that'ss $30M on the low end.

Nylander is gonna eat up more than $1.5M with his new contract.
They'll still need 1 or 2 defenseman and 1 or 2 forwards as well as a goalie.

Leafs will need to have Matthews, Marner and Carrick locked up prior to July 1, 2019 if they don't want the Isles breaking their budget or stealing a good young player. They'll also need to make some pretty shrewd moves at the deadline, or get some of the young guys to sign big time discounts to stay competitive.

Gardiner won't be re-signed imho.

Isles are welcome to steal Carrick.

Marleau will need to moved in the final year of his contract as well.

That leaves us with space to sign Matthews and Marner (19ish combined), and we can even afford another Hainsey type signing on D.

All this assuming the cap stays at 80m.
 

I am I

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Feb 18, 2010
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Do your math again. As it sits, if you pay Nylander $8 million this season, you have $5.7 million in cap space. Next year you have 6 contracts potential coming off the books, assuming you’re keeping Matthews and Marner, totaling about $11 million. Brings us to $16.7 million. That would leave you with a 13 man signed roster. That’s 10 roster spots to fill. Just for fun, let’s say you fill them all internally, averaging $800,000 a piece, which you won’t. That’s now $8.7 million in cap space. Then there’s Horton’s $5.3 million LTIR. That brings us to $14 million, which should chew up the bonus pool pretty quick. Even if you off load Martin, it’s still only $16.25. That’s a terrible place to be in, assuming Matthews will take $11 million of that, leaving you with 7 forwards and 2 defensemen that aren’t rookies. Not really sure where your numbers come from.

My numbers are from cap friendly and they work, I didn't say they were pretty.

Ok Martin is gone so there is $31.5M next season. Nylander gets 8 and Matthews and Marner 19. Horton is 5.3 putting the Leafs at $9.8M available.

But the missing spots are one third line winger (left it think) the fourth line, two third pair defensemen, a backup goalie and the pressbox. Dermott gets Gardiner's spot in the top four.

Available for the winger spots: Johnsson, Grundström, Engvall, Marchment, Bracco others.

Centers: Pär Lingholm, Moore (yeah after the big three Leafs center depth sucks)

Defense: Liljegren (R), Ozhiganov (R), Carrick (R), Rosén (L), Borgman (L), Nielson (L).

Backup: Sparks.

Note no Kapanen, he may play himself into too large a contract.

Also no cap increase included.

It is doable. Leafs have a crap ton of winger prospects and a bunch are ready. Also third pair defensemen coming out of their ears.

You original post said $6M for Nylander. An extra $2M makes this a lot easier. A $3M cap increase also would make it easier.

Though is the OS is $8M x 7 then Leafs probably take 4 first round picks. Anyway.
 

HarrisonFord

President of the Drew Doughty Fan Club
Jul 20, 2011
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I guess it needs to be repeated... the most logical targets of an offer sheet are Matthews and Marner next year.

But, if the Isles go get back their 2019 2nd round pick back from the Red Wings they could inflict some pain on the Leafs with a $8.1M AAV offer sheet to Nylander. Leafs would likely match rather than take a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick, but it would be expensive.
So they have to trade Detroit for their 2nd back (aka give up a decent asset), and then offer Nylander an overpriced offer sheet. I doubt it.

Not to mention that Nylander would have to sign it. And why would he do that? Go to the rudderless Isles when he can stay in Toronto and compete for a cup every year
 

TheBeastCoast

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Mar 23, 2011
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So they have to trade Detroit for their 2nd back (aka give up a decent asset), and then offer Nylander an overpriced offer sheet. I doubt it.

Not to mention that Nylander would have to sign it. And why would he do that? Go to the rudderless Isles when he can stay in Toronto and compete for a cup every year
Not to mention they would also need to get their 3rd back from Edmonton.
 

Daz28

Registered User
Nov 1, 2010
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Why is it a "revenge" move? An offer sheet is just as legit as a UFA signing. There could be repercussions, but there prob is from prying a UFA away as well. I wish I knew why GM's didn't use them more often. I guess they just save each other the headache of dealing with it. Then again, why keep it in the rules then???
 

Ziggdiezan

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Apr 10, 2015
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I doubt Matthews will sign for more than Tavares if he gets an 7+ year deal.

Tavares is a UFA in his prime getting his last big contract while Matthews is getting his first contract after his ELC.

I could see Tavares being an upper limit for the Leafs cap structure
 
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Leaf Fans

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Sep 29, 2017
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you would offer sheet each one different but make all the offer sheets end the year the players become ufa so the players would know theres a bigger payday coming and they can go where they want,the year they hit ufa. mathews would be max money for 4 years nyander would be 7.8 till hes a ufa. players love freedom and becoming a ufa 7 years into your career sets you up for a huge payday in the future. toronto can match all they want but would lose bigtime in the long run when mathews went to az the day his contract is up. toronto would prolly be better off taking the picks.
Why they can match and then trade him if they felt like they couldn't keep him. We don't even know if Matthews would go to Arizona; not all Toronto area players immediately went to Toronto upon reaching UFA.
 

7even

Offered and lost
Feb 1, 2012
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Everyone appreciates how insanely unrealistic this is right? Even ignoring the context an absurdly small number of players are lost via this route.
 

