GDT: 3/26/18 - 7:30PM EDT - Arizona vs Tampa Bay

[Sky04]

someone should have put clayton keller into the second row

That would take effort... something this team hasn't shown in months

 

[Lightning1995]

Honest opinions. % chance TB beats Toronto or NJ round 1. % chance the Lightning beat Boston round two if that is indeed the matchup?

 

[T REX]

What we're seeing now, and what we saw in January aren't that comparable. This stretch has been much worse.

AT one point they were 11-10 after Jan 1st. That was a mid-season whatchamacallit. Then it was we're saving our energy. Then it was bad puck luck. Then it was we aren't interested. Then it was the Gibbous Moon. Then it was the Easter bunny was kidnapped.

Excuse city.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Therrien ate Cooper's lunch...twice. And I'd hesitate to say the Lightning really adjusted well to what the Red Wings were doing in 2015 seeing as how the Red Wings were much better in possession that game and the Lightning scored their only real goal off a right point shot from Braydon Coburn of all people. Game 7 was, at best, dead even; at worst, the Red Wings were unlucky that night.

But that doesn't even really matter, because Babcock coaches a much better team now anyway. That Detroit team should've never taken the Lightning to seven games. The talent disparity was apparent even then and Babcock still took the Wings as far as he could.

Tell me, what did Therrien do so masterfully in 2015? I'm not even going to count 2014, that was a mess of a debut.

Babcock kept it as tight as he could, but even he would be the first to tell you it's easier to destroy than create. His stacked Team Canada teams have even been frustrated by inferior opponents who employ defensive hockey. That's the nature of the sport. We outlasted them, made adjustments to their neutral zone tactics and "subtle interference".

 

[Steazy Doo]

AT one point they were 11-10 after Jan 1st. That was a mid-season whatchamacallit. Then it was we're saving our energy. Then it was bad puck luck. Then it was we aren't interested. Then it was the Gibbous Moon. Then it was the Easter bunny was kidnapped.

Excuse city.

My point isn't about the actual record. It's about what I'm seeing in their play. But I have a knowledge only acquired by playing at a high level so you may not understand.

Also, those are more symptoms of sucking then actual excuses. I've never seen anyone say the 11-10 stretch was because of bad puck luck

 

[Bolt 45]

Only a trash league let's a game like this pan out the way it did. Furious about that hit on Hedman right now. Stay classy Arizona.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Honest opinions. % chance TB beats Toronto or NJ round 1. % chance the Lightning beat Boston round two if that is indeed the matchup?

The odds of beating New Jersey are 85-90%. I honestly believe that.

Toronto? 35-40%.

Boston? 5-10%.

Boston this year is like Ottawa from 2004 from a Lightning-only POV (because I don't want to hear comparisons between the two teams rosters or play-styles because that's not at all what I'm getting at; fwiw, '18 BOS > '04 OTT). A very good team that the Lightning are not gonna beat if they run into them in the playoffs. If the Lightning were to win the division and relegate the Bruins to facing Toronto in the first round? I'm not saying Toronto would win but they would give them a rough go of it. They're better equipped to beat Boston than we are. And if Boston is the team that gets to face Florida or New Jersey in the first round? Forget it. It's gonna be a slaughter for those teams. Boston will be there in the second round, and even if the Lightning do get past Toronto, they aren't gonna go any further.

That's why the division is so important. It gives them any chance at avoiding an unwinnable playoff series. They might not have beaten Ottawa in 2004. But it didn't matter because Ottawa lost earlier on and that concern went away. It's amazing what actually getting that #1 seed can do for you instead of just pissing it away at the end of the season because these guys, who have a history of not giving a sh/t for long stretches of time, are once again doing exactly that.

 

[Bolt 45]

Honest opinions. % chance TB beats Toronto or NJ round 1. % chance the Lightning beat Boston round two if that is indeed the matchup?

Better than the chance that you're actually a Lightning fan.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Anyways, it's clear that this will be a debate within the fanbase for the rest of the season. I'll take my lumps if we bow out of the first round, but I'm not freaking out here.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Tell me, what did Therrien do so masterfully in 2015? I'm not even going to count 2014, that was a mess of a debut.

Babcock kept it as tight as he could, but even he would be the first to tell you it's easier to destroy than create. His stacked Team Canada teams have even been frustrated by inferior opponents who employ defensive hockey. That's the nature of the sport. We outlasted them, made adjustments to their neutral zone tactics and "subtle interference".

Habs outshot the Lightning in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th games. Lightning scored 2, 2, (?), and 1 goals in those games (I don't know how many they scored in Game 4 but that was a blowout anyway and wasn't particularly important. They had difficulty throughout that series at getting sustained zone time or quality scoring chances. Game 6 was their best performance all-around, and if you want to give some credit to Cooper for that one I'm not going to take that away from you, but there's a couple of truths to that series in that the Lightning were fortunate to be up 3-0 in the first place, and that they very nearly pissed that 3-0 series lead away.

