Prospect Info: #7 - Clayton Keller

ck26

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He's seems to keep his word and has already stated publicly that he wants one year BU and then straight to NHL. If he fails to make the team next camp, will he already have a contract signed, and thus be ineligible for BU?
The NHLPA don't make him sign a contract until the 2017-2018 season starts, but BU will have some in-or-out decision deadlines if he wants to retain his scholarship. They'll want to know by March or April if he plans to come back, and if not they'll find another kid to take his spot. That's the point when he'd sign if he doesn't want to go back for his sophomore season.

Him leaving BU and failing to make the NHL probably means Tucson, but he could technically go to the OHL for his last season. Someone did that recently, can't remember who, they played like 5 games of NCAA's then said screw this and went to the CHL. But it's rare.
 

RemoAZ

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I don't know why you'd want to go to college when you can sign a professional contract as a 1st round pick and earn more in your entry level deal than you could in decades of a regular job AFTER you graduate from college.
 

rt

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I don't know why you'd want to go to college when you can sign a professional contract as a 1st round pick and earn more in your entry level deal than you could in decades of a regular job AFTER you graduate from college.

The signing bonus isn't representative of decades of regular work. He'll almost certainly get it either way.
 
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ck26

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It's upsetting / awe-inspiring that you pulled that answer out so quickly. Boffo.
I don't know why you'd want to go to college when you can sign a professional contract as a 1st round pick and earn more in your entry level deal than you could in decades of a regular job AFTER you graduate from college.
As ridiculous as this sounds as a lot of folks live paycheck to paycheck, in the grand scheme of life (particularly life in pro sports), that initial signing bonus is small potatoes.

If you're good enough to get drafted, you're good enough to get a scholarship just about anywhere in Division 1.

If you're good enough to get a scholarship, you have 4 years of hockey and a college degree. If you have the discipline, work ethic and smarts to survive 4 years at a D1 university, you'll probably do fine at "a real job" and you'll do OK in life. You won't starve.

If you make it to NCAA's and get overwhelmed and run over, that was going to happen in the AHL anyway. If you get run over in the AHL, your 3 years = $200k and a ticket out of pro hockey. In the grand scheme of things, $200k isn't a life-changing sum of money. Obviously it would help a "normal" person quite a bit, but if that's your big pile of money for life, you'd better live frugal.

NCAA's is a longer leash than major junior. You only have until 20 / 21 at major junior. Between the USHL (or Junior A) and the NCAA's, you potentially have until 24 before you make the jump to pros.

Great writeup in the Hockey News a couple months ago about Zach Werenski's transition from UMichigan to the AHL:
"Werenski's biggest issue with pro hockey has been finding a way to fill his schedule. 'I get out of the rink at noon and have to figure out what to do with rest of the day,' Werenski said. ' I'm used to classes and study hall and things like that. It's kind of boring.' When he's not looking for hobbies -- shooting hoops and hanging by the pool have become his go-to activities ..."
Gee, what kind of trouble could a rich 20 year old get into while sitting around bored in Cleveland, OH?

BU has high level competition, fewer games,, more practice, more time in the weight room, more structure in life + the college experience. Plus he gets to live in Boston instead of East Detroit. There are SO many hot chicks at BU and BC and Northeastern and Harvard ... SO many. I'd give my pinkie to be a star 19 year old hockey player in Boston with a future in the NHL. SO many hot chicks ... yeah, it's a bit less money now, but one (or even two) years at BU is a great way to grow as a player and a person.
 

Grvmnd

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I don't know why you'd want to go to college when you can sign a professional contract as a 1st round pick and earn more in your entry level deal than you could in decades of a regular job AFTER you graduate from college.

Just think of the chics that kid'll pull down in his off time. I get it.
 

KG

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This whole Jimmy Vesey thing has me thinking back to the Wheeler days. Anyone else a little worried about Keller doing this to us?

I believe he's stated multiple times that he only plans to do one year at at BU, so it seems unlikely.
 

Ebb

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This whole Jimmy Vesey thing has me thinking back to the Wheeler days. Anyone else a little worried about Keller doing this to us?

I'm always worried about that and so lean towards not wanting the team to draft college-bound players (especially in rounds 1 or 2). Keller may say he only plans on spending a year in college, but you never know. If he's injured or doesn't put up good numbers, he then has to return for a 2nd year. If he's still playing at the college level in his 3rd year, I'm guessing he'll stay the 4th and then go FA to a stronger team (depending where we are at by that time).

It's a wait and see situation; luckily, we have some promising players coming up that it won't affect us much if he ends up signing elsewhere.
 

Jakey53

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I'm always worried about that and so lean towards not wanting the team to draft college-bound players (especially in rounds 1 or 2). Keller may say he only plans on spending a year in college, but you never know. If he's injured or doesn't put up good numbers, he then has to return for a 2nd year. If he's still playing at the college level in his 3rd year, I'm guessing he'll stay the 4th and then go FA to a stronger team (depending where we are at by that time).

