So I think we are talking past each other a bit.
Your example of your beer league experience is kind of my point. You are able to succeed, despite being a lesser physical specimen at this point, no offense, because you play smart and see things better than your opponents and teammates. And I think we can agree that beer league is not very organized.
So that example kinda proves the point, if Alex was thinking “too” fast for the ahl, he would similarly have succeeded, like yourself, because he can take advantage of less intelligent players. He would over produce, for his athleticism and maturity.
So I can agree with you, that he might very well succeed at the nhl next year or the year after. But it’s not because playing at the nhl is a slower pace or because his teammates will be better. I would posit it is because he matured physically and mentally enough to use his ability effectively at the professional level. I suspect he would crush the ahl next year at 22 if he stays down, regardless of the difference in play between the two leagues, if we are to believe that his last performance is typical of his future nhl production.