5. Jamestown Jammers vs 4. Hartford Yard Goats

[Say Hey Kid]

Manager Tony La Russa - 3 World Series​

​

Lineup​

​

1. SS Ozzie Smith

2. 2B Joe Morgan​

​

3. LF Ted Williams​

​

4. CF Stan Musial​

​

5. 3B Eddie Mathews​

​

6. RF Al Kaline​

​

7. 1B John Olerud

8. C Carlton Fisk

9. Starters

Eddie Cicotte
Hippo Vaughn L
Don Newcombe
Dutch Leonard L​

​

Bench​

​

C Gary Carter

1B Adrian Gonzalez​

​

SS, 2B, 3B, OF Bert Campaneris​

​

Bullpen​

​

Closer John Wetteland​

​

Closer John Franco​

​

Middle Francisco Cordero

Middle Roberto Hernandez

VERSUS​

Manager: Bobby Cox (has just been ejected)

Catcher: Mike Piazza (R) / Joe Mauer (L)
First Base: Todd Helton (L)
Second Base: Jackie Robinson (R)
Third Base: Scott Rolen (R) / Edgar Martinez (R)
Shortstop: Alex Rodriguez (R) / Barry Larkin (R)

Left Field: Tim Raines (S) / Ralph Kiner (R)
Center Field: Mike Trout (R) / Kenny Lofton (L)
Right Field: Roberto Clemente (R) / Larry Walker (L)

Rotation
1. Roger Clemens (R)
2. Greg Maddux (R)
3. Sandy Koufax (L)
4. Kevin Brown (R)
5. Mickey Lolich (L)

Bullpen
Dennis Eckersley (R)
Hoyt Wilhelm (R)
Billy Wagner (L)
Aroldis Chapman (L)
Tom Henke (R)
Masaichi Kaneda (L)

Lineup:

Raines (S) 123 OPS+ / .385 OB% / 808 SB
Clemente (R) 130 OPS+ / .359 OB% / 240 HR
Rodriguez (R) 140 OPS+ / .380 OB% / 696 HR
Piazza(R) 142 OPS+ / .377 OB% / 427 HR
Helton (L) 133 OPS+ / .414 OB% / 369 HR
Trout (R) 174 OPS+ / .415 OB% / 231 HR / 186 SB
Robinson (R) 132 OPS+ / .409 OB% / 134 HR / 197 SB
Rolen (R) 122 OPS+ / .364 OB% / 316 HR ​

Click to read more...

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Ozzie and Morgan are running every time on base versus those 23% and 33% caught stealing rates. My top 6 hitters have an average OPS+ of 150.8 which is better than Albert Pujols.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Lolich will be moving to the pen and my rotation will go Clemens, Koufax, Maddux, Brown

I will be aggressive with my lefties in the pen, matching up against Wrigley's 2 thru 6 when needed and forcing Ozzie to his slightly weaker side. Eck and Whilhem (and Kaneda when needed) will all be allowed to go multiple innings with Eck and Wagner being the top options to shut the door in the 9th depending on matchups.

Lofton will be used almost exclusively as a late inning pinch runner; looking for that Dave Roberts spark. My right-handed heavy lineup will help neutralize the Jammer's lefty specialists. Edgar will be the preferred bat off the bench with RISP. Clemente in the 2 hole should be especially dangerous because I don't think you'll want to pitch around him and put him on in front of ARod and Piazza and Trout, so he'll be seeing a lot of stuff in the zone and he has more than enough power to make you pay.

Speaking of Clemente, with that lefty heavy lineup he'll get a lot of chances to show off the best RF arm of all-time to cut down Ozzie and Morgan at the plate if sac flies and 2nd to home are tried on him.

