Prospect Info: 95th overall (2017): Vancouver selects D Jack Rathbone | Will he sign?

[bandwagonesque]

With Lockwood most likely now waiting out and going UFA, and looking like Rathbone going the same way, scouts have GOT to do a better job of character evaluation when going for these college guys as were just wasting away picks

What are you basing this on? Rathbone in particular is 3 seasons away from UFA and has said nothing one way or the other.

 

[Fatass]

What are you basing this on? Rathbone in particular is 3 seasons away from UFA and has said nothing one way or the other.

But Rathbone is also at least three years of development away from the NHL, right? Why not spend those years completing his degree at Harvard, than coming out early (not finishing his degree) and playing in Utica? His Harvard scholarship is likely worth more than a Utica contract.

 

[bandwagonesque]

But Rathbone is also at least three years of development away from the NHL, right?

No, not necessarily.

Why not spend those years completing his degree at Harvard, than coming out early (not finishing his degree) and playing in Utica? His Harvard scholarship is likely worth more than a Utica contract.

You'd have to ask the vast majority of NCAA prospects from prestigious, expensive universities who end up signing with the teams that drafted them. Every time, a small minority of fans go around talking about how the player is as good as gone and almost every time they turn out to be incorrect. If anything, Rathbone is more likely to sign because he has a extra year at university to burn relative to other prospects.

 

[DonnyNucker]

With Lockwood most likely now waiting out and going UFA, and looking like Rathbone going the same way, scouts have GOT to do a better job of character evaluation when going for these college guys as were just wasting away picks

I love this post

 

[DonnyNucker]

But Rathbone is also at least three years of development away from the NHL, right? Why not spend those years completing his degree at Harvard, than coming out early (not finishing his degree) and playing in Utica? His Harvard scholarship is likely worth more than a Utica contract.

Incorrect on multiple fronts

 

[Fatass]

Incorrect on multiple fronts

Explain where this idea is incorrect. I like Rathbone as a prospect, but see no incentive for him to sign early.

 

[DonnyNucker]

Explain where this idea is incorrect. I like Rathbone as a prospect, but see no incentive for him to sign early.

How can you possibly see no incentive? Money? Fame? Women? Cars? Nice suits? A potentially long and lucrative career? None of these are appealing ? You are overating a Harvard degree and under rating a kids desire to chase money and his athletic dreams

 

[VanJack]

Money? Fame? Cars? Nice Suits?.....I'm sure all those things exist in Utica, NY, but not for a player on an AHL salary. For example, if Quinn Hughes were to ever end up in Utica, his minor league salary would top out at $70,000 a season. And he was a first round draft pick.

I feel safe in predicting that if Rathbone finishes his degree at Harvard, and never plays pro hockey, his chances at 'money', 'cars' 'nice suits' and even 'women' would be far higher than riding the buses in the minors for the Charlestown Chiefs.

From the perspective of a fifth round draft pick like Rathbone, it's virtually impossible to actually 'overrate' a Harvard degree.

 

[Fatass]

How can you possibly see no incentive? Money? Fame? Women? Cars? Nice suits? A potentially long and lucrative career? None of these are appealing ? You are overating a Harvard degree and under rating a kids desire to chase money and his athletic dreams

If we are drafting guys with character, and Rathbone is clearly a guy with strong character and values, why would we assume he desires fast cars, and faster women? Plus, playing in Utica for his development years is not a step up from life as a Harvard student/athlete.

 

[DonnyNucker]

If we are drafting guys with character, and Rathbone is clearly a guy with strong character and values, why would we assume he desires fast cars, and faster women? Plus, playing in Utica for his development years is not a step up from life as a Harvard student/athlete.

Disagree completely again. Lots of people with high character like nice things and pretty women. And playing in Utica/ Vancouver is 1000% better than student life. He is an athlete and won’t pass up a potential career in the sport he loves to pursue a degree that he can get later. It’s possible but very unlikely.

