GDT: 2024 NHL Draft (June 28 - June 29, Las Vegas Sphere)

[Langway]

Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking: An 'unpredictable ride' after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

Ten out of 10 NHL club team scouts surveyed in the past week by TSN have Macklin Celebrini as the undisputed No. 1 draft prospect. Beyond Celebrini, though? Buckle up.

www.tsn.ca

Bob's lottery top 15. Top 13 group as expected. Sennecke 14, Connelly 15.

 

[pman25]

I’m on board for MBN, Hage, Sennecke at our pick. I could see all of them being gone though.

We might even be in a position to draft a faller, don’t know who that will be this year but there’s always one or two. Could be one of the defensemen. Maybe Eiserman, maybe Catton, maybe Parekh….

 

[Langway]

Trading up for Yakemchuk/Catton/Eiserman is the play but may be tough.

VGK losing locks in the Mantha pick at 52. If they don't move up from 17 I have to think they'll look to do so from that spot.

 

[usiel]

I’m on board for MBN, Hage, Sennecke at our pick. I could see all of them being gone though.

We might even be in a position to draft a faller, don’t know who that will be this year but there’s always one or two. Could be one of the defensemen. Maybe Eiserman, maybe Catton, maybe Parekh….

For me Hage, Connelly, Sennecke, Jiricek. Probably too high but liked what I saw from Emery in the U18s. Caps are heading to a time where they won't be overcooking their D prospects or give them enough rope at the NHL level.

 

[pman25]

Jiricek concerns me. I’m skeptical of guys who are highly ranked preseason and then get injured during their draft years. Although fits the profile for the caps who picked up Hendrix and Miroshnichenko that way.

Guess I’m just not that high on Jiricek

 

[usiel]

Jiricek concerns me. I’m skeptical of guys who are highly ranked preseason and then get injured during their draft years. Although fits the profile for the caps who picked up Hendrix and Miroshnichenko that way.

Guess I’m just not that high on Jiricek

Little high on Jiricek due to the vid we do have him so a bit of sneaky pick. But yeah would be something the caps would do in the past to maximize upside.

 

[trick9]

Bob's list is kind of weird re: Jiricek. It's one of those things that never fail to amaze me. You look at a guy like Lindstrom. He was hurt for half of the season and when he came back, he was underwhelming and the injury was clearly nagging him still. It's a back injury, so in terms of future effect, it's one of the worst to have along with knee injuries but these are kids so kind of different than with 35-year olds. Despite missing basically the same exact time as Jiricek, he stays at 5.

Then you have Jiricek. He was #8 during the pre-season rankings and basically every list everywhere had him top-10. He stayed there for most of the year and some lists had him all the way up to #5. Then he gets hurt at the WJC's like his brother few years before, and Bob instantly drops him from #8 to #14 knowing he'll likely miss the rest of the season. Most lists start dropping him out of top-10 after that. Now he doesn't make the top-15 and you'd think he goes somewhere in the ~15-20. His injury was a knee-injury.

I mean... is this a North American -thing? I can see why Jiricek has dropped. Long-term injuries especially knee and back ones are bad, even at that age. Players usually drop. But what i don't get is that there seems to be some players that aren't affected by it? A while back it was Galchenyuk. He basically missed the entire year but he was playing in North America and still was picked #3.

Is this more of a thing where scouts haven't had so many looks on Jiricek as they were expecting to get those looks at WJC, U20 and later in the season? Whereas most scouts have had a lot more looks on Lindstrom who plays in the WHL with Gavin McKenna. I'd wager teams get to look at their medical files should they provide it, but scouts surely don't get that, so it's interesting to see the effect on their draft rankings with these injuries.

 

[Langway]

The difference is the progression Lindstrom showed when healthy. He flashed legit power center upside at plus size. Whereas one has to go back to really the Hlinka tournament for that from Jiricek. He didn't show it during league play against men. During the Hlinka there was still questions about his offensive upside. He's neither the toolsy offensive type like some of the other smaller D nor as big as some of the more traditional beefier options this year (or his brother). Were he healthy in the second half maybe he would have put it together but it's the difference in overall developmental arc. Lindstrom wasn't great upon his return in the playoffs but he showed enough when healthy to convince most that he's a legit top 10, if not top 5, talent. Whereas with Jiricek it's more borderline top 10 at best and even then involves some rosy projection that may not pan out. He may be more along the lines of a Fehervary/Jensen than a premier talent.

Jiricek also likely falls by virtue of how impressive Buium and Parekh have been at times. Whereas the draft isn't so stacked up front and particularly at center.

 

[trick9]

Makes sense. From the buzz around him, as guy playing as 17-year old (doesn't turn 18 before June), Jiricek was trending up before his injury, rather than down. But i do get your reasons, this is a D heavy draft, and not that many great big centers available.

