Post-Game Talk: #54 | FLYERS (A) vs. Capitals (H) | Friday, May, 7 2021 | 4-2 win

[macleish1974]

So basically, in addition to being an elite sniper and on Giroux's level offensively, he's also elite defensively? Damn... Fletcher really aced that contract, huh?

Jokes aside, yeah, Patrick hasn't been good, but most of that is that he's not producing almost anything offensively. People are going overboard when talking about how bad he's been, while simultaneously overrating Laughton based on that fluke lucky scoring to start the year. Like I said, they're way closer than most will admit.

Speaking of scoring, since some like to constantly go on about how little Patrick's produced... over the past 30 games at even strength, Laughton and Patrick have identical 0.45 points/60. Elite sniper Laughton has 0 goals and 3 assists in that time.

Patrick, has no identity. A lost soul. He goes over the boards and pretends he is the second pick in a pretty good draft.

 

[Striiker]

What are Patrick's power play stats this season out of curiosity?

Not good.

2 goals
1 assist
91:22 TOI

Than again, I think most people’s PP stats are pretty awful. For example, Giroux has the lowest PP points/60 of his entire career. Jake has 4th worst.

 

[macleish1974]

Elliot was very good last night. Allison has great vision and a great shot. Defensively he has to learn a bit more. York was great in the beginning, but once Washington started rolling he was good, except on the Oshie goal. Provorov had a very bad night. The rest of the team was fair to middling on most shifts in the 3rd period. Once Washington started rolling again, crossbars and posts helped out on the Flyers side.

 

[Striiker]

Patrick, has no identity. A lost soul. He goes over the boards and pretends he is the second pick in a pretty good draft.

Again, I’m not saying Patrick’s been good at all. He looks like he has less than zero confidence and isn't playing well.

The point is that Laughton has been almost the same player for most of the year, except he’s had way better luck and the perceptions of the two are drastically different due to agendas by certain posters.

Neither of them are responsible for having one of the best or one of the worst on-ice save percentages in the league, which is what explains the drastically different +/-. But again, everyone knows that stat is completely worthless, so it’s only being used dishonestly.

In the last 30 games...
.970 sv% for Laughton
.824 sv% for Patrick
That’ll explain it.

And as @Magua said, it’s obviously not a reflection of defensive quality, since Giroux and Couturiers are terrible too and Laughtons is 2nd highest in the entire league at ES.

 

[deadhead]

Laughton has been fine, he's had a streak of bad puck luck, but he's still on a 29 ES point pace for the season, solid production for a 3rd line forward who is also on your 1st PK pair and is your best forechecker. Over the last three seasons 1.74 pp/60, which is fine for his role.

Patrick should be treated as a special case, not just b/c of the migraines, etc., but because he has some weird puck luck this season:
GF -xGF per 60 (5x5 SVA):

Voracek +1.01
Farabee +0.97
Couts +0.92
Giroux +0.91
JVR +0.85
TK +0.24
Laughton +0.14
Lindblom -0.11
NAK -0.12
Hayes -0.20
Bunnaman -0.36
Allison -0.42
Patrick -0.59

Now some of this is the quality of linemates, 4th line guys should have worse numbers b/c linemates struggle to finish

So as a check, let's look at the top scorers and their numbers the last five years before this season:
Couts +0.82, +0.71, +1.13, +0.28, +0.36 - big jump when he moved to the 1st line
Giroux +0.29, +1.00, +1.14, -0.27, +0.05, -0.06
Farabee +0.74
Voracek +0.81, +0.24, +0.39, -0.28, -0.20, +0.11
TK +0.17, +0.57, +0.73, +0.35
JVR +0.46, +0.41, +0.04, +0.82, -0.16
Hayes +0.01, +0.66, +0.34, +0.19, +0.49
Laughton +1.33, +0.17, -0.41,
Patrick +0.25, -0.18

 

[Striiker]

Again, I’m not saying Patrick’s been good at all.

The point is that Laughton has been almost the same player for most of the year, except he’s had way better luck and the perceptions of the two are drastically different due to agendas by certain posters.