The Jammer's lineup is very formidable, but my top two of Clemens and Koufax, against a lefty heavy lineup, should give me a early edge (no worse that a 1-1 split) with Maddux being a fantastic option to either push the Jammers to the brink of a sweep or to pull ahead.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Blyleven and Perry will both do long relief with my rotation being Kluber, Santana, Ford, and Glavine. Wetteland and Franco will be the closers depending on matchups. Campaneris will be used as a late inning pinch runner (649 SBs) and defensive specialist (21 dWAR). Campy plays all positions except C & 1B. Olerud (129 OPS+) will be my pinch hitter with RISP. Ozzie Smith (580 SBs), Joe Morgan (689 SBs) and Campaneris (649 SBs) will be running every time on base on Piazza's 23% Caught Stealing rate and Mauer's 33% Caught Stealing rate.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Cater and Fisk's CS rates aren't exactly anything to write home about (35% and 33%), so Raines (808 SB, 84.7% success), Trout (186, 84.5%), Robinson (197, 76.3% with 3 seasons w/out CS numbers), ARod (329, 81.2%) , Larkin (379, 83.1%), and Lofton (622, 79.5%) won't be too afraid to run when needed.

ETA-

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Cater and Fisk's CS rates aren't exactly anything to write home about (35% and 33%), so Raines (808 SB, 84.7% success), Trout (186, 84.5%), Robinson (197, 76.3% with 3 seasons w/out CS numbers), ARod (329, 81.2%) , Larkin (379, 83.1%), and Lofton (622, 79.5%) won't be too afraid to run when needed. ...

Your main starting catcher Piazza's 23% Caught Stealing rate is horrible. He was a bad defensive catcher who got in the HoF on his 4th try despite his hitting. Raines is a great base stealer. Lofton is only being used as a pinch runner. Your other guys are not big (580+ SB) base stealers the way Ozzie (580 SBs), Morgan (689 SBs), and Campy (649 SBs) are. Ozzie and Morgan are leading off so they will get more at bats. Campy (21 dWAR) will be used as a pinch runner/defensive replacement for Kaline as soon as Kaline has his 4th at bat, so Campy will get significant playing time in every game. My Big 3 base stealers will be running every time on base.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I don't think the bulk SB numbers are a big factor once we get into a 7 game series. The bigger factor, IMO, is the SB Success %. Ozzie is under 80% and Morgan is around 81%, if I remember correctly.

In 4-7 games, again IMO, it's more important to have a smattering of guys that CAN run and can be successful swiping bags than 2 bulk stealers. 580 SB is indeed indicative of overall career speed, but you can't swipe 580 bags in a 7 game series. My guys may have lower SB totals, but they're not insignificant as they still average out to around 20+ swipes a season with high success rates. So it's not like a fluke season inflated their rates.

I also understand that Piazza is a weaker defensive catcher, however it's not like he's totally incapable of throwing anyone out. He's just not one of the prolific arms back there. It's been said that bases are stolen off the pitcher as much as the catcher, but there's no metrics reaching back far enough to back that up to really make that argument here and I don't feel like it's a big enough issue to really dig into it myself.

 

[Tecumseh]

Catcher

Advantage: Hartford

Yes, Piazza had a noodle arm behind the plate and that’s a problem. Nevertheless, his offensive problems were eye-popping and he edges out Carter although just barely.

First Base

Advantage: Hartford

Helton has the Coors Field factor working against him and that’s what will unfortunately keep him out of Cooperstown. Jim Thome was good for what he was: a great power hitter but he’s also injury prone and a defensive liability. Helton brings more balance and therefore gets the advantage.

Second Base

Advantage: None (Toss Up)

I could go on for hours deciding whether I’d want Joe Morgan or Jackie Robinson on my team. It’s a pointless exercise and impossible to decide.

Third Base

Advantage: Jamestown

Rolens is a criminally underappreciated ballplayer but not so much that he can hold a candle to Mathews.

Short Stop

Advantage: Hartford

Ozzie Smith’s defense is the stuff of legend but A-Rod’s natural ability is the stuff of greater legend.

Left Field

Advantage: Jamestown

Post-1947 Ted Williams is better than 99.8% of major league ballplayer past and present, including Tim Raines.

