30% Americans selected in the draft

[Danny__K]

The advantage that America might have in terms of population is offset by the advantage that Canada has in terms of climate.

NHL.com has 858 skaters listed. 452 Canadians, 168 Americans.

IF you look at the NHLs top scorers. 8 of the top 10 were Canadian. The top Americans? Drury and Blake clocking in at a tie for 45th.

There is a LONG way to go before the US surpasses Canada as the premier hockey nation.

I think we're more likely to see a resurgence coming outta russia in the near future then the US coming close to Canada.

*note this is assuming accurate data on NHL.com*

 

[Alison]

Let's put this in perspective, the new NHL stars will still be Canadian. Crosby will be top forward and Staal (Marc) will end up being top defence man. The states can produce talent but never be the best.

 

[Zine]

If the game continues to grow at the 'grass roots' level in the US - it will undoubtedly surpass Canada......simply due to the sheer population difference.

I don't see it happening anytime soon; but the fact that the game is taking hold in non-traditional US hockey areas says something.
Some real good talent is starting to come out of places like California....and I wouldn't be surprised if you start seeing players born in Texas starting to make their mark in the future (thanks to the popularity of the Stars).


It's a bit like the US' rise in soccer (compared to how putrid they used to be). There are countries in this world that value soccer more than Canada does hockey but the US is already better than those countries due to the population difference.

 

[Alpine]

Just some raw numbers:
102 Canadians, 63 US, 45 Euros
Canadians picked last year 83. So that's a 15% (?) growth in Canada?
WHL players 37, OHL..35, QMJHL ..25, USHL ..21 ( could have added wrong?)
Only 9 Russians.
Growth of US/Canada hockey or lack of transfer agreement and the amount of money paid by the RSL?
OHH........and one from Nigeria. That's 100% growth.
EDIT:
Taken from Slam sports article

 

[Zine]

Just some raw numbers:
102 Canadians, 63 US, 45 Euros
Canadians picked last year 83. So that's a 15% (?) growth in Canada?
WHL players 37, OHL..35, QMJHL ..25, USHL ..21 ( could have added wrong?)
Only 9 Russians.
Growth of US/Canada hockey or lack of transfer agreement and the amount of money paid by the RSL?
OHH........and one from Nigeria. That's 100% growth.
EDIT:
Taken from Slam sports article

That's too small of a sample though.

Ideally you want to look at the changes over a 5, 10, 20 year span. When you do that you'll notice the US' huge rise in players drafted.

Will they leapfrog over Canada? Who knows.
However, if the US can maintain their growth rate they've accumulated over the past 20 years they certainly can.......but that's a big IF.

 

[meehan]

Let's put this in perspective, the new NHL stars will still be Canadian. Crosby will be top forward and Staal (Marc) will end up being top defence man. The states can produce talent but never be the best.

I figure both Johnson's to become better defensemen in the NHL than Staal.

 

[CrimsonBruin21]

If that happens.. and that's definatly an if..

I think it might be more popular.

The Russia - Canada international hockey rivalry is not what it used to be.

The Canada - U.S rivalry is one of the best to watch in the sport, both team's hate loosing against eachother, and both always have something to prove. US Hockey fans desperately want their team to beat Canada, and Team Canada fans despise seeing their team loose to the States.

That's an interesting angle. Perhaps, the U.S. could theoretically ascend to the "Super Power that also happens to be a Super Power in Ice Hockey" role that has been vacant since the fall of the USSR. Meanwhile, the Canadians could assume the "upstart underdog" role traditionally reserved for USA Hockey. Throw in the fact that the US (as a political matter) isn't going to win any popularity contests soon (although Canadians and Americans remain quite friendly with each other individually)... and you could theoretically see something like the US-USSR hockey "rivalry" (what did we win? 1 game?) restored only with the US being the big bad guy this time around.

A lot of things have to fall a certain way for this scenario to play out though...

 

[Legionnaire]

I figure both Johnson's to become better defensemen in the NHL than Staal.

