Buffalo Bills Post-Draft Discussion

[Husko]

Please vote in our final poll!

2024 HF Bills Big Board 38

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

forms.gle

As for the WR of it all, I'm still at:

First round guys after the big 3: BTJ, McConkey, Mitchell (if the character stuff checks out)

If none of them are on the board, I'd say trade back or take a blue chip player at another position. Obviously if the Bills have someone else in that tier as well, so be it. But if those guys are all gone, I'm fine with punting to someone in the second which I see as a massive third tier.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Ok it’s time for me to finally ask: what in the world is a live message board thread?

Something which doesn't work well on mobile (android/chrome at least).

Player	Off Snaps	Targets
Davis	966	81
Diggs	949	160
Kincaid	699	91
Shakir	604	45
Knox	487	36
Sherfield	392	22
Morris	185	3
Harty	155	21
Isabella	2	0
Total	4439	459

Samuel played around 600 snaps last season. He has topped 800 snaps in 2 out of 7 seasons.

And even with adding in the TEs, they lost a ton of WR/TE snaps (55%) and targets (62%). It is not going to be made up by adding Samuel and giving Shakir and Kincaid larger roles. And expecting injuries to not happen isn't a smart plan, either.

I'm not expecting a big, early double dip at WR. But, I think there is a chance it could happen especially if they target a guy like Worthy who could be more of a role guy as a rookie.

You have lost circa 2,450 with the offseason departures.

Kincaid plays a ton next year IMO. Probably another 200-300.

Knox plays another 200-300 just if he's healthy.

Shakir plays another 200-300 too.

One of those seasons Samuel topped 800 was under Brady. He's tended to play less only because of injury. I think he'll play much nearer 800 than 600.

Hollins plays some - purely on what he brings in the run game / blocking for others. Let's say 200-300. Neither BTJ or Worthy can replace this.

Since there's a glaring need for a guy to replace Davis - let's assume our rookie/s get at least 700-800.

Even at the most conservative end of the scale, we've replaced 2,100 of those lost snaps. At the other end of the scale we have filled them all comfortably with more to spare.

This doesn't even account for guys like Shorter, Isabella or Hamler getting more of a look, doesn't really account for them playing more run with Brady than with Dorsey either, i could go on.

The only valid point i think you make is injuries - but you don't make early picks on the basis of someone else getting hurt.

You also have to think that even if there were extra snaps available because of injury - it would be hard to fit in 2 guys who stylistically fit a similar role. EG Kincaid didn't suddenly turn into an elite in line blocker when Knox went down last year.

If they take two WRs early - the second guy is simply going to cannibalise snaps, development & opportunity from the first guy. Or vice versa.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Anyone have Joe B's last Bills mock btw ?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Something which doesn't work well on mobile (android/chrome at least).


You have lost circa 2,450 with the offseason departures.

Kincaid plays a ton next year IMO. Probably another 200-300.

Knox plays another 200-300 just if he's healthy.

Shakir plays another 200-300 too.

One of those seasons Samuel topped 800 was under Brady. He's tended to play less only because of injury. I think he'll play much nearer 800 than 600.

Hollins plays some - purely on what he brings in the run game / blocking for others. Let's say 200-300. Neither BTJ or Worthy can replace this.

Since there's a glaring need for a guy to replace Davis - let's assume our rookie/s get at least 700-800.

Even at the most conservative end of the scale, we've replaced 2,100 of those lost snaps. At the other end of the scale we have filled them all comfortably with more to spare.

This doesn't even account for guys like Shorter, Isabella or Hamler getting more of a look, doesn't really account for them playing more run with Brady than with Dorsey either, i could go on.

The only valid point i think you make is injuries - but you don't make early picks on the basis of someone else getting hurt.

You also have to think that even if there were extra snaps available because of injury - it would be hard to fit in 2 guys who stylistically fit a similar role. EG Kincaid didn't suddenly turn into an elite in line blocker when Knox went down last year.

If they take two WRs early - the second guy is simply going to cannibalise snaps, development & opportunity from the first guy. Or vice versa.

On the bolded, maybe and maybe not. Let's say Beane trades down, takes Legette in round 2 then Rice in round 4. I think Rice would be put on something like the Shorter plan. Take a development year and improve separation skills.

If Beane went McConkey round 1 and Walker in round 2, then what you've written is far more or a possibility.

So, the summary is it depends on who the receivers are and where they take them.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Think it's gonna be BTJ / McConkey if we stay put

I'd guess AD Mitchell isn't even on Beane's board.

Do think there is a possibility of a trade up with ATL for Nabers/Odunze

 

[truthbluth]

Anybody got a Vontae Mack conviction?

 

[Jim Bob]

Something which doesn't work well on mobile (android/chrome at least).


You have lost circa 2,450 with the offseason departures.

Kincaid plays a ton next year IMO. Probably another 200-300.

