Post-Game Talk: #70 | Golden Knights at FLYERS | Mon., Mar. 12, 2018, 7:00 pm ET

[Curufinwe]

The reason Voracek has a 5on5 CF of 50.47% is the minutes where he was stuck with Filppula. Without Flip, he's at 53.1%.

Jakub Voracek - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

Similarly, Provorov has a CF of 50.15% due to the minutes where he was stuck carrying Hagg and MacDonald. With Ghost he's at 55.12%.

Ivan Provorov - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

 

[FLYguy3911]

1. My point is that there certainly ARE biases with numbers if you eliminate context. Players are used differently. If they all were used exactly the same way with the same minutes against the same levels of competition with the same zone starts, etc., then there'd be no biases in the numbers. That doesn't happen. So to say the numbers have no biases is incorrect and pretty much my whole point. If I'm bowling an extra ten feet back from another person, the numbers may say the person with the shorter roll is a way better bowler, but it's skewed. It's the same with advanced stats. They get skewed. It bothers me when people disregard that. When the conditions aren't the same for multiple test objects, you end up with flawed science.

2. Just saying Hagg since Feb. 1 was 6th among defensemen on the Flyers averaging 16:58. So he was their 6th defenseman in TOI. Which is a lot closer to what he should be, and that's a good thing. But if he got the most minutes against Crosby ES, that's telling of the thinness of their D, & also an explanation as to why he's struggling if he's drawing that type of matchup. Hagg gets 6 minutes 5 on 5 against Crosby; then 6 minutes 5 on 5 against Marchand and Pastrnak; Sanheim comes in next game and gets 5 mins against Andrew Copp and Jack Roslovic; then 6 mins against Cody Eakin and Ryan Carpenter. I'd like to see Sanheim's advanced stats if he were drawing first line players every game like Crosby. I bet the numbers would be different.

1. Who is eliminating context though? You keep bringing up zone starts and quality of competition as if that actually makes a difference when there is a 10-12% gap in the numbers. They don't and if you think they do, there is no point in continuing the discussion. Just like the difference between Sanheim and Hagg in the first half of the year couldn't be explained by zone starts and QoC. The gap was too big. You never bring up quality of teammates, which when discussing the Flyers is probably more important than quality of competition. If you are playing with Coots and G, it really doesn't matter who you are playing against. Meanwhile if you are playing for Filppula, you're in for a long night.

2. I mean when the Flyers play on the road Hakstol can't dictate the matchups. It's not like Sanheim never played against top lines or had success against them. Look at the last time they played Winnipeg on the road. He was playing against Ehlers, Laine, Wheeler, Scheifele all game.

Sanheim in home games: +6.64 CF% rel
Sanheim in road games: +8.51 CF% rel

He's actually slightly better on the road (with worse zone starts if that even matters).

But going back to number 1, a bump in QoC means a bump in QoT. These things are all relative.

 

[Garbage Goal]

The reason Voracek has a 5on5 CF of 50.47% is the minutes where he was stuck with Filppula. Without Flip, he's at 53.1%.

Jakub Voracek - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

Similarly, Provorov has a CF of 50.15% due to the minutes where he was stuck carrying Hagg and MacDonald. With Ghost he's at 55.12%.

Ivan Provorov - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

I never see Hagg or Filp bringing anybody’s metrics up so I assume they drag everybody’s down.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I never see Hagg or Filp bringing anybody’s metrics up so I assume they drag everybody’s down.

Yup.

Compared to this...

That's why it's hard to take people serious when they defend guys like Hagg and Filppula. They make EVERYONE worse.

 

[deadhead]

More complex than that, it could be the player or that the player is used in situations that impact other players when they play with him. So it's as much how that player is used as the player. So if Sanheim is sheltered, playing with him means easier minutes than with other D-men.

 

[Audible Velvet]

I love these WOWYs. Pretty telling in this comparison. Interesting where all the blue squares lie, not just how others fare with and without. Also not surprising where certain players are in general with 5v5 performance. It starts to confirm a lot of what you see and think about certain ones.

 

[BernieParent]

Yup.

Compared to this...

That's why it's hard to take people serious when they defend guys like Hagg and Filppula. They make EVERYONE worse.

It's a wonder Leier hasn't shackled himself to Sanheim.

 

[FLYguy3911]

It's a wonder Leier hasn't shackled himself to Sanheim.

Well he kind of did...in the press box for 3 weeks in January.

 

[JXC]

Hakstol has openly stated that he wants offense to come from the defense. He flat out told us he builds his system around that. It is his stated philosophy.

Everyone here says the same.

And saying so is not nearly the same as saying “Konecny deferred to the defense!!!!1!”

 

[JXC]

Then why do the Flyers average the furthest distance from the net with their shots for the 2nd consecutive season?

Because they lack skillful and powerful forwards who can create shots around or between the circles and the Flyers are nearly totally lacking in the ability to create shots off the rush. These things have been observed and commented upon here by those who watch the games.

 

[Rebels57]

Because they lack skillful and powerful forwards who can create shots around or between the circles and the Flyers are nearly totally lacking in the ability to create shots off the rush. These things have been observed and commented upon here by those who watch the games.

Lol, this is such bullshit.

