24.5% Stupid Bettman

[supsens]

Ok seriously I thought after the play in round all non playoff teams go into the second draft. WTF is this?

These teams have a 24% chance to win? And if they win they could have a 23% chance to win another and then a 21% chance to win the last? I am not happy, how does this happen? The 9th and 10th place teams have a better shot at first then everyone?

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[Micklebot]

The odds of a team from 9 to 15 winning a top 3 pick are the same as they always have been. The only difference is they have evened out their odds so that its the same for teams 9 to 15 by having that 2nd draw

Each team that loses the play in round will in effect have a 3.06% chance at the top pick.

 

[Sweatred]

Who is the team most likely to finish last in the playoffs in round ? What team if they lose defaults to last? If they win a 1-3 pick we’re going to see an all time TANK. Feels like MTL may be close.

Imagine unknown “b” wins the draft and all MTL has to do to win the draft is to tank its round.

 

[supsens]

The odds of a team from 9 to 15 winning a top 3 pick are the same as they always have been. The only difference is they have evened out their odds so that its the same for teams 9 to 15 by having that 2nd draw

Each team that loses the play in round will in effect have a 3.06% chance at the top pick.

They did and didn't even the odds, if a team wins first overall they get no credit or bonus other than having to win again. I dont think Chicago should have a equal shot at first because Montreal won the draft. The probability of winning two drafts in a row can't be all that great.

 

[OgieO]

I don't have a big problem with it in the context of this year. They made it pretty fair based on how the lottery was designed entering the season. I don't like top teams like Pittsburgh having a chance, even 3%, if they lose the play-in round but no solution was going to be perfect. Maybe they could have seeded the 8-15 based on point % but not sure how you do a lottery early that way, so I get it. My beef is with the lottery format as it existed. It's way too penalizing for the worst teams imo. Look at how bad Detroit was this year. They SHOULD get a top pick and should be guaranteed a pick higher than 4 imo. They should also have better than an 18.5% chance at #1, that's such a huge penalty to the worst team. I dunno, maybe keep the odds as is but make one draw only. I get it, the lottery provides little incentive to tank,but it doesn't seem fair to the worst teams.

 

[BondraTime]

I mean, that’s the normal odds. It’s sucks, but nothing strange about it. Its part of the reason picking 5-6 wouldn’t be strange.

 

[Micklebot]

They did and didn't even the odds, if a team wins first overall they get no credit or bonus other than having to win again. I dont think Chicago should have a equal shot at first because Montreal won the draft. The probability of winning two drafts in a row can't be all that great.

Every team 9 to 15 has equal odds of winning a top 3 pick, you might not feel thats fair (i think its dumb, they should just have had the lottery after the play in and then there would be no need for the nonsense) but they needed to prevent a situation where a team in the play in round was highly incentivised to lose on purpose.

This setup doesn't effect us at all other then teams that would normally be in the 12 to 15 spots having slightly better odds than normal (3% instead of 1 to 2.5).

The really dumb part is of a team like the pens loses the play in and then you have the 8th best reg season team getting the same odds as the 11th worst team would normally get.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

At the end of the day, Ottawa has the best odds of winning the draft lottery than any other team.

 

[Xspyrit]

Every team 9 to 15 has equal odds of winning a top 3 pick, you might not feel thats fair (i think its dumb, they should just have had the lottery after the play in and then there would be no need for the nonsense) but they needed to prevent a situation where a team in the play in round was highly incentivised to lose on purpose.

This setup doesn't effect us at all other then teams that would normally be in the 12 to 15 spots having slightly better odds than normal (3% instead of 1 to 2.5).

The really dumb part is of a team like the pens loses the play in and then you have the 8th best reg season team getting the same odds as the 11th worst team would normally get.

NHL players don't really lose on purpose though. They play to win. GMs and ownership can have an influence on their team's season but once a team is set, it's set. At this point, GMs won't be able to make moves to affect the outset

That's why the NHL strategy makes sense considering the situation. They are trying to make everyone happy which is somewhat impossible

 

[playasRus]

I think they're relatively fair. The only time someone has an issue is when it's their team is a bottom feeder. They have so much to lose if they don't win 1OA multiple times, it's like perpetual losing.

You never see 5OA complain about dropping to 6OA or 7OA because they had that ~20% small albeit decent of a chance to jump into the top 3 while not being the absolute trash.

So you might tweak it a bit and say, can' tmov eup more than say 5 spots like it was before. Then our 2nd and 3rd OA picks are suddenly uber sexy likely to stay at 2 OA and 3 OA (I can't math it but i think it'd be ballpark ~30% chance team from 8-16 win all three), with 62% chance we win a top 3 pick. So ~90% chance of two top 3 pick (25 out of that 90 would be us moving up to 1OA).

 

[Boud]

At the end of the day, Ottawa has the best odds of winning the draft lottery than any other team.

True but they have rougly 75-80% chance of not getting it.

Let's put it this way... if I was going to bet on a team winning it it'd be Ottawa or Detroit but I wouldn't bet on it because chances are still pretty damn slim.

Even if the Sens have the best odds, they're still in a lottery with 14 other teams that have a much better combined chance to win it.

 

[BondraTime]

True but they have rougly 75-80% chance of not getting it.

Let's put it this way... if I was going to bet on a team winning it it'd be Ottawa or Detroit but I wouldn't bet on it because chances are still pretty damn slim.

Even if the Sens have the best odds, they're still in a lottery with 14 other teams that have a much better combined chance to win it.

Yeah, if you HAD to bet, Ottawa is the smart bet.

But nobody should ever place a lot of money on Ottawa, because 3/4 times they are losing their money. It wouldn’t be smart.

