Post-Game Talk: #70 | Golden Knights at FLYERS | Mon., Mar. 12, 2018, 7:00 pm ET

[deadhead]

People just hate to admit this isn't a very talented team.

Laughton is not a good center, I've watched him all season and it's the same, with the right linemates he can center a good checking line, but so can PEB, and no one thinks PEB is a credible 3C. But PEB is more responsibly defensively, he just had dreck to play with here (which has been true since 2012-13, at no time have we had decent 4th line personnel). So replace Filppula with him and in two weeks all I'll read about is what an idiot Hakstol is to trust him in tight situations.

Read is playing better, but he's still a marginal 4th line wing, as is Lehtera, while Weise and Leier are worse.
Simmonds and Raffl can be productive with a good center, but that ain't Filppula. But nor is it MV. And Vorobyev isn't ready.

I wouldn't trust Sanheim under pressure at the end of the game right now, let him just get comfortable on a regular shift, don't set him up to fail.
Outside of Provorov and Ghost, and they need another year or two to rise to elite level (there's more than scoring, they've been struggling under pressure in the D-zone much of this season), they don't have much on defense this year.

But what really stands out at the end of games, is the lack of physicality on this team, pressure them on the boards and you can take the puck away on a regular basis - and that isn't fixed by playing Ghost or Sanheim, that's fixed by finding more guys like Patrick (when he grows up) and Lindblom who have size and good hands and grit. You can't pass it out of your D-zone if you don't possess the puck. And you get the puck back by winning board and corner battles.

 

[deadhead]

It's hilarious the way you fall back on bashing Voracek whenever Hak chokes away another game.

Voracek has the 4th most PP points in the entire league.

NHL.com - Stats

I've been troubled by Voracek for a long time, I don't like his "soft" play, but what's worse, for a scoring winger, he can't or won't shoot.
And that's a problem because teams know it and play him that way.
When they did that to Giroux, he started potting goals, when they do that to Voracek, he's a stubborn mule who keeps skating around trying to make a pretty play.
I might be tempted to try Konecny on the 1PP in that role.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Yeah, i mean. the only small difference is that no one said Gudas was the best player on the team. Not even facetiosuly. They used one stat to show that he isn't as bad as being said in the thread.

Then you purposely go full hyperbolic with it and try to correlate that to "matt read being our best player". It's almost the same. almost.

I was actually referring more to the attempts to (I believe) overrate how good Sanheim has been this year by citing a couple of fancy stats over a small sample size. The stats ignored zone starts, QOC, and things that aren't quantified in stats like positioning mistakes.
For example, yes, Gudas has played better with Sanheim according to things like Corsi and expected GF%, but it ignored that Gudas is now starting in the offensive zone 59% of the time vs. 47% with Manning and probably facing weaker competition.

 

[Winston Wolf]

I've been troubled by Voracek for a long time, I don't like his "soft" play, but what's worse, for a scoring winger, he can't or won't shoot.
And that's a problem because teams know it and play him that way.
When they did that to Giroux, he started potting goals, when they do that to Voracek, he's a stubborn mule who keeps skating around trying to make a pretty play.
I might be tempted to try Konecny on the 1PP in that role.

Voracek has the 10th most shots on the PP in the entire league this year and is 34th in shots overall.

So what exactly would you say you're talking about?

 

[deadhead]

When they give you a wide open look, don't hold the puck for three seconds and wait for help to arrive.
The whole point of swinging the puck away from pressure is to find the wide open guy for the clear shot.

One problem I do see is few Flyers have a good wrist shot (see Laine, he and Boeser are the two best I've seen this year and they're 19 and 20).
Ironically, Voracek has shown one at times, but not consistently.
A quick release on an accurate wrist shot is far more effective than most slapshots, today's goalies can stop almost any shot if there's a windup and they can anticipate and move into position.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I believe advanced stats are useful; I loved Moneyball; but I think too many treat them with too much deference, without enough context, and act as if they have found the perfect horse racing formula.