It was even more frustrating seeing as how the Lightning had gone 5-0 against Montreal in the regular season and, a 1-0 OT game in Montreal aside, had shown no difficulty in generating offense against them throughout the season. Yada yada "regular season != playoffs", I'm well aware, but the difference between how they looked in the previous five games and how they looked in the first five playoff games was startling. They had gone from handling Montreal easily to being handled by Montreal and getting bailed out by the Habs continually hitting the post or crossbar. Seriously, Montreal hit iron 12 times or so in that series; I remember keeping count on it. The Lightning were really, really fortunate to come out on top in that series.

 

[Steazy Doo]

Honest opinions. % chance TB beats Toronto or NJ round 1. % chance the Lightning beat Boston round two if that is indeed the matchup?

I'm a Lightning fan, but, unlike you, one who actually knows a thing or two about percentages and statistics from vigorous statistics courses at a high level. Unless something changes dramatically, this team will be playing golf in May. I'm not wishing for it, but, as has been noted here many times, it's not a switch you turn on and off. So, enjoy the big win tonight against a generationally bad defense, it doesn't mean a damn thing. What does mean something is that our PK can't stop an ECHL PP now.

Habs outshot the Lightning in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th games. Lightning scored 2, 2, (?), and 1 goals in those games (I don't know how many they scored in Game 4 but that was a blowout anyway and wasn't particularly important. They had difficulty throughout that series at getting sustained zone time or quality scoring chances. Game 6 was their best performance all-around, and if you want to give some credit to Cooper for that one I'm not going to take that away from you, but there's a couple of truths to that series in that the Lightning were fortunate to be up 3-0 in the first place, and that they very nearly pissed that 3-0 series lead away.

It was even more frustrating seeing as how the Lightning had gone 5-0 against Montreal in the regular season and, a 1-0 OT game in Montreal aside, had shown no difficulty in generating offense against them throughout the season. Yada yada "regular season != playoffs", I'm well aware, but the difference between how they looked in the previous five games and how they looked in the first five playoff games was startling. They had gone from handling Montreal easily to being handled by Montreal and getting bailed out by the Habs continually hitting the post or crossbar. Seriously, Montreal hit iron 12 times or so in that series; I remember keeping count on it. The Lightning were really, really fortunate to come out on top in that series.

It goes both ways. We looked like trash heading into the 2016 playoffs, and then we made Detroit look like a bunch of chumps. Wings played us better in the regular season then that playoff.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Habs outshot the Lightning in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th games. Lightning scored 2, 2, (?), and 1 goals in those games (I don't know how many they scored in Game 4 but that was a blowout anyway and wasn't particularly important. They had difficulty throughout that series at getting sustained zone time or quality scoring chances. Game 6 was their best performance all-around, and if you want to give some credit to Cooper for that one I'm not going to take that away from you, but there's a couple of truths to that series in that the Lightning were fortunate to be up 3-0 in the first place, and that they very nearly pissed that 3-0 series lead away.

It was even more frustrating seeing as how the Lightning had gone 5-0 against Montreal in the regular season and, a 1-0 OT game in Montreal aside, had shown no difficulty in generating offense against them throughout the season. Yada yada "regular season != playoffs", I'm well aware, but the difference between how they looked in the previous five games and how they looked in the first five playoff games was startling. They had gone from handling Montreal easily to being handled by Montreal and getting bailed out by the Habs continually hitting the post or crossbar. Seriously, Montreal hit iron 12 times or so in that series; I remember keeping count on it. The Lightning were really, really fortunate to come out on top in that series.

Well said, I'll give you Therrien.

 

[Hint1k]

The odds of beating New Jersey are 85-90%. I honestly believe that.
Toronto? 35-40%.
Boston? 5-10%.

I would say
NJD - 75%
Toronto - 65%
Boston - 55%
Pens - 50%

are more realistic figures.

 

[DFC]

So we've made a conscious effort to coast into the playoffs.

 

[T REX]

Anyways, it's clear that this will be a debate within the fanbase for the rest of the season. I'll take my lumps if we bow out of the first round, but I'm not freaking out here.

We all will be taking lumps. I prefer to eat crow though. I'll eat a whole damn buffet.

 

[Steazy Doo]

No team has 90% chance of beating us. How do you even write that out and not feel dumb. Trying to put a number on it is dumb in the first place, but only a 10% chance? It's like people don't even pay attention to some of the issues Boston has, they're not a dynasty in the making over there. They have a really good shot at beating us if we meet, but get real with that number.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

I'm a Lightning fan, but, unlike you, one who actually knows a thing or two about percentages and statistics from vigorous statistics courses at a high level. Unless something changes dramatically, this team will be playing golf in May. I'm not wishing for it, but, as has been noted here many times, it's not a switch you turn on and off. So, enjoy the big win tonight against a generationally bad defense, it doesn't mean a damn thing. What does mean something is that our PK can't stop an ECHL PP now.