Center Field

Advantage: Jamestown

Give Trout another five more years of maintaining his production level and this could easily change. For now, it’s post-1947 Stan Musial.

Right Field

Advantage: Hartford

Clemente pretty much did everything Kaline could do on defense and was a much more efficient hitter. His arm alone could give him the advantage.

Bench

Advantage: None (Toss Up)

Both benches have their advantages. Campaneris could be inserted if the Jammers want to mercilessly victimize Piazza. The Yard Goats could replace Piazza with Mauer if this becomes too serious of a problem. The addition of Edgar Martinez is excellent for a bench bat in this format. His defense is too much of a question mark for him to be a starting player in this draft but as a reserve he is a great fit.

Starting Pitching

Advantage: Hartford

Clemens-Maddux-Koufax as Hartford’s top three is pretty much all that needs to be said.

Bullpen

Advantage: Hartford

Although Jamestown’s bullpen matches up much better against Hartford than their starting pitching does, the selections of Eckersely-Wilhelm-Wagner-Chapman means that a lead in the fifth inning would be considered safe if the bullpen was brought in to shut the door.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

"Carter -- 5-time Silver Slugger, 3-time Gold Glove, 11-time All-Star, 2-time All-Star MVP -- was one of the most popular players in the league. He led all catchers in total chances, put-outs, assists and double plays for much of the late 70's and early 80's. In 1978, Carter set the record for fewest passed balls. Carter helped lead the memorable 1986 Mets to a World Series victory. Carter finished his career with 324 home runs and was enshrined in the Hall of Fame in 2003." RANKED: Top 20 Catchers of All-Time

"The durable Hall of Famer held the major league record for games caught (2,226) before Pudge Rodriguez surpassed him. Fisk was an 11-time All-Star and 3-time Silver Slugger. Fisk has the sixth most RBI all-time by a catcher with 1,330, and is third in homers with 376. The original 'Pudge,' Fisk ranks fourth all-time in WAR -- trailing only Johnny Bench, Gary Carter and Ivan Rodriguez." RANKED: Top 20 Catchers of All-Time

Both my catchers (C Gary Carter - 115 OPS+, 26 dWAR, World Series, C Carlton Fisk - 117 OPS+, 17 dWAR) are much better all around players than Piazza.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WAR: Thome 72.9 to 61.2
HRs: Thome 612 to 369
RBIs: Thome 1699 to 1406
SLG: Thome .554 to .539
OPS+: Thome 147 to 133

Hall of Famer Thome is a much better hitter than Helton.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Clemente pretty much did everything Kaline could do on defense and was a much more efficient hitter. His arm alone could give him the advantage."

Clemente's BA is only .020 higher. Kaline has a career 134 OPS+ which is better than Helton's Coor's inflated stats. Kaline earned 10 Gold Gloves and had 1 of the top 7 outfield arms in MLB history. He's top 10 all time in RF putouts and he's top 20 all time in RF assists. He's considered the 2nd best Def. RFer ever. Clemente gets the slight edge.​

 

[Winger for Hire]

Thome and Helton are a lot closer offensively than you would think, if you don't cherry pick counting stats. Thome has the raw power advantage, but Helton is more rounded and harder to pitch to. For reference, Thome has just under 2 more seasons played than Helton (or 860 PA).

wOBA
Thome- .406
Helton- .405

Triple Slash
Thome- .276/.402/.554
Helton- .316/.414/539

ISO
Thome- .276
Helton- .223

BABIP
Thome- .322
Helton- .330

BB% & K%
Thome- 16.9% / 24.7%
Helton- 14.1% / 12.4%

wRC+ / OPS+
Thome- 145 / 147
Helton- 132 / 133

bWAR / fWAR
Thome- 72.9 / 68.9
Helton- 61.2 / 55.1

WAR7 (total of best 7 year of WAR)
Thome- 41.5
Helton- 46.5

Win Probability Added
Thome- 50.19
Helton- 48.06

 

[Winger for Hire]

And just to illustrate how razor close the 2B battle is here (and because I'm looking to put off starting my workday):

wRC+
Morgan- 135
Robinson- 135

Triple Slash
Morgan- .278/.392/.427
Robinson- .310/.409/.474

wOBA
Morgan- .372
Robinson- .406

BB% & K%
Morgan- 16.5% / 9.0%
Robinson- 12.8% / 5.0%

 

[Say Hey Kid]

"Thome and Helton are a lot closer offensively than you would think, if you don't cherry pick counting stats."

