Speculation: 2021 Sharks Offseason Roster Discussion part V

[Hodge]

I was under the impression that ELC slides don't count toward the 50 (Robins, Weisblatt, and Gushchin).

Technically they count as of this very moment but as soon as those three and Raska are assigned to their CHL teams we're back down to 46 contracts (including Gregor).

 

[Nolan11]

Technically they count as of this very moment but as soon as those three and Raska are assigned to their CHL teams we're back down to 46 contracts (including Gregor).

Oh, that makes a lot of sense. Maybe we are waiting for that to sign Gregor just in case someone waives an interesting player (keeping one slot open until the kids go back down). Thank you.

 

[STL Shark]

Oh, that makes a lot of sense. Maybe we are waiting for that to sign Gregor just in case someone waives an interesting player (keeping one slot open until the kids go back down). Thank you.

No one is going to go on waivers until camp begins and the first round of cuts are made. By that point, youngsters are going to be re-assigned to juniors anyway. This is mostly just seeing if there are any pick for player deals out there potentially I would imagine with respect to Gregor. Any larger deals would likely involve a couple of contract players going out the door as well so likely not a huge issue at this point as long as that one slot is open.

 

[LadyStanley]

Unconfirmed report eichel traded to Montreal.

None of the big names reporting anything

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

As a long-time lurker here, many of these discussions on the Sharks future depend on what you think of Doug Wilson as a GM. I would like to give an assessment of Wilson as a GM looking across the close to two decades he has been GM. This will be a series of posts. (If the mods wants to move this to another thread just about Wilson as GM, that's fine with me. This thread just seemed like the best place to put this.)

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

First, the record. Wilson's teams had made the playoffs almost every season. But how have they done there?
Breaking down series record by round:
1st Round: 10-4
2nd Round: 5-5
3rd and 4th Round: 1-5
Wilson builds teams much like the Chicago teams he played on the 1980s: very good, not great. When those teams advanced out of the Norris division playoffs, they ran into the buzzsaw of the Gretzky-era Oilers that chewed them up.
Similarly, when the Wilson era Sharks made the Conference Finals, they too got chewed up

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Second, Trader Doug. If Wilson was in finance, he would be known as a specialist in distressed assets. Anytime a star player is likely to be moved by his team (most often because of upcoming UFA status), Wilson is all over it. Here is a list of the players Wilson has acquired through such trades:

Joe Thornton
Bill Guerin
Brian Campbell (at this point, Wilson realized that trading for players about to become UFAs was a bad idea because they go to market rather than signing)
Dan Boyle
Dany Heatley
Brent Burns
Evander Kane
Erik Karlsson

This is Wilson's go-to move for improving his team.
In these trades, Wilson traded away 9 first round picks over 14 seasons (including Coyle and Norris as first round picks traded away because the team still considered them prospects when they traded them and including the first round pick in the Jones trade).
For over a decade, Wilson has been trading the future for the present. In the short run, this has worked; Wilson kept the Sharks as a solid playoff team for years after the common wisdom was that he should rebuild the team because of the decline of Thornton and Marleau; in 2016 and 2019, this team tipped into Cup contender status.
The problem is that trading the future for the present eventually catches up to you as it has with the Sharks. The lack of first and second round picks traded away for short term gain leads to an organization that lacks players that could step up into more responsible roles.
Wilson has also failed in his trades to acquire players who could fill into the middle six over time. Here is a list of the players he has traded for in the hope that they would fill in such roles (not deadline deals, deals made during the summer or beginning of the season):
Ryan Donato
Tye McGinn
Mike Brown
Tyler Kennedy
Brad Stuart
James Sheppard
None of those deals produced a solid middle-six player over time.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Third: Dougie at the Draft
First, the good. The Sharks have done well at finding NHL players in the late rounds over the last two decades. If Edmonton had done this well with late round picks, they would be a Cup contender.
Second, the bad. Wilson repeatedly traded up in the first round for picks, and the record of those picks is bad:
2005: Setoguchi
2006: Wishart
2007: Couture
2007: Petricki
2013: Mueller
When you trade up for a specific player, you better be right about that player. In retrospect, the Sharks' judgment about these players was almost always wrong. To his credit, Wilson stopped doing this after 2013.
It is hard to judge how well the organization scouts because it has had so few late first picks and second round picks.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Summary: Doug Wilson is not a bad GM; I would put him in the top third of NHL GMs. But his trades of the future for the present over the last decade have crippled the team. They have the third worst goal differential in both 19-20 and 20-21. Looking at the roster, they have four top six-forwards, none that are superstars. They have three all-star defensemen, all in noticeable decline. Of their top skaters, one is in his early 20s where one can anticipate improvement (Ferraro), three are in their mid to upper 20s (Hertl, Meier, LaBanc), and the other four are in their 30s where decline is likely (Kane, Karlson, Burns, Vlasic). I do not see how this team could be a solid playoff team (one where you should make the playoffs unless things go really bad for a season) for the next five seasons.
Wilson has had close to two decades; he has produced a Presidents' Trophy and a conference championship. It is time to go in a different direction.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Having said all the above, it is clear that the organization has not decided to move in a new direction. If it had, Wilson would have been fired in May. So where are they now?