It goes both ways. We looked like trash heading into the 2016 playoffs, and then we made Detroit look like a bunch of chumps. Wings played us better in the regular season then that playoff.

They did? That Red Wings team was awful. They beat the Lightning twice in Detroit very early in the season and the Lightning won the two games in Tampa, both of which were played after the road games and one of them was late in the season. It's entirely possibly my memory is failing me but the way you describe the lead-up to that first round series doesn't sound like how I remember it at all.

In any case, if we're going to compare regular season matchups between the '15 Habs and '16 Wings, then the big difference is that the Lightning and Habs played three times in March of that season, when the season was at its height. Lightning and Wings played once in March and, I think, only once in the entire 2016 part of the season. It's really not a straight comparison.

 

[AlphaCatalyst]

It's clear to me that the team is just tired.






















Of winning.

 

[dechire]

f*** all the negativity. TBL are the 2018 Stanley Cup Champions. Let's go Bolts.

 

[Steazy Doo]

They did? That Red Wings team was awful. They beat the Lightning twice in Detroit very early in the season and the Lightning won the two games in Tampa, both of which were played after the road games and one of them was late in the season. It's entirely possibly my memory is failing me but the way you describe the lead-up to that first round series doesn't sound like how I remember it at all.

In any case, if we're going to compare regular season matchups between the '15 Habs and '16 Wings, then the big difference is that the Lightning and Habs played three times in March of that season, when the season was at its height. Lightning and Wings played once in March and, I think, only once in the entire 2016 part of the season. It's really not a straight comparison.

The mood in this place going into the 2016 playoffs was similar to what it is now. "We're gonna get rolled, we have no chace" blah blah blah.

Fact is we could win, or we could lose. What's happening at this part of the season isn't a big indicator if you want to base it on the past.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

No team has 90% chance of beating us. How do you even write that out and not feel dumb. Trying to put a number on it is dumb in the first place, but only a 10% chance? It's like people don't even pay attention to some of the issues Boston has, they're not a dynasty in the making over there. They have a really good shot at beating us if we meet, but get real with that number.

I mean, that's perfectly fine and the number might be slanted overly to illustrate a broader point, but that number isn't even entirely a slant on the Lightning anyway. The Bruins are the best team in the East and arguably in the entire league. Call it 50-50 if they meet Pittsburgh because the Penguins deserve respect as the 2x Cup champions and Nashville might well be favored if that's a Cup Final meeting, but the Bruins should be, and will be, favored in a playoff series against literally anyone else they face. That team has everything going for it right now other than health, and Bergeron returned last night and as long as McAvoy and Chara are on pace to be back in time for the middle of April (ideally, a couple games before that for conditioning purposes), they're going to be more than well-built to do damage in the playoffs.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

The mood in this place going into the 2016 playoffs was similar to what it is now. "We're gonna get rolled, we have no chace" blah blah blah.

Fact is we could win, or we could lose. What's happening at this part of the season isn't a big indicator if you want to base it on the past.

With the injuries this team had at the time, I can understand that sentiment. I picked the Islanders to win the second round series. But, while I can't speak for the general consensus of this board at the time, I did believe they were going to beat Detroit in the first round, mostly because that was an aged out Detroit team that barely made the playoffs in the first place. The Lightning were a #6 seed that got to face a #8 seed in the first round. They lucked out badly. The Panthers were the #4 seed and had to face the #5 seed Islanders by comparison. The stage was set for the Lightning to be able to hold out long enough to get some of their injured players back before their season ended.

That was a lot of words to finally get around to saying that these Maple Leafs are much better than those Red Wings, so comparisons between how 2016 and 2018 ended are irrelevant in that regard anyway. Toronto would be a legitimate threat to beat the Lightning in the first round regardless. It's disappointing that we're this much closer to having to deal with this reality.

 

[Bolt 45]

So, the lack of effort is obvious. But am I alone in thinking that teams have every wrinkle of our playbook memorized by now?

And where did our forecheck go? It used to be one of our bigger strengths.

 

[MattM92]

I'm curious what the coaching staff has in mind for Game 1 to counter what every team has been doing to us for months. That is sending 2 deep on the forecheck, pressuring the pointmen, and trapping in the neutral zone. The book is out on how to beat us and it's not hard honestly. Our survival depends on the team adjusting and finding ways to fight through it. We will see in a few weeks what we can do.

 

[TeslaCoilFan]

I couldn't make one of my regular half season games so I exchanged my ticket for THIS game and even splurged to get a better seat. That'll learn me.

I'm now kinda glad that I won't be home for the game on Thursday.