25 under 25 - HF Edition - #2
- Thread starter 1865
- Start date
FlyTimmo
pit <3
- Jul 10, 2013
- 12,427
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I can easily pass on Myers for Hart, and I have a feeling that will be the consensus as well.
- Sep 28, 2014
- 76,579
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Settle down kemosabe.
You do realize people are weighing potential with this vote right?
A potential franchise goaltender, our first in like 30 years, is preetttttyyyyyy important. Hart's juniors career was more accomplished than any Flyers prospect since Lindros. He's passed all tests so far.
FlyTimmo
pit <3
- Jul 10, 2013
- 12,427
- 10,444
NO... It's a joke at this point.
How is it possible on a team that hasn't had a high quality goalie in 20 years prefer the best goalie prospect in the world over Myers?
Hype is ridiculously out of control.
Stizzle
Registered User
- Feb 3, 2012
- 13,209
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Look around the league. Goalies are flakey. Pittsburgh is winning Stanley Cups with average rotating goalies. The Caps just won the Stanley Cup with Grubauer starting the playoffs as starter and Holtby finishing. The reigning Vezina winner got pulled from 3(?) playoff games this year. Several of the goalies considered elite a few years ago have fallen off a cliff.
To me, it feels insane to pass on a dynamo like TK or 2 huge, skilled defensemen. Myers has the nickname "unicorn" around here for a reason. Guys like him and Sanheim don't exactly grow on trees. Heck, with the insane value centers are fetching these days add Frost to the list as well. MF, TS, and PM are guys with a high probability of success and play premium positions.
Magua
Entirely Palatable Product
- Sep 28, 2014
- 76,579
- 123,068
You undervalue Carter Hart and what him being as advertised will mean for the organization in my opinion. That's fine. I accept that.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 52,934
- 86,096
I hope it's a better list than the one you provided on page 1.
Captain Dave Poulin
Imaginary Cat
1865
Alpha Couturier
Your post has a mixed message. On one hand you’re calling Hart a junior goalie and then saying you’ll take the other two for their potential to be top four.
We’re saying that based on a combination of what their ceiling is projected to be and what we already have then we see Hart being a more valuable piece than the rest. His ceiling is a Vezina winner. It’s no sleight to Myers or Sanheim but we already have Provy and Ghost.
Stizzle
Registered User
- Feb 3, 2012
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His ceiling is Vezina winner.
What's his floor? Career backup?
What's his probability of Vezina? Not all that high. He could end up anywhere on the spectrum. He's not nearly the natural athlete guys like Vasilevsky, Bob, or Gibson are. His best traits are being mature beyond his years both mentally and fundamentally. The range of possible outcomes for him is wide and probabilities are difficult to assign.
What's Sanheim's ceiling? Top pair. Even a number #1 if he didn't have a dinasour coach and extreme competition for playing time.
What's his floor? A high-end 2nd pair.
Probability of ending up solidly in that range? Pretty close to 100% barring injury or a mental breakdown from dealing with Hak.
Big difference.
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
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Sanheim's floor is an underachieving 3rd pair defensemen who never learns to play defense and doesn't sustain enough offense to compensate - Carle in his bad seasons, which outnumbered his good seasons, or MDZ.
Sanheim is not Provorov, he doesn't have the high hockey IQ that ensures he's valuable even when he doesn't score, and he isn't as offensively gifted as Ghost. He has more upside than Ghost because of his size and speed, but he has to be able to effectively utilize those raw physical skills to approach his ceiling.
Sanheim is not Provorov, he doesn't have the high hockey IQ that ensures he's valuable even when he doesn't score, and he isn't as offensively gifted as Ghost. He has more upside than Ghost because of his size and speed, but he has to be able to effectively utilize those raw physical skills to approach his ceiling.
Tripod
I hate this team
You said Ghost would be expendable because Sanheim was a bigger, better version.
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
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Yes, if he reaches his ceiling. He's bigger and faster and if he puts it together, will be harder to shut down 5x5.
There's a difference between potential and production.
Too many people look at Sanheim last year and confused the two, he was below average scoring pp/60 5x5, and an offensive defensemen who isn't much of a defensive player has to score.
Hopefully he'll start translating potential into production this year.
But remember Carle started strong but never sustained it, MDZ had a couple nice seasons but never sustained it, offensive defensivemen who aren't fundamentally sound tend to fizzle out.
There's a difference between potential and production.
Too many people look at Sanheim last year and confused the two, he was below average scoring pp/60 5x5, and an offensive defensemen who isn't much of a defensive player has to score.
Hopefully he'll start translating potential into production this year.
But remember Carle started strong but never sustained it, MDZ had a couple nice seasons but never sustained it, offensive defensivemen who aren't fundamentally sound tend to fizzle out.
1865
Alpha Couturier
You really seem to be struggling with the concept of voting on potential. Hart is going to be a starting goalie for us and looks like being a great one. Myers and sanheim might be top pairing guys but we already have that.
Stizzle
Registered User
- Feb 3, 2012
- 13,209
- 23,193
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 49,215
- 21,617
There are three different questions:
1) what is a player's upside
2) what are the odds a player approaches that upside
3) what is the players' most likely outcome
To me, Myers is "safer" than Sanheim, because if he doesn't blossom offensively, he could still had a solid career as a Coburn type, whereas if Sanheim never develops, he's more likely to be someone like MDZ.
Myers also has a higher ceiling as a potential two way force, whereas Sanheim right now looks like your typical offensive defenseman who you hope is adequate on defense.
They both have much higher ceilings than Morin, who lacks the offensive skills to be a force, and still has to show he can develop into a shutdown defensive defenseman.
1) what is a player's upside
2) what are the odds a player approaches that upside
3) what is the players' most likely outcome
To me, Myers is "safer" than Sanheim, because if he doesn't blossom offensively, he could still had a solid career as a Coburn type, whereas if Sanheim never develops, he's more likely to be someone like MDZ.
Myers also has a higher ceiling as a potential two way force, whereas Sanheim right now looks like your typical offensive defenseman who you hope is adequate on defense.
They both have much higher ceilings than Morin, who lacks the offensive skills to be a force, and still has to show he can develop into a shutdown defensive defenseman.
1865
Alpha Couturier
I'm honestly struggling to understand your problem here.
You're talking about ceilings and floors, but seem to talk as if Sanheim and Myers are guaranteed things. They're all question marks, they're all prospects.
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