Post-Game Talk: #69: Bruins at FLYERS, Tuesday, Mar. 10, 2020, 7:00 p.m. ET

Appleyard

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Farabee, as much as I like him, just isn’t there yet. He really struggles in the lower half of the offensive zone. Doesn’t have the size & strength yet to get to the net with the puck.

He has issues.

But he is still a legit NHL player... and one of the teams best 9 forwards right now quite comfortably.

He has played at ~3rd line level overall as a teenager and helped the team overall.
 

Fudgie the Whale

Registered User
Jun 20, 2018
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He has issues.

But he is still a legit NHL player... and one of the teams best 9 forwards right now quite comfortably.

He has played at ~3rd line level overall as a teenager and helped the team overall.

Absolutely he's a legit player, and he's going to be a stud down the line. But those issues are legitimate concerns. I don't blame them for trying to upgrade at the deadline as I think he'll be exposed over a physical 7 game series at this point in his career.
 
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FlyerFaithful17

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Feb 24, 2015
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Absolutely he's a legit player, and he's going to be a stud down the line. But those issues are legitimate concerns. I don't blame them for trying to upgrade at the deadline as I think he'll be exposed over a physical 7 game series at this point in his career.
Ideally, JVR is back by playoff time.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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He leads the league in PP goals and the PP has gone up 3% since last season. He must be doing something right. Specifically, helping to gain the zone, facilitate east west movement at the point, and get shots on net.

I assume you want ghost in his spot. Ghost flubbed a puck coming out of the zone yesterday. It happens, as it does with Provorov. I don't think Provorov is bad at it. He uses both sides of the ice, something they obviously want this year. Maybe Ghost can do that, I don't know. He wasn't asked to before.

What I do know is this is a very different PP than years past. At it's height, it was a half ice PP with 2 shooting options, a point shot (Ghost) and a high slot (Schenn) option, and a strong net front presence in Simmonds. After losing Schenn, it took a hit as they tried to replace that high slot shot, then as simmonds declined it took another hit. Ghost, in that scenario was asked to play catch with Giroux and hammer home shots. It worked because he got the shots on net and could drive when a lane presented itself.

Now, they clearly want to use the whole ice, and don't have as strong a net front presence. Ghost hasn't been as accurate (could have been the knee, but I can only go off what we know) and was never asked to distribute to his right consistently. The PP has improved from last year with Provorov, and he clearly has the coaches trust. He is absolutely good enough and the results speak for themselves.

Did you read what I wrote? I already pointed out why he has those PP goals... 4 of his 7 goals were in the first 22 games, where he was shooting % was 25.00%. That's obviously unsustainable. Since then he's come back down to Earth, 3 goals in 47 games, shooting 13.04%, which is still high.

Just to give you an idea of how inflated and unsustainable that is... over the previous 3 years on the PP, his shooting % was 2.56 and Ghosts was 6.07%. Before them, Streit's last 3 seasons here were 6.86%. Timonen's last 3 seasons here were 6.96%. From outside of the team, the two highest scoring PP defensemen over the past 3 seasons are Hedman and Carlson, who shot 6.40% and 6.80% respectively.

So, once we come to the realization that Provorov's PP goal scoring isn't sustainable, we have to look at the rest of his game to see if it's worth keeping him on the PP... and it isn't. As I mentioned before, he's too slow when moving the puck between Giroux and Voracek when they're set up and he just freezes sometimes because he has too much time and space. He doesn't move side-to-side like Ghost or Sanheim and he doesn't open up any room with his skating. He's too static and deliberate and the PP is all about fluidity and quickness. You need to get the goalie and the PKers moving. And sure, everyone lets pucks out of the zone sometimes, but for Provorov is way too often. He's just not a good PP player. There's a reason the unit was so good with Ghost until they put Giroux on the wrong side.

On top of all this, he's simply playing too much per game as it is and we need to lower his icetime to keep him fresh and healthy. The fact that can play a ton doesn't mean he should play a ton, especially if that's on a PP unit where he's not one of the best options. Let him take those 3 minutes per game off to rest, that way he's fresher at 5v5, where he's most effective.
 

Appleyard

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Absolutely he's a legit player, and he's going to be a stud down the line. But those issues are legitimate concerns. I don't blame them for trying to upgrade at the deadline as I think he'll be exposed over a physical 7 game series at this point in his career.

Even still... with a fully healthy roster (JvR+Patrick back) he should be in the line-up.

