9th Baseball ATD Round 3 NL St. Louis @ Montreal

Pwnasaurus

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St. Louis Cardinals


Manager: John McGraw

Position Players
|
Pitchers
|
Lineup

C: Gabby Hartnett (R) | SP1: Satchel Paige (R) | 1. Ty Cobb (L)
1B: Harmon Killebrew (R) | SP2: Jim Palmer (R) | 2. Wade Boggs (L)
2B: Nap Lajoie (R) | SP3: Lefty Gomez (L) | 3. Nap Lajoie (R)
3B: Wade Boggs (L) | SP4: Billy Pierce (L) | 4. Harmon Killebrew (R)
SS: Lou Boudreau (R) | SP5: Bob Lemon (R) | 5. Reggie Jackson (L)
LF: Al Simmons (R) | Long1: Burleigh Grimes (R) | 6. Al Simmons (R)
CF: Ty Cobb (L) | Mid1: Al Hrabosky (L) | 7. Gabby Hartnett (R)
RF: Reggie Jackson (L) | Mid2: Hilton Smith (R) | 8. Lou Boudreau (R)
Bench: David Ortiz - 1B (L) | Short1: John Hiller (L) | 9. Pitcher's Spot
Bench: Buck Ewing - C/RF (R) | Short2: Wade Davis (R)
Bench: Minnie Minoso - LF/3B (R) | Closer: Sparky Lyle (L)
Bench: Richie Ashburn - CF (L) |
Bench: Bobby Wallace - SS (R) |
Bench: Red Schoendienst - 2B (S) |

Montreal Royals

Manager: Connie Mack

Position Players
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Pitchers
|
Lineup

C: Josh Gibson (R) | SP1: Nolan Ryan (R) | 1. Tim Raines (S)
1B: Willie McCovey (L) | SP2: Eddie Plank (L) | 2. Roberto Alomar (S)
2B: Roberto Alomar (S) | SP3: Don Drysdale (R) | 3. Alex Rodriguez (R)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (R) | SP4: Kevin Brown (R) | 4. Josh Gibson (R)
SS: Ozzie Smith (S) | SP5: Jim Kaat (L) | 5. Willie McCovey (L)
LF: Tim Raines (S) | | 6. Jim Edmonds (L)
CF: Jim Edmonds (L) | Mid1: Jim Brewer (L) | 7. Andre Dawson (R)
RF: Andre Dawson (R) | Mid2: Rick Aguilera (R) | 8. Ozzie Smith (S)
Bench: OF Kirby Puckett (R) | Short1: Mike Marshall (R) | 9. Pitcher's Spot
Bench: OF Bernie Williams (S) | Short2: Ron Perranoski (L)
Bench: OF Dave Winfield (R) | Closer: John Wetteland (R)
Bench: C Darrell Porter (L) |
Bench: 1B Roger Connor (L) |
Bench: 2B Bobby Doerr (R) |
Bench: 3B Ray Dandridge (R) |
 

NJDevs26

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Mar 21, 2007
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I felt like Montreal would struggle a bit in the regular season with the ten man staff (and I'm still meh about his pen) and not enough spots to use his great bench but it obviously wasn't a factor then and won't be an issue now with the extra pen arm. Montreal's lineup 1-8 is the most intimidating in the NL for sure though Cardinals are deceptively good with the OBP machines 1-3 and a solid 4-6 power combo with no easy outs in his lineup either. I'd probably give the edge to Cardinals pitching wise but not sure if it'll be by enough to overcome the Royals lineup.
 

Pwnasaurus

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I'd probably give the edge to Cardinals pitching wise but not sure if it'll be by enough to overcome the Royals lineup.

It's a tough call, but I'd point out that the Royals #1 starter issued the most walks in MLB history both in a career and he averaged 5 walks per start. If you love the OBP% of Cobb, Boggs and Lajoie, it's got to boost that aspect further...
 

Say Hey Kid

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It's a tough call, but I'd point out that the Royals #1 starter issued the most walks in MLB history...
He's top 5 all time in IP. That face scares me. ;)
 

le_sean

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Well Ryan is also the all-time leader in lowest number of hits allowed per 9 innings.

He's also the strikeout king, vs. Reggie Jackon, who has been the most struck out hitter of all time, and Killebrew who is 30th all-time. So I feel pretty confident with Nolan in this series.

Also, I raised this point in the other thread about Ryan raising his level of play in the playoffs. His BB9 is 2.1 in postseason play.
 

le_sean

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I felt like Montreal would struggle a bit in the regular season with the ten man staff (and I'm still meh about his pen) and not enough spots to use his great bench but it obviously wasn't a factor then and won't be an issue now with the extra pen arm. Montreal's lineup 1-8 is the most intimidating in the NL for sure though Cardinals are deceptively good with the OBP machines 1-3 and a solid 4-6 power combo with no easy outs in his lineup either. I'd probably give the edge to Cardinals pitching wise but not sure if it'll be by enough to overcome the Royals lineup.

Well to be fair to my bullpen, my closer has a better ERA+ and more saves in less appearances. Plus obviously the World Series MVP.

Wade Davis has been a reliever for 3 seasons. Is it really fair to compare him to Mike Marshall who was a very good reliever for far longer?

Perranoski is not far off from Hiller. In fact he was slightly tougher on lefties (.282 OBP vs. .309).
 

Pwnasaurus

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Well Ryan is also the all-time leader in lowest number of hits allowed per 9 innings.

