Prospect Info: 2023 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #14

[Nubmer6]

Results:

Rank	Player	Draft Position	Vote %	2022 Result	2021 Result
1	Luke Hughes	2021 Round 1 #4 Overall	89.1	Luke Hughes	Luke Hughes
2	Simon Nemec	2022 Round 1 #2 Overall	92.5	Simon Nemec	Dawson Mercer
3	Alexander Holtz	2020 Round 1 #7 Overall	39.1	Alexander Holtz	Alexander Holtz
4	Akira Schmid	2018 Round 5 #136 Overall	43.8	Arseni Gritsyuk	Nolan Foote
5	Seamus Casey	2022 Round 2 #46 Overall	57.6	Shakir Mukhamadullin	Shakir Mukhamadullin
6	Arseni Gritsyuk	2019 Round 5 #129 Overall	86.9	Fabian Zetterlund	Kevin Bahl
7	Lenni Hameenaho	2023 Round 2 #58 Overall	55.3	Nikita Okhotiuk	Graeme Clarke
8	Topias Vilen	2021 Round 5 #129 Overall	48.9	Seamus Casey	Chase Stillman
9	Nolan Foote	2019 Round 1 #27 Overall	46.3	Nico Daws	Nikita Okhotiuk
10	Josh Filmon	2022 Round 6 #166 Overall	43.0	Tyce Thompson	Samu Salminen
11	Graeme Clarke	2018 Round 3 #80 Overall	37.3	Nolan Foote	Michael Vukojevic
12	Zakhar Bardakov	2021 Round 7 #203 Overall	52.1	Tyler Brennan	Jaromir Pytlik
13	Nico Daws	2021 Round 7 #203 Overall	35.8	Chase Stillman	Tyce Thompson

Last Pick: Nico Daws - Utica Comets / AHL

Added: Peter Hauser

Eligible Players:

Shane Bowers Cole Brady Cole Brown Chase Cheslock Brian Halonen Santeri Hatakka Viktor Hurtig Charlie Leddy

Nikita Popugayev Jaromir Pytlik Samu Salminen Artem Shlaine Tyce Thompson Michael Vukojevic Yegor Zaitsev

Selected: Zakhar Bardakov Seamus Casey Graeme Clarke Nico Daws Josh Filmon Nolan Foote Arseni Gritsyuk Lenni Hameenaho Alexander Holtz Luke Hughes Simon Nemec Akira Schmid Topias Vilen

In Poll: Artem Barabosha Tyler Brennan Ethan Edwards Peter Hauser Daniil Karpovich Jakub Malek Daniil Misyul Daniil Orlov Cam Squires Chase Stillman

As usual, after selecting a player, request a player to be added to the next poll.

Click to read more...

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

add Shlaine

 

[forceten]

Going Orlov again here. Add Shlaine.

 

[Blackjack]

Karpovich add Hatakka

 

[Guadana]

Its hard to pick between Karpovich and Orlov. I give an edge to Orlov because of better positional game, better timings and he is more proven on better levels.
Add Charlie Leddy

And pick Karpovich here. Because he is a way better prospect than Stillman.

 

[My3Sons]

Its hard to pick between Karpovich and Orlov. I give an edge to Orlov because of better positional game, better timings and he is more proven on better levels.
Add Charlie Leddy

While I defer to your prospect analysis, I have at least watched Malek a bit and so can begin to form my own opinion. I don't doubt next season when you post more shift by shift videos I'll have a better feel for these prospects. It was your video work for Gritsyuk and Bardhakov that sold me on them.

 

[RememberTheName]

I have missed the last couple of these polls because I have been a bit busy. I apologize. My #12 prospect is Jakub Malek. He wasn't even in the #12 poll, so that was an interesting tid bit. I don't really know how Tyler Brennan was in the poll and not Malek. Brennan hasn't showed much of anything so far.

My #13 prospect is Nolan Foote. He was already voted in a while back.

My #14 prospect is Daniil Orlov, but I am voting for Jakub Malek. However, if it is still close by the time the poll is almost up, I might switch the vote to Orlov to try to push him over the edge.

My current rankings:
1. Luke Hughes
2. Simon Nemec
3. Akira Schmid
4. Seamus Casey
5. Alex Holtz
6. Arseni Gritsyuk
7. Lenni Hameenaho
8. Josh Filmon
9. Nico Daws
10. Zakhar Bardakov
11. Topias Vilen
12. Jakub Malek
13. Nolan Foote
14. Daniil Orlov

EDIT: Forgot to put my add. Add Cheslock.