Time will tell. Both Johnson's have work to do on their games. Staal is already what you see is what you get-which is quite good.


As to the original post, this would have been a much better topic had you not approached it in such a antagonistic manner.

Canada will always supply the majority of NHL talent. The game is much more popular, and their junior system is simply the best.

With that said, it's hard to ignore the steps the USNDP and the USHL have made in this regard. I was very proud, gushing almost when I saw the draft shake out the way it did.

Yet, as good as they've done(USNDP USHL) it's hard to ignore the fact that the new CBA has had a MAJOR effect on the draft. No longer can teams gamble on some guy from Sweden, who may or may not come over, and if not well, we've still got his rights till he's a UFA. No, you've got to be able to track the progress of each guy closely, and see whether or not he's worth offering a contract to. And the fact is, even though scouting throughout Western and Eastern Europe has expanded ten-fold in the last decade, it's still not the same as what's available in North America.

I'm not really even go into the transfer agreement, because that issue has been talked about ad-nausium

Again, it's hard to ignore the talent coming out of the States these days. The first real knock on Canada's door was when we won Gold, and it's only going to get closer in coming years.

 

[Alpine]

Time will tell. Both Johnson's have work to do on their games. Staal is already what you see is what you get-which is quite good.


As to the original post, this would have been a much better topic had you not approached it in such a antagonistic manner.

Canada will always supply the majority of NHL talent. The game is much more popular, and their junior system is simply the best.

With that said, it's hard to ignore the steps the USNDP and the USHL have made in this regard. I was very proud, gushing almost when I saw the draft shake out the way it did.

Yet, as good as they've done(USNDP USHL) it's hard to ignore the fact that the new CBA has had a MAJOR effect on the draft. No longer can teams gamble on some guy from Sweden, who may or may not come over, and if not well, we've still got his rights till he's a UFA. No, you've got to be able to track the progress of each guy closely, and see whether or not he's worth offering a contract to. And the fact is, even though scouting throughout Western and Eastern Europe has expanded ten-fold in the last decade, it's still not the same as what's available in North America.

I'm not really even go into the transfer agreement, because that issue has been talked about ad-nausium

Again, it's hard to ignore the talent coming out of the States these days. The first real knock on Canada's door was when we won Gold, and it's only going to get closer in coming years.

Some good points.........
Just wondering if the new CBA has any affect in the drafting of US/Canadian players (headed to NCAA) since they can be kept on a teams protected list for four years. Where as most others have to be signed in two years. Does a player who declares themselves as going to NCAA and then opts for CHL have to be signed in two or four years?
So can a team go fishing on a US player going NCAA and wait four years for him to develop before his deadline is up?

 

[John Belushi]

Although America's developmental programs are improving drastically, I'd venture a bet that next years draft will have less than 30%. This year was an anomaly, also due to the fact that many teams are wary of drafting Euro's now, due to the new 3yr window to sign them and a lack of a Russian transfer agreement.

 

[Legionnaire]

Some good points.........
Just wondering if the new CBA has any affect in the drafting of US/Canadian players (headed to NCAA) since they can be kept on a teams protected list for four years. Where as most others have to be signed in two years. Does a player who declares themselves as going to NCAA and then opts for CHL have to be signed in two or four years?

I certainly does. We saw that the first year with more college guys being taken.

They closed the Van Ryn loophole in the new CBA-meaning that if you are drafted and leave college, teams retain their rights for 4 years no matter

 

[Alpine]

I certainly does. We saw that the first year with more college guys being taken.

They closed the Van Ryn loophole in the new CBA-meaning that if you are drafted and leave college, teams retain their rights for 4 years no matter

So when we get to the latter rounds it would be better to draft an NCAA bound player and have him for four years to develop rather than drafting a player that has to be signed in two years?
EDIT:
I'll end my contribution to these thread by asking..........
So if I'm a kid from Resolute Inlet or Qu'hawg Bay or NY/NY if I'm playing Junior A or US High School and I've signed an NCAA Letter of Intent and get drafted. The NHL team that drafts me has four years to sign me? Even if I play CHL after I'm drafted?