Context such as zone starts and quality of competition?

The difference between Manning's numbers and Sanheim's is too big to be explained by just be those things. Btw we can adjust for zone starts. It doesn't come close to making up the difference.

But when advanced stats tell you that Matt Read has been a top 3 Flyer the last two seasons; Weise was a top 5 last season; and Sanheim has been better than Ghost, Provorov, Doughty, and a slew of other big name defensemen, it sure is far from a perfect system.

Well Matt Read and Dale Weise were top 5 forwards in terms of effectiveness at 5v5 last year. Repeatability and TOI% are/were other things to consider.

In theory, Sanheim could be more effective than Doughty 5v5 (which is all Corsi is really useful for) and still be a lot less valuable because he doesn't play special teams or the volume of minutes that Doughty does. Corsi isn't WAR. It's doesn't determine who is more valuable. That's what you don't seem to grasp. It is just a measure of effectiveness in one's given minutes. I know I'm in the very small minority (maybe the only one), but I think if Sanheim were given the same minutes and the same leash that Provorov was afforded when he was starting his NHL career, there wouldn't be a drop-off between the two and there's a chance that the Flyers would be better off for it.

Btw remember how Corsi had Robert Hagg all wrong? Haven't heard your input on him lately? Why couldn't he maintain that 65% GF% from the first month of the season?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I know I'm in the very small minority (maybe the only one)

Nope, not alone. I wasn't there, but the more I've learned over the last few years both statistically and what skills translate from Juniors, I sure am.

It's a mistake that's going to be repeated, hopefully with lesser prospects at least.

 

[Curufinwe]

I've been troubled by Voracek for a long time, I don't like his "soft" play, but what's worse, for a scoring winger, he can't or won't shoot.
And that's a problem because teams know it and play him that way.
When they did that to Giroux, he started potting goals, when they do that to Voracek, he's a stubborn mule who keeps skating around trying to make a pretty play.
I might be tempted to try Konecny on the 1PP in that role.

You've been troubled ever since Hakstol started piling up the choke jobs, and have been forced to come up with ever more outlandish excuses for him. Today it's that the scoring winger who has 75 points in 70 games and is 4th in the league in PP points needs to be demoted to make way for a kid you said was 2-3 years away from being a top 6 winger just a few months ago.


Funny how you're such big fan of Giroux all of a sudden, when just six months ago you were very troubled by his decline.

What's curious is the length some of you will go to deny the obvious, that Giroux is on the decline, and that it started three years ago. Last year was an anomaly due to injury, but Giroux healthy still isn't the same player he was four years ago.

"It's the players around him, no, it's the coaching scheme, no it's . . .

Face it, it's Father Time.

I'm not "hating" on Giroux, I'm just realistic about where he is in his career, he's a marginal #1 at ES, he'll be a 60 point scorer but half will come from the PP. Next season, and maybe by January this season, depending on how fast Patrick develops, I expect he'll be third in ES minutes per game. Reducing his minutes per game may increase his effectiveness, because he can't afford "tired legs" at this point in his career.

A lot of people seem to be invested in 26 year old Giroux, the elite scoring center - but that train has left the station, folks. If you want a jump in scoring this year, it's going to come from Lindblom, Patrick, Konency, Weal, Couts's line and hopefully a solid 4th line.

 

[Striiker]

I feel like I’m on vacation.

Just a spectator of the roasts, instead of being the roaster or one being roasted.

And, as usual, they’re 100% deserved.

 

[Starat327]

I feel like I’m on vacation.

Just a spectator of the roasts, instead of being the roaster or one being roasted.

And, as usual, they’re 100% deserved.

This is an opinion, and not a fact.

 

[Striiker]

This is an opinion, and not a fact.

Apparently there’s no such thing as facts anymore. Only opinions, that way nobody can ever be wrong.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Context such as zone starts and quality of competition?

The difference between Manning's numbers and Sanheim's is too big to be explained by just be those things. Btw we can adjust for zone starts. It doesn't come close to making up the difference.


