3 Young Superstars Due for a Regression Next Year

[The Macho King]

Also let's realize that shooting percentage is kind of a shit stat since it doesnt factor in misses.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I think being a ppg+ guy is in Drai's future even if he doesn't approach 100 points again. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. Shooting percentage was high but who knows what happens as McDavid continues to get better.

 

[Peiskos]

Is Jeff Skinner considered a young superstar? I mean sure he’s no spring chicken but 26 isn’t exactly old in this league, he was fantastic 40 goal season for the Sabres.

I think he’ll regress next season, thats a hard team to predict in the coming years.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I think Marner will definitely regress if regress means anything less than 94 points. Hard to place a bet that he'll have 94 points or more next season.

No one besides the generational players like Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid etc are good for 90+ points in any given year in their prime. Scoring tends to go up and then swiftly back down again.

I mean, I watched a few Leaves games, and IMHO Marner is the best player you guys have.

I think he's going to be the leading scorer for your team for the next decade and he's likely going to ask for the salary that goes with that.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

But I read something the other day that claimed Drai was/is/will be a better goal scorer than Ovi going forward!?!

Something about empty net goals and Ovi getting old??

All that craziness aside, yes, those players will not repeat their goal totals next year. It’s not that they aren’t great players, they are, it’s just they’re not that great of player.

If you get my drift.

Oiler fans should recall a certain player named Eberle and his crazy high shooting percentage that one year....that one year.

Please post the link if you're going to make stuff up.

 

[nuxnuxnux]

You're likely looking at a 55-60 point player going forward in Elias Pettersson.

Brayden Point has more of a chance at repeating his PPG but probably not likely.

I’d bet a lot of money against that if your game re:ep

 

[Mikeaveli]

Point actually scored 3 less goals at even strength this season compared to last year lol. 15 more on the PP

 

[bondra]

I said already in january that EP will regress to below 1 P/GP and I predict this will continue also next season. EP is great player, but the problem is that the hype was just too much in the first half of the season and people in hfboards went into it. Will probably hit 80 points in the future with good linemates.

After his excepted regressing people started to talk his tired. He had 18:14 TOI/GP this season and we are talking about 20 yo professional icehockey player, so in my opinion he should be able to play those minutes. And I know he had long playoffs in SHL, but in that case I hope canucks will never get to the playoffs, because obviously that will wear EP too much?

 

[BertMcDrai]

He also predicted a big regression for Matthews this year that didn't happen. I think he just likes to predict it

That´s true, but it´s not like he has improved this year...He seems to be stagnating...maybe we have already seen the best he can in his young age, not likely but possible.

 

[NoMessi]

I said already in january that EP will regress to below 1 P/GP and I predict this will continue also next season. EP is great player, but the problem is that the hype was just too much in the first half of the season and people in hfboards went into it. Will probably hit 80 points in the future with good linemates.

After his excepted regressing people started to talk his tired. He had 18:14 TOI/GP this season and we are talking about 20 yo professional icehockey player, so in my opinion he should be able to play those minutes. And I know he had long playoffs in SHL, but in that case I hope canucks will never get to the playoffs, because obviously that will wear EP too much?

You do realize that in Sweden they dont fly through 3 time zones for away games? They play 55 or so regular season games in the same amount of time that NHL plays 82. Its also faster in the NHL, and a lot tougher too.

I usually try not to hype young players from my native country (HEY LOOKING AT YOU FINS!), but I would be chocked if Pettersson dont become one of the best players in this generation.

 

[Pizza the Hutt]

Talk about over-reaction. Draisaitl will be fine, he'll carve out a career as a solid 30/30 role player.

 

[bondra]

You do realize that in Sweden they dont fly through 3 time zones for away games? They play 55 or so regular season games in the same amount of time that NHL plays 82. Its also faster in the NHL, and a lot tougher too.

I usually try not to hype young players from my native country (HEY LOOKING AT YOU FINS!), but I would be chocked if Pettersson dont become one of the best players in this generation.

Did you just say that EP is generational player? Here starts the Gretzky and McDavid bs again .

Canucks were lucky to get generational player with 5th pick.

 

[TBF1972]

Did you just say that EP is generational player? Here starts the Gretzky and McDavid bs again .

Canucks were lucky to get generational player with 5th pick.

It's amazing how fans look at stats. Always the worst stretch of data is considered the statistical outlier.