But it was offset by the number of baserunners he did allow via the walk, how the running game was in full bloom when he pitched because he didn't hold runners and how many extra bases he allowed via the wild pitch. He could have been one of the greatest pitchers ever, maybe the greatest, but he refused to "pitch". Bill James has a great article on this phenomenon.

We look back fondly on Ryan because of his strikeouts and his velocity and his no hitters but often that was largely offset by the warts of other areas of his game. His Hits/9 suggest he should have Pedro in the steroid era type of FIPs but Ryan's was typically over 3 despite the eye popping H/9.

Bill James said:
he was not a great pitcher because he never compromised, which means that he never adjusted. He was, in a sense, a perpetual rookie. He was out there to strike the hitter out—period, even when he was 44 years old. He could be behind the number eight hitter 2-0 with the bases empty, and in his mind he was still working on a strikeout. The concept of “let him hit it and see what happens” absolutely wasn’t there for him.
He won a huge number of games, true (324), but he lost almost as many. He holds the career record for strikeouts by a wide margin—and the record for walks by an even wider margin. He holds the career record for Wild Pitches. He did nothing at all to stop the running game, allowing 757 stolen bases in his career, which is almost certainly a record. . .anyway he led the league in stolen bases allowed eight times. He committed 90 errors in his career, with a career fielding percentage of .895. His positive numbers will stagger you, but his negative numbers will knock you out.

le_sean said:
Also, I raised this point in the other thread about Ryan raising his level of play in the playoffs. His BB9 is 2.1 in postseason play.

7 starts? It's an ok sample size but non-optimal, however in his defense the bulk of his career was spent pitching for lots of non-contending teams.
 
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le_sean

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7 starts? It's an ok sample size but non-optimal, however in his defense the bulk of his career was spent pitching for lots of non-contending teams.

Well to be fair Lefty Gomez only has 7 postseason starts with 5 World Series championships. So if you want to negate them, we can ;)
 

Pwnasaurus

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Well to be fair Lefty Gomez only has 7 postseason starts with 5 World Series championships. So if you want to negate them, we can ;)

There was no ALCS, but I'll trade SP3 vs SP1. :)

In all seriousness though, it's a very even matchup, I expect it to go 7. Good luck sir.
 

Winger for Hire

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I've often wondered how good Bill James' actual scouting and talent eye is. I know he's a very intelligent man when is comes to trends, statistical models, and such, but when it comes to the Negro Leaguers, he doesn't have the plethora of information to run through is models and algorithms. (I hate that every other post I make seems to make it seem like I do nothing but bash the Negro Leagues. I really do have a ton of respect and admiration for those guys)

I'm firmly in the camp of melding the two schools of thought together, SABR and old school scouting. It's the best way to use both. I just never really knew (or searched too hard to find out) how good James is without the numbers.
 

le_sean

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I do wonder how much exaggeration there is with the Negro Leagues. All we have are inconsistent scorekeeping and tales from other players. How good are these guys?

Is it somewhat like putting a player such as Getzlaf in the AHL? Clearly a good player, certainly far above his peers, but against his own competition (ie MLB) is he elite? I really don't know.

On the other hand you have Satchel Paige that did well in the MLB in his 40s.
 

Say Hey Kid

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Rank Player (yrs, age) Strikeouts Throws
1. Nolan Ryan+ (27) 5714 R
2. Randy Johnson+ (22) 4875 L
3. Roger Clemens (24) 4672 R
4. Steve Carlton+ (24) 4136 L
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SO_p_career.shtml

The other thing that kills me is that James is an expert on Sabremetrics, but he has never pitched or coached pitching so he's criticizing one of the goat, most successful pitchers for something that he literally knows nothing about, pitching adjustments. :shakehead
 

Pwnasaurus

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The other thing that kills me is that James is an expert on Sabremetrics, but he has never pitched or coached pitching so he's criticizing one of the goat, most successful pitchers for something that he literally knows nothing about, pitching adjustments. :shakehead

Where would you rank Nolan Ryan among SPs all-time?
 

Pwnasaurus

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Outside of Sabremetrics, in areas such as baseball history Bill James has no wisdom. He thinks Oscar Charleston is the 4th goat. :laugh: http://baseballevolution.com/top100s/billjames100.html SABR doesn't even have him as one of the top 3 Greatest Negro League Players.

If his view on Charleston is much more favorable than SABR's, doesn't that mean he doesn't always align with SABR and follows his own viewpoint? If you own his BB abstract, he goes into a great amount of detail as to why he ranks Charleston where he did.
 

UL Washington

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I don't have Ryan in my top 20.

Great pitcher but not someone I would want to have to count on to pitch a life and death game. Way too inconsistent. He has an equal chance of throwing a 2-hit shutout as he does walking 5, hitting 2 and being out of the game by the 4th inning.

I think Ryan is a good #2 option for a team that may have weak defense since he's just going to try to get by striking everyone out and doesn't let a lot of hitters get the ball in play.
 

le_sean

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Ryan is definitely a Top 20 pitcher.

And I'd say in this league it's important to have a pitcher that is aggressive against these types of bats. Someone not afraid to throw hard inside or high heat. The middle of these lineups are too good to just have someone that tries to pick corners.
 

Pwnasaurus

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Josh Gibson was able to outlast his former mate and lead the Royals to a nailbiter of a win in a series that went the full 7 games.

Congrats Le_Sean, great team. Good luck in the finals.
 

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