No, Tampa can still be first, though they'd need Carolina to have a terrible finish (earn at most two points in their last three games).
CAR 79 points, 3 games left, maximum 85 points.
TBL 73 points, 4 games left, maximum 81 points
FLA 75 points, 2 games left, maximum 79 points.
We could tie Carolina in points if we won both our games and they lost all of theirs, but they have more regulation wins (the 1st tiebreaker) even if we won both against Tampa in regulation. So we can't be first.
If both Tampa and Carolina have 79-81 points, then it comes down to the regulation wins. Tampa currently has one more RW than Carolina and two more ROW (the second tiebreaker), so if they finish tied at 81 points, Tampa would be first.
Basically, unless Carolina really drops the ball, they're first. But in theory, Tampa could still finish anywhere between 1-3. We'll finish 2nd or 3rd and the Canes 1st/2nd.