Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Entry Draft (Ducks pick #3, They didn’t drop! OMG It’s a Miracle!)

[WhatTheDuck]

Silayev - Zellweger
Mintyukov - Luneau

 

[tomd]

Ya I could def see a lindholm type pick here…. Something that shocks everyone.

I think if levshunov is on the board and we’re picking 3-5, that’ll be our pick…. He’s been great jumping through leagues and in limited time on NA ice. He’s built well in terms of height + strength…. I think he’s pretty raw to this point, and going to take big steps next season or 2.

I tend to agree about Levshunov but he scares the cr@p out of me...he and Parekh are two of the biggest boom/bust players in the draft IMO.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I tend to agree about Levshunov but he scares the cr@p out of me...he and Parekh are two of the biggest boom/bust players in the draft IMO.

Parekh I agree,

Levshunov has physical tools to be a good defender he just needs to put it together

 

[tomd]

Parekh I agree,

Levshunov has physical tools to be a good defender he just needs to put it together

And that's what scares me...putting it together could take years if it happens at all. OTOH, Mintyukov surprised everyone and did it quickly. But again, I'll wait to see where they pick before getting too much deeper into the discussion.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I don't really understand where the seemingly commonly understood need for a D-man comes from either. We're in sore need of high end scoring talent, especially if Terry's miserable season wasn't just an odd down year.

I'd much rather draft a scoring forward than a D in a draft where no clear Hedman-level talent can be had with a top 5 pick.

For me, I looked at our production at the NHL level this year and last year as well as new found additions.

Offensively, we produced similarly this year to last year with our top-6, but this year's expanded top-6 had a myriad of injuries. The odd part is I believe it's our head coach that is stifling our top-6 scoring. Yet, our GM believes we need more bottom-6 scoring. Also, we just added LW Cutter and RW Colangelo. That means we are adding two potential top-6 forwards at the NHL level or developing at the AHL level. We can run all youths in our top-6 and the older vets as our 3rd line as proof of scoring talent depth going into next season.

Example

Cutter-Carlsson-Terry​

Zegras-Mac-Colangelo​

Vatrano-Strome-Killorn​

Recent rebuild, we have invested at forward in the top-10 of the draft four times: Zegras 9th/2019, Mac 3rd/2021, Cutter 5th/2022 via trade, and Carlsson 2nd/2023.

We currently have no top pairing D. Once Minty got put into a top-4 role, his play took a hit, both offensively and defensively. Fowler isn't a top pairing D. With Zellweger, we're trading goals and sheltering him hard with a 56.0% Ozone start.

Our best defensive d-men (DFD) are RD Gudas, RD Lindstrom, LD Vaak, and LD/RD LaCombe. Gudas cannot play top pairing minutes because he wears out and his play diminishes. Lindstrom has been sheltered playing 3rd pairing duties. Vaak finally revealed a defensive side this year as he's finally healthy, but he's a 3rd pairing LD/fringe 2nd pair LD and play mostly looks great next to Gudas. LaCombe was a rookie this past season and struggled in a top pairing role to start the season.

Recent rebuild, we have invested at defense in the top-10 of the draft once: Mintyukov 10th/2022.

That's all we have invested in the top-10 for our defensive corps. RD Luneau is a mystery due to his recent knee-infected staph infection + other ailments. RD Warren is on a scenic path. I have no idea what RD Helleson is. Rookie LD/RD Hinds' play in the last month of the season took a nosedive, going from a +1 to a -9.

No one is giving away top-4/top-pairing D-men unless your GM is blowing up the team (See Verbeek with Lindholm).

My preference is for a defensive-minded D-man if possible. Lev brings both offense and defense with an NHL body today, but I prefer he remain with MSU one more year b/c they did a great job at improving his defensive game throughout the season and I don't trust our coaching staff to develop him. Dickinson provides defense, but scouts don't believe his high output offense will translate to the NHL, which I'm okay with b/c we really need a top-4 DFD for balance.

Tier 1

C Celebrini​

Tier 2

RD Lev​

LD Dickinson​

Tier 3

Lindstrom​

Tier 4

Catton​

Helenius​

Buium​

Silayev​

Demidov​

If we're picking 5th, then I'd gamble on a Russian b/c tier 4 are all higher gambles.

=================

There was a significant improvement at defense due to three things: improved talent, more natural RD's, and defensive focus.

