4th Overall in Keeper League

[Bolt]

I am in a fairly come period league that due to COVID-19 have decided to spice it up this year feeling that we have a good group.

We starting a keeper league this year, 3 keepers of any position. Matchups will be point based with an emphasis on goals, pims, shots. There will be 12 teams so I’m looking at pick 4 then pick 21

Having 4th overall, I’ve ascertained that the draft order will be

1 = McDavid
2 = MacKinnon
3 = Eichel (the guy loves Buffalo)

This leaves me with the choice of several excellent players. Looking for any advice on what way to go considering age, output, goals, etc.

Leon Draisaitl (C/LW)
Auston Matthews (C)
Nikita Kucherov (RW)

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[Castle8130]

If it's goals, shots, and PIM as the main categories, look at Pastrnak. He's the second youngest of the four and a winger (if that matters in your format). He will have similar totals to Matthews as a winger and more shots and PIM. Him being a winger will give you plenty of value at that position. If you don't trust Pastrnak, I'd go Matthews or Draisaitl in a keeper league. Probably Draisaitl, nothing wrong with either though.

The problem with Pastrnak is that Bostons near future (3-4 years) is uncertain in terms of talent outside of Pasta.

 

[Bolt]

If it's goals, shots, and PIM as the main categories, look at Pastrnak. He's the second youngest of the four and a winger (if that matters in your format). He will have similar totals to Matthews as a winger and more shots and PIM. Him being a winger will give you plenty of value at that position. If you don't trust Pastrnak, I'd go Matthews or Draisaitl in a keeper league. Probably Draisaitl, nothing wrong with either though.

The problem with Pastrnak is that Bostons near future (3-4 years) is uncertain in terms of talent outside of Pasta.

I’ve always really liked Pasta, especially last year where I called him for a breakout season.

But you would consider him in the same tier as Draisaitl or Matthews?

 

[Castle8130]

I’ve always really liked Pasta, especially last year where I called him for a breakout season.

But you would consider him in the same tier as Draisaitl or Matthews?

I would consider them on the same tier in terms of fantasy value overall, yes.

The problem I have with Draisaitl specifically is that he has maintained around a 20% shooting to hit the 50 goal mark for the past two years. I think he is just a smarter player and plays with a very gifted playmaker, but his goal totals could easily drop to around the 35-43 mark. He will still maintain plenty of assists, but if your focused on goals, then that could hurt you.

Matthews and Pasta have averaged around a 16-17% shooting to hit near the 50 goal mark last year. I'd say they are near the same level in terms of talent (Matthews is better overall), but Pasta might lose the luxury of playing with these top end forwards quite soon (because of age). I always go with the winger over center in a format that has no flex options and specific positions, but this is a little bit different of a situation because Pasta might not have the best playmakers to play with in 3-4 years. I think for the next two seasons Pastrnak will have near the same amount of goals as Matthews per game, more PIM, and slightly less shots. Pastrnak will have more assists if that counts for anything, but other than that, that's all I can say.

 

[savaryche20]

If it's a limited keeper (like keep something like 12 or under), I would personally take Kucherov but I have a total win-now strategy in this type of format. If it's a deeper keeper, more similar to a dynasty, even though I wouldn't take him because I hate him with a passion, I think Matthews is the best bet here. He's 22 and an easy bet for around 50 goals and 300+ shots every year. Who cares about PIMs at this point. You can find PIMS in later rounds. Very hard to find elite goals and shot numbers after the first handful of rounds. Can't go wrong with Draisaitl either but expect fewer goals and shots but tons more assists (he'll get lots of goals too but he doesn't shoot as much as AM). As someone else alluded to, I wouldn't take Pasta at #4 simply because his teammates around him are aging. Drais and Matthews have young elite teammates for years to come (so does Kucherov). That could change, but I don't see anyone in Boston's pipeline or on their lesser lines who will end up being elite like McJesus, the young guns in Toronto, or Point. I think it's always best to bet on what's known at the moment.

 

[HansonBro]

I think Matthews is the safe pick. He still hasn't peaked yet

 

[Bolt]

If it's a limited keeper (like keep something like 12 or under), I would personally take Kucherov but I have a total win-now strategy in this type of format. If it's a deeper keeper, more similar to a dynasty, even though I wouldn't take him because I hate him with a passion, I think Matthews is the best bet here. He's 22 and an easy bet for around 50 goals and 300+ shots every year. Who cares about PIMs at this point. You can find PIMS in later rounds. Very hard to find elite goals and shot numbers after the first handful of rounds. Can't go wrong with Draisaitl either but expect fewer goals and shots but tons more assists (he'll get lots of goals too but he doesn't shoot as much as AM). As someone else alluded to, I wouldn't take Pasta at #4 simply because his teammates around him are aging. Drais and Matthews have young elite teammates for years to come (so does Kucherov). That could change, but I don't see anyone in Boston's pipeline or on their lesser lines who will end up being elite like McJesus, the young guns in Toronto, or Point. I think it's always best to bet on what's known at the moment.

I feel the same way about Pasta. Likely would draft him if I was in the 7-9 range just because I have doubts about his line mates. I think the talent is there but hard to put up 1st round Fantasy numbers without line mates.

Tough call on Kucherov since I have always been a massive TB fan. Since it is a keeper, I am a bit worried about age of only having elite production for 3 more years.

The difference between Goal and Assist in my league is 3 point for a goal and 1 point for an assist. Matthews is tantalizing for this reason but Leon just swept the major awards (with a high shooting percentage albeit)

 

[Bob Barker]

With those settings I'd go with Matthews.

 

[Rob Brown]

Damn, this would be a fun time to start a keeper league. We started ours in 2013 and the top picks were all Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stamkos etc.

I'd go with Matthews or Draisaitl.

 

[HansonBro]

Damn, this would be a fun time to start a keeper league. We started ours in 2013 and the top picks were all Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stamkos etc.

I'd go with Matthews or Draisaitl.

We just restarted our some 20 year old dynasty. Gretzky, Lemieux....

 

[Bolt]

Damn, this would be a fun time to start a keeper league. We started ours in 2013 and the top picks were all Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stamkos etc.

I'd go with Matthews or Draisaitl.

Currently leaning more towards Draisaitl. Even if his goal totals aren’t sustainable with a 20% shooting percentage, he shoulda still get 40 and double the assist that Matthews will get.

Now I have to hope Pettersson falls to me in second to get my dream draft