50 Points to win the South East?

DancesWithWookies

Registered User
Aug 22, 2011
1,624
620
I think the way things are going, we could win the south east with only 50 points, perhaps less than the 8th place team.

Winnipeg: 38 Points, 14 Games Remaining, Need 6 wins for 50 Points (Go 6-8)
Carolina: 32 Points, 17 Games Remaining, Need 9 wins for 50 Points (Go 9-8)
Washington: 31 Points, 15 Games Remaining, Need 9.5 wins for 50 Points (Go 9-5-1)

I'm not including Tampa and Florida for obvious reasons. Its just so much easier and more likely for the Jets to reach or exceed 50 Points than either Carolina or Washington. The Jets can be below .500 for the rest of the season while the Canes and Caps must play above .500.

Thoughts?
 
Last edited:

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
BGVwkvWCEAAjF9n.jpg:large

BGVy1lRCYAAzHrr.jpg:large
 
Last edited:

Gnova

CowboysR^2
Sep 6, 2011
9,371
3,370
Jetland
I think the way things are going, we could win the south east with only 50 points, perhaps less than the 8th place team.

Winnipeg: 38 Points, 14 Games Remaining, Need 6 wins for 50 Points (Go 6-8)
Carolina: 32 Points, 17 Games Remaining, Need 9 wins for 50 Points (Go 9-8)
Washington: 31 Points, 15 Games Remaining, Need 9.5 wins for 50 Points (Go 9-5-1)

I'm not including Tampa and Florida for obvious reasons. Its just so much easier and more likely for the Jets to reach or exceed 50 Points than either Carolina or Washington. The Jets can be below .500 for the rest of the season while the Canes and Caps must play above .500.

Thoughts?

At the start of the season I figured that 52 points would be enough to make the playoffs. I still think that number will end up being the cutoff for 8th place.

As sad as it sounds there is a good chance that 50 points would be enough for the Jets to win the division. I don't think 50 points would be enough for the Canes or Caps to win it though.

The Cane schedule in April is really really tough.
The Caps aren't good enough to go on the type of run they need to go on.

In the remaining 14 games this season the Jets play eight teams that will likely not make the playoffs (not including the Canes which would make it 10).
 

bazaaa*

Guest
I think there's a good chance Wash is more likely to go 9-5-1 than Carolina to go 9-8.
 

heilongjetsfan

Registered User
Jul 4, 2011
3,591
1,578
just before I found this thread, I was looking at our schedule coming up, and 10-4 is definitely possible. that would be losses vs. Pittsburgh, NYR and 2 vs. Montreal. It's just spit-balling, but it's exciting that we have a division title and a respectable points total within reach at this point.
 

JMT21

I Give A Dam!
Aug 8, 2011
1,070
0
In My House
FWIW : here's a look at the 3 schedules from April 6th - 20th.


JETS : Flyers-Sabres-Panthers-Lightning-Canes-Islanders (ALL AT HOME)

CANES : Rangers-Bruins-Penguins-Capitals-Bruins-Senators-Jets (3 home - 4 away)

CAPITALS : Panthers-Lightning-Montreal-Canes-Lightning-Leafs-Senators (4 home - 3 away)

If the Jets go 3-3 during that period....

Canes need to go 6-1 or 5-0-2 to make up the points

Caps need to go 6-0-1 to do the same.
 

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
31,519
38,925
Winnipeg
Just going 500 will give them 52 points and an 80+ % chance for the playoffs. 8-6 gives them close to 100% chance, anything less would be very worrisome.
 

Guerzy

I'm a fricken baby
Jan 16, 2005
39,854
3,121
Anything is possible with Carolina right now as they still have 3 games in hand. They're at an all time low at this point, let's hope they do not wake up from it.

Washington, they scare me. Had we not have gift wrapped them 4 points last week things may be a little different, but I think Washington can still go on a run here to win the division. It will be tough, but I can't count them out yet.

We have 14 games remaining, even if we were to go 7-7 and finish out at .500, we would sit with 52 points.

Washington has 15 games left, even if they were to go on a super run of 11-3-1, they would finish with 54 points, just 2 points up on us.

