3 reasons I'm confident there will be a meeting of the minds within 2 weeks...

[TonySCV]

1. It's the holidays.
2. I'm a betting man
3. The players aren't stupid, and they know when they're fighting a losing battle.

It's a fact that the holidays do bring out the sympathetic side of people. Just look at all the criminals who beg to have their cases heard by a jury around the holidays. Not coincidentally, December is also the month that a deal has to get done in for hockey to survive this season.

Yes, it's a gamble to have an optimistic view, but I also think it's a realistic view. Owners have had it, that point is clear. What's also clear is that the players have NOTHING to gain by holding out. They'll lose salary, they'll lose out contractually (the available pool of $$ gets smaller as time goes on, not larger), and conceding early allows them the leverage to negotiate some of the other CBA items in their favor.

Electing Arturs Irbe to the NHLPA Executive Committee notwithstanding, players aren't stupid. Most of these guys have enough business sense to realize that it's time to move on. The players fought the fight, although not a good fight, mind you.

While the NHL owners are buffoons for allowing this mess to happen in the first place and not addressing it back in 1994, the players get equal flak for thinking negotiating tactics from 1994 would work in 2004. Otherwise they wouldn't have allowed the NHL to turn the players on each other by pointing out that perhaps it wasn't the smartest idea to do an across the board 24% pay cut as opposed to the weighted approach that the NHL proposed.

We all know the bottom line is all about the almighty dollar, which is why I'm certain the players are not going to allow this season to drift away - it's financial suicide if they do.

Like all major sports, this one is also run primarily by money and greed, so for those of you holding out for a season to be saved, there is plenty of hope left indeed.

If the players get a deal done within 2 weeks there will still be time for them to visit their local Lexus dealer to take advantage of the December to Remember sales event. The sale will end on January 3rd, 2005. Coincidence? I think not.

- T

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[struckmatch]

I'm predicting the PA will concede a salary cap to save this season.

 

[me2]

If the players get a deal done within 2 weeks there will still be time for them to visit their local Lexus dealer to take advantage of the December to Remember sales event. The sale will end on January 3rd, 2005. Coincidence? I think not.

- T

:lol :lol :lol

 

[Hockey_Nut99]

The players know this isn't 1994. They know the owners will not cave this time at all. It's up to them. It might be unfair but that's how Bettman and the boys are running this one. Either play now and save the season or negotiate for next year and fight for a smaller piece of revenues.

 

[John Flyers Fan]

One thing to remember, the 2nd half of the season is more important to the owners than the players.

 

[Russian Fan]

One thing to remember, the 2nd half of the season is more important to the owners than the players.

You got it right John. 2nd half is more important to the players because that's WHERE THE MONEY is for the OWNERS !!! + no player to pay in the playoff.

1 year without hockey will hurt every franchise value a lot more than what the players already know that the payday will be a lot less already with the next CBA luxury or salary cap.

So if you are the player , you know you already concede 24% of your salary if you wait 1-2-3 years but for an owner , a franchise value could drop as much a 50 to 75% if there's no hockey. Where talking about 30 to 60 MILLIONS dollars in value.

 

[djhn579]

You got it right John. 2nd half is more important to the players because that's WHERE THE MONEY is for the OWNERS !!! + no player to pay in the playoff.

1 year without hockey will hurt every franchise value a lot more than what the players already know that the payday will be a lot less already with the next CBA luxury or salary cap.

So if you are the player , you know you already concede 24% of your salary if you wait 1-2-3 years but for an owner , a franchise value could drop as much a 50 to 75% if there's no hockey. Where talking about 30 to 60 MILLIONS dollars in value.

But if you get the right CBA, even after 2 years of no hockey, franchise value can increase considerably from current levels within 5 years of hockey starting back up. Plus, the owners also know they will have a better return on their investment if they stay the course and get the CBA they want.

 

[Russian Fan]

But if you get the right CBA, even after 2 years of no hockey, franchise value can increase considerably from current levels within 5 years of hockey starting back up. Plus, the owners also know they will have a better return on their investment if they stay the course and get the CBA they want.

Well it's easier to say than having it. The MLB '94 lockout/strike took 10 years to regain the fan base & we're talking about arguably the 1st or 2nd america's favorite sports.

When a sport like Hockey is less attracting then monster-truck & snowboarding & the TLC channel, I think your thoughts are more about hope than reality.

 

[GirardIsStupid]

I'm predicting the PA will concede a salary cap to save this season.

in that case, i expect goodenow to be fired
and jose theodore to retire

 

[djhn579]

Well it's easier to say than having it. The MLB '94 lockout/strike took 10 years to regain the fan base & we're talking about arguably the 1st or 2nd america's favorite sports.

When a sport like Hockey is less attracting then monster-truck & snowboarding & the TLC channel, I think your thoughts are more about hope than reality.