Knox plays another 200-300 just if he's healthy.

Shakir plays another 200-300 too.

One of those seasons Samuel topped 800 was under Brady. He's tended to play less only because of injury. I think he'll play much nearer 800 than 600.

Hollins plays some - purely on what he brings in the run game / blocking for others. Let's say 200-300. Neither BTJ or Worthy can replace this.

Since there's a glaring need for a guy to replace Davis - let's assume our rookie/s get at least 700-800.

Even at the most conservative end of the scale, we've replaced 2,100 of those lost snaps. At the other end of the scale we have filled them all comfortably with more to spare.

This doesn't even account for guys like Shorter, Isabella or Hamler getting more of a look, doesn't really account for them playing more run with Brady than with Dorsey either, i could go on.

The only valid point i think you make is injuries - but you don't make early picks on the basis of someone else getting hurt.

You also have to think that even if there were extra snaps available because of injury - it would be hard to fit in 2 guys who stylistically fit a similar role. EG Kincaid didn't suddenly turn into an elite in line blocker when Knox went down last year.

If they take two WRs early - the second guy is simply going to cannibalise snaps, development & opportunity from the first guy. Or vice versa.

They could look to spread things around like GB has done.

Brady and Beane are going to evolve the offense. That could mean they attack WR is a few different ways in the draft and remainder of the off season.

I wouldn't put anything past them right now.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

On the bolded, maybe and maybe not. Let's say Beane trades down, takes Legette in round 2 then Rice in round 4. I think Rice would be put on something like the Shorter plan. Take a development year and improve separation skills.

If Beane went McConkey round 1 and Walker in round 2, then what you've written is far more or a possibility.

So, the summary is it depends on who the receivers are and where they take them.

Right. But i wouldn't consider taking a day 3 developmental guy like Rice as an early pick.

My arguement isn't about taking two receivers. It's against taking two with the first two picks...

 

[Zman5778]

My arguement isn't about taking two receivers. It's against taking two with the first two picks...

In general, I agree that we shouldn't take 2 WRs with our first 2 picks.

But let's say we trade up to get BTJ.....and then somehow Worthy slips to 60 (or close enough to 60 to make a minor trade up)......I don't see how we could turn that down. Could lock up our future 1/2 punch real fast.

Again -- there are few specific scenarios where I'd be OK with it. Just a few.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

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They could look to spread things around like GB has done.

Brady and Beane are going to evolve the offense. That could mean they attack WR is a few different ways in the draft and remainder of the off season.

I wouldn't put anything past them right now.

GB is a terrible comparison to make.

We have a franchise QB in his prime & are considered a contender. We already have:

Kincaid (recent R1 pick)
Knox (big money contract)
Shakir (emerging star)
Samuel (the teams biggest FA acquisition)

Going into last season GB had none of this & were considered a team who was not yet ready to compete with essentially a rookie QB. Their guys are a bunch of day 2 / day 3 picks too - not one of them was a R1 pick.

 

[billsandsabres]

Anyone have Joe B's last Bills mock btw ?

Hard to paste in due to formatting, but here it us:

1 Bears - Williams
2 Commanders - Daniels
3 Patriots - Maye
4 Cards - MHJ
5 Vikes (via Chargers) - McCarthy
6 Giants - Nabers
7 Titans - Alt
8 Jets (via Falcons) - Odunze
9 Eagles (via Bears)- Q Mitchell
10 Falcons (via Jets) - Turner
11 Chargers (via Vikes) - Fautanu
12 Broncos - Latu
13 Raiders - Fashanu
14 Rams (via Saints) - BTJ
15 Colts - Bowers
16 Seahawks - Murphy II
17 Jags - Arnold
18 Bengals - Latham
19 Saints (via Chargers) - Fuaga
20 Steelers - Barton
21 Fish - Verse
22 Bears (via Eagles) - Mims
23 Chargers (via Vikes) - DeJean
24 Panthers (via Cowboys) - McConkey
25 Bills (via Packers: 28, 128, 200 for 25 and 219) - A Mitchell
26 Bucs - JPJ
27 Cards - Chop
28 Packers (via Bills) - Guyton
29 Raiders (via Lions) - Penix Jr
30 Ravens - Wiggins
31 Niners - Morgan
32 Chiefs - Suamataia

Bills trade 60, 133 to Cards for 71, 90.

71 Bills - Orhorhoro
90 Bills - Kinchens
144 Bills - Cowing
160 Bills - Limmer
163 Bills - Devonshire
204 Bills - I Davis
219 Bills - M Barrett Jr

 

[Rowley Birkin]

In general, I agree that we shouldn't take 2 WRs with our first 2 picks.

But let's say we trade up to get BTJ.....and then somehow Worthy slips to 60 (or close enough to 60 to make a minor trade up)......I don't see how we could turn that down. Could lock up our future 1/2 punch real fast.