So, you can see how much of a hill Washington has to climb in order to win the division even if we slide and play .500 hockey the rest of the way. Our chances are good. Not great, but quite good. I feel we can play better than just .500 hockey, especially with 7 of our final 9 games at home.

I do not want to get ahead of myself here, but if we do not win the Southeast Division, there is absolutely nobody to blame but ourselves.
 

winterpeg

Sharp Dressed Man
Feb 20, 2013
1,211
0
Winnipeg
I do not want to get ahead of myself here, but if we do not win the Southeast Division, there is absolutely nobody to blame but ourselves.
Exactly. We haven't locked it up yet, but we've put ourselves in a position where if we want to consider ourselves a real playoff team, we better lock it up before the season is out. We have a decent division lead going into a stretch at the end of the season that's just about one big home-stand, against primarily teams that aren't strong enough to be sitting in a playoff position.

We can go 7-7 and make the playoffs, and likely win the division, but this is the kind of stretch where true contenders don't just hang on, they go 10-4 (10-2-2?) and come into the playoffs on a tear. So I'd really like to see us go 9-5 or 8-4-2 or something of the sort. Build confidence and chemistry and hit the first round flying.
 

EpicGingy

Registered User
Jul 30, 2012
7,903
6,311
Ontario
If we win against Carolina on Saturday, I think we'll lock it up.

From that point on we're perfectly capable of getting the minimum required record, and we obviously deny our closest division rival 2 points.
 

ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
Sponsor
Mar 10, 2010
34,818
30,934
Anything is possible with Carolina right now as they still have 3 games in hand. They're at an all time low at this point, let's hope they do not wake up from it.

Washington, they scare me. Had we not have gift wrapped them 4 points last week things may be a little different, but I think Washington can still go on a run here to win the division. It will be tough, but I can't count them out yet.

We have 14 games remaining, even if we were to go 7-7 and finish out at .500, we would sit with 52 points.

Washington has 15 games left, even if they were to go on a super run of 11-3-1, they would finish with 54 points, just 2 points up on us.


So, you can see how much of a hill Washington has to climb in order to win the division even if we slide and play .500 hockey the rest of the way. Our chances are good. Not great, but quite good. I feel we can play better than just .500 hockey, especially with 7 of our final 9 games at home.

I do not want to get ahead of myself here, but if we do not win the Southeast Division, there is absolutely nobody to blame but ourselves.

Guerzy you have made a good point. Up until last night Washington was looking good but then they dump one at home to the Isles (?) and we win on the road in Carolina and their hill gets "REALLY STEEP". Just like us chasing last year anything is possible but Washington can't make any mistakes and their margin or error is just too narrow now after last night IMHO..."IF" we keep focused and don't go on a losing skid of any sort.

From here on out we don't really have to do anything this franchise hasn't done for the past three season from here on out and we are doing this with a more experienced hungry group....We have put ourselves squarely in the poll position
 

StronGeer

Registered User
Jan 25, 2013
10,196
1
Down by the bay
10 of the 14 games remaining are against teams currently out of the playoffs. None of whom are really "heating up". Washington is the only one of them at 0.500 in the last 10 games. Playoffs are uber do-able. Especially when you consider that we only play 4 games against current playoff teams, we find ourselves in this position having played a bunch of playoff teams to this point.
 

mzappa

Jets fans in space
Jun 27, 2011
4,746
263
Yes, We win Saturday and we got it. I don't see the Jets going lower than 5-7 (in regulation) down the stretch. Even a 3-5-4 minimum at that point should lock it. But check back here in T-minus 3-to-4 weeks.....:nod:

If we win against Carolina on Saturday, I think we'll lock it up.

From that point on we're perfectly capable of getting the minimum required record, and we obviously deny our closest division rival 2 points.
 

