9th Baseball ATD Round 1 NL Toronto @ St. Louis

[Pwnasaurus]

Toronto Blue Jays

Manager: Joe McCarthy

Position Players​

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Pitchers​

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Lineup​

C: Ivan Rodriguez (R) | SP1: Curt Schilling (R) | 1. Lou Brock (L)
1B: Eddie Murray (S) | SP2: Roy Hallady (R) | 2. Chipper Jones (S)
2B: Bill Mazeroski (R) | SP3: Madison Bumgarner (L) | 3. Stan Musial (L)
3B: Chipper Jones (S) | SP4: Andy Pettitte (L) | 4. Mickey Mantle (S)
SS: Robin Young (R) | SP5: Vida Blue (L) | 5. Eddie Murray (S)
LF: Lou Brock (L) | Long1: Firpo Marberry (R) | 6. Robin Yount (R)
CF: Mickey Mantle (S) | Mid1: Dan Plesac (L) | 7. Ivan Rodriguez (R)
Bench: Edgar Martinez - 3B/DH (R) | Mid2: Roy Face (R) | 8. Bill Mazeroski (R)
Bench: Luis Aparicio - SS (R) | Short1: Mike Stanton (L) | 9. Pitcher's Spot
Bench: Juan Gonzalez - OF (R) | Short2: Jeff Reardon (R)
Bench: Cesar Cedeno - OF (R) | Closer: Mariano Rivera (R)
Bench: Victor Martinez C/1st (L) |
Bench: Jose Altuve - 2B (R) |

St. Louis Cardinals

Manager: John McGraw

Position Players​

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Pitchers​

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Lineup​

C: Gabby Hartnett (R) | SP1: Satchel Paige (R) | 1. Ty Cobb (L)
1B: Harmon Killebrew (R) | SP2: Jim Palmer (R) | 2. Wade Boggs (L)
2B: Nap Lajoie (R) | SP3: Lefty Gomez (L) | 3. Nap Lajoie (R)
3B: Wade Boggs (L) | SP4: Billy Pierce (L) | 4. Harmon Killebrew (R)
SS: Lou Boudreau (R) | SP5: Bob Lemon (R) | 5. Reggie Jackson (L)
LF: Al Simmons (R) | Long1: Burleigh Grimes (R) | 6. Al Simmons (R)
CF: Ty Cobb (L) | Mid1: Al Hrabosky (L) | 7. Gabby Hartnett (R)
RF: Reggie Jackson (L) | Mid2: Hilton Smith (R) | 8. Lou Boudreau (R)
Bench: David Ortiz - 1B (L) | Short1: John Hiller (L) | 9. Pitcher's Spot
Bench: Buck Ewing - C/RF (R) | Short2: Wade Davis (R)
Bench: Minnie Minoso - LF/3B (R) | Closer: Sparky Lyle (L)
Bench: Richie Ashburn - CF (L) |
Bench: Bobby Wallace - SS (R) |
Bench: Red Schoendienst - 2B (S) |

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[bluesfan94]

Analysis:

Blue Jays have a legendary postseason rotation and I do give them a bump for that reason. That said, the Cardinals' rotation, anchored with Satchel Paige, is nothing to sneeze at. Even given Schilling's heroics, I don't know how well he matches up against Paige in those games.

Turning now to the infield. The Jays have a good infield and the advantage at a couple positions. The Cardinals have a great infield and the advantage at a couple positions. I lean Cardinals here because I think they're closer in their disadvantageous positions than the Jays.

The Jays outfield, on the other hand is superb. They'd do well to reinclude Musial in their Position Player list - I had to go to the lineup and find him. Jays might have the best outfield in this draft; I'd have to look again to say that with certainty. That said, I don't dislike the Cardinals outfield. Cobb is obviously Cobb. Jackson is a playoff performer too, who will get a boost similarly to the Jays' rotation.

Both bullpens are very solid. I lean, and I mean lean, towards the Blue Jays.

Ultimately, the question for me comes down to can the Blue Jays overcome the deficit with regards to the rotation. Their offense might be able to do it and their postseason pitchers might be able to shut down the Cardinals' bats enough to win the series.

I'm open for arguments both ways.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

If you are weighting postseason performance as a deciding factor, Palmer has a 2.61 career postseason ERA in 124 innings. Schilling's is 2.23 in 133 innings. I'd say that's pretty comparable and that's my #2 vs a #1.