 

[one2gamble]

Unconfirmed report eichel traded to Montreal.

None of the big names reporting anything

They have the parts but it would still be surprising

 

[Kcoyote3]

I’d have started a new thread so we could really all have it out

 

[timorous me]

I'd say the biggest issue for a manager in this role for so long is the risk of the game sort of passing him by. Doug has always made an effort to try to keep up with the new trends of play within the league, though sometimes to his detriment--or not quickly enough (I'm thinking most recently of the team suddenly being so slow compared to opponents around the league, though he then did work to rectify this). And unfortunately it did seem like he was slow to make analytics a part of the organizational decision-making process, though there's been work in this regard, too.

I'm still not convinced it's enough to argue that new blood would be beneficial, but the best thing Doug has going for him now, I'd say, is Junior's increasing role. The farm system has turned around pretty quickly under his influence, and if you look beyond that and at most of the personnel moves DW has made since the start of last season--from Balcers to this summer's signings--I'd say there's clear improvement in that regard (Doug has had some successful big moves, but many of his smaller ones have been problematic and reactionary).

The organization seems to finally be embracing the modern NHL game, so considering my question marks over others who could possibly be brought in to replace DW and Jr., I'm content seeing his continued direction for the club--for now. But my leash with him (if I were Hasso) would be pretty short.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Summary: Doug Wilson is not a bad GM; I would put him in the top third of NHL GMs.

I wanted to focus on this point.

What does being top-third mean in a league where only #1 gets rewarded?

 

[hohosaregood]

I wanted to focus on this point.

What does being top-third mean in a league where only #1 gets rewarded?

30 incompetents that should be fired immediately for being losers

 

[OrrNumber4]

30 incompetents that should be fired immediately for being losers

That's not my point (and you know it).

Maybe if you have an elite scouting team, an elite developmental group, a top-5 coaching staff, the best analytics team in the league, a great culture/environment, and are located in a top-5 desirable area a GM who's in the top third of the league will be sufficient for cup aspirations.

 

[hohosaregood]

That's not my point (and you know it).

Maybe if you have an elite scouting team, an elite developmental group, a top-5 coaching staff, the best analytics team in the league, a great culture/environment, and are located in a top-5 desirable area a GM who's in the top third of the league will be sufficient for cup aspirations.

It depends on what your org's criteria for success is like any other org out there. A rebuilding team isn't measuring their success by how many cups they're winning in the next 3 years. You can be good at your job and still be unsuccessful and vice versa. So I think it can be counterproductive to have your only metric for success be "how many times were you the best".

 

[tiburon12]

I wanted to focus on this point.

What does being top-third mean in a league where only #1 gets rewarded?

That's not my point (and you know it).

Maybe if you have an elite scouting team, an elite developmental group, a top-5 coaching staff, the best analytics team in the league, a great culture/environment, and are located in a top-5 desirable area a GM who's in the top third of the league will be sufficient for cup aspirations.

I think you nailed a big topic in the second post. like any quality organization, be it a school, business, government etc., senior leadership succeeds when they are surrounded by quality supporting staff.

I'm warming up to Jr, both in his decision making and the way he carries himself. Being able to connect with young talent is important, and seeing how he's interacting with them publicly is positive to see.

Other than that, today's NHL requires top level people across the board, and the Sharks are still employing some fossils like Sommer. DW should be looking to stock his executive cupboard with fresh talent. That said, I do wonder just how many qualified people there are for these positions. There aren't 32 Tyler Dellows after all.

Ultimately, things start and stop with DW, but that doesn't mean he should bear the responsibility of being the "best" at every faction of hockey ops. Better scouts, better analytics people, etc will help get this team over the top with a GM of DW's caliber

 

[Sharksrule04]

I think you nailed a big topic in the second post. like any quality organization, be it a school, business, government etc., senior leadership succeeds when they are surrounded by quality supporting staff.

I'm warming up to Jr, both in his decision making and the way he carries himself. Being able to connect with young talent is important, and seeing how he's interacting with them publicly is positive to see.

Other than that, today's NHL requires top level people across the board, and the Sharks are still employing some fossils like Sommer. DW should be looking to stock his executive cupboard with fresh talent. That said, I do wonder just how many qualified people there are for these positions. There aren't 32 Tyler Dellows after all.