The defensive focus we added at the start of the season was with RD Gudas and RD Lyubushkin. Surprisingly, waiver pickup RD Lindstrom finished with the team's 2nd best +/- rating of +12, behind Gudas' +14.

This year's team had more than enough talent to absorb the injury to Drysdale early in the season and then proceeded to trade him in-season. As injuries did pile up, we had someone there to pick up the slack with LaCombe, Hagg, Lindstrom, and, later on, Zellweger.

While we did improve our defense, we were still meandering at 5v5 at 22nd overall at GA, according to Natural Stat Trick and our PK eff finished 31st against, for the 2nd year in a row. We need higher end talent to help the team take that extra step both at 5v5 and on the PK. Last time we were in the 80% PK eff was when we had Lindholm (while Manson was out on IR, I did the splits). Teams are more reluctant to let top-4D go away. The pickup of Lyubushkin and Gudas, they both were 3rd pairing guys from their previous teams. Lindstrom was a waiver pickup, meaning a fringe NHL/AHL d-man.

In this year's draft, there are two talent tiers in the top-10: Celebrini and then #2-12. If we win the lottery, there's no way we're passing up Celebrini. I think that should go without saying, tbh. After Celebrini, it comes down to preference per team. Fortunately, many scout rankings have Levshunov as their #2D. Others have him in their top-6.

If we don't win the lottery and RD Lev is there, then I'm racing to the podium for Lev and take my chances on that talented ball of clay to mold himself into a potential top-pairing D. The fact Lev was shaped so well in just one year in the NCAA is great! One more year at MSU and I wonder how big a jump he'll have?

 

[Hockey Duckie]

And that's what scares me...putting it together could take years if it happens at all. OTOH, Mintyukov surprised everyone and did it quickly. But again, I'll wait to see where they pick before getting too much deeper into the discussion.

Did Minty do it quickly? This year is Minty's D+2 season.

Minty

D-1: OHL, no season due to COVID​

D+0: OHL, 67 gp, 62 pts, and -14 rating​

D+1: OHL, 59 gp, 88 pts, and +31 rating (played for two different teams)​

D+2: NHL, 63 gp, 28 pts, and -20 rating​

Lev

D-1: USHL, 62 gp, 42 pts, and -15 rating​

D+0: NCAA, 38 gp, 35 pts, and +27 rating (2nd in scoring and 1st in +/-)​

Lev is the youngest defenseman on his NCAA team. Before the NCAA tournament, he was 1st in scoring and +/- on the team. Note, the NCAA has far older players than the CHL. The jump from USHL to NCAA is a bigger jump than going from D+0 CHL to D+1 CHL.

If Lev stays in the NCAA for this D+1 and then comes over to the NHL, then the timeline is the same as Minty's. I believe Lev's improvement trajectory is a year ahead of Minty and done at a higher threshold.

 

[DavidBL]

Parekh I agree,

Levshunov has physical tools to be a good defender he just needs to put it together

So did Sbisa

 

[KickHisAssZegrass]

Lev is intriguing but i don’t like his decision making enough to take him top 5. The more I watch the more I’m comfortable Buium is the 2nd best prospect in this draft.

 

[tomd]

Lev is intriguing but i don’t like his decision making enough to take him top 5. The more I watch the more I’m comfortable Buium is the 2nd best prospect in this draft.

If only Buium was a RHD...or Buium's brain could be attached to Levshunov's body.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

So did Sbisa

Sbisa and levshunov have very little in common

 

[nbducksfan19]

I fully trust our scouts on drafting D-Men. So, part of me hopes they pick levushov or Silayev because I think they have incredibly high upside, and I will feel some level of confidence they will hit that upside if Madden greeenlights them.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Lev is intriguing but i don’t like his decision making enough to take him top 5. The more I watch the more I’m comfortable Buium is the 2nd best prospect in this draft.

I think if you do pick Levshunov, its because you think his decision making is something he can either improve upon, or people over exaggerate(like mintyukov)

Like hockey duckie said.... he is the youngest dmen on the team, and hes still very new to North American hockey... how much of his decision making is just him still getting used to the norh american game/rinks

 

[DavidBL]

Sbisa and levshunov have very little in common

Sbisa was a player that had all the tools but never figured out how to put it together.

 

[Rasp]

We absolutely need to be taking a D in this draft as people have explained above. I think Levshunov is the guy but I wouldnt be surprised if we take Silayev.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Sbisa was a player that had all the tools but never figured out how to put it together.