 

[Legionnaire]

So when we get to the latter rounds it would be better to draft an NCAA bound player and have him for four years to develop rather than drafting a player that has to be signed in two years?

Not necessarily. I think teams feel more comfortable knowing that they have more time; thus the increase in numbers, but what it all comes down to IMO is being able to see these kids A LOT. And that's just easier to do for most teams having a lot of the guys that they hire being from NA.

Do teams like Detroit who have consistently drafted well out of Europe have more guys there? Certainly. And that's really what I think we're going to need to see in the future in order to see a demographic shift back from NA players. Either that, or we'll see more guys like Vorcek, Radulov etc-guys who clearly want to play in the NHL coming over. But of course with the limit on Euros that's still going to be hard.

 

[Alpine]

Not necessarily. I think teams feel more comfortable knowing that they have more time; thus the increase in numbers, but what it all comes down to IMO is being able to see these kids A LOT. And that's just easier to do for most teams having a lot of the guys that they hire being from NA.

Do teams like Detroit who have consistently drafted well out of Europe have more guys there? Certainly. And that's really what I think we're going to need to see in the future in order to see a demographic shift back from NA players. Either that, or we'll see more guys like Vorcek, Radulov etc-guys who clearly want to play in the NHL coming over. But of course with the limit on Euros that's still going to be hard.

I lied I'll make another post.
So, if I'm an NHL GM, the right thing for me to do is load up on NCAA bound players in the 6th and 7th rounds since I'll have them for four years. Then hope that the CHL players I wanted will accept an FA tryout when their junior career is over. Hence the numbers in the draft do not reflect anything except the new CBA? Or the Euro transfer agreement?

 

[meehan]

Time will tell. Both Johnson's have work to do on their games. Staal is already what you see is what you get-which is quite good.

Quite good, yes. But the best defensemen in the league (ie someone the calibur of a Chris Pronger)? I think both Johnson's have more upside and would come closer to the best defensemen in the league level.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I lied I'll make another post.
So, if I'm an NHL GM, the right thing for me to do is load up on NCAA bound players in the 6th and 7th rounds since I'll have them for four years. Then hope that the CHL players I wanted will accept an FA tryout when their junior career is over. Hence the numbers in the draft do not reflect anything except the new CBA? Or the Euro transfer agreement?

I think this is closer to the truth. There is no doubt that Americans (or US born players if you want) are getting better. And the numbers of people playing hockey in the States is rising, I'd imagine. Still, I'm pretty sure that it is nowhere near the popularity of basketball and football, and probably even baseball. Then don't forget racecar driving, bowling and golf. Hockey is a minor player in the US sports scene, but the coaching and development of the USNDP and the NCAA are quite good.

All of which is to say that even though US is producing better players, I'm not sure the draft alone can be used to prove that. There are certainly still many good players in Europe, but the CBA no longer advantages teams to draft Euros, especially not ones from Russia. Players from the CHL are also risky because of the two years one has the rights for them. Late round picks from the NCAA makes sense because most of the players available (presumably) are less NHL ready and the four years of rights retention gives teams more time to decide on the players.

An added consequence of this CBA is that I predict more CHL and Euro free agents being signed, and less from the NCAA (as used to be plentiful) as this prospect pool will be more fully tapped.

 

[RaiderDoug]

The hockey snobs might not want to hear this, but I think we can create a link from the fact that we had an unprecedented number of Americans drafted to the fact that the NHL, in the past 15 years or so, has made a concerted effort to "grow the game" in non-traditional areas.

I know, I know, Ive heard it all before. Expansion is a dismal failure, hockey doesnt belong in Nashville, Miami, Atlanta, etc, etc, etc. From reading the Toronto Sun, Nashville has no fans. Not a single one. Blah, blah, blah.

Yet, you cannot deny the fact that as a direct result of the horrible decision to try and grow the game to non-traditional areas, there are hundreds of thousands of real, live, new hockey fans on the continent. There are thousands and thousands of kids playing hockey who would never have seen a hockey puck 15 years ago.

