Speculation: 6 In 5 Thread 2017/18 (& Playoff Prediction)

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
Sep 5, 2013
37,630
10,440
16blvk3.jpg

I have a tough time believing the Oilers have a 7.59% chance of making the playoffs in the west. Sportsclubstats has them at 0.4%
 

Gurilla

former goal scorer
Jan 28, 2015
2,453
1,722
Winnipeg
I have a tough time believing the Oilers have a 7.59% chance of making the playoffs in the west. Sportsclubstats has them at 0.4%

I think each site has their own way of drawing up the odds, money puck for example runs 100,000 simulations for the rest of the season factoring in a bunch of variables
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
Sep 5, 2013
37,630
10,440
I think each site has their own way of drawing up the odds, money puck for example runs 100,000 simulations for the rest of the season factoring in a bunch of variables

It's the variables that matter. Sport club uses goal differential as it's primary weighting factor.

It's more just the basic math. The Oilers have 48 points in their first 50 games. In order to get to 95 points they would need 47 points in their final 32 games. That's a 120 point pace. Presidents Trophy pace.
 

Neuf

Leaving HFBoards for now
Dec 17, 2016
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Avg Points / 5 Games
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Points Above 6 in 5
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Total Points
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Pace / 82 Games
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Record Last 5 Games
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Amazing that even with these stats, the central us tight .
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
It’s a little early and the coffee hasn’t kicked in yet, but what this is telling me is, if the Jets play at least .500 the rest of the way they are essentially guaranteed a playoff spot?
Yup.

Basically, I think that short of calamity, the Jets are a "lock".
 

YWGinYYZ

Registered User
Jul 3, 2011
28,480
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Toronto
It’s a little early and the coffee hasn’t kicked in yet, but what this is telling me is, if the Jets play at least .500 the rest of the way they are essentially guaranteed a playoff spot?

As Whileee states, spot on, yep. That would be such a shitty record compared to the way they've played that we should probably pivot to discussing home ice advantage, and who our opponents will be.
 

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
31,529
38,962
Winnipeg
As Whileee states, spot on, yep. That would be such a ****ty record compared to the way they've played that we should probably pivot to discussing home ice advantage, and who our opponents will be.
Yep. My thinking is we likely end up 2nd behind Nashville. They are sitting with a higher PG% with more experience. I'd take 2nd with home ice advantage against either the Blues or Stars. Get through a series and then let the chips fall where they may.
 

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
2,113
1,038
Winnipeg
I guess this is what happens when you never loose 3 games in a row clean all season.... And even then we only lost 3 in a row.... Once?

With Nashville's schedule and I believe we still have 2 games against them I don't see why we can't lock up 1st in the central.

Also, it appears we have somehow made up ground on Vegas slowly. 1st in the west isn't out of the equation either IMO.

We need to get healthy at some point here right?
 
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surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
48,728
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Game 54 / ARI / W
Points Last 5 Games
8​
Avg Points / 5 Games
6.8​
Points Above 6 in 5
+8.2
Total Points
73​
Pace / 82 Games
110​
Record Last 5 Games
3-0-2​
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Amazing that even with these stats, the central us tight .

There is starting to be some separation. We are 6 up on third in the division with a game in hand, 7 up on fourth with equal games played, 10 up on 5th, 11 up on 6th and 17 up on Chicago.

Even if the teams trailing us win their games in hand outside of the Preds the best they can get to is 8 and 7 points back.
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
Sep 5, 2013
37,630
10,440
We're up to 98% in McCurdy's model now. Also 98% in the Athletic and 99.2% in sporstclubstats

IMG_0538.png

IMG_0539.png
 

DashingDane

Paul Maurice <3
Dec 16, 2014
3,359
5,102
Los Angeles
Just scrolled through this thread and now I can't stop smiling. What a wonderful season to be a Jets fan! Thanks for starting my morning off right :D
 

Neuf

Leaving HFBoards for now
Dec 17, 2016
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Points Last 5 Games
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Points Above 6 in 5
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Total Points
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Pace / 82 Games
108​
Record Last 5 Games
3-1-1​
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Neuf

Leaving HFBoards for now
Dec 17, 2016
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Game 56 / NYR / L
Points Last 5 Games
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Avg Points / 5 Games
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Points Above 6 in 5
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Pace / 82 Games
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Record Last 5 Games
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Neuf

Leaving HFBoards for now
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Points Last 5 Games
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Avg Points / 5 Games
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Points Above 6 in 5
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Total Points
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Pace / 82 Games
107​
Record Last 5 Games
3-2-0​
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