Rather have players with ~one or two glaring issues who still are ~net even than guys with no real glaring issues but death by 1000 cuts and a net negative!
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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I think Farabee is more a matter of the hole left by the absence of Lindblom and Patrick.
He's the best of the rest, but like Frost, should have just been in the AHL for a full season, then a summer training, then hit the ground running next year.
But losing a top six and a 3C leaves holes that are hard to fill. So players get rushed into action.

One reason why I think they're playing with house money this year, the pipeline is still full and a bunch of players haven't reached their peak years.
Patrick should be back next year (Lindblom 2021 if ever), Farabee and Frost far more prepared for the NHL next year, Sanheim/Myers with a year of experience under their belt and primed for more responsibility (PP2?).

The next season we lose one player to the ED but Brink and York should be close to ready, along with Zamula and maybe Kalynuk.
 

Fudgie the Whale

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Jun 20, 2018
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And yet if you take away those 7 goals they PP is still operating at a higher rate than last season. So either by personnel, or by scheme, it is improved.
 

Fudgie the Whale

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Jun 20, 2018
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Even still... with a fully healthy roster (JvR+Patrick back) he should be in the line-up.

Rather have players with ~one or two glaring issues who still are ~net even than guys with no real glaring issues but death by 1000 cuts and a net negative!

Depends on the issue. In the regular season, he's fine. In a hard, physical, 7 game series he will be exposed. The cycle on his line will be exposed, he will be exposed, and it will lower their chances of winning the series. I think this year has been great for him, and tremendous for his development, but I do not think he should be in a healthy lineup come playoffs.
 

Flyer lurker

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Feb 16, 2019
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Absolutely he's a legit player, and he's going to be a stud down the line. But those issues are legitimate concerns. I don't blame them for trying to upgrade at the deadline as I think he'll be exposed over a physical 7 game series at this point in his career.
Most should be in agreement here. Joel long term will be min 2nd line player. But because of size I could see issues in a Washington or Tampa Bay series. Still want him over Nate if JVR is healthy and play Laughton 3c/Grant 4c or Rafll 4c Off season I would love to see 10 pounds of strength of Sanheim, Farabee, and Frost for next year.
 

FlyTimmo

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Jul 10, 2013
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Absolutely he's a legit player, and he's going to be a stud down the line. But those issues are legitimate concerns. I don't blame them for trying to upgrade at the deadline as I think he'll be exposed over a physical 7 game series at this point in his career.
Wouldn't we want Farabee to get playoff experience anyway? Replacing Farabee with a worse player doesn't accomplish anything.
 

Ghosts Beer

I saw Goody Fletcher with the Devil!
Feb 10, 2014
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But he is still a legit NHL player... and one of the teams best 9 forwards right now quite comfortably.
Based on what? Points, Corsi, & xGF%?

That’s leaving out a hell of a lot of factors.

It would be nice if everything in hockey could be distilled to black & white numbers. But it’s a huge fallacy to treat these incredibly flawed, far from comprehensive metrics as if they are concrete player rating systems.

Case in point: Jordan Weal last year.
 

Magua

Doer of Hoffific Things
Apr 25, 2016
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Just going to quote myself:

Myself said:
21 defensemen have played >180 minutes on the PP this season. Here are Ivan's ranks:

Goals/60 (1/21)
Shooting% (1/21)
ixGF/60 (17/21)
Assists/60 (20/21)
First Assists/60 (21/21)
Points/60 (15/21)
xGF/60 (19/21)

If his 18.4 shooting % holds, it would be tied for the highest among defensemen in the last 3 years. For perspective, after Letang at 18.2%, 3rd place is Makar at 10.8%. That's quite the drop off. It's hard to explain that on talent alone, but even if we begin from that assumption, Provorov's individual expected goals/60 ranks 17th. He's actually scoring 4x the goals/60 that his shot locations indicate he should score. Now, that's a far from perfect statistic, but those are shot locations and shooting %s that look ripe for regression. Most of his PP goals are the seeing eye variety.

**

And with the PP issues in general (Michel, ma belle), I'm not saying his assist numbers and on-ice stats aren't a little low, but they're still essentially dead last. Does that match the eye test? The previous 3 years of data isn't irrelevant either. In the end, it's impossible to get usage like this and not produce. So, the question is: is he and will he continue to provide positive value there? How do we define positive value? Is he the best option, the convenient option, etc.?