Well Matt Read and Dale Weise were top 5 forwards in terms of effectiveness at 5v5 last year. Repeatability and TOI% are/were other things to consider.

In theory, Sanheim could be more effective than Doughty 5v5 (which is all Corsi is really useful for) and still be a lot less valuable because he doesn't play special teams or the volume of minutes that Doughty does. Corsi isn't WAR. It's doesn't determine who is more valuable. That's what you don't seem to grasp. It is just a measure of effectiveness in one's given minutes. I know I'm in the very small minority (maybe the only one), but I think if Sanheim were given the same minutes and the same leash that Provorov was afforded when he was starting his NHL career, there wouldn't be a drop-off between the two and there's a chance that the Flyers would be better off for it.

Btw remember how Corsi had Robert Hagg all wrong? Haven't heard your input on him lately? Why couldn't he maintain that 65% GF% from the first month of the season?

I absolutely grasp that Corsi isn't like WAR. But I sure think many fans treat Corsi-type stats that way -- as whether one player is better than the other. You see people on here do it all the time in an argument over a player -- they appeal to Corsi and/or another advanced stat and act like that is that. Argument over. And I believe that is a vastly oversimplified approach and leaves out far too much context. Which is always why I say there's a lot more to rating a player than just possession-type stats.

Oh, and I always agreed Hagg couldn't sustain that pace. I just argued he gets more hate here than he deserves. And I still absolutely believe that, despite his rough stretch (hey, he's a rookie, and plenty of players go through slumps). I'm glad he got reduced to 3rd pairing minutes, where I always said he belonged. And Sanheim has the perfect opportunity to steal Hagg's lineup position if he can take full advantage.

 

[deadhead]

Corsi is just one stat, and a very crude one, some teams/players will post higher Corsi because they shoot from any angle.
HDCF is a better stat, but still limited, since it is a counting stat from areas of the ice, not quality of the shot.

Giroux was on the decline as a center even before he was injured last year, see the TWO previous seasons.
Moving him to LW (a move that many criticized as either wrong or too early) revived his career. As did playing with Couts.

I've criticized Voracek for years, to me he's a bit of an "empty stat" guy, which isn't to say he isn't a GOOD player, rather, his scoring is more impressive than his overall play. He's not as good a player as Giroux or Couts, and it shows in the advanced stats:
CF% 50.47 (career low)
HDCF% 52.11 (rebound from last year but below most years)
Giveways are a career high.
For a guy 6'3 210 lbs, he's a soft player, especially on defense, Konecny is far more physical (and a tad bit crazy).
He peaked at age 25, slumped a bit, has bounced back, but this is all there is.
Voracek looked better with Giroux and Couts, but of course, so has Konecny.
Patrick developing will help him, but I see him more as a complementary player than a team driver.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Which is always why I say there's a lot more to rating a player than just possession-type stats.

There is but when there is such a big gap between two players, and you don't see it, you are probably the one missing something. The eye-test is great and all but it's biased. Everyone's is. That's why numbers are useful. They have no biases. They force you to search for answers and look at the finer details.

Oh, and I always agreed Hagg couldn't sustain that pace. I just argued he gets more hate here than he deserves. And I still absolutely believe that, despite his rough stretch (hey, he's a rookie, and plenty of players go through slumps). I'm glad he got reduced to 3rd pairing minutes, where I always said he belonged.

He got taken off the PK, but getting tapped on the back to go head-to-head with Crosby (primarily) and Malkin (secondary) doesn't strike me as a guy looked at as a 3rd pair defenseman by his coach.

 

[deadhead]

The numbers also reflect a player's skills and how they're used.
Sanheim is an offensive defenseman, matched up against weaker competition with a higher rate of O-zone starts, under those conditions you'd expect him to post a good Corsi.
And it's a good strategy, start a rookie in situations that play to their strength, and let them grow into the job.

Hagg is our only physical defenseman, especially after the league neutered Gudas.
So he gets matchups that play into that strength, even if they tax his other talents.