 

[Fatass]

Disagree completely again. Lots of people with high character like nice things and pretty women. And playing in Utica/ Vancouver is 1000% better than student life. He is an athlete and won’t pass up a potential career in the sport he loves to pursue a degree that he can get later. It’s possible but very unlikely.

I’m hopeful that he signs early with us too. I think after his next college season would be ideal - spring 2020. Then he could get a full season in Utica, and (maybe?) be with us for the 2021/22 season.

 

[701]

Disagree completely again. Lots of people with high character like nice things and pretty women. And playing in Utica/ Vancouver is 1000% better than student life. He is an athlete and won’t pass up a potential career in the sport he loves to pursue a degree that he can get later. It’s possible but very unlikely.

DonnyNucker, I agree with you 100%, and as a Harvard grad I've got some idea at least of the scene there, the official deep respect for pursuing excellence outside of school in *whatever* field including sports, and the extreme ease in coming back to finish a degree via summer school for example.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Disagree completely again. Lots of people with high character like nice things and pretty women. And playing in Utica/ Vancouver is 1000% better than student life. He is an athlete and won’t pass up a potential career in the sport he loves to pursue a degree that he can get later. It’s possible but very unlikely.

Virtually all of the many players in this exact situation have done the opposite of what you're suggesting Rathbone will almost certainly do. Do you realize this?

 

[DonnyNucker]

Virtually all of the many players in this exact situation have done the opposite of what you're suggesting Rathbone will almost certainly do. Do you realize this?

You are saying that the majority of players that are offered NHL contracts have passed in order to complete their degree? Please explain

 

[bandwagonesque]

You are saying that the majority of players that are offered NHL contracts have passed in order to complete their degree? Please explain

Oh shit -- I misread you. Sorry.

 

[VanJack]

Most, if not all players have agents. If Jack Rathbone's agent were to ever recommend that he walk away from his shot at a Harvard degree for the nomadic life as a fifth round draft pick playing the minors, then he deserves to be fired.

Fortunately Benning and Canucks are smarter than that. I doubt they even talk to Rathbone and agent until he's at least finished his junior season at Harvard.

 

[701]

Most, if not all players have agents. If Jack Rathbone's agent were to ever recommend that he walk away from his shot at a Harvard degree for the nomadic life as a fifth round draft pick playing the minors, then he deserves to be fired.

Fortunately Benning and Canucks are smarter than that. I doubt they even talk to Rathbone and agent until he's at least finished his junior season at Harvard.

College players have "representatives" or some such, but not agents. Not allowed. But there's obviously a huge fudge factor, or so it seems likely to me.

Of course the Canucks are in contact with the agents or representatives of all their drafted players. They have a business interest in their health and progression. A 4th-rounder like Rathbone is still a valuable piece, potentially. Madden was a 3rd and seems NHL-bound. Gaudette was drafted in the 5th round, like you mentioned above, and he's doing OK in the NHL. Tanev was never drafted. So you never know. High drafts can bust; lower drafts can succeed. All hockey clubs pay close attention to the inventory of their stock in trade, their drafted players. That's how it works.

And of course they talk about a player's plans for coming out of the NCAA to sign a contract. As I've explained in earlier posts, "walking away from a Harvard degree" is only a temporary thing if the player is motivated to finish the degree at a later date, like Cory Schneider did at Boston College. Kids want to succeed and getpaid the big bucks while doing the thing they love and are gifted at. It's totally normal. In some way I think we are all like that. There's no special magic to any degree if your desired profession could care less about a diploma. And anyway, you can always finish the degree later. When I was at Harvard they encouraged us to drop out anytime, get some real world experience, and "call us when you want to come back." Dead simple. Once you're in, you're in for life. As a pro hockey player, you get a base ELC of about a million bucks a year for NHL play, and then the pay gets even better. No worries then about summer school tuition, as I learned at summer school when preparing to enrol for a second degree at the school in question. Even on Utica pay you could afford summer school in Cambridge as you chipped away at your degree over a couple of summers. My freshman roommate, admitted from Texas partly for his football prowess, dropped out his junior year, spent a year at the Sorbonne, came back and graduated a year after me, got a Rhodes scholarship, quit the Oxford degree program, became a journalist, and then became a Hollywood film director. Life is often non-linear. My roommate's Rhodes meant nothing on a film set behind a camera. Drafted hockey players have that passion and direction to succeed, and some do succeed in the NHL, but all is not lost if they go into coaching, say, or broadcasting. And failing that, the NCAA guys can go back and finish their degrees with a wealth of worldly experience under their belts. After World War Two, colleges like Harvard were surprised at how much better the returning veterans did than the regular college students. That's why the admin told us to buzz off and return when we liked. If we were able to buzz off and play hockey, well, why not?

