Roster Moves: 2021 Roster Thread XXV: Extended Qualifying Offers to Bunnaman, Hart, Kase, Sanheim; Morin re-signed

[Fight4yourRight]

Risto may well stink up the joint when he arrives, who really knows, but at the very least Sanheim will finally have someone to defend him from big bad Gerbe.

 

[Juicy Pop]

Because his first name isn’t Travis.

Travis Moen out of retirement then?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Great input.

He appears to have solid underlying stats. What makes him "not good"

My opinion matters now? Decent chance you'll just take offense to it anyway.

 

[renberg]

I’d like to see some certainty with Giroux and Couturier going forward. In order to get that the Flyers need to accept that Couturier is the face of the franchise and give him what he needs and deserves. Giroux needs to accept that this club is Couturier’s now and take on the role of the supportive veteran. That means in the locker room and on the payroll. The organization has paid him well over his career. He’s made good money here and been supported throughout his career. If either of these guys were to leave it would be more than unfortunate.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Couturier & Giroux are likely gonna get their desired contracts whether it’s here or elsewhere. So I’d imagine it comes down to whether they’re confident in this organization or not going forward compared to other suitors.

 

[CapnZin]

View attachment 459017

That EV WAR is glaring. Love how the Ghost + 13th overall pick + Hagg + 2 2nds + 7th got us that

 

[Ghosts Beer]

WAR is such a BS stat.

 

[deadhead]

Its impossible to know what an agent and the GM are talking about regarding contracts, so we shouldnt jump to conclusions.

We do know, definitively, though, that Chris Stewart wasnt brought in and given a contract to be a regular, despite being used that way out of the gate. We can absolutely draw that conclusion.


Honestly, I don't get how you play both sides of the coin whenever the feeling suits. What a life to live.

But he wasn't used as a regular out of the gate.

He sat the first few games, then played a couple, it was Twarynski who started out of the gate.
Stewart got in the lineup for a few games when Pitlick was hurt, then a few more as the #12 forward, and after that he was back in the press box except for a few games in December when forwards were dropping like flies.

I think the primary reason he played at all is they were looking for a net front presence, and someone you might dress a dozen times a year against teams like the Islanders on the road.

Ideally, Frost/Vorobyev takes over the 3C spot, Bunnaman the 4C spot and Twarynski LW. But they blew their opportunity.

Meanwhile Lindblom forces his way into the top 6 (13:53 at ES, 6th on the team, ahead of JVR) before cancer knocked him out, and Laughton played his way into the team's future.

 

[Philly Fanatik]

Sign me up for Hanifin for Sanheim

Yes…and me too!

 

[Gert B Frobe]

What are some bad players with good underlying stats? Does that never happen? Are there any good players with bad underlying stats? Does that happen or are these stats the end-all be-all? Honestly I don't know. Seems like there's a lot of people on here who fully understand them and are committed to believing they are the vast majority of valid player evaluation.

 

[deadhead]

Well, stats have to be put into context.
Gudas has had very good metrics, yet every team he is on limits him to a 3rd pair role.
Chris Folin had solid metrics, but proved to be a 7th D-man.

You don't win games with metrics, they're predictive statistics with a lot of noise, in general they provide useful information, but you should always take them with a grain of salt. For some players, they predict production better than for other players.

 

[Magua]

Anyone have any Corsi stats on hand? That’s my go-to.

 

[Juicy Pop]

What are some bad players with good underlying stats? Does that never happen? Are there any good players with bad underlying stats? Does that happen or are these stats the end-all be-all? Honestly I don't know. Seems like there's a lot of people on here who fully understand them and are committed to believing they are the vast majority of valid player evaluation.

I only like using WAR in contract talks because I'd bet that agents are using it whenever it's in favor of their player.

Outside of that, hockey is complex and it's probable that there is not enough data being tracked to produce a reliable version of WAR. I don't think we'll get there until there are dedicated cameras capturing play with some form of computer analysis.