DonM

The Industrial Revolution and its consequences
May 18, 2015
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I doubt Matthews will sign for more than Tavares if he gets an 7+ year deal.

Tavares is a UFA in his prime getting his last big contract while Matthews is getting his first contract after his ELC.

I could see Tavares being an upper limit for the Leafs cap structure

11 million isn't Tavares' market value though, as it's well known that he was offered 13 by another team. Matthews isn't going to get more than Tavares' market value, but with a great year this year and another increase in the cap he could possibly get as much or more than Tavares actually signed for.
 

Nervousbreakdown

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Jul 3, 2017
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What kind of GM would give up 4 1st round picks for only 4 years of a star player? Pretty sure every GM would do 7 years if they are giving up that kind of haul.

Also, what if they get career ending injuries or struggle with their new team? That's why players tend to go for term more often than not.
For the record, offer sheet cap hits are calculated at a max of 5 years. If you offer a guy 5yx7m its a 7 million cap hit. If you offer 7yx7m the total value of the contract gets added up then divided by 5 so that 7m cap hit becomes 9.8.

Why is it a "revenge" move? An offer sheet is just as legit as a UFA signing. There could be repercussions, but there prob is from prying a UFA away as well. I wish I knew why GM's didn't use them more often. I guess they just save each other the headache of dealing with it. Then again, why keep it in the rules then???

One reason GMs don't use offer sheets is the ripple effect it potentially creates. If GM 1 offer sheets a player from another team he now could be subject to open season from any other GM. Also it would inflate the value on second contracts, the NHL salary cap system basically exists in a way where super stars get market value or near market value and teams can't really avoid this so the question becomes how do you pay your depth, because if you pay them market value as well you cant ice a whole roster, so the value on teams comes from second and 3rd liners earning well below value Kadri for example is getting 4.5 for the next 4 and if he continues to score 30 goals a year thats pretty insane value. Buy you need to hit multiple home runs in that regard and one way to do that is draft and develop well enough that you can surround your core stars with cheap depth players who are also really good, when they need raises they get moved out for picks or prospects and you get another crack at filling that spot.

Anyways I went off on a bit of tangent there but basically if GMs started using offer sheets RFAs would have more leverage, if they had more leverage it would hurt all teams in the long run. So thats a big part of why Offer Sheets are just a figment of our imaginations.
 

72hockey guy

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Nov 24, 2017
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Why would the Isles blame the leafs..? They did nothing wrong. They did what they are supposed to do. Improve their team.

they didn't lie to the Isles fans and management alike. They didn't ask ownership not to trade him. They didn't say he wanted to be like his uncle every day for 9 years telling the story that his uncle played for one team and one team only. I don't blame the Maple Leafs one bit.

the only people I blame are the woman who played Jezebel and the man who couldn't keep his word. As far as I'm concerned the 2 of them deserve each other I actually feel sorry for leaf fans. Those 2 bring a truckload of bad Karma with them. The whole LA recruitment was a sham. Dallas. San Jose. Boston were used too
 
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Sypher04

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Jan 20, 2011
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Why would the Isles blame the leafs..? They did nothing wrong. They did what they are supposed to do. Improve their team.

they didn't lie to the Isles fans and management alike. They didn't ask ownership not to trade him. They didn't say he wanted to be like his uncle every day for 9 years telling the story that his uncle played for one team and one team only. I don't blame the Maple Leafs one bit.

the only people I blame are the woman who played Jezebel and the man who couldn't keep his word. As far as I'm concerned the 2 of them deserve each other I actually feel sorry for leaf fans. Those 2 bring a truckload of bad Karma with them. The whole LA recruitment was a sham. Dallas. San Jose. Boston were used too

There's no evidence that Tavares ever asked management not to trade him. By his own words he was told by Snow that they had no plans to move him. Very different. It was a calculated risk on Snow's part

As far as I'm concerned everything Tavares said to Islanders & Isles fans was genuine and there's really nothing that can be said to suggest otherwise.
 
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The Hanging Jowl

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Apr 2, 2017
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Mats explicitly said he didn't want to go to another organization mid-season.

He then went on to sign with Vancouver mid-season.

Mats had a great Toronto Maple Leafs career but I'll never forget.

Yeah, I respect Mats and thought he was a great Leaf overall but didn't like how he left. I don't think liking him overall while disliking the way he left are mutually exclusive feelings.
 

A1LeafNation

Obsession beats talent everytime!!
Oct 17, 2010
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1 Friedman is full of shit and so is the so called GM.

2. Lamoriello is crazy and will help TO out of cap trouble and then Offersheet a Leaf.

There is no other option.
 

beowulf

Not a nice guy.
Jan 29, 2005
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I'll believe it when I see it. That being said, if Marner and Matthews get to the point of not having been signed and being RFAs I could see a team putting pressure on the Leafs by making an offer to one of them.
 

Sypher04

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Jan 20, 2011
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I'll believe it when I see it. That being said, if Marner and Matthews get to the point of not having been signed and being RFAs I could see a team putting pressure on the Leafs by making an offer to one of them.

Doubtful to me. What goes around, comes around, and GMs seem to be quite content to collectively pretend offer sheets don't exist.
 
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