Your probably right, and the fact that the majority of fans are supporting the owners in this dispute has little bearing. Attendance has to drop at least 50% because all that's what happened in another sport.

 

[GKJ]

But if you get the right CBA, even after 2 years of no hockey, franchise value can increase considerably from current levels within 5 years of hockey starting back up. Plus, the owners also know they will have a better return on their investment if they stay the course and get the CBA they want.

People don't understand how much money the owners will lose if there is no playoffs. The players don't get paid for the playoffs. The revenue for the owners will be insane if we play a 41 game season + playoffs. All the people who say the owners should wait a year or two to get what they want don't understand the longer this lockout goes the less money everyone will get.

 

[Lanny MacDonald*]

And the players are leaving $1.5 billion the table right now. What the owners make during the playoffs is a fraction of that money. The players are the big losers the longer this goes. This is money they will never see again. For a lot of them, that's the money they need so they don't have to work once their careers are over and be exposed to the harsh realities of the real world.

 

[Russian Fan]

Your probably right, and the fact that the majority of fans are supporting the owners in this dispute has little bearing. Attendance has to drop at least 50% because all that's what happened in another sport.

I don't doubt that the majority of fans support the owners but it doesn'T change the fact that not because the STRONG CORE of fans will stick & watch the NHL as long as they die , it's still a small core.

It's not Americas favorite sport were the group of strong core baseball or football fans can still help the league to get up of a lockout or strike. In hockey there was a large group of people who start to like hockey but wasn't addicted enough so that they will wait 1-2-3 years to rediscover hockey. This will hurt the sport & the franchise mostly. As for the players, it can't hurt more than what they already know. Losing 24 to 35% of the salary or in 2 years is the same thing for them.

Also don't forget the fact that Owners seems all together because they CAN'T SPEAK !!! & except of a dozen of borderline NHLer out of 750 is not a dissension of the troup.

 

[GKJ]

And the players are leaving $1.5 billion the table right now. What the owners make during the playoffs is a fraction of that money. The players are the big losers the longer this goes. This is money they will never see again. For a lot of them, that's the money they need so they don't have to work once their careers are over and be exposed to the harsh realities of the real world.

No this is money the owners will never see again, espically if we lose a playoff year because the players don't get paid. You can't have a league without players, the players will get paid enough they know it, and they also know that there are a lot of players who make way too much, there are just more who know they get paid enough and those guys will always get paid enough.

 

[Russian Fan]

And the players are leaving $1.5 billion the table right now. What the owners make during the playoffs is a fraction of that money. The players are the big losers the longer this goes. This is money they will never see again. For a lot of them, that's the money they need so they don't have to work once their careers are over and be exposed to the harsh realities of the real world.

Let's say most franchise is worth an average 100 millions x 30 teams = 3 billions.

Losing half the value of the team means also 1,5 billions for the owners too. Except that 1,5 billions divide by 30 & 1,5 billions divide by 750 players.

do the math.

 

[Lanny MacDonald*]

No this is money the owners will never see again, espically if we lose a playoff year because the players don't get paid. You can't have a league without players, the players will get paid enough they know it, and they also know that there are a lot of players who make way too much, there are just more who know they get paid enough and those guys will always get paid enough.

What are you trying to say? It sounds like you're saying that they know who knows who knows what but who knows what who knows if who knows who really doesn't know what who knows especially if what who knows what was not what who knows was what who knows all along.

 

[fan mao rong]

Let's say most franchise is worth an average 100 millions x 30 teams = 3 billions.

Losing half the value of the team means also 1,5 billions for the owners too. Except that 1,5 billions divide by 30 & 1,5 billions divide by 750 players.

do the math.

All this crap about franchise values. It only matters at time of sale. And who would look to buy a big money loser such as one of these teams? If ownership had any intention of folding up for a few dollars, they could have easily done so after the offer of a 24% across the board pay cut by the NHLPA. The reason franchise values will increase under a salary cap is that teams can be turned from highly unprofitable to slightly profitable. And if they continue under the same old system the franchises will have very little value because , basically no one will want to buy a big money loser in a struggling sport.

 

[Pepper]

You got it right John. 2nd half is more important to the players because that's WHERE THE MONEY is for the OWNERS !!! + no player to pay in the playoff.

1 year without hockey will hurt every franchise value a lot more than what the players already know that the payday will be a lot less already with the next CBA luxury or salary cap.

So if you are the player , you know you already concede 24% of your salary if you wait 1-2-3 years but for an owner , a franchise value could drop as much a 50 to 75% if there's no hockey. Where talking about 30 to 60 MILLIONS dollars in value.

A good CBA for the teams will incresease the value of the franchises tenfold compared to the hit they might because of cancelled season. That's why owners
have nothing to lose really. Whatever they lose in short-term, they will make up in the long term.

