Prospect Info: 25th Overall Riley Tufte

[OttMorrow]

"Project pick" aka you should probably avoid this guy and let another sucker draft him

This. All day, this.

I sincerely hope that my initial intuition on the drafting of such an unproven commodity at a high enough level of competition turns out to be wrong.

Right now it looks bad.

 

[Mr Misty]

I think some people need to get a grip. Let's just set aside the fact he was injured--how are Eakin/Sharp/Hudler doing stacking up points thus far?--only a lunatic is giving a grade on that pick today. He's about the boom or bust-est pick we could have made and guess what? Many people thought we needed to take a big swing at somebody like that and I wasn't sad when we did.

Why did we think that? Why did we want to gamble instead of being safe? Because we've historically made a lot of safe picks and the evidence is that there is no such thing. Also, at this point we've turned 6 forwards from the 11-13 drafts into NHL players. Behind them we have Smith, Elie, Ully, Stransky, Gurianov, and Hintz in the next generation. We could afford a risk on a project because we have the depth to do so. If we have
Benn Seguin Spezza
returning
Janmark Nichushkin Dickinson Shore Faksa Ritchie
as the 11-13 class
and just the 1st and 2nd rounders left
Elie Hintz Gurianov
that's 12 forwards.
2 years from now, nobody's going to be rending their garments and smearing ashes on their face because we need a rookie scoring forward.

We have lots of depth everywhere, and #25 is never a sure thing. They'll be picks that turn out better than him that came later and probably picks that turn out worse that came before. Only a person with the brain of a goldfish could forget that is how the draft works.

 

[OttMorrow]

I think some people need to get a grip. Let's just set aside the fact he was injured--how are Eakin/Sharp/Hudler doing stacking up points thus far?--only a lunatic is giving a grade on that pick today. He's about the boom or bust-est pick we could have made and guess what? Many people thought we needed to take a big swing at somebody like that and I wasn't sad when we did.

Why did we think that? Why did we want to gamble instead of being safe? Because we've historically made a lot of safe picks and the evidence is that there is no such thing. Also, at this point we've turned 6 forwards from the 11-13 drafts into NHL players. Behind them we have Smith, Elie, Ully, Stransky, Gurianov, and Hintz in the next generation. We could afford a risk on a project because we have the depth to do so. If we have
Benn Seguin Spezza
returning
Janmark Nichushkin Dickinson Shore Faksa Ritchie
as the 11-13 class
and just the 1st and 2nd rounders left
Elie Hintz Gurianov
that's 12 forwards.
2 years from now, nobody's going to be rending their garments and smearing ashes on their face because we need a rookie scoring forward.

We have lots of depth everywhere, and #25 is never a sure thing. They'll be picks that turn out better than him that came later and probably picks that turn out worse that came before. Only a person with the brain of a goldfish could forget that is how the draft works.

No, the 1st Round of a deep draft...and last year was deep, is not the time or place to take a project forward who has yet to prove anything at any competitive-level of hockey.

I've been pretty harsh of our 1st Round selections over the years, and who wouldn't given our abysmal track record?

It's not just happenstance that we haven't had a decent defense in a decade...I put a lot of the blame for that on our 1st Round ineptitude.

I'd have rather gone Boom or Bust and traded up to get Chychrun, who had dropped to 16th, than to add to our bevy of forward prospects. If you're gonna go Boom or Bust, you might as well go big on a potential #1D or top pairing D, rather than a top 6 forward who can be acquired through trade.

I really liked Dmen Ryan Lindgren and Kale Clague, who were still on the board at our pick.

Abramov was another Boom or Bust option...my highest ranked guy that was still on the board...at least he was proven in the Q and International play vs. HS. There were many others who I had ranked above Tufte. I had Tufte at 39th due to his lack of production in the USHL when given the opportunity to compete at a higher level.

Face it...we have a problem with our 1st Round choices historically, and the jury is still out on Nill's picks. I feel that Nill is better than what we've had in the past wih our 1st Rounders, but I think we can and NEED to do more.

Unless you are in the top 3, almost all 1st Rounders are "Boom or Bust", but that doesn't mean you can't pick more wisely than adding an unproven commodity in a position of depth to our prospect pool when there are less risky, rarer commodities (like Dmen with top pairing potential), and arguably higher upside options on the table.

 

[Mr Misty]

None of that matters in the least. Not one single bit. All of this moaning is because he hasn't scored. I cannot understand why somebody who thinks about the draft in general for 5 or more minutes and the Stars' drafting history for the same length of time can judge this pick today.

Anybody remember Gurianov? That was an actual reach by all measures. Remember when he did nothing for a whole year? Of course we all remember that, the Gurianov threads are hopping with lamentations and reproach for our silly scouts and their tremendous blunder. Most active thread on this board because everyone agrees that was a hopeless case that can't possibly be salvaged.

