Proposal: 6 NYR deals, big and small

Discussion in 'Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk' started by bernmeister, Nov 29, 2018.

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  1. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    This year means zero for NY, it is about setting up for next season and beyond.
    They need to shed quality surplus for futures and expiring drek, leaving HC Quinn with a somewhat fixed young core to build around.

    1. Skjei, 5.25 x6 + Pionk .925 x 1 elc + DeAngelo .863,333m elc expiring, + Staal, 5.7 x 3 at half = 2.85+ Namest. at half = 2 + TB 2019 2nd which can morph into 1st. total cap 11.888,333m
    for
    Sabres 2019 1st, unprotected, + two conditional 2019 1sts from SJS and SLB as is which conditions may roll the picks into years later than 2019 + rights to RD prospect Oskaari Laaksonen [not listed signed on capfriendly] + Bogosian 5,142,857m s 2 reduced to 4.0; + cap dumps Moulson, 5.0 expiring + Beaulieu 2.4 expiring . Total cap 11.4
    Cap dif = .488,333m is negligible Rangers save, Sabes eat.

    Analysis
    Sabres have gone from pretender to contender, adding generational Orr lite in Dahlin, a rejuvenated Skinner, and a stud netminder. However, the D is too thin. In one fell swoop, Buf, which has shown visible improvement, upgrades and rejuvenates its D. Dahlin can RD with Skjei pairing, or do 1LD with Skjei making strong second pair anchor. Emerging Pionk [mostly impressive eye test] + DeA [recently NYR +/- leader] add actual righty RDs with Risto, Sabes retain rfa rights. Stall is from part of Ottawa relatively close to Buf, he knows he is not part of the rebuild, and agrees to move on. He is useful to give experience to Dahlin, playing 3LD limited minutes or spare. He is on half here, and even without that he is very cheap to buy out next year, important to Sabes for salary cap mgmt and shaping the roster = $ to resign Skinner. The TB 2nd might morph, and more feasible is Bolts buying it back [or removing the condition] so TB can be free to have options with its own 1st unrestrained.
    The cost is draft picks which is a match for Rangers, who will advance their blue chip LD prospects as soon as ready. Temporary lean on stopgaps, but that fits the e big plan.
    Beaulieu is terrible. Bogo, an unknown and overpriced, and Moulson is addition by subtraction for Sabes, as are cap dumps, but downstaters can go there with expiring or short deals. Six assets for seven, mostly youth for picks.


    2. The two conditional but likely 2019 1sts acquired in deal 1 above via Buffalo, from SJS and SLB as is [which conditions may roll the picks into years later than 2019] Bogo reduced now 4 per x 2 = 4 + Smith 4.35 x 3 = 4.35 + McQuaid 2.75m expiring at half = 1.375. total cap = 9.725
    for
    presigned William Nylander (rfa) [8 years, 6.75 per, no NMC, limited NTC begins w/4 teams he can be traded to, which expands by 4 teams every year] + Gardiner 4.05 expiring, + Marincin 800,000 expiring. Total cap = 4.85m
    the cap dif [9.725m - 4.85] is 4.475m, which is a lot of cap, but most of that would be absorbed into what Nylander would command if playing. 3 players bolster Leafs D, and McQuade they are not cemented to past this yea, with Bogo and Smith upgrades on Gardiner and Marincin. Gardiner, is expiring and either Leafs could not afford to move him without D coming back or they have no takers, so inclusion here is sensible.

    Analysis:
    Leafs want RyJo for Jones type deal, and that is not happening, due to reality of scarcity of RD league wide, including premium RDs which are not moved. They control WN as to NHL contract, but also have Matthews, Marner et al on top of a discounted but not cheap Tavares; accordingly, having too much cap in too few players is problematic, see Black Hawks as example. Further WN has other pro options for $ outside NHL, so eventually Leafs have to give, like it or not. Not trading is not an option, the question is if this is the best deal they can get. Leafs get toughness and some upgrade to bolster defense corps. Two 1sts this year is the main get.
    Rangers get a righty shot they hope is first line F material.