Neither of them are responsible for having one of the best or one of the worst on-ice save percentages in the league, which is what explains the drastically different +/-. But again, everyone knows that stat is completely worthless, so it’s only being used dishonestly.

In the last 30 games...
.970 sv% for Laughton
.824 sv% for Patrick
That’ll explain it.

And as @Magua said, it’s obviously not a reflection of defensive quality, since Giroux and Couturiers are terrible too and Laughtons is 2nd highest in the entire league at ES.

To add to this and further show that the difference in raw goals against is not a valid way to compare their play...

Patrick also has lower...
shot attempts against
shots on net against
expected goals against
scoring chances against
high danger shot attempts against
... than Laughton during that 30 game sample.

The only thing that's worse is save percentage, which is obviously not something within his individual control.

Even if someone wanted to try to build the argument that he's responsible for the worse save percentage because when he's on the ice the opponent is getting better/more chances, that would quickly be shut down by both the eye test and all the stats mentioned above. He's simply had shit luck, while Laughton's had insane luck.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

York was good last night. Cannot get on him for the Oshie goal. Oshie makes many defensemen look foolish when he has the puck in high danger areas.
His skating is just so smooth.

 

[deadhead]

Frost (before he got hurt), Laczynski, Allison, York and Zamula all looked NHL ready, that is, ignoring the learning curve, physically they look like they can play with the big boys - some guys come up and it's obvious they're overmatched or lack the required skill set. These five are ready for the bright lights next year - doesn't mean they won't struggle at times, but it won't be for lack of talent.

Although Jackson Cates isn't as talented, he also looked comfortable on NHL ice and has a good shot at making the roster.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Again, I’m not saying Patrick’s been good at all. He looks like he has less than zero confidence and isn't playing well.

The point is that Laughton has been almost the same player for most of the year, except he’s had way better luck and the perceptions of the two are drastically different due to agendas by certain posters.

Neither of them are responsible for having one of the best or one of the worst on-ice save percentages in the league, which is what explains the drastically different +/-. But again, everyone knows that stat is completely worthless, so it’s only being used dishonestly.

In the last 30 games...
.970 sv% for Laughton
.824 sv% for Patrick
That’ll explain it.

And as @Magua said, it’s obviously not a reflection of defensive quality, since Giroux and Couturiers are terrible too and Laughtons is 2nd highest in the entire league at ES.

Leon Draisaitl has the top on ice save percentage in the league this year. He’s probably one of the worst defensive players in the league. He obviously racks up points but the fact that he’s getting goaltending as well is the reason he leads the league in +/-.

 

[Striiker]

Leon Draisaitl has the top on ice save percentage in the league this year. He’s probably one of the worst defensive players in the league. He obviously racks up points but the fact that he’s getting goaltending as well is the reason he leads the league in +/-.

 

[BritainStix]

Leon Draisaitl has the top on ice save percentage in the league this year. He’s probably one of the worst defensive players in the league. He obviously racks up points but the fact that he’s getting goaltending as well is the reason he leads the league in +/-.

If you have the puck and dominate shifts consistently, the likely scenario is that you are giving up very low chance shots from knackered players.

From what I've seen, him and Mcdavid have simply been picking on the entire division.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

If you have the puck and dominate shifts consistently, the likely scenario is that you are giving up very low chance shots from knackered players.

From what I've seen, him and Mcdavid have simply been picking on the entire division.

He has some of the worst defensive metrics in the league though. He’s a great offensive player but you get your scoring opportunities against him too when he’s on the ice. It’s been that way for years now.

It’s not that uncommon. Guys like Ovechkin, Kane, Kessel, Tavares, etc. have been some of the worst defensive players in the league by analytics over the years.

Edit: He’s not exactly a guy that tilts the ice 55%+ of the time which is generally what a good possession/chance creator does consistently. Even his relative stats aren’t hugely positive that top play drivers generally have.

 

[TB87]

He has some of the worst defensive metrics in the league though. He’s a great offensive player but you get your scoring opportunities against him too when he’s on the ice. It’s been that way for years now.

It’s not that uncommon. Guys like Ovechkin, Kane, Kessel, Tavares, etc. have been some of the worst defensive players in the league by analytics over the years.

