Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Entry Draft (Ducks pick #3, They didn’t drop! OMG It’s a Miracle!)

[duckaroosky]

I've had Tuesdays off for like the last 3 years. My job just dropped on me that they are changing my schedule starting the week of May 6th so I'll have to work May 7th. I said I already had plans (the draft lottery) and their response was I have to use my PTO or make up the missed day a different week. So I'm going to quit (there's a multitude of other reasons but that's the final straw).

So I hope the draft is worth it!!!

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

https://t.co/FBfpVJ4Dn6

levy write up.... hes honestly perfect pick up for us

 

[la patineuse]

Who is ready to draft 4!!???!!!??

Gonna be awesome to drop again!

You're an optimist.

 

[AngelDuck]

Celebrini
Demidov
Dickinson
Buium

Have to get one of these players ImO

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Celebrini
Demidov
Dickinson
Buium

Have to get one of these players ImO

I’d say

Celebrini
Levshunov
Buium
Yakemchuk

 

[Gliff]

Celebrini
Demidov
Levshunov
---
Buium
Lindstrom
Yakemchuk
Dickinson
Catton
---
Helenius
Parekh

I think it is a clear 1,2,3, then the 2nd and 3rd groups. Yakemchuk obviously is the best fit out of the 2nd group.

 

[Gliff]

For the people that think Russians are going to be chained to the KHL. Michkov might be coming 1 year early lol.

Demidov is closer to Celebrini then he is to the next best forward in this draft. If they can get him 3-5 then it would be a dream.

 

[forever1922]

For the people that think Russians are going to be chained to the KHL. Michkov might be coming 1 year early lol.

It seems you missed the point of the previous discussion. It has everything to do with the situation with Russia, weekly or monthly communication with players, availability, coaching, literal danger to the person. It is not beneficial to think the way you continue to and it in fact is disrespectful to those who have to endure it. No one is saying they could never make it, just that it is not the same and it should be taken into consideration.

Flyers have managed to find and jump through some hoops it seems to make some good with the SKA FO, while Michkov is spending his seasons playing in Sochi. Fantastic, ideal?

 

[Gliff]

It seems you missed the point of the previous discussion. It has everything to do with the situation with Russia, weekly or monthly communication with players, availability, coaching, literal danger to the person. It is not beneficial to think the way you continue to and it in fact is disrespectful to those who have to endure it. No one is saying they could never make it, just that it is not the same and it should be taken into consideration.

Flyers have managed to find and jump through some hoops it seems to make some good with the SKA FO, while Michkov is spending his seasons playing in Sochi. Fantastic, ideal?

What in the hell are you talking about? Because I think Putin is not going to force hockey players to stay in Russia I'm being disrespectful?

I agree being Russian carries with it circumstances that need to be taken into account more then players from other countries. Things like being able to use the KHL threat to negotiate a less then ideal second contract (like Kaprizov did), or signing a second contract in Russia and not coming over until until age 24 or later (also Kaprizov). But that's not what people are saying.

People are saying the Russian government is going to force players to stay in Russia to play hockey in the KHL. This has not happened. It is a ghost story. It is speculation and at the very best an educated concern. The Fedotov situation is completely different since he was in the Russian military.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

For the people that think Russians are going to be chained to the KHL. Michkov might be coming 1 year early lol.

Demidov is closer to Celebrini then he is to the next best forward in this draft. If they can get him 3-5 then it would be a dream.

That would be a very good gesture and sign about drafting Russian prospects. It's still a gamble.

I don't know if Demidov is closer to Celebrini as the next, best forward in this draft. Demidov's productions have all been in the MHL, which is below the VHL and KHL. All that MHL 2.0 ppg rate didn't show up in his one VHL game nor four KHL game this year.