Gomez' ERA all in World series play obviously, is 2.86 in 50 world series innings which is more innings just in world series play than Halladay threw his entire career in the postseason. Bumgarner has been incredible in the WC games and the WS but has had some postseason bomb outs as well just like most pitchers because sample size and variance.

Paige pitched plenty of WS games, they just happened to not be televised and his socks were clean (I assume). I would also go so far as to say I have the best pitcher and position player in this series.

 

[bluesfan94]

Musial > Cobb and nothing you say will convince me otherwise.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

Hahaha. I can't even.....they'll revoke my card.

I'm also not sure it's widely known how good Al Simmons was. He's arguably the 5th best LFer of all time.

 

[Winger for Hire]

This matchup has the best 1st bats off the bench in ATD history.

Edgar and Ortiz would be high end starters had they had not had chronic injuries/could put a glove on without dropping it.

 

[bluesfan94]

Hahaha. I can't even.....they'll revoke my card.

I'm also not sure it's widely known how good Al Simmons was. He's arguably the 5th best LFer of all time.

I was about to say....

And yeah, I'm a huge Al Simmons fan and definitely underrated. I see it like this:
Musial > Cobb
Mantle > Simmons
Jackson > Brock

 

[Pwnasaurus]

I was about to say....

And yeah, I'm a huge Al Simmons fan and definitely underrated. I see it like this:
Musial > Cobb
Mantle > Simmons
Jackson > Brock

But if you go strictly by position they are playing in this series, you could easily say.

Simmons > Brock
Cobb > Mantle
Musial > Jackson

 

[bluesfan94]

But if you go strictly by position they are playing in this series, you could easily say.

Simmons > Brock
Cobb > Mantle
Musial > Jackson

That is true. But I think my way is better at looking at it in terms of the outfield as a whole.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

Are you comparing Lou Boudreau to Pudge Rodriguez?

 

[bluesfan94]

Are you comparing Lou Boudreau to Pudge Rodriguez?

That's not necessarily the same way to look at it. While there are differences in playing the different positions of the outfield, I think those are much much more similar than C/SS. I would be willing to entertain a notion of comparing MIs and CIs. Part of it has to do with what you expect out of the position.

I could be convinced to do it like this:

Cobb > Mantle
Musial > Simmons
Brock = Jackson (albeit different play styles)

However, I think the gap between Cobb and Mantle is narrower than the gap between Musial and Simmons. That's what I'm trying to normalize. Or like this:

Simmons > Brock
Cobb > Mantle
Musial >> Jackson

 

[bluesfan94]

I'm not saying you have a bad outfield, Pwn, by any stretch of the imagination. I just think the Jays is narrowly better. Musial and Mantle are two absolutely fantastic building blocks and Brock adds a solid skillset as well.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

However, I think the gap between Cobb and Mantle is narrower than the gap between Musial and Simmons. That's what I'm trying to normalize. Or like this:

Simmons > Brock
Cobb > Mantle
Musial >> Jackson

That's a much fairer perspective. The skillsets between the outfield positions are going to be vastly different at times for CF vs COF where the bat is playing much more than the speed most of the time.

Although I would say Simmons >> Brock.

I know Brock's speed, but you're talking about a 133 OPS+ career for Simmons vs 109 for Brock which is one of the lowest among OFers in the HOF I would have to assume. That gap is canyon-esque and they won't revoke my card for that one.

 

[bluesfan94]

I get that, I really do. But when I look at the outfield in whole, I think the Jays have the edge

 

[Pwnasaurus]

By which metric?

If we use JAWS....

Cobb 110.0
Mantle 87.2

22.8 Difference to Cardinals


Simmons 57.2
Brock 38.6

18.6 Difference to Cardinals


Musial 96.2
Jackson 60.3

35.9 Difference to Jays

41.4 Cardinals
35.9 Jays

Cards +5.5

Or in total:

227.5 Cardinals
222 Jays

It's close in total but the edge lies with the Cards in total JAWS if we like that metric to determine the edge.

 

[NJDevs26]

I wouldn't compare anything position by position tbh except starting pitcher matchups and probably closers. I might compare lineup as a whole, bullpen and bench as a whole but comparing specific positions is inherently faulty. Like the Musial-Cobb one...would I take Cobb first in a draft, sure but both are completely different players with different roles in the batting order. Plus one team might have a huge edge at one position and another team might have a small edge at another position, you have to account for that if you're going to do a position by position comp.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

Behind clutch postseason pitching by Satchel Paige, the Cardinals advance to the next round with a 4-2 series win over a tough Jays opponent.