Ultimately, things start and stop with DW, but that doesn't mean he should bear the responsibility of being the "best" at every faction of hockey ops. Better scouts, better analytics people, etc will help get this team over the top with a GM of DW's caliber

Yea I'm a big fan of DW Jr. He's professional, personable and seems like he's really good at scouting young talent. I know people like to complain about the nepotism stuff but I think he's earned his role. I personally am still ok with Sharks management/front office. I want to see what Wilson does with the next wave of contracts (term and value) and I want to see how DW Jr's draft picks develop. GM's make mistakes, I want to see if Wilson learned from those Vlasic and Jones contracts. We will see what he gives Hertl.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

DW utilized all of his trades assets to keep this team competitive for over a decade. With the internal talent pool depleted, DW had very little leverage and resources for trades, which has been a big part of his arsenal. Now that drafting is improving, we have a healthier pipeline of talent coming up, and we aren’t mortgaging the future, I do think DW will be at his best in the coming years. We are probably two big trades away from being a really good team. One to get rid of a bad contract and another to bring in a top talent. Jones is already gone and we have competent replacements, which is a huge win. I also like that DW is being more patient and frugal. He’s making a few shrewd moves each year rather than aiming for the moon like we want him to on the boards. It looks like the team will be trending up significantly and the roster will be complete in 2 years time when the latest crop of young talent is ready to come in. I’m optimistic about his recent improvements snd his strategy. Like fine wine, he is getting better with age.

 

[STL Shark]

Yea I'm a big fan of DW Jr. He's professional, personable and seems like he's really good at scouting young talent. I know people like to complain about the nepotism stuff but I think he's earned his role. I personally am still ok with Sharks management/front office. I want to see what Wilson does with the next wave of contracts (term and value) and I want to see how DW Jr's draft picks develop. GM's make mistakes, I want to see if Wilson learned from those Vlasic and Jones contracts. We will see what he gives Hertl.

Yep. I am very pleased in how they have re-structured the scouting staff and made DW Jr. the head of it, but also kept Burke around in some capacity. While the game seemed to pass Burke by, he still has a huge network of sources and connections all over the world in the scouting and junior hockey landscape. DW Jr is not going to magically just flip a switch and know all of those people so keeping Burke around in this role is something I think has been very smart by the organization.

 

[Mattb124]

Yea I'm a big fan of DW Jr. He's professional, personable and seems like he's really good at scouting young talent. I know people like to complain about the nepotism stuff but I think he's earned his role. I personally am still ok with Sharks management/front office. I want to see what Wilson does with the next wave of contracts (term and value) and I want to see how DW Jr's draft picks develop. GM's make mistakes, I want to see if Wilson learned from those Vlasic and Jones contracts. We will see what he gives Hertl.

Not to mention, he has great hair.

 

[tealzamboni]

DW utilized all of his trades assets to keep this team competitive for over a decade. With the internal talent pool depleted, DW had very little leverage and resources for trades, which has been a big part of his arsenal. Now that drafting is improving, we have a healthier pipeline of talent coming up, and we aren’t mortgaging the future, I do think DW will be at his best in the coming years. We are probably two big trades away from being a really good team. One to get rid of a bad contract and another to bring in a top talent. Jones is already gone and we have competent replacements, which is a huge win. I also like that DW is being more patient and frugal. He’s making a few shrewd moves each year rather than aiming for the moon like we want him to on the boards. It looks like the team will be trending up significantly and the roster will be complete in 2 years time when the latest crop of young talent is ready to come in. I’m optimistic about his recent improvements snd his strategy. Like fine wine, he is getting better with age.

At the moment, that will be true in one year (2022 2nd).
Unless he refinances and acquires another 2022 2nd. But, then he'd be playing the asset game again.

 

[tealzamboni]

I'd say the biggest issue for a manager in this role for so long is the risk of the game sort of passing him by. Doug has always made an effort to try to keep up with the new trends of play within the league, though sometimes to his detriment--or not quickly enough (I'm thinking most recently of the team suddenly being so slow compared to opponents around the league, though he then did work to rectify this). And unfortunately it did seem like he was slow to make analytics a part of the organizational decision-making process, though there's been work in this regard, too.

I'm still not convinced it's enough to argue that new blood would be beneficial, but the best thing Doug has going for him now, I'd say, is Junior's increasing role. The farm system has turned around pretty quickly under his influence, and if you look beyond that and at most of the personnel moves DW has made since the start of last season--from Balcers to this summer's signings--I'd say there's clear improvement in that regard (Doug has had some successful big moves, but many of his smaller ones have been problematic and reactionary).

The organization seems to finally be embracing the modern NHL game, so considering my question marks over others who could possibly be brought in to replace DW and Jr., I'm content seeing his continued direction for the club--for now. But my leash with him (if I were Hasso) would be pretty short.

I'm keeping an eye on the farm. While improved (from rock bottom), I'm not yet sold on it being a strong point. It has pieces that the big club desperately needs. But, I'm not sure that other clubs are eyeing that list and thinking "you can have my 2nds for that" or "I'd blockbuster trade for that".

For now, I think Junior has improved the management side of scouting and drafting. But, I'm skeptical that the Sharks have developed better instincts for talent evaluation and projection.

 

[The Great John Scott]

Not to mention, he has great hair.

I misread the comment chain and thought you were talking about Burke.