You can debate whether or not hockey has or will become more or less popular relative to other sports in certain areas of the country, but I dont think you can say that hockey isnt more popular in the U.S. than it was a decade ago, and its only getting better.

 

[thomasincanada]

10 years ago the Americans could field a team that could compete (and beat once or twice) our best team. Right now they couldn't even compete in a best on best scenario (not trying to start a war, it's just the facts). In 5 years the US will be able to field a team that can once again compete with our best.

Isn't this just a case, just like every other country, of them having some good stretches of talent producing.. and some bad stretches? To me it's a huge stretch to say it's inevitable they will pass Canada. Is it possible? Certainly. Inevitable is a huge stretch everything considered though.

 

[Blues077]

will the NHL still be popular in canada when the U.S. takes over as major supplier of NHL talent?You know that it is inevitable.

50% of the picks were Canadian. Canadians live, eat and breath NHL hockey. In United States you can hardly get a few paragraphs in the paper about it. Just because we are producing more players each doesn't mean we will produce the most each year. TV excecs are biased against hockey in the U.S., so eventually producing players will slow down. Lack of tv coverage will hurt when it comes to parents getting kids into hockey. People in U.S. don't realize just what an awesome sport it is. All Espn does is promote basketball 24hrs a day. That is not good for producing more fans. More fans means more kids playing. More kids playing means more kids to NHL. It will slow down..........

 

[Blues077]

The Americans are producing some really good defenseman, but where are the star forwards? Where are the guys that can challenge for the Art Ross trophy? If we can't do that, then hockey growth will slow. We need some star forwards. An American Sidney Crosby would do wonders for hockey growth and player production in the U.S. But catching up to Canadian player production is unlikely still for a long time.

 

[AirBriere48]

The Americans are producing some really good defenseman, but where are the star forwards? Where are the guys that can challenge for the Art Ross trophy? If we can't do that, then hockey growth will slow. We need some star forwards. An American Sidney Crosby would do wonders for hockey growth and player production in the U.S. But catching up to Canadian player production is unlikely still for a long time.

kane, kessel, okposo, van rimsdyk... to name a few

 

[Blues077]

kane, kessel, okposo, van rimsdyk... to name a few

And they are competing for the Art Ross trophy? Potential only. Results, not yet. We will see. They are not and will not be a Crosby type players. Good/Great maybe. Whereas Jack Johnson and Erik Johnson have the potential to one day maybe win the Norris. The U.S. forwards are not close to Crosby(Art Ross) potential.

 

[Blues077]

kane, kessel, okposo, van rimsdyk... to name a few

Don't get me wrong, I am in no way bashing the U.S. players. I love the fact that we are now starting to produce more players with potential. Just being "real" in the fact that our young forwards potential is not up to what Canada produces in terms of "elite star" player. One that will dominate like Crosby. Maybe some day?

 

[Bixby Snyder]

It will happen whether Canadians want to admit it or not. The US already has more players and rinks than the top 5 European countries combined and are only slightly behind Canada. Talent level and number player picked in the draft continue increase. The only thing missing is an elite Crosby type player and I wouldn't be surprised to see that within the next decade.

 

[ForsbergForever]

Hockey talent in the United States is basically comes from Michigan, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Conneticut, New York and Wisconsin, the combined population of these states is approx. 50 million. So you have Canada at around 30 million competing against a population almost twice as great, but that still manages to hold a significant edge in both quantity and quality of hockey talent produced. The real threat to Canadian dominance is if other US states become real hotbeds of hockey and dramatically increase their output f skiled players. Right now, as stated, the US as a whole is only using a fraction of its potential as a hockey nation, when and if hockey spreads in popularity, even to states already attatched to hockey on a fan level but not so much in participation, like Pennsylvania and Illinois, thats another 20 million people, almost another Canada, size wise, Whereas Canada is already operating at maximum potential and as no other regions left untapped for players.