 

[serp]

If in 2-3 years Tufte still hasn't done anything we can call him a bust but not half a year after the draft. It was a late first rounder and that point there are no guarantees of anything.

 

[OttMorrow]

None of that matters in the least. Not one single bit. All of this moaning is because he hasn't scored. I cannot understand why somebody who thinks about the draft in general for 5 or more minutes and the Stars' drafting history for the same length of time can judge this pick today.

Anybody remember Gurianov? That was an actual reach by all measures. Remember when he did nothing for a whole year? Of course we all remember that, the Gurianov threads are hopping with lamentations and reproach for our silly scouts and their tremendous blunder. Most active thread on this board because everyone agrees that was a hopeless case that can't possibly be salvaged.

Did I call Tufte a bust or something?

From day 1 I was concerned about this pick...I don't like picking projects in the 1st Round. He certainly qualifies as a project. It's WAY too early to judge this pick...everyone knows that.

The Gurianov comparison doesn't really fly with me because in Gurianov's case he was not getting minutes or production in the KHL as an 18 year old. That's the 3rd best league in the world. Tufte is not even playing pro yet. Compare Tufte's 0 points in 14 games to our 4th Rounder, Rhett Garner, who has 9 points(4 goals and 5 assists) in the NCAA this year at the same age as Tufte, and there's your apples to apples comparison.

1st Round picks carry expectations, and out of the gate, Tufte is struggling. There is no denying that.

Should you have concerns about a 1st Round pick who hasn't been able to notch a single point through 14 games...yeah, you should. Does that concern get more magnified when you thought that there were better options on the table when he was picked...for sure.

Time will tell.

 

[serp]

Isn't Tuftes team one of the best if not the best in the nation and filled with alot of 20+ year olds ? Doubtful he has much of a role on the team yet. Sure he still should produce something even in a depth role but i doubt he's been given many chances right now . His injury early in the year didn't help either.

 

[Magic Mittens]

From what i read on the other Stars forum, someone mentioned hes only playing 10 minutes a game and he did get back from a big injury. He's playing more of a checking role.

Yeah I'd love to see some kind of numbers, but im not worried atm. He's got a good shot, size and decent speed. Hopefully he's learning the defensive side of the game at least while he's struggling to put up points

 

[OttMorrow]

From what i read on the other Stars forum, someone mentioned hes only playing 10 minutes a game and he did get back from a big injury. He's playing more of a checking role.

Yeah I'd love to see some kind of numbers, but im not worried atm. He's got a good shot, size and decent speed. Hopefully he's learning the defensive side of the game at least while he's struggling to put up points

You'd hope that a 1st Rounder would produce and earn himself more minutes...good team or not, we're not talking about the SEL here.

 

[Mr Misty]

Did I call Tufte a bust or something?

From day 1 I was concerned about this pick...I don't like picking projects in the 1st Round. He certainly qualifies as a project. It's WAY too early to judge this pick...everyone knows that.

The Gurianov comparison doesn't really fly with me because in Gurianov's case he was not getting minutes or production in the KHL as an 18 year old. That's the 3rd best league in the world. Tufte is not even playing pro yet. Compare Tufte's 0 points in 14 games to our 4th Rounder, Rhett Garner, who has 9 points(4 goals and 5 assists) in the NCAA this year at the same age as Tufte, and there's your apples to apples comparison.

1st Round picks carry expectations, and out of the gate, Tufte is struggling. There is no denying that.

Should you have concerns about a 1st Round pick who hasn't been able to notch a single point through 14 games...yeah, you should. Does that concern get more magnified when you thought that there were better options on the table when he was picked...for sure.

Time will tell.

Is this a joke? Gardner is 2 years older and has a year of NCAA experience already. If serp is correct about SCSt being stacked (no judgement, just don't know if it is so or not), we know that isn't the case at North Dakota where at least Caggiula is now in the NHL.

Worth mentioning that there was much wringing of hands because Gurianov was a "reach," meanwhile almost everyone had Tufte around 20 in their mocks.

Whatever concerns you may have, not one person should be surprised by this. He hurt his wrist, he was inexperienced to say the least, these things were known well in advance.

 

[Magic Mittens]

You'd hope that a 1st Rounder would produce and earn himself more minutes...good team or not, we're not talking about the SEL here.

Yeah i know what you're saying, but who knows maybe he's struggled coming back from his injuriy and is taking longer to get back into a rhythm. I havent seen him play so cant really comment

He's young enough that we can be patient with him

 

[OttMorrow]

Is this a joke? Gardner is 2 years older and has a year of NCAA experience already. If serp is correct about SCSt being stacked (no judgement, just don't know if it is so or not), we know that isn't the case at North Dakota where at least Caggiula is now in the NHL.