 

[Seanaconda]

But I read something the other day that claimed Drai was/is/will be a better goal scorer than Ovi going forward!?!

Something about empty net goals and Ovi getting old??

All that craziness aside, yes, those players will not repeat their goal totals next year. It’s not that they aren’t great players, they are, it’s just they’re not that great of player.

If you get my drift.

Oiler fans should recall a certain player named Eberle and his crazy high shooting percentage that one year....that one year.

If drai was a right shot I'd totally expect his goals to go up but he's a left shot right winger / center that prefers play making on a team full of left shots I agree his goals will prob go down . Eberle has a decent wrist shot he just can't one time a puck

 

[Artorius Horus T]

yea, and tell me his shot % right now lmao

I don't think anyone should read into Laine's this season much.
- there was so much off the ice negative **** going on

 

[lomiller1]

Over the last 3 years here are the 5v5 and 5v4 sh% of the various players discussed and where they look "off" to me. Highlighted in blue for low, red for high. - Remember sh% is typically a few points higher 5v4


Last 3 years sh% at 5v5
Draisaitl 12.6, 9.9, 20.0
Point 13.3, 13.8, 14.6
Pettersson *, *, 15.2
Laine 16.1, 14.5, 9.7
Matthews 13.8, 18.4, 13.2



Last 3 years sh% at 5v4
Draisaitl 21.3, 15.0, 23.4
Point 16.3, 6.5, 34.1
Pettersson *, *, 25.0
Laine 16.6, 18.8, 14.3
Matthews 16.7, 14.8, 22.7


Some observations:

• Pettersson only had 36 5v4 shots, his sh% can drop significantly and if he takes 60-70 shots his goal totals would still go up

• Draisaitl has had really high 5v4 sh% twice in the last 3 years, so it could be system related but I still don’t think so.

• Laine never had any really high sh%, rather his all situations sh% seems like it’s being skewed upwards because it’s weighted heavily towards PP where sh% are higher. He also uses the 1-timer a lot and it’s the highest % shot type.

• Point’s 5v4 sh% was ridiculous.

 

[Hagged]

yea, and tell me his shot % right now lmao

12% this season. But the regression wasn't "next year" after his rookie season, which was the point made and is in the thread title.

His Sh% was due for progression the next year after his rookie season.

LMAO

 

[Christ]

I think Marner will definitely regress if regress means anything less than 94 points. Hard to place a bet that he'll have 94 points or more next season.

No one besides the generational players like Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid etc are good for 90+ points in any given year in their prime. Scoring tends to go up and then swiftly back down again.

From what I have seen of Marner he just seems to keep getting better. Combine this with the fact that he will always be playing with other high end scorers in Tavares and Matthews (on the PP) and I just don't see his point totals dropping much barring injury of course. While he may not crack 90 points EVERY year I don't we will see him regress much if at all. I would not be shocked to see him crack 100 points in the coming years.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Over the last 3 years here are the 5v5 and 5v4 sh% of the various players discussed and where they look "off" to me. Highlighted in blue for low, red for high. - Remember sh% is typically a few points higher 5v4


Last 3 years sh% at 5v5
Draisaitl 12.6, 9.9, 20.0
Point 13.3, 13.8, 14.6
Pettersson *, *, 15.2
Laine 16.1, 14.5, 9.7
Matthews 13.8, 18.4, 13.2



Last 3 years sh% at 5v4
Draisaitl 21.3, 15.0, 23.4
Point 16.3, 6.5, 34.1
Pettersson *, *, 25.0
Laine 16.6, 18.8, 14.3
Matthews 16.7, 14.8, 22.7


Some observations:

• Pettersson only had 36 5v4 shots, his sh% can drop significantly and if he takes 60-70 shots his goal totals would still go up

• Draisaitl has had really high 5v4 sh% twice in the last 3 years, so it could be system related but I still don’t think so.

• Laine never had any really high sh%, rather his all situations sh% seems like it’s being skewed upwards because it’s weighted heavily towards PP where sh% are higher. He also uses the 1-timer a lot and it’s the highest % shot type.

• Point’s 5v4 sh% was ridiculous.

Good work, just wondering why the bolded are both red. And I dont see his coming down alot, considering most of his powerplay goals are one timers. His 5v5 i expect dropping to around 10-12% though, and his powerplay staying in the high teens.