 

[baudib1]

What are some bad players with good underlying stats? Does that never happen? Are there any good players with bad underlying stats? Does that happen or are these stats the end-all be-all? Honestly I don't know. Seems like there's a lot of people on here who fully understand them and are committed to believing they are the vast majority of valid player evaluation.

Pretty sure Weber was a good example of the latter.

 

[Starat327]

What are some bad players with good underlying stats? Does that never happen? Are there any good players with bad underlying stats? Does that happen or are these stats the end-all be-all? Honestly I don't know. Seems like there's a lot of people on here who fully understand them and are committed to believing they are the vast majority of valid player evaluation.

You don't have to look far.

Robert hagg had a 14 game stretch where he was playing at top pair level and had potentially "turned the corner" last year. Statistically, anyway. He was still playing at a replacement level, but he was being carried by favorable usage and good linemates, Driving his metrics through the roof while still continuing to be a drag on the team.

Statistically, Ghost was our best defensive defenseman last year, but everyone thinks he's as bad at D as Hagg actually is and is happy he's gone.

 

[Juicy Pop]

You don't have to look far.

Robert hagg had a 14 game stretch where he was playing at top pair level and had potentially "turned the corner" last year. Statistically, anyway. He was still playing at a replacement level, but he was being carried by favorable usage and good linemates, Driving his metrics through the roof while still continuing to be a drag on the team.

Statistically, Ghost was our best defensive defenseman last year, but everyone thinks he's as bad at D as Hagg actually is and is happy he's gone.

The random close games where we eeked out a win and somehow VdV was the Corsi darling...

 

[Gert B Frobe]

My impression of advanced statistics in hockey, is they generally miss accurately accounting for how good, or bad the player's team is. And yes - we have all seen guys like VdV have good Corsi numbers and not just for individual games.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Anyone have any Corsi stats on hand? That’s my go-to.

yah, the important one is uselesshits/60...

 

[Magua]

My impression of advanced statistics in hockey, is they generally miss accurately accounting for how good, or bad the player's team is. And yes - we have all seen guys like VdV have good Corsi numbers and not just for individual games.

They’re almost all graded relative to the team or teammates to not miss out on that at all.

VDV’s best relCF% season was almost -4%. So, no that’s not true. And we have better stats to account for quality. He sucked just as much. Sounds to me like your impression could use some actual stats.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

VandeVelde’s metrics weren’t good at any point with the Flyers (or really his career for that matter). His first season he shot about double over his career average which skewed things. That obviously regressed back to the mean the following seasons & his metrics more so reflected his production.

 

[Starat327]

They’re almost all graded relative to the team or teammates to not miss out on that at all.

VDV’s best relCF% season was almost -4%. So, no that’s not true. And we have better stats to account for quality. He sucked just as much. Sounds to me like your impression could use some actual stats.

It's funny how the "I dont believe in advanced stats" crowd always tend to be...not so advanced?

 

[Rebels57]

You don't have to look far.

Robert hagg had a 14 game stretch where he was playing at top pair level and had potentially "turned the corner" last year. Statistically, anyway. He was still playing at a replacement level, but he was being carried by favorable usage and good linemates, Driving his metrics through the roof while still continuing to be a drag on the team.

Statistically, Ghost was our best defensive defenseman last year, but everyone thinks he's as bad at D as Hagg actually is and is happy he's gone.

I do gotta say, im happy to not have to watch or talk about Hagg anymore. Even if Risto ends up a disaster, and least it'll be fresh complaints instead of stale ones lol

 

[Math the wild rose]

It's funny how the "I dont believe in advanced stats" crowd always tend to be...not so advanced?

I need a course in hockey advanced statistics

The risk was calculated...

But man I am bad at maths...

 

[Math the wild rose]

Advanced statistician needed

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Hopefully the return will be nice then.

Narrator: "It was not."