 

[Nubmer6]

I have missed the last couple of these polls because I have been a bit busy. I apologize.

You will be punished by having to vote twice in each subsequent poll.

 

[Guadana]

While I defer to your prospect analysis, I have at least watched Malek a bit and so can begin to form my own opinion. I don't doubt next season when you post more shift by shift videos I'll have a better feel for these prospects. It was your video work for Gritsyuk and Bardhakov that sold me on them.

I have no issues with Malek. I didnt watched him, I cant evaluate goalie prospects, goalies are really hard to evaluate on my taste overall. Like I said before the difference in 0.5% is huge - 90% goalie is replacable backup, 90.5% goalie is pretty good backup and 91% is a solid starter. 92% goalie is a face of franchise level player. And 0.5% is a very small difference, but effect hugely. I just cant predict it. Goalies translate their game very differently. I can understand if goalie was top-3 or top-5 on every level every year he played. And even than I cant understand how to compare really.
So as a man who doesnt understand, Im not making any estimation on them. Im not telling they are good or bad or okay or they will be good or that is a flash or any other mark. Reason why Im separating goalies from defensemen and forwards. If you are telling that Malek has huge chance to be solid backup or even nhl starter, I easily will put him in top-10 over guys like Bardakov, Foote, Filmon etc. If he has a chance to be starter, than he should be top-5 in our rankings. I just dont know how recognize it.

 

[My3Sons]

I have no issues with Malek. I didnt watched him, I cant evaluate goalie prospects, goalies are really hard to evaluate on my taste overall. Like I said before the difference in 0.5% is huge - 90% goalie is replacable backup, 90.5% goalie is pretty good backup and 91% is a solid starter. 92% goalie is a face of franchise level player. And 0.5% is a very small difference, but effect hugely. I just cant predict it. Goalies translate their game very differently. I can understand if goalie was top-3 or top-5 on every level every year he played. And even than I cant understand how to compare really.
So as a man who doesnt understand, Im not making any estimation on them. Im not telling they are good or bad or okay or they will be good or that is a flash or any other mark. Reason why Im separating goalies from defensemen and forwards. If you are telling that Malek has huge chance to be solid backup or even nhl starter, I easily will put him in top-10 over guys like Bardakov, Foote, Filmon etc. If he has a chance to be starter, than he should be top-5 in our rankings. I just dont know how recognize it.

I agree it's really tough with goalies. I am not saying Malek impresses me more than Orlov or Karpovich. Right now I just have no frame of reference for them other than what you've told me. I'm excited to learn more about their games this season as the NJ prospect pool starts to turn over. Maybe Nemec hangs around one more season as a prospect. It will be fun to see how the KHL kids and Karpovich grow their games.

 

[Guadana]

I agree it's really tough with goalies. I am not saying Malek impresses me more than Orlov or Karpovich. Right now I just have no frame of reference for them other than what you've told me. I'm excited to learn more about their games this season as the NJ prospect pool starts to turn over. Maybe Nemec hangs around one more season as a prospect. It will be fun to see how the KHL kids and Karpovich grow their games.

I think I'm doing a good job of identifying the strengths and weaknesses of young hockey players and their possible development and problems. So its better to have at least my words than points per game on eliteprospects only. Yeah, I know its not working as argument for everybody even if it worked as pre-fact many times before. As a modest and understanding person, I take this into account, so I politely poke the nose of people who are not aware of the question. Guadanas reverence. (although I'm joking about this, but in fact I need to reconsider this point. As a result, this is a "game" around just an estimated opinion and it's not worth it)
By the way, Bardakov may have been injured again today.

May be we should rank Schmid over Hughes and Nemec. He has good track record, his trajectory is great and if he will be regular 92%+ goalie, he is more important for this team

 

[Beastdog75]

Voted for Stillman, add Thompson

 

[My3Sons]

I think I'm doing a good job of identifying the strengths and weaknesses of young hockey players and their possible development and problems. So its better to have at least my words than points per game on eliteprospects only. Yeah, I know its not working as argument for everybody even if it worked as pre-fact many times before. As a modest and understanding person, I take this into account, so I politely poke the nose of people who are not aware of the question. Guadanas reverence. (although I'm joking about this, but in fact I need to reconsider this point. As a result, this is a "game" around just an estimated opinion and it's not worth it)
By the way, Bardakov may have been injured again today.