Teams i'd target to move up:

#13 - Wild
* They could be starting something of a re-tool -phase. Lack of picks could make it enticing for them to move down. They do have their own 2nd rounder but they don't have a 3rd rounder. They might like adding another 2nd round picks, depending how the draft works out.

#10 - Devils
* They don't have their 2nd round pick in 2024 so it's not out of question. Also you'd think they don't want to use this pick on a D with Hughes and Nemec there already. If the forwards they like go earlier... could they move down to get that 2nd round pick back? Do they move this pick for a goalie (Markstrom?) though?

#14 - San Jose
* This is the Penguins -pick. Sharks are pretty well set on picks already but if they don't like the options available here, they could be open to moving down to pick up a 2025 2nd round pick, they have just 1 so far. But mostly this is if they lose the lottery and pick a D with their earlier pick and they don't want to pick another here and don't like the forward options available.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Connelly seems like a head case with lots of red flags, But the skills and talent is clear. At pick 17 if someone else didnt get him good chance he will be BPA. His upside is hard to dismiss

With a mid 1st rounder I would rather us shoot for a home run. Drafting a safe player like a Byod Gordon or a Eric Fher does us no good.

 

[Langway]

Bob unpacks his lottery ranking. The impression that there's a top tier of 14 plus Connelly as a wild card is backed up. Hard to say who the other two were that merited a mention but MBN, Hage, Jiricek and Greentree are all solid candidates. We'll see in the final rankings and whether Connelly doesn't slide further as the draft process plays out.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Draft lottery in about an hour who gets the franchise changing player tonight

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

ESPN draft show is pretty awful. The budget was like 2 chipotle gift cards

 

[pman25]

Celebrini to the sharks, good for them. Chicago getting Demidov now?

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

ESPN draft show is pretty awful. The budget was like 2 chipotle gift cards

But the results were great. All three top picks stay out west.

Good for the Sharks. Shitty for Celebrini’s bank account.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Mike Grier had a great season. Got rid of Karlson for Pitts 1st rounder and landed 1st overall pick. People were calling for his head a year ago.

 

[pman25]

Celebrini and Smith in SJ is real nice for them!

 

[Holtbyisms]

Jiricek is too bland of a pick for me at the 17 range. Feels like a Lujo situation. Can't find a scouting report that doesn't mention his brother and how he doesn't quite do everything as good as his brother BUT... Gotta swing for the fences outside of the lottery with this class. Offensive D is the biggest need in the organization and there's some boom or bust options there mid 1st like Mews or even Kiviharju if the injury doesn't scare you. If you're into Jiricek I'd imagine the injury doesn't since he's suffered a couple injuries.

 

[Misery74]

Did the BC kids commit officially to another year? This might entice Smith to come out.

 

[usiel]

Did the BC kids commit officially to another year? This might entice Smith to come out.

Leonard did no idea about Smith. Another year won't hurt his defense needs some work. Can't tell you how many games Leonard was covering his butt staying back high.

Happy that Sharks got the #1 pick. There are the two 1st and 2nd line centers. Not sure who will be #1 but suspect its not Smith. Watched some of the BC vs BU games (not the first one of the season) Celebrini did not jump out all that much though he scored in a few. Stick handling/hockey sense mostly. Not sure if he is legit 6 foot tall.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Did the BC kids commit officially to another year? This might entice Smith to come out.

Interesting tweet I ran across last night.

 

[Roshi]

Mike Grier had a great season. Got rid of Karlson for Pitts 1st rounder and landed 1st overall pick. People were calling for his head a year ago.

hmm.. we dont share the description of great season

- San Jose Sharks, 47 points and ranked the last of the NHL.
- Dead cap for Sharks for next 6 seasons; 5,6m - 5,6m - 2,9m - 2,9m - 1,39m - 1,39m
- will pay Martin Jones buyout for another 3 years (1,67m)
- 5 years since last time Sharks were in playoffs, and counting
- still have 15 millions tied to Vlasic and Couture for 2 years more

I dont count winning draft lottery for being the worst team in NHL for several seasons in row as a success. And I dont count having millions and millions of cap tied up to retentions and buyout for two x mid to late 1sts as a success either.

Its not obviously all on Grier, but Sharks is a complete mess and will likely stay on that path for the next few years. Even with Celebrini, Smith and all their other prospects, its going to need a lot of luck and good choices to go their way to turn that ship right.

 

[Kalopsia]

hmm.. we dont share the description of great season

- San Jose Sharks, 47 points and ranked the last of the NHL.
- Dead cap for Sharks for next 6 seasons; 5,6m - 5,6m - 2,9m - 2,9m - 1,39m - 1,39m
- will pay Martin Jones buyout for another 3 years (1,67m)
- 5 years since last time Sharks were in playoffs, and counting
- still have 15 millions tied to Vlasic and Couture for 2 years more

I dont count winning draft lottery for being the worst team in NHL for several seasons in row as a success. And I dont count having millions and millions of cap tied up to retentions and buyout for two x mid to late 1sts as a success either.