 

[lomiller1]

From what I have seen of Marner he just seems to keep getting better. Combine this with the fact that he will always be playing with other high end scorers in Tavares and Matthews (on the PP) and I just don't see his point totals dropping much barring injury of course. While he may not crack 90 points EVERY year I don't we will see him regress much if at all. I would not be shocked to see him crack 100 points in the coming years.

Marner’s 5v5 on ice sh% was 11.4, it’s a pretty safe bet that will regress, which should reduce his assist totals. The caveat is that he had very few second assists, and those tend to be somewhat random as well. I can easily see his first assists dropping due to reduced oish%, his second assists going up with his overall point totals remaining about the same. Overall his numbers are less likely to regress then Matthews IMO.
Side note

There is an old stock market adage that says "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". IOW just because a player is poised to regress doesn’t mean it will be reflected ion their numbers next year. A player who had an abnormally high sh% or oish% can follow that up with below normal, normal or above normal % the following season and if you look at a bunch of players you will end up seeing examples of all 3. If you look at this thread a year from now and player X still has a high sh% it does not mean that it was skill all along and the player will never regress.

 

[lomiller1]

Good work, just wondering why the bolded are both red. And I dont see his coming down alot, considering most of his powerplay goals are one timers. His 5v5 i expect dropping to around 10-12% though, and his powerplay staying in the high teens.

The numbers are too high, even for the powerplay, and 3 years of data just isn’t enough to change our understanding of what "normal" is for a given player. If we look back 5 years from now and see he’s done it two or three more times then that changes things, but for now it’s more likely he had 2 of his best sh% years close together.

 

[The Macho King]

Over the last 3 years here are the 5v5 and 5v4 sh% of the various players discussed and where they look "off" to me. Highlighted in blue for low, red for high. - Remember sh% is typically a few points higher 5v4


Last 3 years sh% at 5v5
Draisaitl 12.6, 9.9, 20.0
Point 13.3, 13.8, 14.6
Pettersson *, *, 15.2
Laine 16.1, 14.5, 9.7
Matthews 13.8, 18.4, 13.2



Last 3 years sh% at 5v4
Draisaitl 21.3, 15.0, 23.4
Point 16.3, 6.5, 34.1
Pettersson *, *, 25.0
Laine 16.6, 18.8, 14.3
Matthews 16.7, 14.8, 22.7


Some observations:

• Pettersson only had 36 5v4 shots, his sh% can drop significantly and if he takes 60-70 shots his goal totals would still go up

• Draisaitl has had really high 5v4 sh% twice in the last 3 years, so it could be system related but I still don’t think so.

• Laine never had any really high sh%, rather his all situations sh% seems like it’s being skewed upwards because it’s weighted heavily towards PP where sh% are higher. He also uses the 1-timer a lot and it’s the highest % shot type.

• Point’s 5v4 sh% was ridiculous.

A lot of that was how our PP is structured this season. He is in the bumper spot so pretty much only takes one-timers from less than ten feet out (and considering who is on the wings, there is a huge element of "pick your poison" in who to tightly check). It'll go down, but his shot % on the PP is always going to be high.

Last season he was more in Kucherov's spot on the second PP, so he took more low percentage shots - he's not a guy that can just beat a goalie from distance like Kucherov and Stamkos are. Putting him in the bumper really maximizes his skillset.

 

[Danythegod]

Draisaitl will fall bakc to 30 goals 70 point. Nothing wrong with that, but expectations should be set at that

If they play Drai as their second line center like any competent team should/would do. He will definitely go back down to those numbers. I had Drai in Fantasy and traded him assuming he'd play second line and not with Mcdavid but the Oilers are terrible and need to put them together for anything to happen.

I say if he gets away from Mcdavid, he can be the Stamkos to his Kucherov as they can reunite on the PP but play on separate lines. I personally think they should do this but i'm just an armchair gm with a bunch of hockey knowledge.

 

[NoMessi]

Did you just say that EP is generational player? Here starts the Gretzky and McDavid bs again .

Canucks were lucky to get generational player with 5th pick.

No, you said generational. I said "one of the best players in this generation" is where I think he will end up, which is far from the same thing.

 

[Seanaconda]

Is Jeff Skinner considered a young superstar? I mean sure he’s no spring chicken but 26 isn’t exactly old in this league, he was fantastic 40 goal season for the Sabres.

I think he’ll regress next season, thats a hard team to predict in the coming years.

Has played for eight years but his second half was super slow so I think we already saw him regress / slump with eichel