If you haven't noticed, we're an undersized team that oppponents like to attack by dumping the puck in and winning board battles.
Fast undersized teams combat that by getting to the puck and moving it out of the D-zone before they get plastered, our problem is we only have a few players quick and skilled enough to pull that off - so we need anyone who can win those battles.

 

[Striiker]

If Hagg is “in a slump” then it’s a multiple year slump.


Aka, not a slump, just a bad player.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If you haven't noticed, we're an undersized team that oppponents like to attack by dumping the puck in and winning board battles.
Fast undersized teams combat that by getting to the puck and moving it out of the D-zone before they get plastered, our problem is we only have a few players quick and skilled enough to pull that off - so we need anyone who can win those battles.

Or, and I know this is crazy, we could go with a Defense that can flip possession. That fixes the problem AND gets better players on the ice.

 

[deadhead]

You can only flip possession if you gain possession.
If you consistently lose board battles I'm gonna dump, chase and hit all night, and if I'm bigger AND faster, you're screwed.

 

[Magua]

Or you dump it in and can't get shit going because they're fast retrieving and making a transition read.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Or you dump it in and can't get **** going because they're fast retrieving and making a transition read.

You mean like how teams have slaughtered us lately?

 

[Magua]

You mean like how teams have slaughtered us lately?

No, we've lost because of size, grit, and energy.

 

[Garbage Goal]

You've been troubled ever since Hakstol started piling up the choke jobs, and have been forced to come up with ever more outlandish excuses for him. Today it's that the scoring winger who has 75 points in 70 games and is 4th in the league in PP points needs to be demoted to make way for a kid you said was 2-3 years away from being a top 6 winger just a few months ago.


Funny how you're such big fan of Giroux all of a sudden, when just six months ago you were very troubled by his decline.

I look forward to deadhead completely ignoring the massive light you shined on his hypocrisy and bullshit. As well as the perpetual back-and-forth people will have with him thereafter regardless.

 

[Tripod]

I feel like I’m on vacation.

Just a spectator of the roasts, instead of being the roaster or one being roasted.

And, as usual, they’re 100% deserved.

You and me both.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

There is but when there is such a big gap between two players, and you don't see it, you are probably the one missing something. The eye-test is great and all but it's biased. Everyone's is. That's why numbers are useful. They have no biases. They force you to search for answers and look at the finer details.


He got taken off the PK, but getting tapped on the back to go head-to-head with Crosby (primarily) and Malkin (secondary) doesn't strike me as a guy looked at as a 3rd pair defenseman by his coach.

1. My point is that there certainly ARE biases with numbers if you eliminate context. Players are used differently. If they all were used exactly the same way with the same minutes against the same levels of competition with the same zone starts, etc., then there'd be no biases in the numbers. That doesn't happen. So to say the numbers have no biases is incorrect and pretty much my whole point. If I'm bowling an extra ten feet back from another person, the numbers may say the person with the shorter roll is a way better bowler, but it's skewed. It's the same with advanced stats. They get skewed. It bothers me when people disregard that. When the conditions aren't the same for multiple test objects, you end up with flawed science.

2. Just saying Hagg since Feb. 1 was 6th among defensemen on the Flyers averaging 16:58. So he was their 6th defenseman in TOI. Which is a lot closer to what he should be, and that's a good thing. But if he got the most minutes against Crosby ES, that's telling of the thinness of their D, & also an explanation as to why he's struggling if he's drawing that type of matchup. Hagg gets 6 minutes 5 on 5 against Crosby; then 6 minutes 5 on 5 against Marchand and Pastrnak; Sanheim comes in next game and gets 5 mins against Andrew Copp and Jack Roslovic; then 6 mins against Cody Eakin and Ryan Carpenter. I'd like to see Sanheim's advanced stats if he were drawing first line players every game like Crosby. I bet the numbers would be different.

 

[Striiker]

16:58 minutes too many.

Exactly the type of player we're trying to get rid of. We need smart guys, who can move the puck, and don't kill offensive pressure.