Worth mentioning that there was much wringing of hands because Gurianov was a "reach," meanwhile almost everyone had Tufte around 20 in their mocks.

Whatever concerns you may have, not one person should be surprised by this. He hurt his wrist, he was inexperienced to say the least, these things were known well in advance.

Ok...how about fellow 2016 1st Rounders Luke Kunin and Tage Thompson?

Kunin has 11g and 6a in 17 games at University of Wisconsin, and in college he put up 32 points in 34 games LAST YEAR.

Tage Thompson picked right after Tufte at 26th has 20 points in 18 games and had 32 points in 36 games LAST YEAR in college.

Less excuses, more production.

 

[Mr Misty]

Ok...how about fellow 2016 1st Rounders Luke Kunin and Tage Thompson?

Kunin has 11g and 6a in 17 games at University of Wisconsin, and in college he put up 32 points in 34 games LAST YEAR.

Tage Thompson picked right after Tufte at 26th has 20 points in 18 games and had 32 points in 36 games LAST YEAR in college.

Less excuses, more production.

So are you making the point that if we held a re-draft today, he would not be taken at #25? That is not in dispute nor is it particularly useful information at all.

 

[OttMorrow]

So are you making the point that if we held a re-draft today, he would not be taken at #25? That is not in dispute nor is it particularly useful information at all.

Oh, and here's even more apples to apples for you:

Riley Tufte's teammate at University of MN-Duluth, Joey Anderson was picked in 2016 in the 3rd Round by NJ. He is actually 2 months younger than Tufte, and He is 2nd on the team in scoring with 17 points in 16 games...

No, I think Nill is pretty stubborn. I think he'd likely re-draft him.

 

[Hockey Dad]

I think the wrist injury has really messed him up. For all we know he is not 100%. I'm willing to give him time before we hang him or Nill

 

[OttMorrow]

I think the wrist injury has really messed him up. For all we know he is not 100%. I'm willing to give him time before we hang him or Nill

He'd better light it up like Christmas next season, or he's gonna be on the Disappointment-to-Bust Track.

 

[Mr Misty]

He'd better light it up like Christmas next season, or he's gonna be on the Disappointment-to-Bust Track.

Like Faksa?

 

[OttMorrow]

Like Faksa?

Faksa is a two-way center, while Tufte is a wing...hard to compare the two. If Tufte isn't putting up points, it's more of a knock on him as a winger IMO, because that's his main job. Also Faksa didn't put up goose eggs after being drafted. That and I agreed with the Faksa pick at the time, given who was available.

I like Faksa, but I wouldn't exactly tout Faksa at 12th OA as a 1st Round Poster Child either. He's a 3rd line Center.


We should be shooting for top-6 forwards and top pairing Ds with a 1st Rounder.

 

[Satan]

I've drafted and deleted a few posts because I can't accurately post my emotions so here they are in a few points.


1. Fans are reactionary, myself included. It's been easy to dislike this pick from the get go.

2. It's still early to evaluate the 2013 draft, let alone the 2016 draft.

3. #25 has a probability of ~55% to play >100 NHL games. With this considered, scouts can make life easier or harder for themselves. It's hard to project kids in the USHS due to severe talent discrepancies, just like it is when kids are playing in low level European leagues.

4. Scouts are the foundation of a multimillion dollar business, yet it's very possible that the traditional scout(s) who relies on the eye test is more prone to mess up a draft.


I have several ideas on how to improve pick efficiency and improve your probability of hitting on a future NHLer that I will expand on later.

 

[Mr Misty]

Faksa is a two-way center, while Tufte is a wing...hard to compare the two. Also Faksa didn't put up goose eggs after being drafted. That and I agreed with the Faksa pick at the time, given who was available.

I wouldn't exactly tout Faksa at 12th OA as a 1st Round Poster Child either.


We should be shooting for top-6 forwards and top pairing Ds with a 1st Rounder.

Well his scoring declined substantially after his draft year and he was our 11th ranked prospect about 15 months ago. After being our 9th best prospect the year before, and the 6th, and the 4th. Behind such luminaries as Chiasson, Oleskiak, Campbell, and Pollock. Since patience and hindsight play such a big role there they obviously cannot be used again by the Stars because we used those things up. He had a few injuries but turned out OK, guess we can't compare him to Tufte in any way.

I wish you would say things like "We should be shooting for top-6 forwards and top pairing Ds with a 1st Rounder" to Joe McDonnell, he obviously hasn't thought of that. You don't like playing it safe and you don't like taking a risk, so don't forget to tell him "Only draft players who turn out really good," I'm sure that would be a big help as well.