May be we should rank Schmid over Hughes and Nemec. He has good track record, his trajectory is great and if he will be regular 92%+ goalie, he is more important for this team

Prospect evaluation is based in part on what you prefer in a player. Some fans just want skill skill skill and hope a player can figure the rest out. They don’t care if there are potential red flags. You and @StevenToddIves look for well rounded talents and look for a player who can contribute in the multiple ways NHL teams actually need. That evaluation aligns wjth what I’d look for if I had the time to look at prospects for myself. So I trust you guys when you offer opinions on players but my hang up is to want to see some video at a minimum to arrive at my concrete thoughts. I understand stat watchers and stats have their place but they are one piece of a bigger puzzle.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Prospect evaluation is based in part on what you prefer in a player. Some fans just want skill skill skill and hope a player can figure the rest out. They don’t care if there are potential red flags. You and @StevenToddIves look for well rounded talents and look for a player who can contribute in the multiple ways NHL teams actually need. That evaluation aligns wjth what I’d look for if I had the time to look at prospects for myself. So I trust you guys when you offer opinions on players but my hang up is to want to see some video at a minimum to arrive at my concrete thoughts. I understand stat watchers and stats have their place but they are one piece of a bigger puzzle.

All *respectable* draft evaluators -- from the big guys like Corey Pronman and Cam Robinson to the HFBoards Devils guys like @Guadana and (formerly, haha) myself incorporate all facets into an analysis of a prospect.

This is to say, of course we pay attention to the stats! But we incorporate them into a greater picture and use context to determine their value. I don't think you'll see any of us ranking a draft-eligible forward in our top 32 overall if he scored 37 points in 70 CHL games regardless of his skill set, and of course we're paying extra attention to a CHL forward who scored 95 points in 70 CHL games even if he's small or slow or has visible weaknesses or whatever.

But a defenseman whose coaches utilize in a shut-down role who doesn't score a ton of points? Obviously the stat sheet means less in this case. Even for forwards -- you'll recall my high ranking of Owen Beck -- who already goes far higher than the early 2nd round in a 2022 re-draft -- who was singularly maligned by people who didn't watch because of modest point totals. But as someone who watched a ton of Mississauga games, this was easily explainable to me in the sense that Beck was used as the team's 2nd line C behind Luca Del Bel Belluz, deployed primarily as a shut-down guy, and rarely got minutes on the top PP or with the team's top scoring wingers. CONTEXT let us know that Beck -- an elite skater with great skill and a high hockey IQ/compete -- was better than the sum of his goals and assists.

This is why the worst draft/prospect evaluators -- and I don't even think we should give the benefit of "evaluators" to less intelligent people like Byron Bader and JFresh, but rather simply call them "rankers" -- always lag behind us and fail at their attempts to grade hockey prospects. Because, while the rest of us are incorporating stats as a piece of the larger picture, myopic stat-heads are using one of our many available tools to singularly rank the prospects. I could give a thousand examples, but suffice to say using one tool out of dozens is simply not enough.

As for @Guadana and myself, when we are pumping up a prospect we quite often encourage you folks to watch them yourselves. Because, don't take our word for everything -- watch these kids and make up your own minds!

Cam Robinson and @Guadana are always providing video with their evaluations on Twitter (can I still call it Twitter?) to encourage fans to watch the prospects with their own eyes and make their own observations. The Baders and JFreshes of the world just post "player cards" with nonsensical numbers on them as if to say "we have all the answers, don't bother watching this guy, he'll never be good because we said so".

Ultimately, you are 100% correct in your observation of stats as a piece of a larger, more complex puzzle. And while no prospect evaluator will be 100% correct, the ones who use more of the observational tools at their disposal will be far closer to that mark than the ones who don't. It's really that simple.

 

[Devs3cups]

All *respectable* draft evaluators -- from the big guys like Corey Pronman and Cam Robinson to the HFBoards Devils guys like @Guadana and (formerly, haha) myself incorporate all facets into an analysis of a prospect.

Always glad to see you pop up in these threads Steven!

 

[forceten]

Stillman may sneak in here, but he's only here because Orlov and Karpovich are splitting the 25 votes they have between them. I think likely (and for me surely) they're both ahead of him.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Stillman may sneak in here, but he's only here because Orlov and Karpovich are splitting the 25 votes they have between them. I think likely (and for me surely) they're both ahead of him.

also interesting that the total votes drop off at some point, which probably happened earlier in the ranking but i didn’t realize til this poll. I’m sure it’s partly due to lack of familiarity with these later prospects.

 

[DevilsHughes86]

Voted Stillman, I didn't completely give up on him yet, saw some nice things from him during the Memorial Cup tournament.