PerryPooley

Registered User
Dec 28, 2011
1,453
359
I would be very pleased to see the Jets win the Southeast Division, such as it is and despite the inevitable shortened season asterisk.
Jets 1.0 never came close to winning a division, and it would be cool to have a banner to hang in the MTS. It would also be quaint to have a reminder of our SE division "roots" years from now.
 

sting13

Registered User
Jul 30, 2011
1,310
382
50 points might do it but the key is to win points against division teams.
We have 2 games left with Carolina, you win both in regulation time, you pick
up 4 points and take away 4 from them.
 

thereturn

Registered User
Jul 10, 2011
421
31
Winnipeg
The Jets are quite capable of going 4-8-2 so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I do agree that we shouldn't count our chickens before they hatch, but actually so far our worst 14 game stretch this year was 6-8.

There was a point where we had a stretch of 4-8 (I think it was somewhere in the middle of this that we needed to fire all the coaches, GM, Mick E Moose, relocate the Ice Caps, trade Kane, and buy out Pavs), but then we won our next three. :)

Winning the Division would be incredible, but I would also kinda like to not have less points than the 6 seed... lets keep it rolling.
 

knorthern knight

Registered User
Mar 18, 2011
4,120
0
GTA
According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Winnipeg.html there's a very fine line between being in or out of the playoffs. Finishing the season with 46 points means less than 1% chance of playoffs. Finishing with 55 points means over 99% chance. This only applies to the weak SE division. Here's the standings in terms of PMGP (Points Minus Games Played). This accounts for the fact that teams have played anywhere from 31 to 34 games. The standings are based on the conference points and games played. I'm ignoring division champs getting automatic seeds. The real world...

TEAM | PMGP | Comments
Pittsburgh|18
Montreal|14|18 ROW
Boston|14|17 ROW
Ottawa|9
Toronto|6
Winnipeg|4|17 ROW
New Jersey|4|13 ROW
NY Rangers|3
Carolina|1
NY Islanders|0
Washington|-2
Buffalo|-3
Tampa Bay|-4|14 ROW
Philadelphia|-4|12 ROW
Florida|-10

I'd like to see a safety margin between us and the NY City trio, in case the Canes go on a tear. While division champ would be nice, 7th or 8th beats 9th or 10th anytime. And now, for your entertainment, "Next Year Land"

TEAM | PMGP | Comments | TEAM | PMGP | Comments
Anaheim|15||Chicago|21
Vancouver|9||Minnesota|10
Los Angeles|6||Winnipeg|4|17 ROW
San Jose|4||St Louis|4|15 ROW
Edmonton|-1||Dallas|1|14 ROW
Calgary|-2|13 ROW|Nashville|1|12 ROW
Phoenix|-2|10 ROW|Colorado|-6
 

sting13

Registered User
Jul 30, 2011
1,310
382
According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Winnipeg.html there's a very fine line between being in or out of the playoffs. Finishing the season with 46 points means less than 1% chance of playoffs. Finishing with 55 points means over 99% chance. This only applies to the weak SE division. Here's the standings in terms of PMGP (Points Minus Games Played). This accounts for the fact that teams have played anywhere from 31 to 34 games. The standings are based on the conference points and games played. I'm ignoring division champs getting automatic seeds. The real world...

TEAM | PMGP | Comments
Pittsburgh|18
Montreal|14|18 ROW
Boston|14|17 ROW
Ottawa|9
Toronto|6
Winnipeg|4|17 ROW
New Jersey|4|13 ROW
NY Rangers|3
Carolina|1
NY Islanders|0
Washington|-2
Buffalo|-3
Tampa Bay|-4|14 ROW
Philadelphia|-4|12 ROW
Florida|-10

I'd like to see a safety margin between us and the NY City trio, in case the Canes go on a tear. While division champ would be nice, 7th or 8th beats 9th or 10th anytime. And now, for your entertainment, "Next Year Land"

TEAM | PMGP | Comments | TEAM | PMGP | Comments
Anaheim|15||Chicago|21
Vancouver|9||Minnesota|10
Los Angeles|6||Winnipeg|4|17 ROW
San Jose|4||St Louis|4|15 ROW
Edmonton|-1||Dallas|1|14 ROW
Calgary|-2|13 ROW|Nashville|1|12 ROW
Phoenix|-2|10 ROW|Colorado|-6

You can't compare to next year as the schedule would be a great deal different,
playing different teams.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->