 

[OttMorrow]

I've drafted and deleted a few posts because I can't accurately post my emotions so here they are in a few points.


1. Fans are reactionary, myself included. It's been easy to dislike this pick from the get go.

2. It's still early to evaluate the 2013 draft, let alone the 2016 draft.

3. #25 has a probability of ~55% to play >100 NHL games. With this considered, scouts can make life easier or harder for themselves. It's hard to project kids in the USHS due to severe talent discrepancies, just like it is when kids are playing in low level European leagues.

4. Scouts are the foundation of a multimillion dollar business, yet it's very possible that the traditional scout(s) who relies on the eye test is more prone to mess up a draft.


I have several ideas on how to improve pick efficiency and improve your probability of hitting on a future NHLer that I will expand on later.

I agree on all points.

 

[OttMorrow]

I wish you would say things like "We should be shooting for top-6 forwards and top pairing Ds with a 1st Rounder" to Joe McDonnell, he obviously hasn't thought of that. You don't like playing it safe and you don't like taking a risk, so don't forget to tell him "Only draft players who turn out really good," I'm sure that would be a big help as well.

My initial judgment of a pick has to do with their upside and risk relative to those around them...It is in my judgment, that there were players who had better combinations along with risk/reward spectrums than Tufte when we picked at 25. His production this year so far is PERHAPS evidence of the high risk inherent in this pick...perhaps it's an aberration. I hope to be wrong...I just so rarely am wrong that it gets discouraging when I see things unfolding coincidentally to my initial reaction to a pick.

 

[Morry83]

I still believe in Tufte, but man do I wish we had drafted Tage Thompson. Kid's gonna be so good.

 

[OttMorrow]

I still believe in Tufte, but man do I wish we had drafted Tage Thompson. Kid's gonna be so good.

Right now, it's looking like there were MANY better options on the table when we picked.

So...not must has changed in my eyes since draft day regarding the Tufte pick.

I think he's going to be an NHL player to some degree, but it's how he compares to the other players drafted in the 10-15 picks or so after him that matter (including Tage), along with how the players whose consensus ranking was higher or close to his and still available.


Names to watch and compare for the next few years to Riley:

Abramov (the guy highest on my list..on pace for about 50 goals in the OHL this year, and is driving his team's offense...he's got 30% more points than the next player on his team this year)
Lindgren
Clague
Asplund
Dahlen
Steel
Debrincat
Mascherin
Benson
Grundstrom

...to name a few. I had all of them above Tufte along with some others.


I went back and looked at my draft rankings...missing a few years, but for the one's I still have records for, here's who I had highest on my list when we picked...on my pre-draft lists:


Fowler instead of Campbell
Fabbri instead of Honka
Barzal instead of Gurianov
Abramov instead of Tufte

What's sad is that most of our picks would be doing better than our scouts' and GMs' picks in the 1st, I'm sure. Jury is still out on Honka, Gurianov, and Tufte, but right now I'd be ahead of the game.

 

[Magic Mittens]

Right now, it's looking like there were MANY better options on the table when we picked.

So...not must has changed in my eyes since draft day regarding the Tufte pick.

I think he's going to be an NHL player to some degree, but it's how he compares to the other players drafted in the 10-15 picks or so after him that matter (including Tage), along with how the players whose consensus ranking was higher or close to his and still available.


Names to watch and compare for the next few years to Riley:

Abramov (the guy highest on my list..on pace for about 50 goals in the OHL this year, and is driving his team's offense...he's got 30% more points than the next player on his team this year)
Lindgren
Clague
Asplund
Dahlen
Steel
Debrincat
Mascherin
Benson
Grundstrom

...to name a few. I had all of them above Tufte along with some others.


I went back and looked at my draft rankings...missing a few years, but for the one's I still have records for, here's who I had highest on my list when we picked...on my pre-draft lists:


Fowler instead of Campbell
Fabbri instead of Honka
Barzal instead of Gurianov
Abramov instead of Tufte

What's sad is that most of our picks would be doing better than our scouts' and GMs' picks in the 1st, I'm sure. Jury is still out on Honka, Gurianov, and Tufte, but right now I'd be ahead of the game.

Anyone over Campbell would be better. I like Fabbri and was hoping we'd take him, but im still very happy with Honka. As for Gurianov its still early and he does lool like he'll be in the NHL, whether hes a top 6 or bottom 6 is another question.

Tufte I dont know anymore. Its hard to watch other players doing well that were picked after him, but hes still very young. Nill should have traded back 4-6 spots and grabbed an extra pick, probably still could have gotten Tufte

It sucks not having a prospect of ours being some kind of an impact at the world Jr's