50-goal season watch

Axel574

Registered User
Dec 9, 2015
1,742
1,161
Now all the "passengers" are off board, only real contenders stayed.
All-Star break update:

PlayerGPGPaceG/GPS%S%
Career
S%
Growth
1Ovechkin5037600.7418.912.649%
2Skinner4830510.6319.611.373%
3Tavares4930500.6116.913.228%
4Point4930500.6123.617.238%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Close:
McDavid (Pace 48), Landeskog (Pace 48), Atkinson (Pace 47).
No flaming / trolling here: I honestly don't think JT will make it if he doesn't play with Marner the rest of the season.

Matthews scored as soon as they switched lines.
 
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Dzonna

Registered User
Mar 28, 2017
1,034
430
Just to see Point's name up there hanging with the big dogs brings a 'proud mama' tear to this old Lightning fan's eyes. :DD

Sure, Ovi will undoubtably win the Rocket as he's just been absolutely phenomenal forever, but it's been great to see Point's development into a top forward in this League and into our premiere shutdown center.

It would be fantastic to see Point hit 50 goals.

I admire this guy. If he does hit 48-50 goals I def curious to see what he will sign for (and what kind of magic lightning management will pull. Speaking from someone who is worried about his own team.
 

tny760

Registered User
Mar 12, 2017
18,979
19,762
i think the regression to the mean argument is due here

you're not gonna shoot at a 20%+ clip for long, i think that chart shakes up a lot by season's end

ovi is always the wildcard imo
 

Durrr

Registered User
Sep 11, 2012
5,592
413
I don't know ... point stands either way which is Marner drives the play on TOR. JT benefited from Marner, not the other way around. My opinion of course.

Oh I agree that he drives the play, I'm just saying that the PP line was the same regardless of which line Marner was on at even strength.
 

Hockey4Lyfe

Registered User
Feb 26, 2018
6,601
4,093
Wish Ovie wasn't taking a game off. A 60 goal year would look ridiculous at this point in his career. According to a lot of hf posters (see Crosby fan boys and pens fans) circa 2011 the lazy fatty would be washed out of the league by now.

Not sure why every Ovechkin thread goes the route of Crosby fans and pens fans hating on it? He’s a goal scorer. That’s what he does.

Crosby and Ovechkin are two completely different players. I prefer Crosby because he’s an all around player. Some people prefer Ovechkin because he can shoot a puck.

The argument will go on forever. But there’s no need to throw Crosby into a thread that’s about 50 goal scorers and nothing to do with him.
 

SlickHands

Registered User
Apr 11, 2014
506
429
Cleveland, Ohio
Wish Ovie wasn't taking a game off. A 60 goal year would look ridiculous at this point in his career. According to a lot of hf posters (see Crosby fan boys and pens fans) circa 2011 the lazy fatty would be washed out of the league by now.

It would be awesome to see. I don't think I've ever enjoyed the career of a non-Wing more than I've enjoyed Ovie's.. and to see the validation he's gotten from getting the playoff monkey off his back has been so satisfying.
 

SlickHands

Registered User
Apr 11, 2014
506
429
Cleveland, Ohio
Not sure why every Ovechkin thread goes the route of Crosby fans and pens fans hating on it? He’s a goal scorer. That’s what he does.

Crosby and Ovechkin are two completely different players. I prefer Crosby because he’s an all around player. Some people prefer Ovechkin because he can shoot a puck.

The argument will go on forever. But there’s no need to throw Crosby into a thread that’s about 50 goal scorers and nothing to do with him.

Death, taxes, and Crosby/Ovechkin being forever linked in HFBoards discussions.. all inevitable.. Just learn to live with it.
 

Syckle78

Registered User
Nov 5, 2011
14,585
7,824
Redford, MI
Not sure why every Ovechkin thread goes the route of Crosby fans and pens fans hating on it? He’s a goal scorer. That’s what he does.

Crosby and Ovechkin are two completely different players. I prefer Crosby because he’s an all around player. Some people prefer Ovechkin because he can shoot a puck.