Again -- there are few specific scenarios where I'd be OK with it. Just a few.

In this scenario i'd call Worthy a bad pick because they are never made in a vacuum.

Anointing them a 1/2 punch for years to come is a real stretch. There is absolutely no guarantee that either guy would be better than anyone we already had. We'd simply have two boom/bust players who would end up playing a very similar role in the offence even if they both worked out.

 

[Jim Bob]

GB is a terrible comparison to make.

We have a franchise QB in his prime & are considered a contender. We already have:

Kincaid (recent R1 pick)
Knox (big money contract)
Shakir (emerging star)
Samuel (the teams biggest FA acquisition)

Going into last season GB had none of this & were considered a team who was not yet ready to compete with essentially a rookie QB. Their guys are a bunch of day 2 / day 3 picks too - not one of them was a R1 pick.

I think you overstating the impact on the passing game of Knox, Shakir, and Samuel.

And even if the Bills were to take a WR in the 1st and 2nd round, they are still going to be rookies and unlikely to be 150+ target guys in 2024.

 

[Selanne00008]

Ya know, regarding AD Mitchell and not going hard.

Was watching the post game intevriew Kings Vs. Oilers last night with Drew Doughty. He so matter of factly answered a question about if he ever got tired by saying he only goes 100% every 5th shift or so.

Maybe AD is just wise beyond his years. You go 70-85% most of the time and when it's your time, you smoke 'em and they are caught on their heels.

 

[Zman5778]

Ya know, regarding AD Mitchell and not going hard.

Was watching the post game intevriew Kings Vs. Oilers last night with Drew Doughty. He so matter of factly answered a question about if he ever got tired by saying he only goes 100% every 5th shift or so.

Maybe AD is just wise beyond his years. You go 70-85% most of the time and when it's your time, you smoke 'em and they are caught on their heels.

Watch any legit #1 WR in the NFL. Every single one of them goes half speed for a handful of plays per game.

 

[Selanne00008]

Watch any legit #1 WR in the NFL. Every single one of them goes half speed for a handful of plays per game.

Agreed. I'm not super worried about that quote from AD if he ends up the guy.

I also wouldn't mind a stab at a guy like Worthy (not round 1). He has dropsies? Get him top shelf NFL gloves and work the machine all summer. Practice the over the head catching a tenis ball non stop. He will be fine most likely.

 

[Jim Bob]

Agreed. I'm not super worried about that quote from AD if he ends up the guy.

I also wouldn't mind a stab at a guy like Worthy (not round 1). He has dropsies? Get him top shelf NFL gloves and work the machine all summer. Practice the over the head catching a tenis ball non stop. He will be fine most likely.

Worthy is the WR that I have been afraid to fall in love with during this draft process.

But, the fact that he had 100+ targets each of the last three seasons at Texas has me to the point of being really excited if he is the pick.

 

[Reddawg]

Anybody got a Vontae Mack conviction?

If we take a LB in the first round I'm going to be pretty fussy about it.

 

[truthbluth]

If we take a LB in the first round I'm going to be pretty fussy about it.

Lol.
No Linebacker.
No matter what.

 

[HaNotsri]

For noobs, when will they start picking? According to google 3.5 hours ago...

 

[truthbluth]

For noobs, when will they start picking? According to google 3.5 hours ago...

Draft starts around 8pm ET. In 4 1/2 hours. Bills will probably pick around 11? So, in 7 1/2 hours.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

For noobs, when will they start picking? According to google 3.5 hours ago...

8pm EST from what I've seen

 

[truthbluth]

Man, my internal Ladd McConkey hype is growing. Seems like a BBB guy. He's 7-11 man. Or We Never Close for the Elmwood OGs. Just exactly what the Josh uses. Don't need a #1 if everybody is open all the time. I don't know when I got here, maybe it's the holistic draft research/team building experience culminating in one emergent thought:
who gets open more than anybody else?

 

[Husko]

Man, my internal Ladd McConkey hype is growing. Seems like a BBB guy. He's 7-11 man. Or We Never Close for the Elmwood OGs. Just exactly what the Josh uses. Don't need a #1 if everybody is open all the time. I don't know when I got here, maybe it's the holistic draft research/team building experience culminating in one emergent thought:
who gets open more than anybody else?

Yup I love McConkey. My favorite realistic option by a bit

 

[KeyserSoze81]

Man, my internal Ladd McConkey hype is growing. Seems like a BBB guy. He's 7-11 man. Or We Never Close for the Elmwood OGs. Just exactly what the Josh uses. Don't need a #1 if everybody is open all the time. I don't know when I got here, maybe it's the holistic draft research/team building experience culminating in one emergent thought:
who gets open more than anybody else?

Everything I have read has me right there with you. He has sustained success and seems to be very close in style to Diggs. He is a great route runner all over the field and is a good separator. He has the potential to be an immediate contributor in this offense.