It's a wait and see situation; luckily, we have some promising players coming up that it won't affect us much if he ends up signing elsewhere.

He better not sign elsewhere. This team can not afford to lose a high end draft pick for nothing.
 

YotesFan47

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He better not sign elsewhere. This team can not afford to lose a high end draft pick for nothing.

I hope he plays 4 years and BU and then signs with us so we can put this idea that all college players are scary to bed. It happens, I can count 5 players in the last decade that were higher profile that have done it, but I can count more in that same time span that stuck with their respective clubs.
 

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Here's the big difference. Wheeler struggled until his 4th year. Even then he wasn't dominating. Keller will likely dominate out of the gate in NCAA. Keller will get bored and want to sign. We honestly weren't even sure Wheeler could play in NHL up until his 4th year. I know at least one Flames scout who 2 years after he was taking didn't think he was a legitimate prospect.
 

Heldig

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The Wheeler development curve makes you wonder how many prospects were given up on too early.
 

PhoPhan

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The Wheeler development curve makes you wonder how many prospects were given up on too early.

I can't think of many top five picks who were out of the league by the time they turned 23. Most first rounders get a second and usually a third or fourth chance if the team that drafted them gives up. Had the Coyotes signed Wheeler after his freshman or sophomore season, he probably would have gone to the AHL for a season or two.

The Wheeler situation is also impossible now, as I understand the current CBA. The only reason he was able to pull that off was because he played a year in the USHL after being drafted and before heading to Minnesota. I believe a player has to play four years of college hockey now to do what Vesey is doing, which is usually going to mean at least a couple seasons of mediocre play before a big jump in production in the junior or senior year (see also: Kevin Hayes). It's also much more likely with lower picks.

With Keller, he'll have a contract waiting for him after his freshman or at most sophomore year, as long as he doesn't totally suck (that is, he won't need to put up Kyle Connor or Jack Eichel sorts of numbers). At that point, it would be pretty stupid for him to spend another 2-3 years in college without a contract. If he's not ready for the NHL at that point, he'll be AHL-eligible (and if he signs after his freshman year, he'd be CHL-eligible next year, too). Basically, for Keller to go the Vesey route, he'd have to really, really dislike this franchise.
 

mouser

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The Wheeler situation is also impossible now, as I understand the current CBA. The only reason he was able to pull that off was because he played a year in the USHL after being drafted and before heading to Minnesota. I believe a player has to play four years of college hockey now to do what Vesey is doing, which is usually going to mean at least a couple seasons of mediocre play before a big jump in production in the junior or senior year (see also: Kevin Hayes). It's also much more likely with lower picks.

Nothing has changed, the Wheeler "loophole" is still available. The latest example is Matt Benning who is currently reported to be considering Edmonton and Vancouver after withdrawing from college sometime this summer. Spent one year in the USHL and 3 years at Northeastern after being drafted by Boston in 2012.
 

KG

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What's the percentage of players who sign as opposed to using the loophole? That would be interesting to know
 

Palmer2Fitz

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There is a huge difference between Keller and Wheeler. Wheeler was always a 4 year plus project. Keller has the skill to play in the NHL now, he just needs to add size.
 

OvermanKingGainer

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The Wheeler development curve makes you wonder how many prospects were given up on too early.

I think that curve is more unique to tall, skinny players growing into their bodies. A more recent comparable on my team's prospect group just finished up his senior year and signed with us when he could have pulled a Wheeler on us but didn't. Even put up Wheeler statlines.

A guy like Keller, At most I think he will need two years in NCAA. Even Gaudreau, who is similar, only needed the two years there (he played three, but was offered a contract after two)
 

Mosby

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From Twitter:

Windsor GM Warren Rychel tells Pipeline Show that Arizona has offered Clayton Keller a contract; can't understand why he hasn't taken it.

Edit: to clarify, Rychel is the one who can't understand. Not the coyotes.
 
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Grimes

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From Twitter:

Windsor GM Warren Rychel tells Pipeline Show that Arizona has offered Clayton Keller a contract; can't understand why he hasn't taken it.

Edit: to clarify, Rychel is the one who can't understand. Not the coyotes.

If he were to sign he'd go to Windsor correct? Maybe he has always had his heart set on attend university, especially Boston. His buds are going there too. Sure hope this has nothing to do with AZ and everything to do with BU.
 

ck26

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From Twitter:

Windsor GM Warren Rychel tells Pipeline Show that Arizona has offered Clayton Keller a contract; can't understand why he hasn't taken it.

Edit: to clarify, Rychel is the one who can't understand. Not the coyotes.
Did Warren Rychel get hit in the head too many times? He hasn't signed that contract because he'd rather play at BU than play for you at Windsor.

/confusion
 

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