 

[M2Beezy]

What are you basing this on? Rathbone in particular is 3 seasons away from UFA and has said nothing one way or the other.

Could very easily just go UFA cause he wants his special Harvard degree so badly. He aint singing this summer, and doubt it happens next summer, then is THAT much closer to just finishing his degree and getting a contract with WHATEVER team he wants. The suprising one for me is Lockwood, i thought he really wanted to be a Canuck. Total punch to the stumoch

 

[Cupless44]

With Lockwood most likely now waiting out and going UFA, and looking like Rathbone going the same way, scouts have GOT to do a better job of character evaluation when going for these college guys as were just wasting away picks

Character evaluation on Rathbone? lol seriously?

You do know why he delayed going to college right?

 

[Zombotron]

Kept failing high school

No, it was to take care of his autistic brother. Also, people who fail high school don't go to Harvard.

 

[The Vasili Jerry]

Had a goal tonight in a 5-2 loss. Was a +2 as well. I didn't watch the game so I have no idea how he played but in terms of stat watching it looks good.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

I say he does one more year and then signs... but not before certain people freak out a whole lot more.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

Three more years to graduation.

And then we'll find out where he signs.

 

[701]

Comparing the complete season stats of freshman Jack Rathbone to the senior Josh Teves, whom the Canucks recently signed, is a bit of an eye-opener. I looked at the ECAC stats and Rathbone leads Teves in virtually every category. Now, it's only stats, and the Princeton team kind of sucked this year, but still, it's a raw freshman vs an experienced and more-developed senior. One whom the Canucks saw fit to sign. My takeaway is that the Canucks will obviously have a big interest in signing Rathbone if they liked Teves so much. Rathbone's defence (his +15 was comfortably second on the team) seems very competent for a freshman D, and we already know his skating and shot are both strong attributes (his shot total was also second on the team). His penalty minutes were very low, only 8 minutes on the season. His goals and points were both 6th on the team. Obviously the coaches gave him a lot of trust, and he was a star freshman.

I won't bother to put up Teves's stats, but I was puzzled by the significant difference across the board, this season, especially since Teves was signed by the Canucks as an age 24 senior. He did have a statistically excellent junior year, and his IQ is likely high considering his seriously technical academic major. Compared to him, the freshman Rathbone, age 19, may be a toolsy cannonball (10 pounds heavier than Teves already) but still rough around the edges. Which could be expected given the large age difference. But Rathbone's +15 was tied for 10th among all ECAC skaters, and 7th for all D, which reminds somewhat of how Chris Tanev stood out at RIT with his insane plus-minus coupled with very low penalty minutes. It's looking so far like Rathbone was a mid-round steal like Gaudette and Madden.

 

[me2]

. Rathbone's defence (his +15 was comfortably second on the team) seems very competent for a freshman D, and we already know his skating and shot are both strong attributes (his shot total was also second on the team). His penalty minutes were very low, only 8 minutes on the season. His goals and points were both 6th on the team. Obviously the coaches gave him a lot of trust, and he was a star freshman.

But Rathbone's +15 was tied for 10th among all ECAC skaters, and 7th for all D, which reminds somewhat of how Chris Tanev stood out at RIT with his insane plus-minus coupled with very low penalty minutes. It's looking so far like Rathbone was a mid-round steal like Gaudette and Madden.

Rathbone is paired with Fox who was +24, so you would expect him to get a pretty good +/-. How much is the Fox effect and how much is Rathbone is hard to say.