He’s tiers below levshunov as a prospect

 

[DavidBL]

He’s tiers below levshunov as a prospect

Sure. But when ever I hear a prospect has all the tools and just needs to "figure" it out it worries me. Kind of like Ritchie. Not saying Levshunov will do that just a concern. Maybe not a big one but that's for the scouts to determine.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Lev is intriguing but i don’t like his decision making enough to take him top 5. The more I watch the more I’m comfortable Buium is the 2nd best prospect in this draft.

I can see the concern with Lev, but we aren't drafting who players are now, but who they can be in the future.

Zeev has been playing in NA for a while and his older brother to use as guidance. Both brothers started off with the LA Junior Kings (California) and then transferred to Minnesota to play with Shattuck St. Mary's U13/U14/U15. Younger Zeev caught the eye of the US NDTP.

Zeev
D-4: Shattuck St. Mary's U14
D-3: Shattuck St. Mary's U15
D-2: US NTDP U17/USHL
D-1: US NTDP U18/USHL
D+0: NCAA

Zeev's resume is impressive! His brother wasn't identified for the US NTDP, but Shai had developed well enough to get offered an ELC by his draft team, the Red Wings.

To add onto Shattuck St. Mary's lore, LaCombe went there too. IIRC, he didn't make his transition into a d-man until his junior year in SSM high school. RW Scott Morrow (2021/Rd 2) went to SSM. SSM knows how to develop defensemen.

Denver is a stacked team full of drafted talents. They had 12 drafted prospects on their team. Both Zeev and Shai led Denver in +/- with +33. D Buckberger +32, LW Webster + 31, RW Devine +29, and D Behrens +25. As for scoring, Zeev was 2nd with 50 points. Highest was 56 points by RW Devine. There were five players who notched 36 points or more for Denver.

Mich State had only five drafted prospects on their team. Lev led the team in +/- with +27. The next highest was his 24-year old d-pair Nienhuis with +20. That's a huge gap. Lev finished 2nd on team scoring with 35 pts, only one point behind the leader, LW Howard with 36 points. MSU had only one player with 36 pts.

Lev didn't have that defensive coaching pedigree like the Zeev since Lev was playing in Belarus three seasons ago. He went from U18 Belarus to the USHL to the NCAA. Essentially, Lev has had only two years worth of proper defensive coaching. That's why I think whoever drafts Lev will leave Lev at MSU for an extra season b/c MSU did an amazing job developing Lev.

The upside on Lev looks great b/c he converts from OFD (team Belarus and USHL) into a two-way D (NCAA) who has that physical element to his game + skating! From several reports, they all say the same thing, Lev has shown great progress and reduced his mistakes from earlier in the season.

I like the upside more with Lev. Central Scouting is on board with that thought too, as Buium is ranked two spots below Lev. Dickinson is three spots below Buium, b/c his offensive upside isn't high, but I prefer his defensive more than Buium. That's just me b/c I think the Ducks need more of a defensive bite than a scoring one, but we get both potentially in Lev. Well, that's my hope if we draft Lev.

 

[Rasp]

The only near perfect prospect is Celebrini so unless we win the lottery all of the prospects available will have some concerns.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Sure. But when ever I hear a prospect has all the tools and just needs to "figure" it out it worries me. Kind of like Ritchie. Not saying Levshunov will do that just a concern. Maybe not a big one but that's for the scouts to determine.

It all depends on what scouting you're reading from. For the longest time on here, people kept saying Lev was bad this and that. The context missing was that was his 2nd game in the NCAA. Did that person revisit Lev's play at the end of the season?

For sure, Lev is late to the defensive game, but he's made up a lot of ground in only two seasons in on NA ice.

Anyhow, here's a scouting report from The Hockey Writers, denoting defensive improvements through the season at the USHL and NCAA. Also, mentions how Lev's offense would have been celebrated more if not for Zeev's offense in the same season. You can come up to your own conclusions of Lev and see if he's another Nick Ritchie or Luca Sbisa.

Artyom Levshunov - 2024 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Artyom Levshunov is an incredibly talented offensive defenseman who should be in the conversation as a top-3 pick in the 2024 Draft.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[Trojans86]

One thing we need to factor in is that we are better at drafting d than f so odds are better when we draft a d.