.And that's the reason why owners will win this one.

 

[TonySCV]

Well it's easier to say than having it. The MLB '94 lockout/strike took 10 years to regain the fan base & we're talking about arguably the 1st or 2nd america's favorite sports.

Well, fortunately for the NHL the level of fan hatred isn't anywhere near the level it was for MLB and the players/owners in '94. Yes there will be a hit, but not much of one. Certainly not in Canada, where hockey is such a mainstay and the fan base there really isn't calling for a protest. I seriously doubt it will be a factor in the US either since fans are so apathetic about the NHL lockout as it is.

- T

 

[i am dave]

Well, fortunately for the NHL the level of fan hatred isn't anywhere near the level it was for MLB and the players/owners in '94. Yes there will be a hit, but not much of one. Certainly not in Canada, where hockey is such a mainstay and the fan base there really isn't calling for a protest. I seriously doubt it will be a factor in the US either since fans are so apathetic about the NHL lockout as it is.

- T

I agree. There is certainly a train of thought that says that if no one cares about the NHL lockout, then no one will be "pissed off" like MLB fans were, and therefore, will come back in approximately the same numbers.

The NBA is very well cared about in the US (though not by me), and there was no long recovery time after their lockout. Who knows?

 

[I in the Eye]

I don't doubt that the majority of fans support the owners but it doesn'T change the fact that not because the STRONG CORE of fans will stick & watch the NHL as long as they die , it's still a small core.

Does anyone know of any polls that were done for season ticket holders? i.e. How many season ticket holders are willing to wait 1-2+ years to get a salary cap?

The support % may be different than what people who basically watch hockey on TV think... and it's the season ticket holders whose opinion and support matters much more, IMO...

 

[chara]

There most definitely will be another meeting. In 94-95, they settled on January 11, 1995.

Expect something similar. Labour negotiations tend to be settled at the last minute as one side realizes the other isn't bluffing on a particular issue. Here its the salary cap and expect the NHLPA to stop the kicking and fighting (and name calling) and swallow it.

In the end, the key issues each side gets...

Owners: salary cap, much reduced arbritration, no bonuses for rookies
Players: reduced rollback (10-15%), reduced penalities on RFA and lower UFA, salary cap exceptions ("franchise player", penalties, etc.), guranteed contracts

Not a 100% guarantee but there'll be NHL hockey in 2005. These 2 sides are real close if the NHLPA drops the salary cap issue.

 

[Russian Fan]

All this crap about franchise values. It only matters at time of sale. And who would look to buy a big money loser such as one of these teams? If ownership had any intention of folding up for a few dollars, they could have easily done so after the offer of a 24% across the board pay cut by the NHLPA. The reason franchise values will increase under a salary cap is that teams can be turned from highly unprofitable to slightly profitable. And if they continue under the same old system the franchises will have very little value because , basically no one will want to buy a big money loser in a struggling sport.

Franchise value is not only when the team is for sale. Many owners use that franchise value to buy arenas & condos & tower around the building. Most often the franchise is use for other companies an owner have (example : Phoenix get an arena in Glendale & plan to build houses & condos & mall & etc....)

About the slightly profitable stuff, don't you think a team like the Leafs who did huge profit with a 60M$ payroll will make less with a 40M$ cap ? How about the Montreal Canadians who got a little profit with a 48,2M$ payroll & will go back to 35 , will it be a slight profitability ?

Well that's how I see it.

 

[Russian Fan]

A good CBA for the teams will incresease the value of the franchises tenfold compared to the hit they might because of cancelled season. That's why owners
have nothing to lose really. Whatever they lose in short-term, they will make up in the long term.

.And that's the reason why owners will win this one.

They already won Pepper , don't you see it ? No matter what agreement it will be of the next CBA , they already won. Now it's not about winning but how the winning will be perceive by the fans ?

 

[Russian Fan]

Well, fortunately for the NHL the level of fan hatred isn't anywhere near the level it was for MLB and the players/owners in '94. Yes there will be a hit, but not much of one. Certainly not in Canada, where hockey is such a mainstay and the fan base there really isn't calling for a protest. I seriously doubt it will be a factor in the US either since fans are so apathetic about the NHL lockout as it is.

- T

No one doubt that a 1 year of a 5 years lockout will not have an impact in Canada. Gary Bettman made a lot of propaganda about how the canadian franchise are such in bad shape. I don't say that they are WEALTHY & rich but there's a difference with the perception that Edmonton & Calgary are gonna be the next winnipeg or Quebec city.

like I said for the US. NHL will be in bad shape because half of the US market don't even talk about it so they will lose a fan base for certain & it will take a lot of time to regain what will be lost. So just imagine how it will be to gain some fan base.