• D-1 season in MHL
  • Michkov
    • Games: 28
    • Scoring: 30g + 21a = 51 pts (two teams)
    • ppg rate = 1.82
  • Demidov:
    • Games: 44
    • Scoring: 19g + 45a = 64 pts (two teams)
    • ppg rate = 1.45

Since Michkov didn't play in the MHL in his D+0 regular season, I can only compare his D-1 with Demidov. It seems like Demidov is more of a playmaker than goal scorer in his D-1 season. Demidov is not close to Michkov's goal scoring and scoring prowess in their D-1 season.

Russian Hockey Hierarchy


The MHL is equivalent to the NA juniors (CHL). I don't know which is the better league, though.

==================
Is Demidov the #2 foward?
==================

I do like Lindstrom more than Demidov when doing this little scouting excursion b/c I like Lindstrom's goal scoring to go along with this unicorn metrics + skills combo.

• D+1 season
  • Lindstrom
    • League: CHL
    • Games: 32
    • Scoring: 27g + 19a = 46 pts (two teams)
    • ppg rate = 1.45
  • Demidov:
    • League: MHL
    • Games: 30
    • Scoring: 23g + 37a = 60 pts (two teams)
    • ppg rate = 2.00

Demidov is a short, playmaking RW at 5'11 and 181 lbs, as per Central Scouting (EU). Lindstrom, compared to Demidov, is a behemoth, goal scoring C at 6'3.25" and 210 lbs, as per Central Scouting (NA). It is this season that Lindstrom began to blossom to where his ceiling has exponentially skyrocketed.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

If the Russian concern is non existent, all the more reason to draft Silayev

 

[Hockey Duckie]

What in the hell are you talking about? Because I think Putin is not going to force hockey players to stay in Russia I'm being disrespectful?

I agree being Russian carries with it circumstances that need to be taken into account more then players from other countries. Things like being able to use the KHL threat to negotiate a less then ideal second contract (like Kaprizov did), or signing a second contract in Russia and not coming over until until age 24 or later (also Kaprizov). But that's not what people are saying.

People are saying the Russian government is going to force players to stay in Russia to play hockey in the KHL. This has not happened. It is a ghost story. It is speculation and at the very best an educated concern. The Fedotov situation is completely different since he was in the Russian military.

Sure, you can make a carve out for then soon to be 26 year old Fedotov, but it still stands that Fedotov was forced to stay in Russia after signing an NHL contract. The fact it did happen is significant upon the hockey world that it involved the IIHF.

 

[Gliff]

That would be a very good gesture and sign about drafting Russian prospects. It's still a gamble.

I don't know if Demidov is closer to Celebrini as the next, best forward in this draft. Demidov's productions have all been in the MHL, which is below the VHL and KHL. All that MHL 2.0 ppg rate didn't show up in his one VHL game nor four KHL game this year.

• D-1 season in MHL
  • Michkov
    • Games: 28
    • Scoring: 30g + 21a = 51 pts (two teams)
    • ppg rate = 1.82
  • Demidov:
    • Games: 44
    • Scoring: 19g + 45a = 64 pts (two teams)
    • ppg rate = 1.45

Since Michkov didn't play in the MHL in his D+0 regular season, I can only compare his D-1 with Demidov. It seems like Demidov is more of a playmaker than goal scorer in his D-1 season. Demidov is not close to Michkov's goal scoring and scoring prowess in their D-1 season.

Russian Hockey Hierarchy


The MHL is equivalent to the NA juniors (CHL). I don't know which is the better league, though.

==================
Is Demidov the #2 foward?
==================

I do like Lindstrom more than Demidov when doing this little scouting excursion b/c I like Lindstrom's goal scoring to go along with this unicorn metrics + skills combo.

• D+1 season
  • Lindstrom
    • League: CHL
    • Games: 32
    • Scoring: 27g + 19a = 46 pts (two teams)
    • ppg rate = 1.45
  • Demidov:
    • League: MHL
    • Games: 30
    • Scoring: 23g + 37a = 60 pts (two teams)
    • ppg rate = 2.00

Demidov is a short, playmaking RW at 5'11 and 181 lbs, as per Central Scouting (EU). Lindstrom, compared to Demidov, is a behemoth, goal scoring C at 6'3.25" and 210 lbs, as per Central Scouting (NA). It is this season that Lindstrom began to blossom to where his ceiling has exponentially skyrocketed.