 

[Rasp]

Central Scouting draft analysis:

Key Takeaways​

1. The combined number of sub-5-foot-10 prospects from both regions was halved (30 in 2023 to 15 in 2024). Conversely, the total number of prospects listed at 6-foot-4 or greater increased from 44 in 2023 to 61 in 2024 (Figure 1).
2. Centers listed between 6-foot and 6-foot-1 increased nearly doubled, from 28 in 2023 to 50 in 2024 (Figure 1).
3. Only 36 percent of European skater prospects improved from their midterm ranking compared to 46 percent for North American skaters.
4. The five defensemen among the top 11 North American skater prospects represent the most since 2012, when seven blueliners were ranked in the first 11 slots.
5. Last year’s final ranking had only three defensemen in the top 20 and nine in the top 15.
6. The 18 European goalies ranked were the most since 2006.
7. The total number from both regions of forward prospects ranked in 2024 (233 of 410, or 56.8%) is practically identical to last year’s final Central Scouting list (232 forwards of 412, or 56.3 percent).
8. Combined defensemen dropped from 33 percent in 2023 (136 of 412) to 30 percent (127 of 410). Left-handed defenders made up exactly 30 percent of the final rankings for the second year in a row. Righties dropped from 52 total in 2023 to 45 in 2024.
9. Overagers dropped slightly from 20 percent in 2023 (82 of 412) to 18 percent (72 of 410).

Lots more statistics in this link.

2024 Draft: NHL Central Scouting final rankings analysis

Go inside the numbers with another detailed breakdown of Central Scouting's final draft rankings

thedraftanalyst.substack.com

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I can see the concern with Lev, but we aren't drafting who players are now, but who they can be in the future.

This x100

I do love Zeev, but I think levshunov can be a very special player in the future

I’d be happy with either tho

 

[airforceones25]

I can see the concern with Lev, but we aren't drafting who players are now, but who they can be in the future.

This x100

I do love Zeev, but I think levshunov can be a very special player in the future

I’d be happy with either tho

This is what I don't understand... You'll put a player on your do not draft list because they're Russian because you have to wait an extra year but you'll draft a player that you have to wait a year because you think they still need to develop. It's the same sh*t.. Rather than use the stupid Russian narrative just say you dont like the player.... and no I dont care about the Fedotov situation that you'll try to bring up.. Every pick has a potential concern.. NCAA prospects dont have to sign. They can wait it out.. we experienced it first hand.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

This is what I don't understand... You'll put a player on your do not draft list because they're Russian because you have to wait an extra year but you'll draft a player that you have to wait a year because you think they still need to develop. It's the same sh*t.. Rather than use the stupid Russian narrative just say you dont like the player.... and no I dont care about the Fedotov situation that you'll try to bring up.. Every pick has a potential concern.. NCAA prospects dont have to sign. They can wait it out.. we experienced it first hand.

Didn’t even mention Demidov or saliyev….
I’ve had levshunov as #2 in draft since forever…. So for me if we’re picking anything other than 1 I have levshunov as bpa

But I havnt liked saliyev from the start, I think he’s a trap

And my take on Demidov has always been I don’t see the team/org picking a Russian in top 5…. Until proven different

 

[Gliff]

I fully trust our scouts on drafting D-Men. So, part of me hopes they pick levushov or Silayev because I think they have incredibly high upside, and I will feel some level of confidence they will hit that upside if Madden greeenlights them.

Ya if they pick a defensemen, no matter who it is, I immediately will be so hyped.

Like I don't want Parekh, but if they take him I will immediately be expecting him to round out his game into a legit top pairing guy.

This is what I don't understand... You'll put a player on your do not draft list because they're Russian because you have to wait an extra year but you'll draft a player that you have to wait a year because you think they still need to develop. It's the same sh*t.. Rather than use the stupid Russian narrative just say you dont like the player.

It isn't because you have to wait a year.

Its because they have leverage and could leave/strong arm the team. There are countless examples of this. Most recently would be Kaprizov.

Other people are afraid they wont come over even if they want to due to political reasons. I just don't think we can worry about this. It hasn't happened (guys playing for Moscow are military personnel and a completely unique situation) and I think taking reports that Putin wants to get young Russian stars to star is like taking PV at face value if he said he wants to get a #1 D this offseason. Sure it could happen. I wouldn't bet on it.

This is coming from someone that has Demidov as my #2 forward and would take him in a second.