WAR: Thome 72.9 to 61.2
OPS+: Thome 147 to 133

Yeah, WAR and OPS+ are really cherry picking slugging stats. Thome's WAR is 11.7 higher! Thome's OPS+ is 14 higher! That's 1 less than the difference between Ted Williams' 190 OPS+ and Rogers Hornsby's 175 OPS+. That's the Grand Canyon. Helton (and Walker) will never get in the Hall of Fame, because of their Coors inflated hitting stats. You posted that I took both your picks when I picked Thome and Ozzie! Good luck in the voting.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'm not trying to downplay any of the players involved here, just providing some context and showing that Thome isn't, as you say, "much better than Helton". I feel you're placing a ton of importance on a single stat (OPS+), and far be it from me to tell you what to believe, but taking into account the entirety of each man's resume, I don't see a huge gap between the two.

Is Thome a better power hitter? You betcha.
Is Thome a better hitter? Judging by their triple slashes, wOBA while striking out 10% points more, not really.

Again, I'm not trying to downplay Thome at all. I love the man as a player and as I said, I was gearing up to pick him before you snatched him right before I could. I'm just pointing out that all the rate stats don't point to a gulf of offensive talent.

 

[Tecumseh]

"Carter -- 5-time Silver Slugger, 3-time Gold Glove, 11-time All-Star, 2-time All-Star MVP -- was one of the most popular players in the league. He led all catchers in total chances, put-outs, assists and double plays for much of the late 70's and early 80's. In 1978, Carter set the record for fewest passed balls. Carter helped lead the memorable 1986 Mets to a World Series victory. Carter finished his career with 324 home runs and was enshrined in the Hall of Fame in 2003." RANKED: Top 20 Catchers of All-Time

"The durable Hall of Famer held the major league record for games caught (2,226) before Pudge Rodriguez surpassed him. Fisk was an 11-time All-Star and 3-time Silver Slugger. Fisk has the sixth most RBI all-time by a catcher with 1,330, and is third in homers with 376. The original 'Pudge,' Fisk ranks fourth all-time in WAR -- trailing only Johnny Bench, Gary Carter and Ivan Rodriguez." RANKED: Top 20 Catchers of All-Time

Both my catchers (C Gary Carter - 115 OPS+, 26 dWAR, World Series, C Carlton Fisk - 117 OPS+, 17 dWAR) are much better all around players than Piazza.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WAR: Thome 72.9 to 61.2
HRs: Thome 612 to 369
RBIs: Thome 1699 to 1406
SLG: Thome .554 to .539
OPS+: Thome 147 to 133

Hall of Famer Thome is a much better hitter than Helton.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Clemente pretty much did everything Kaline could do on defense and was a much more efficient hitter. His arm alone could give him the advantage."

Clemente's BA is only .020 higher. Kaline has a career 134 OPS+ which is better than Helton's Coor's inflated stats. Kaline earned 10 Gold Gloves and had 1 of the top 7 outfield arms in MLB history. He's top 10 all time in RF putouts and he's top 20 all time in RF assists. He's considered the 2nd best Def. RFer ever. Clemente gets the slight edge.​

Piazza is what he is. The best hitting catcher of all time with a pedestrian arm behind the plate. I have doubts that Jamestown will be able to exploit his throwing arm very extensively. I doubt Ozzie’s ability to consistently get on base going up against that starting pitching and bullpen. Morgan is another matter but I don’t think that will be a difference maker in the series. Of course, Campaneris is an option off the bench but I don’t think he’ll be a factor unless he is a pinch runner.