The argument will go on forever. But there’s no need to throw Crosby into a thread that’s about 50 goal scorers and nothing to do with him.
If you were around back then you'd understand. It was a complete shit show on both sides. It's just funny how to look back on and take friendly jabs at some of the ridiculous things that were said.
 
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DrewGl

Registered User
Jul 28, 2018
1,483
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Alexandria, VA
I say he ends up with 55 or so. The team is out of wack right now but he seems to be picking it up at the same time. Will his team members stepping up (if they do) take away from his scoring? Will be interesting to watch.
 
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member 157595

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If you were around back then you'd understand. It was a complete **** show on both sides. It's just funny how to look back on and take friendly jabs at some of the ridiculous things that were said.

How does that not also describe this hellhole today? :laugh:
 
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Syckle78

Registered User
Nov 5, 2011
14,585
7,824
Redford, MI
How does that not also describe this hellhole today? :laugh:
Well take what it is now and imagine it ten times worse. Besides the Crosby and Ovie stuff you had the insane Vancouver fans planning parades and people trolling the sedins and lou to the point where nicknames for players were forbidden. Montreal and Boston and Vancouver in a weird three way hate triangle. Cooke taking runs at players seemingly every night. Also twitter and Reddit weren't as big so there was way more traffic.
 

TeslaCoilFan

Slightly Elite Fan
Mar 17, 2017
6,593
4,764
West of the Moon
Where’s Steven “Don’t look now but Stamkos is winning the Richard” Stamkos on this list?

Please remember that thread was started by a NON-Lightning fan.:P

Those of us who watch him every game know that, while he's finally back to shooting the damn puck again, he's way behind Ovi and the other goal leaders right now. We're just happy he's looking like his old pre-injuries self at the moment. :cool:
 
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deckercky

Registered User
Oct 27, 2010
9,379
2,452
i think the regression to the mean argument is due here

you're not gonna shoot at a 20%+ clip for long, i think that chart shakes up a lot by season's end

ovi is always the wildcard imo

The chart shows how much better those players are shooting compared to their averages.

It's important to note that because shots are, for all intents and purposes (ignoring confidence, etc..), independent events, there's no reason why the next shot should be any less likely than career average to score. Given that all those players have scored well above average for over half of the year, it would be surprising for any of them to end the year at their average shooting rates (because the past high percentage is locked in, while going forward you expect them to shoot average).
 

DFC

Registered User
Sep 26, 2013
46,844
22,691
NB
Please remember that thread was started by a NON-Lightning fan.:P

Those of us who watch him every game know that, while he's finally back to shooting the damn puck again, he's a ways behind Ovi and the other goal leaders right now. We're just happy he's looking like his old pre-injuries self at the moment. :cool:

I wouldn't bet any serious money against 50 though. As crazy as that might seem. He's 24 goals away with 33 games remaining. He has 20 goals in his last 33 games, but he's getting nothing but hotter, with 18 goals in his last 23.

Given TB's powerplay and him getting second line match-ups, he has a lot on his side. I think 45 is pretty reasonable, but if he stays hot, 50 is not implausible.

All that said, he won't catch Ovy. But that's more about the absolute ridiculous amount of goals Ovy's still capable of scoring.
 
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Demandedace

Registered User
Apr 9, 2015
1,399
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So took a quick look at Ovechkin's numbers in the last 31 games he played in every season so far, and the worst he did in any of those 31 games was 8 goals. That would give Ovechkin 45 goals this season.

In any other season he's played so far he's scored enough in his last 31 games so that it would make him hit 50 goals this season if he goes on a similar run.

So basically a 12/13 chance that Ovechkin will hit 50 if you base it on his history...
We do not speak of the 2010-2011 or 2011-2012 seasons!
 

kugelbahn

Registered User
Feb 15, 2018
328
418
Wish Ovie wasn't taking a game off. A 60 goal year would look ridiculous at this point in his career. According to a lot of hf posters (see Crosby fan boys and pens fans) circa 2011 the lazy fatty would be washed out of the league by now.
It might be addition by subtraction, sacrificing one game to rest/heal 33.5-yr-old body for 10 days after 50 games goes a long way...
 

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