Edit: He’s not exactly a guy that tilts the ice 55%+ of the time which is generally what a good possession/chance creator does consistently. Even his relative stats aren’t hugely positive that top play drivers generally have.

Draisaitl is basically Patrick Kane as a C/W. It’s wild how poor he is defensively.

 

[wankstifier]

Provorov and now York passing Sanheim on the PP depth chart is hilarious

 

[flyersnorth]

Patrick looks like a player who has never had to work hard to reach his status. Like the high school kid who naturally gets good grades but gets a rude awakening in college when he actually has to put in the work.

Allison looks like a kid who has had to work hard for EVERYTHING.

The difference on the ice between the two is night and day.

 

[TCTC]

Patrick looks like a player who has never had to work hard to reach his status. Like the high school kid who naturally gets good grades but gets a rude awakening in college when he actually has to put in the work.

Allison looks like a kid who has had to work hard for EVERYTHING.

The difference on the ice between the two is night and day.

Absolutely. It's night and day. Allison is highly motivated. Patrick is just going through the motions.

If Frost shows he can take the next step next season, there quickly may be no room anymore for Patrick.

 

[Starat327]

Shit takes out in force today. Must be the end of the season

 

[Deadpool8812]

Imagine your coach saying these games our meaningless, and then watching him not put out a young player with 2 goals while the other team pulls their goalie

You think that would sit well with the players?

 

[04hockey]

Patrick looks like a player who has never had to work hard to reach his status. Like the high school kid who naturally gets good grades but gets a rude awakening in college when he actually has to put in the work.

Allison looks like a kid who has had to work hard for EVERYTHING.

The difference on the ice between the two is night and day.

wish I had said that.....

 

[flyersnorth]

Absolutely. It's night and day. Allison is highly motivated. Patrick is just going through the motions.

If Frost shows he can take the next step next season, there quickly may be no room anymore for Patrick.

The thing is, Patrick has all the tools to be a star. It’s up to him how far those tools take him.

 

[Curufinwe]

Games after being eliminated from playoff contention are meaningless in terms of the standings, which is what he actually said. Not reading too much into small sample sizes is accepted wisdom here, except when the coach says it. Some people even claim player performances in preseason games should be ignored entirely and we should pretend they never happened because they don’t affect the standings.

“It’s good experience for him,” Vigneault said, “I will say, though, on a personal level, I don’t put a lot of stock if a player in these games has a good showing or a bad showing. Our games for a while have been meaningless in the standings, and I’ve always felt you don’t put a lot of stock in these games.”

Added Vigneault: “It’s good to see that your guys are pros, that they’re trying to do the right things. But if a guy would play extremely well under these conditions, I would wait and have a bigger sample size to have a better assessment of his play.”

 

[renberg]

Why did it take this long into the season to start to drop the center lower on defense and knock off the reliance on stretch passes? For a weak defensive club this should have been a strategic change months ago. Might have kept Hart out of needing counseling.

 

[tucson83]

Imagine your coach saying these games our meaningless, and then watching him not put out a young player with 2 goals while the other team pulls their goalie

You think that would sit well with the players?

if it doesnt motivate them to earn their spots in training camp and preseason then they are not nhl players, if you want av to cater to these players for personal reasons, then it's going to be groundhog day for another 20 years of complaining about not winning a cup because you dont want coaches to hold players accountable. if you want to win a cup then coaches have to hold players accountable, that's what successful coaches do.

what teams win cups when coaches hold players hands?

 

[VladDrag]

To add to this and further show that the difference in raw goals against is not a valid way to compare their play...

Patrick also has lower...
shot attempts against
shots on net against
expected goals against
scoring chances against
high danger shot attempts against
... than Laughton during that 30 game sample.

The only thing that's worse is save percentage, which is obviously not something within his individual control.

Even if someone wanted to try to build the argument that he's responsible for the worse save percentage because when he's on the ice the opponent is getting better/more chances, that would quickly be shut down by both the eye test and all the stats mentioned above. He's simply had shit luck, while Laughton's had insane luck.

Is this raw or /60? I am not looking.

 

[Striiker]

Is this raw or /60? I am not looking.

Raw

I used this since +/- uses raw totals, not rates.