 

[Upgrayedd]

My only issue with it and it's small is that the lottery should be completed after all teams with a ticket are known, simply for optics it will be silly to see team b win a top 3 selection, at last check I think I read an unknown team has a combined 70%ish shot at one of those top 3 so it is somewhat to be expected, I welcome correction on this though.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Just remember, as much as were complaining about someone 8-15 winning it and how unfair it is, at some point Ottawa will be in that 8-15 range as well.

There was a reason we changed it. Too many times teams in the 8-15 range weren't good enough to make the playoffs but weren't bad enough to get a top pick. Equally it created some bad hockey when teams didnt have anything to play for.

I like this solution longterm, I just wish there was a better way to ensure teams in the bottom 5 didnt get moved down so much. I would have preferred something where there was a "max" 8 or something movement.

 

[BondraTime]

Just remember, as much as were complaining about someone 8-15 winning it and how unfair it is, at some point Ottawa will be in that 8-15 range as well.

There was a reason we changed it. Too many times teams in the 8-15 range weren't good enough to make the playoffs but weren't bad enough to get a top pick. Equally it created some bad hockey when teams didnt have anything to play for.

I like this solution longterm, I just wish there was a better way to ensure teams in the bottom 5 didnt get moved down so much. I would have preferred something where there was a "max" 8 or something movement.

That wasn’t why it was changed, that likely wasn’t even thought of as a reason for the change.

It was changed because of a teams ability to tank intentionally and have a huge chance at remaining at #1, like Buffalo did. Now with 3 drafts and a team able to move more than 4 spots, tanking isn’t a viable route to 1st. Those teams being able to get 1st was just a means to an end, which was to stop the intentional tanking.

 

[thinkwild]

Yeah given there was no really perfect solution, this imperfect solution seems as good as any.

That wasn’t why it was changed, that likely wasn’t even thought of as a reason for the change.

It was changed because of a teams ability to tank intentionally and have a huge chance at remaining at #1, like Buffalo did. Now with 3 drafts and a team able to move more than 4 spots, tanking isn’t a viable route to 1st. Those teams being able to get 1st was just a means to an end, which was to stop the intentional tanking.

And yet it doesn’t really seem to have worked as intended. Even though I knew the odds were against us picking 1st even if we did “successfully” tank and finish last, I still wanted to do it because, well we all get it.

I also got frustrated seeing the Oilers getting all those tanking rewards. Along with seeing how the cap itself was to provide parity, this led me to initially support the idea of the lottery weighted as it currently is. But now that I see it not having the intended effect of discouraging tanking and only really penalizing the truly bad and needy teams and giving less “deserving” teams the top picks, I have to wonder if this war on tanking was any more effective than the war on drugs.

 

[Cosmix]

At the end of the day, Ottawa has the best odds of winning the draft lottery than any other team.

Yes for winning the 1st lottery draw, because Ottawa has its own and SJ’s first round picks.

 

[Cosmix]

NHL players don't really lose on purpose though. They play to win. GMs and ownership can have an influence on their team's season but once a team is set, it's set. At this point, GMs won't be able to make moves to affect the outset

That's why the NHL strategy makes sense considering the situation. They are trying to make everyone happy which is somewhat impossible

Exactly. The players want to win; the management too.

 

[Cosmix]

Yeah, if you HAD to bet, Ottawa is the smart bet.

But nobody should ever place a lot of money on Ottawa, because 3/4 times they are losing their money. It wouldn’t be smart.

The odds of winning and the payout percentages do not deter people from wagering on lotteries and horse races, nor playing bingo!

 

[TheNewEra]

so if one of the teams thats in the playin round ends up winning the lottery will we see both teams tank in the game?

 

[Rysto]

To avoid that possibility, there will be a second lottery after the play-in round to determine which team moves up in the draft.

 

[Random Comment]

I’ll tell you right now what will happen. Two play in teams will take top 3 spots. This will “screw” Ottawa a bit. The NHL will notice the is and say hey maybe our lotto system isn’t set up right, let’s change the things around so this doesn’t happen (I.e. only top 5 can win 1st, top 10 can win 2nd, and top 15 can win 3).

 

[Cosmix]

so if one of the teams thats in the playin round ends up winning the lottery will we see both teams tank in the game?

No. The reason is that the first lottery draw determines the winners of the top 3 picks, and any picks won by the 8 losers of the play-in are placed into a second lottery where each of the play-in lottery teams has a 12.5% chance of wining one of those picks.

 

[TheNewEra]

No. The reason is that the first lottery draw determines the winners of the top 3 picks, and any picks won by the 8 losers of the play-in are placed into a second lottery where each of the play-in lottery teams has a 12.5% chance of wining one of those picks.

ah ok. Thank you and Rysto for clarifying.

 

[Xspyrit]

I know I said earlier that they did the best they could to make everyone happy but that being said, since the situation is so unusual this year, they really should have made a lottery for the 7 teams not participating in the qualifying round or the playoffs.

Then another lottery for the teams eliminated to draft #8. I mean, the draft is very good this year, we barely made it past the trade deadline, no team had the opportunity to "tank" even if they had the intention (like by trading solid NHL players at the deadline). Teams would still have the oportunity to draft future stars from #8 to #15, and having a chance to make the playoffs + a chance to draft #8 OA SHOULD HAVE BEEN ENOUGH.

These bubble teams have :

- 24.5% chance to win a top-3 pick (because it's cumulative, which is where it's a bit unfair)
- chance to make the playoffs and go far

What do bottom the 7 teams have? Better odds that's it.

Really, this year is different, so they could have made it differently. Bottom teams kinda get screwed

I really hope the top-3 picks stay in the bottom-7 this year. Common hockey Gods