We're going to get years more of data, so we'll see if a goal yesterday is a goal tomorrow.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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Just going to quote myself:



We're going to get years more of data, so we'll see if a goal yesterday is a goal tomorrow.
I should just save this post and repost it instead of bothering...

That way it's much quicker and you can be accused of hating Provorov and thinking he sucks, instead of me. ;)
 

renberg

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Dec 31, 2003
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PP Stats 5v4:
Ghost/Provorov
S%-5/18.92
ixG-1.69/1.88
iCF-45/65
iFF-33/43
iSCF-9/8
iHDCF-0/1
Rebounds-1/4
GF-11/30
GA-2/2

Granted the Provorov has had more time with PP1 than Ghost but its hard to argue that the PP has fallen off with Provorov on it. Provorov is a case in development on the PP whereas Gostisbehere has been on it for all of his career. So it would be expected that Ghost would be better on the PP than Provorov.
A thing that Provorov can do more effectively than Ghost is to take the puck to the net. Ghost is more of a perimeter player on the PP. Additionally, if the PP breaks down and the opponent can create a short handed rush the other way, Provorov has better defensive skills to break up that threat.
 

BackToTheBrierePatch

Nope not today.
Feb 19, 2003
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Provorov has been lucky on the PP, not good at all. An unsustainable shooting % and playing with some of the the best PP players on the planet boost his point totals. He should be off of it because it would make the PP much stronger.

He’s too slow to make decisions and move the puck, he’s predictable and deliberate in all his actions, he doesn’t create any space, and he’s also being horrible at keeping the puck in the zone.

He’s a turret on the PP. That’s it. And that’s not good enough.

Has Ghost ever been lucky?
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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What generally distinguishes the top teams is the depth where they don't have to rush young players.

We had to play TK at age 20, and he was MIA in the 2017-18 playoffs, this year he's far more ready for the playoffs and I expect will have a much bigger impact on our chances of advancing.

It's not that Farabee isn't a decent player right now, or Frost for that matter, but a team forced to play them in the top 9 just doesn't have great depth.
G - Couts - Voracek
Lindblom - Hayes - TK
Laughton - Patrick - Pitlick
would be a better top 9 for the playoffs.

But you have to play the hand you're dealt.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
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616.jpg
 
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Magua

Doer of Hoffific Things
Apr 25, 2016
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Huron of the Lakes
A thing that Provorov can do more effectively than Ghost is to take the puck to the net. Ghost is more of a perimeter player on the PP.

Provorov is an exceptional creator of rush based offense. Both in terms of exits/entries, and individually, getting the puck below the dots. And he has a tremendous pull wrister. That's pretty objective level stuff. So, I get how that bleeds into his PP evaluation.

That's at ES. On the PP? If your eye test tells you he doesn't create much in the way of passing, you're probably on the right track looking at assist rates. If your eye test tells you he's a very stationary player, you're probably on the right track again.

This is Ivan's 5v4 PP shot chart this season, mostly on PP1 (notice the extreme bunching on the center-left blue line, and only 2 shots all season below the circles.....a lot of dead zones):

SelmYKM.png


Compare this to Ghost's last 2 seasons, and I think it showcases how mobile he is patrolling the blue line and getting above/below the circles:

wtkwO12.png


MBLol4R.png
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
89,441
155,158
Pennsylvania
Provorov is an exceptional creator of rush based offense. Both in terms of exits/entries, and individually, getting the puck below the dots. And he has a tremendous pull wrister. That's pretty objective level stuff. So, I get how that bleeds into his PP evaluation.

That's at ES. On the PP? If your eye test tells you he doesn't create much in the way of passing, you're probably on the right track looking at assist rates. If your eye test tells you he's a very stationary player, you're probably on the right track again.
What do I win?

So, once we come to the realization that Provorov's PP goal scoring isn't sustainable, we have to look at the rest of his game to see if it's worth keeping him on the PP... and it isn't. As I mentioned before, he's too slow when moving the puck between Giroux and Voracek when they're set up and he just freezes sometimes because he has too much time and space. He doesn't move side-to-side like Ghost or Sanheim and he doesn't open up any room with his skating. He's too static and deliberate and the PP is all about fluidity and quickness. You need to get the goalie and the PKers moving. And sure, everyone lets pucks out of the zone sometimes, but for Provorov is way too often. He's just not a good PP player. There's a reason the unit was so good with Ghost until they put Giroux on the wrong side.
 

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