Demidov played 7:30 a game in his 4 games in the KHL. Those 4 games mean literally nothing. The last game he only played 2:45.
In his one VHL game he had 6 shots on goal.

If Demidov played in the CHL he would be torching them.

Sure, you can make a carve out for then soon to be 26 year old Fedotov, but it still stands that Fedotov was forced to stay in Russia after signing an NHL contract. The fact it did happen is significant upon the hockey world that it involved the IIHF.

How are people not understanding this. He was an active member of the Russian military. Would the US government let a person with a year left on their military contract leave to go play hockey in the KHL?

 

[tomd]

Drafting a player headed for Harvard is riskier than drafting a Russian.

 

[FiveTacos]

I'm actually okay with just about anyone. They've all got question marks, plus outside of RHD there's no huge need, and even then we might have solutions in the system.

In fact given our sheer number of picks, the young guys already here, and the strong pipeline, this is one of those few times I'm going to say we should absolutely swing for the fences with that first pick with the highest upside guy possible, even if there's a low floor. It's devastating for most rebuilding teams to miss really high, but our situation is not what it was even last year. A miss now does not diminish our future ... And a home run that pays off huge? Look out.

 

[Gliff]

Drafting a player headed for Harvard is riskier than drafting a Russian.

This lol. Noone talks about avoiding a player from Harvard but we have lost more college players to UFA then the whole NHL has lost to the Russian government forcing players to stay.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Drafting a player headed for Harvard is riskier than drafting a Russian.

This lol. Noone talks about avoiding a player from Harvard but we have lost more college players to UFA then the whole NHL has lost to the Russian government forcing players to stay.

Yep. Plus even highly drafted College guys often spend 1 more year in college: Beniers, Powers, Zegras, Cutter(2). A Russian player taking 1 to 2 years before they arrive isn't much more than that.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

If the Russian concern is non existent, all the more reason to draft Silayev

Just depends where we have Silayev on the board.

I still think levshunov is the best fit/best dmen available in the draft.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Cole Hutson having a pretty big U-18

8 points in 4 games.

 

[Rasp]

I prefer not to draft Buium over the other D.

My concern is his tendency to play hero puck and lack of strength to protect the puck. He also has a small frame so he will have a limited ceiling when it comes to improving his strength

 

[Hockey Duckie]

This lol. Noone talks about avoiding a player from Harvard but we have lost more college players to UFA then the whole NHL has lost to the Russian government forcing players to stay.

I have brought up this issue about drafting college bound players, or rather lack of drafting college players.

Verbeek has mostly avoided drafting college bound prospects. We've drafted the same amount of college bound prospects as Russian prospects (in a Russian league to be specific) in Verbeek's past two seasons, both in the later rounds: RW Callow from 2022, 5th round, and double overager G Buteyets 2022, 6th round.

In the 2022 draft, Verbeek had a chance to draft scoring RW Jimmy Snuggerud. Snuggerud was set to go the NCAA route, like most US NDTP players. Verbeek decided on projected shutdown 3C Gaucher. (This past season, Verbeek complained about not having any top-end scoring in the system. Fortunately, we were able to trade for LW Cutter Gauthier.) Snuggerud got drafted one pick after we selected Gaucher.

To give the aforementioned premise proper perspective, here's a list of NCAA bound players drafted in the last three years under GM Murray. We go from drafting a minimum of three per draft in three years to one late round prospect in two drafts. We go from drafting five college bound prospects in the first three rounds for three drafts under Murray to none under Verbeek for two drafts.

• In 2021, we drafted three college bound prospects: RW Pastujov (Rd 3), overager C Loping (Rd 4), and C Kukkonen (Rd 6). GM Murray persuaded Pastujov to change from playing in the NCAA to the CHL, specifically the Guelph Storm. That's where skating specialist, Barb Underhill (I hope that's her name), has been assisting players with improving thier skating.