    3. Hayes 5.175 expiring at half = 2.5875 + NYR 2019 2nd + conditional 2020 and 2021 2nd round picks to Carolina [conditional on Fox signing] for Carolina 2019 1st, unprotected, and rights to RD Fox. Carolina eats cap dif.
    Analysis:
    Although some at the Ranger board have hoped for something where we could take on Darling’s contract as a basis to defray acquisition of Fox, does not appear NY can generate enough cap to do that.
    Hayes wants to stay w/NYR, and most want him back. My personal guess is we are gambling we can do like the Yankees and Chapman, rent him out for one year, get him back next season Hayes returns 6 years at 6m suggest 5 at 6.6m per, keeping them both thru age 32. So any team taking him, while getting a shot at enlisting him long term, likely takes him as rental only for this year’s playoffs. This is necessary to counter the many years there was a false win now mentality that pushed a kick the can m.o. to fullest, and which must be countered with these initiatives if we are to shorten the rebuild.
    The Canes can go there, if they do not overly splurge. NYR is a reasonable bet to be at best a bottom 5 team this year, so it’s 2019 2nd is not that far off from a late 1st. Carolina, bolstered by this and any other deals, projects around the middle third of the draft order. True that could be close to 10 and at the edge of the lottery, but this year’s Canes edition is already better than last year, which was near that benchmark, but lucked out with 2OA in the last draft. More likely, Canes pick between 15-20, especially if they get goaltending help. So the 1st + Hayes commands as a rental only [he’d get more if there were term] in a vacuum is a downpayment on Fox, and compensates for moving down 15-20 slots in the draft this year. And, if Carolina wants the safety option, they can hedge their risk, and if they are out of it, they can flip an unextended Hayes to an actual contender as a rental and still get a 1st +. The conditional picks address the status of Fox, currently unsigned. If he inks w/NY, then Rangers’ next 2 2nds go to Canes. That is a reasonable bet, since it is thought he wants to be on the east coast [near home but not in New England], and there would be an open path at RD for him in NY once he is done with school, which he may or may not work around if he opts to sign any time soon.

    Rangers upgrade one pick this year, and hopefully add Fox, who looked good with Lindgren at some point earlier.

    4. Namest. 4 x 2 put on LTIR w/concussion + Zucarello 4.5 expiring = 8.5m cap
    for
    Sprong .75m x 2 Schultz, 5.5 x 2 on LTIR + expiring cap dumps Cullen + Ruhwedel, both .650m each, + Pens 2019 2nd = 7.55m total cap. Dif is .95 cap savings to NY, deficit to Pitt.
    Analysis:
    The first thing to say is that this deal is strictly based on the immediate injury situation. Schultz should be effectively done for this year. Late Oct, he had severely fractured leg, and was told 4 mos min to maybe get back. If that was not overly optimistic, add some time to rehab the rust off. Maybe, he gets back for the playoffs. And how effective will he be? This year or next. I don’t think he’s done, but it’s an uphill climb IMO for him to recover form substantially by next year. Zuc recently had his bell rung but seems fine other than a nagging groin injury he has to hold off and heal. Namest., however, got concussed. As we all know, that could be short term and minimal or extensive. Like Schultz, he is a 2 yr deal, but for 1.5m less.
    I make no guarantees, I expect Schultz to be realistically out the rest of this year and beyond, even if he gets back for a cup of coffee. Namest. may get back after upwards of a month. So, w/Zuc, who plays well with Brassard, that’s some increased firepower for the stretch run. Other things being =, which they are not currently, Namest. played 1st line in TB w/Stamkos less than a year ago. That makes him a top 6; it’s not anyone’s fault Rangers have prospect depth and he is not playing 1LW or 2C for them, in which case he can push somebody down the depth chart. So he is otherwise worth a late 1st. Sprong has not fit. Zuc would ordinarily get the standard 1st for a top 6 F rental, but totality of circumstances, Pens get to use 2nd + Sprong as adequate currency.
    Rangers signed Namest. so as to not lose him for nothing. NY did well in the McDonagh trade but this JT Miller for Namest. was a concession GMJG had to make to keep that deal [we think]. NY tells Schultz get healthy, and this guy on LTIR closes the file until the summer. Zuc does not fit the youth movement rebuild, so a 2nd is what we have to take given lack of ability in other potential bidders to pay more due to need to hold onto 1sts or don’t have cap room atm. Sprong is a crap shoot. I’m not enamored with him either, but he comes with the territory.
    I believe Namest. qualifies for LTIR due to concussion. Although cap is immediately tight, Pens should be able to make this deal while they shuffle the salary deck.