Its not obviously all on Grier, but Sharks is a complete mess and will likely stay on that path for the next few years. Even with Celebrini, Smith and all their other prospects, its going to need a lot of luck and good choices to go their way to turn that ship right.

Everyone knew when Grier took over that team that they'd need a long rebuild after mortgaging their future and signing a lot of bad contracts trying to keep the window open. Since Grier's been there they've gone from the #14 prospect pool to #4, they're about to add another massively talented center prospect with Celebrini, and they've got an extra 1st and 2nd this year and an extra 1st next year. Two years from now their last bad contracts will be up, their dead cap will be down to around 4M and their prospect pool should be about the best in the NHL. Grier's done about as well with that rebuild as anyone could've expected.

 

[Kazer]

hmm.. we dont share the description of great season

- San Jose Sharks, 47 points and ranked the last of the NHL.
- Dead cap for Sharks for next 6 seasons; 5,6m - 5,6m - 2,9m - 2,9m - 1,39m - 1,39m
- will pay Martin Jones buyout for another 3 years (1,67m)
- 5 years since last time Sharks were in playoffs, and counting
- still have 15 millions tied to Vlasic and Couture for 2 years more

I dont count winning draft lottery for being the worst team in NHL for several seasons in row as a success. And I dont count having millions and millions of cap tied up to retentions and buyout for two x mid to late 1sts as a success either.

Its not obviously all on Grier, but Sharks is a complete mess and will likely stay on that path for the next few years. Even with Celebrini, Smith and all their other prospects, its going to need a lot of luck and good choices to go their way to turn that ship right.

You got there in the end. Almost every mistake you outlined is on Wilson, not Grier.

Poor drafting prior to 2022? Wilson
Dead cap? Wilson (Grier had to take on cap to move out guys like EK, Burns, and Hertl and the cap hit will be negligible to gone by the time they are good again)
Martin Jones? Signed by Wilson AND bought out by Doug Wilson
5 year since playoffs? Only the last two are on Grier
15 Mil tied to Vlasic and Couture? Who do you think negotiated those deals?

I agree it will take a long time but don't bury the lede. Grier inherited a borderline worst case situation - few high-end NHL assets along with a bad cap situation and basically no prospects. 8 of San Jose's top prospects were brought in by Grier, and they have the #1 and #14 (Penguins) picks in the 2024 draft which will supplement that further plus two firsts in 2025 (and their own 1st will almost assuredly be top 5 again).

Time will tell but Grier has stripped the franchise bare, a la Washington in 2003-04, and it has completely revamped their prospect pool and accelerated their rebuild timeline. He also took them from a horrendous cap situation to having lots of space.

 

[Roshi]

You got there in the end. Almost every mistake you outlined is on Wilson, not Grier.

Poor drafting prior to 2022? Wilson
Dead cap? Wilson (Grier had to take on cap to move out guys like EK, Burns, and Hertl and the cap hit will be negligible to gone by the time they are good again)
Martin Jones? Signed by Wilson AND bought out by Doug Wilson
5 year since playoffs? Only the last two are on Grier
15 Mil tied to Vlasic and Couture? Who do you think negotiated those deals?

I agree it will take a long time but don't bury the lede. Grier inherited a borderline worst case situation - few high-end NHL assets along with a bad cap situation and basically no prospects. 8 of San Jose's top prospects were brought in by Grier, and they have the #1 and #14 (Penguins) picks in the 2024 draft which will supplement that further plus two firsts in 2025 (and their own 1st will almost assuredly be top 5 again).

Time will tell but Grier has stripped the franchise bare, a la Washington in 2003-04, and it has completely revamped their prospect pool and accelerated their rebuild timeline. He also took them from a horrendous cap situation to having lots of space.

Sure, and i wasnt calling Grier out. Just saying that my idea of great season is not ending up last in the league and eating cap as much as possible.

No matter who did it, i hope Caps wont go through this kind of complete mess. All it takes is Celebrini to get injured or wanting out from there in 3 years and they got nowhere for sucking hard for 5 years.

Edit. Whenever i see our fanbase dreaming of a big messy rebuild… i dont think about Kane/Toews/Keith Hawks, or Crosby/Malkin/Fleury Pens. I look at Sabres.

Its been 13 years since Sabres last time played a playoff-game. Since that they’ve had;

18 x 1st round pick
18 x 2nd round pick
+ all the other picks

With
2 x 1st overall (Dahlin, Power)
2 x 2nd overall (Eichel, Reinhart)
6 x another top10 pick

And they still dont look like a real thread in the weak East.

Im 40 years old. I dont want to risk missing out 10+ years meaningful hockey.