So all 31 NHL teams have more "skillful and powerful forwards who can create shots around or between the circle" and they can "create shots off the rush" better? Buffalo? Arizona? Vancouver? Montreal? Detroit?

Wrong and you know it (or you don't, which is worse). We have 2 forwards over a PPG. One forward not far below a PPG. One forward that is nearly a PPG his last 30 games. Another powerful 20+ goal scorer in Simmonds. It has absolutely nothing to do with what you just described and has absolutely everything to do with the system that they are taught and then forced to play.

Schenn criticized the system last year. He was traded. Others have criticized it in more subtle ways as well.

They get it deep. Retrieve. Pass to defensemen. The defensemen either shoots, dumps it back in the corner, or goes D to D where that Dman either shoots or dumps it into the corner. There is not a single aspect of the Flyers system at 5v5 that emphasizes shots from the slot area.

 

[JXC]

We have 2 forwards over a PPG. One forward not far below a PPG. One forward that is nearly a PPG his last 30 games. Another powerful 20+ goal scorer in Simmonds.

Wow. That’s five guys, I stand corrected.



What about Filppula Laughton Leier Lehtera Raffl Weal Weise yeah they’d totally be wheeling and dealing in and around the slot, inundating the opposing goalkeeper with shots if Haktard would just change his system come on

Plus:

1 the flyers inability to get shots off the rush has been well documented here by those who watch the games

2 maybe opposing defenses have something to do with this, maybe they are the ones who “defer to the point” because the Flyers lack defensemen with offensive zone skill ergo they pack the slot and choke off all opportunities there

Flyers powerplay woes lately have been about crossice pass attempt giveways because opposing PKs prefer Flyer defensemen shooting, excepting Gostisbehere

If you were running opposing PKs or 5v5 defenses who would you leave open?

 

[Rebels57]

Wow. That’s five guys, I stand corrected.



What about Filppula Laughton Leier Lehtera Raffl Weal Weise yeah they’d totally be wheeling and dealing in and around the slot, inundating the opposing goalkeeper with shots if Haktard would just change his system come on

Plus:

1 the flyers inability to get shots off the rush has been well documented here by those who watch the games

2 maybe opposing defenses have something to do with this, maybe they are the ones who “defer to the point” because the Flyers lack defensemen with offensive zone skill ergo they pack the slot and choke off all opportunities there

Flyers powerplay woes lately have been about crossice pass attempt giveways because opposing PKs prefer Flyer defensemen shooting, excepting Gostisbehere

If you were running opposing PKs or 5v5 defenses who would you leave open?

So all 31 of the other NHL teams have players more capable of getting shots off in the slot?

You know the answer is a resounding NO.

THIS.
IS.
OUR.
SYSTEM.

Why are you fighting this? Is this just so blame is shifted more towards the players rather than the coach? Yep, that's it.

 

[Lindberg]

More complex than that, it could be the player or that the player is used in situations that impact other players when they play with him. So it's as much how that player is used as the player. So if Sanheim is sheltered, playing with him means easier minutes than with other D-men.

While it might be more complex than a few graphs it certainly illustrates a point. Hagg isn't particularly good with the puck so the data being in line with an ability to pass the puck up ice makes sense.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Everyone here says the same.

And saying so is not nearly the same as saying “Konecny deferred to the defense!!!!1!”

It isn't a coincidence that the coach tells us he wants the dmen to be major sources of offense, that the dmen fire tons of shots (reflected in our team stats, actually), and that the rest of the team routinely works to set the dmen up.


You may as well argue that Boudreau doesnt instruct his teams to rely on the drop pass to set up trailing guys rather than dumping the puck when pressured. Every bit of evidence is against you in either situation.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Chucks PP system doesnt impress me in the least. Dont get me started on Lappy. If we had just an average PK, the Flyers aren’t worrying about scratching and clawing to get into the playoffs. Even with the boring dump and chase system.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Flyers

Columbus

 

[Rebels57]

Flyers

Columbus

JFC, that is just pathetic.

Our system is ass personified.

@JXC

 

[FLYguy3911]

It's worse without Coots' line on the ice aka the only line that can consistently create offense.

 

[Harhis]

JFC, that is just pathetic.

Our system is ass personified.

@JXC

And our system likely creates more variance to our results due to lot of low % shots. That 100% is a factor why this team is so streaky.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

those charts look like the radar maps I have been looking at for the last 3 storms we have got up here

 

[BernieParent]

those charts look like the radar maps I have been looking at for the last 3 storms we have got up here

I'm grateful I live in a Flyers net-front presence.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I'm guessing rebounds might be a talking point based on the talk of shot locations. It reminded me of something I came across the other day. The Defenseman with 300+ 5v5 Minutes Played who leads the entire league in Rebounds Created/60 is Brandon Manning. Weber is 2nd.

Amongst Flyers D, Gudas is last. Just above him are Gostisbehere and Hagg in a virtual tie.

That would not be something upon which I want to pin my hopes.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Manning hasn't passed in the offensive zone his entire career.

He fires unscreened wristers every time.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Manning hasn't passed in the offensive zone his entire career.

He fires unscreened wristers every time.

Yep. He didn't even slow down when paired with Gostisbehere. That pair might have been more painful to watch than 8-47.

My two biggest takeaways from that were Manning first/Gudas last and the Hagg/Gostisbehere tie.