    5. Zibanejad, 5.35m x 4 + Andersson .894,166m x 3 elc just started + Buchnevich, .925 elc expiring, rfa rights kick in, Georgiev elc 792,500 x 2 + Strome 3.1 x 2 then rfa kicks in + NYR 2020 1st. Total cap = 11.061,666
    for
    Tarasenko 7.5 x 5 + Allen 4.35 x 3 = 11.85m. Cap dif = 788,334 savings to Blues.

    This was not my first impulse on Zib, who unfortunately has NMC kicking in which requires trade before July 1 to defeat, and also Andersson, who I was initially hoping to repurpose into a top D prospect, preferably RD. However cap space is tight atm, so that leads us to here. I am not so sure Blues want to ‘blow it up’ and even if they do, that there is dissatisfaction w/Tarasenko or vice versa. That said, they definitely want to jettison the unmovable Allen, and need a replacement. They also need quality swag to replace Tara. Arguably the known commodity Zib (former 6OA) and unknown Andersson (7OA), coupled with a 1st [unprotected but following draft not this one] are satisfactory. This is especially so when you get Buchnevich [and there is temporary LTIR relief in his case for some welcome immediate cap flexibility], Strome who is a work in progress but was a high pick [5OA] suggesting talent, the riddance of Allen, and a young, cheap Georgiev who should be able to hold up half the duties at min, and in any event can’t be worse than Allen.
    It works for Rangers also. While NY has to be careful to avoid the trap of a small concentration of stars with very, very high salary [resulting in withdrawal pains, see Black Hawks as exhibit], they also need to add premium talent to improve Cup chances, Tara brings that. If goalie guru Benoit Allaire can resurrect Allen, great, otherwise NY will eat cost of him in the A.

    6. Claesson .7m expiring + Fogarty .708,750m + Bigras .874125m expiring RFA rights retained + Pedrie expiring elc .767,500m for
    JFK (Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson) .916,667m short hand math rough cap is 3m, less .9m+ is 2m dif, which Bruins can handle.
    This is due to the injury situation in Boston, where 4 Bruin defensemen, 2 each side, are on LTIR. So B’s allow NY to upgrade on an F prospect, which is a small wince they can swallow, to get a replacement 4th liner and a bottom pair [Claesson playing well now, Bigras has NHL prior experience and is playing well in the A], plus RD prospect Pedrie, who can add depth as a stopgap while Beantown heals up.

    The follow up...
    Kreider, I do a 5 year, 5.6 extension. As I said, Hayes I think is 3-2 or 3-1 to return after the dust settles, if enough $ [6 years at 6] is on the table, and that should be the case b’c it enables NY to expedite its rebuild. Next season: Kravtsov on elc max. Panarin, 6 years 9.5. Possible return of Oscar Lindberg, who is UFA.
    I have pushed for Nieves as your stopgap 1C [only b’c he should be at Kreider’s hip, and Kreider is the 1LW]. The point is moot as he is playing thru training camp concussion and may/may not be able to step up to top pivot [though should still be able to cut bottom 6]. In any event, Kravtsov, Howden, and Chytil are all candidates to 1C starting next season and beyond.
    Rangers have strategic adds for future, w/3 LD guys they hope are knocking on the door soon — Lindgren, Rykov, and Hajek — with Day at the A, hoping to knock on the door thereafter. Miller is a couple of years out.