• In 2020, we drafted three college bound prospects and one Russian. College bound were RW Colangelo (Rd 2), RD Ian Moore (Rd 3), and C Bowen (Rd 7). The latter retired from hockey before reaching the NCAA. The one Russian we drafted was LW Galimov (Rd 5).

• In 2019, we drafted five college bound prospects: C Zegras (Rd 1), LD LaCombe (Rd 2), LD Thrun (Rd 4), C Janicke (Rd 5), and RD Francis (Rd 6).

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I'm actually okay with just about anyone. They've all got question marks, plus outside of RHD there's no huge need, and even then we might have solutions in the system.

In fact given our sheer number of picks, the young guys already here, and the strong pipeline, this is one of those few times I'm going to say we should absolutely swing for the fences with that first pick with the highest upside guy possible, even if there's a low floor. It's devastating for most rebuilding teams to miss really high, but our situation is not what it was even last year. A miss now does not diminish our future ... And a home run that pays off huge? Look out.

Outside of winning the #1 overall pick, which would obviously be C Celebrini, I'm focused on defensive d-man types. We are lacking in that department. That's why RD Lev is the 2nd best prospect for the Ducks behind Celebrini. He's a two-way, physical D that's quickly grasping how to play defense at the NCAA level (led his team in +/-). It helps that's he's also offensively inclined too (2nd on team scoring by one less point). After Lev, then I'd be looking at Dickinson, who's noted for his defense, but many scouts do not envision to translate to the NHL level.

Like you said, we're not trying to build a foundational core b/c we already have a foundational core. What we're trying to do is add the finishing pieces to that foundational core. Although, I do like C Lindstrom over Dickinson, most teams aren't willing to give away top-4 d-men.

• Core Players
  • Forwards
    • RW Terry (Rd 5)
    • C Zegras (Rd 1, 9th OA)
    • C McTavish (Rd 1, 3rd OA)
    • LW Cutter (Rd 1, 5th OA)
    • C Carlsson (Rd 1, 2nd OA)
  • Defense
    • LD Minty (Rd 1, 10th OA)
    • LD Zell (Rd 2, 34th OA)
    • RD Luneau (Rd 2, 53rd OA)

I have no clue if Verbeek sees LD LaCombe as part of the core or trade captital b/c Verbeek doesn't want players playing on their off-side.

We have invested a whole lot at forward with four top-10 picks to only one top-10 (or even first round) defensive draft selection. If we draft RD Lev, then we get both offense and defense. Lev balances our top-4D being right handed. He also brings physicality as well as more focus on defense because he's been learning at the NCAA level.

As for DFD (defensive d-men), no one has stood out in our system.

• None of our NHL rookies (Minty, LaCombe, Luneau, and Zell) look like defensive stalwarts.

• RD Helleson hasn't done much in two AHL seasons.

• LD/RD Hinds is ahead of Helleson in his first AHL season.

• RD Warren still looks years away as he's been marred with injuries for the past two seasons.

• RD Moore had a terrible season, mostly due to incurring injuries throughout the season.

 

[GermanRocket7]

I still think Dickinson is such an Alabama name.

Sorry, I'll see myself out.

 

[HanSolo]

I think Drysdale was the last drafted player that I wanted at the spot we drafted them....The team knew better than my eye did!

2019 was a weird one cause I wanted a couple players more than Z at 9th but they all got drafted before 9th so by the time it was our turn, he was at the top of my list and I was ecstatic.

Last year I was pretty open to Leo at 2, since I was hopeful we'd draft no lower than 3 to at least get Leo as a consolation, though I did prefer Fantilli overall when we ended up at 2.

 

[Dryish]

2019 was a weird one cause I wanted a couple players more than Z at 9th but they all got drafted before 9th so by the time it was our turn, he was at the top of my list and I was ecstatic.

Really wanting Turcotte and thinking he'd be a future star was when I realised I know nothing about prospects and don't have anything real to go on by when evaluating them. Now I just try to evaluate overall big picture schemes and scheme fits.