As for Thome vs Helton, Winger encapsulated well what I was trying to get at. Thome has the edge in raw power but Helton is a better hitter. There are also durability concerns with Thome. The difference in WAR doesn’t mean much to me. Thome stuck around the league for much longer than Helton and therefore accumulated a higher WAR.

As for Kaline and Clemente, I acknowledged that Kaline was one of the best defensive outfielder but Clemente was the best. The strength of his arm put all others to shame. The .020 difference in BA might not seem like much but it is. Kaline was a damn great ball player but Clemente has him beat in every category however slight that may be.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

"Helton is a better hitter."

Helton: tOPS+ 80

.287

.386

.469

.855

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Thome: tOPS+ 94

.277

.398

.529

.927

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Pujols: tOPS+ 98

.299

.376

.554

.930

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Piazza: 1.5 dWAR and 23% Caught Stealing

Munson: 11.9 dWAR and 44% Caught Stealing

Carter: 26.1 dWAR and 35% Caught Stealing​

OPS+: Thome 147 to 133

Thome is a much better hitter. When you adjust for ballpark, Thome's OPS+ is a whopping 14 points higher! That's why we use OPS+! That's almost like saying Rogers Hornsby was a better hitter than Ted Williams. Helton's stats are padded by Coors (look at their splits) which is why he and Walker were never considered serious candidates for the Hall. Walker's highest HoF% in 8 tries is 34.1% and he was better than Helton. Thome got 89.8% on the first ballot. The HoF voters radically disagree with you.

Carter and Fisk are much better catchers than Piazza, who took 4 tries to get in the Hall with a 142 OPS+. He's a DH. Thome's defense matters, but Piazza's and Helton's -5.5 dWAR don't? ​

 

[Tecumseh]

Piazza being held out of the Hall of Fame has nothing to do with his playing ability and everything to do with baseless PED suspicions. Besides, Carter was on six ballots until he got the call from Cooperstown. Helton and Walker being dismissed by the BBWAA simply because of the “Coors factor” is an injustice. Helton’s career BA is .316, Thome’s is .276. Let’s assume that playing in Coors inflated his BA by .010, even taking that into account that is still a giant difference. Thome is the better power hitter. Helton is the better pure hitter.

If we’re going to use dWAR as the be all, end all defensive metric, Thome’s was -16.6. Among the starting first basemen in this draft, only Frank Thomas is worse. Sometimes poor defensive ability can be masked by historically great offensive talent. Piazza is one of those players. The same concept applies to Ted Williams who nobody holds against him the fact that he was trash in left field, even though he was helped by playing half of his games in Fenway, against him.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I fail to see what factor a players HoF ballet plays into this. Bonds and Clemens are both going on their 7th ballot, Duke Snider had to wait until his 11th, Marichal his 3rd, Killebrew 4th, Drydale 10th...

 

[Tecumseh]

Hell, even Joe DiMaggio had to wait until his third ballot. Arky Vaughan, the great Pirates shortstop and a top five shortstop of all time, was inducted by the Veterans committee and didn’t receive more than 10% of the vote until his 13th year on the ballot. HOF voters, by and large, are idiots.

 

[Vegeta]

I would probably take Carter in a scenario like this though. I feel as though the defensive deficiencies of Piazza will be exploited far more often given the skill level in this league. I'm not sure how often the Jammers can exploit Piazza, but anyone with a somewhat speedy lineup would be eating Piazza alive.

Also, I would rather have Thome over Helton.

 

[NJDevs26]

UPDATE: In what many expected to be the toughest series of the first round, Hartford prevails in 6 tight games

 

[Winger for Hire]

Holy crap, I finally made it out of the first round in one of these things!

It was a good matchup, Wrigley. That lineup had me worrying.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Congrats. The best team won.