    Kreider - Kravtsov - Nylander
    Panarin - Hayes - Tarasenko
    Chytil - Howden - Fast
    Vesey - Nieves -JFK
    Gettinger Lindberg - Sprong

    when the prospects are ready
    Hajek - Shattenkirk
    Rykov - possibly Schultz
    Lindgren - Fox
    with RD prospects like Keane, Laaksonen and LD like Day, Miller in the pipeline.
    The above is to start, does not include FA adds. It is thought Hajek can switch to RD if nec.
    In net, Hank and Shesty
    NY would have its own, the Sabres, and Canes 2019 1sts

    til tom.
     
  2. Colt55

    Colt55 Registered User

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    Blues say no.
     
  3. Kcb12345

    Kcb12345 Registered User

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  4. sabrescupbound

    sabrescupbound Registered User

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    Huge no from Buffalo. That's plain rediculas.
     
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  5. MinJerkBen

    MinJerkBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    No way Carolina deals an unprotected 1st and Fox for soon to be UFA Hayes and a handful of 2nds. We’ll sign Fox at the end of this year and keep our 1st.
     
  6. Ace

    Ace Registered User

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    Do the Rangers at least offer Buffalo a bottle of lube first?
     
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  7. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Fair enough.
    There was a presumption if enuf on the table, moving Tara. would have to be considered.

    If most Blues fans agree, NY will go to plan B for those guys.
    Thanks for the feedback.

    calling it a night
    will respond in the am
     
  8. The Mentalist

    The Mentalist Registered User

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    Toronto says NO.
     
  9. Mitch nylander

    Mitch nylander One of the biggest fans from a bipolar fanbase

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    I think all teams say no.

    But dang that's alot of writing for one thread.
     
  10. Alluckks

    Alluckks Registered User

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    Glorious

    I say yes to everything for all parties
     
  11. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    honestly surprised to hear that.
    You've finally arrived, but I thought I heard somewhere you guys were begging for backline upgrade.
    This is instant help in that regard, no waiting for the draft calvary to develop and then arrive.

    Again, thanks for feedback
     
  12. Ace

    Ace Registered User

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    My favorite part is doing Buffalo the favor of taking Moulson...who isn’t there and whose money comes clean off at the end of the year anyway.

    Gives them the money to pay Skinner...

    They have the money to pay Skinner. Moulson and Pominville coming off the books does more than that alone.
     
  13. Zats Muccarello

    Zats Muccarello Grinder

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    Bern strikes again
     
  14. CamelToews

    CamelToews Registered User

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    Big no all round
     
  15. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    IF IF IF
    you can actually sign Fox, then I agree that is the smarter move.
    There is precedent [Hayes, Vesey] and others sitting out til they get to decide where they wanna go.
    We'll see if Fox signs and where, and in the meantime find another rental home for Hayes.

    Thanks for reply
     
  16. DingDongCharlie

    DingDongCharlie Registered User

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    When is the hardcover edition of this prosposal hitting shelves?
     
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  17. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Thanks, let's see if Nylander is in fact moved and what is final get he commands.
     
  18. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    I thought I didn't see the horrific threads from people I have on ignore.
     
  19. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Alluckks, I knew I could rely on you.
    Seriously, thanks for reply.
     
  20. EdJovanovski

    EdJovanovski Registered User

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  21. Howie Hodge

    Howie Hodge All tight lips and cold feet

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    Buffalo says go pound salt.

    We're positioned well for the short term and long term. This does nothing but undercut that.

    But thanks for playing.

    The crock pot, complimentary ricearoni, and gift certificate are yours to keep......
     
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  22. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Looking to get an agent, have been crushed/too busy, so in the meantime have your people call my people (me) and we'll talk.
    lol
     
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  23. MinJerkBen

    MinJerkBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    I’d be more worried about not signing Fox any other year, but I think he will see the wisdom of signing here this year and getting paid and burning the first of his ELC years vs going to UFA the year of a lockout without any money.
     
  24. DougGilmour93

    DougGilmour93 Registered User

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    Worst and most outlandish proposals I have ever witnessed on HF boards. Makes no sense whatsoever.


     
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  25. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    to each their own
     
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