2021 Roster Thread XIV - Off-season edition

[Beef Invictus]

Have you heard one rumor of ANY team interested in trading for Ghost.
I mean it's generally known he could be made available, yet "crickets."
Me thinks you overrate Ghost's value.

If he returns, it's going to be as a 3rd pair D-man paired with Braun or Hagg.

Then we keep him and keep a cap efficient dman who is quite good even if he's unrecognized due to dumbass biases. It's a win.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I was talking about Gardiner.

Still not as terrible as you claim. He focused on defense this year. Last year he focused on offense. Either way he still outscores his opposition.

This is worth decent cap hit on the market. I wish Gardiner were our worst dman.

 

[Rebels57]

Ghost outplayed his cap hit by a wide margin this year.

Amazing you still think waivers are an infallible gauge of player value though. Then again, you also think team wins and losses are useful for gauging an individual player. So probably not surprising.

I wouldnt go that far. I'd say "met expectations" is more accurate. Which no one else on the D except I guess Braun can say.

 

[Striiker]

Ghost easily outplayed his cap hit.

$4.5m for a top pair capable D? Who was good both offensively and defensively, while being an incredible puck mover in a system that makes it infinitely more difficult than it has to be? While spending most of the year buried with trash? Yeah, that’s a good deal.

He also paced for 40+ points in a season where the PP was a joke and he had bad luck with assists.

But the staff doesn’t like him so the media shills and the fan shills have to downplay everything he does. Especially after how they spent all last year swearing he was a goner who couldn’t play at a high level anymore.

 

[FLYguy3911]

So if we get Jones do we have any hope he can be a positive player on our team or is that a ship that is way out to see and not coming back?

Jones is probably somewhere in between what the models say and what his reputation is among the hockey public. That's quite the gap of course so I'm not exactly going out on a limb there, but his teams consistently outshoot the opponent when he is on the ice. You still have to be pretty good to accomplish that feat. Problem is, over 9 seasons he has underperformed via expected goals in all but one of those seasons. There is clearly a disconnect. There's also a clear peak and decline in his 5v5 scoring rates. There are obviously better measures of a player but that stands out immediately. Maybe there's a system that will maximize his raw abilities, but that ain't this one.

In a vacuum where Jones is available for fair market value, I'd probably like to have a Seth Jones on my team as a guy that could probably do pretty well in a secondary role. In a world where I have to pay a massive premium to acquire his rights as a rental, pay him like one of the top defensemen in the game at max term, and be forced to play him on the top pair with a guy who is in a similar boat? That's an easy pass. Especially when a guy like Hamilton is likely to hit the open market who is bigger (if that is your cup of tea), better, and will only cost $$$ (and maybe less than Jones) and not trade assets. And if you're one of those people that think Hamilton isn't a personality fit here, I'd suggest you do a background check on Jones (and his mother) and how those views will fit in a city like Philadelphia.

 

[Curufinwe]

This is flat-out the opposite of what happened.

I think you have a poor understanding of dman value if you think Gardiner at 4mil for 4 years is a hoodwink.

Gardiner is their #7/8 dman in the playoffs. He only played 26 games in the regular season.

 

[BritainStix]

Ghost easily outplayed his cap hit.

$4.5m for a top pair capable D? Who was good both offensively and defensively, while being an incredible puck mover in a system that makes it infinitely more difficult than it has to be? While spending most of the year buried with trash? Yeah, that’s a good deal.

He also paced for 40+ points in a season where the PP was a joke and he had bad luck with assists.

But the staff doesn’t like him so the media shills and the fan shills have to downplay everything he does. Especially after how they spent all last year swearing he was a goner who couldn’t play at a high level anymore.

We get it, you're a Ghost fan.....

 

[Kelmitchell2]

We get it, you're a Ghost fan.....

As he should be

 

[Striiker]

We get it, you're a Ghost fan.....

I wasn’t the one who brought him up. Go hiss at them instead, officer.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Ghost fan and Sanheim lover. Tough combo. @Striiker

 

[Beef Invictus]

Gardiner is their #7/8 dman in the playoffs. He only played 26 games in the regular season.

And that's an incredible luxury

 

[Striiker]

Ghost fan and Sanheim lover. Tough combo. @Striiker

Giroux/Voracek fanboy too.

Weird how I like our best players, isn’t it?

 

[Tripod]

Is there any other top pairing Dmen making 4.5 million....that would clear waivers?

 

[FlyerNutter]

The fact that this team still needs a young 1D and 1C, and hasn’t been able to find anything close to one internally since Couturier was drafted in 2011...

With Hart having the year he had...

What is likely needed here, is Eichel AND Hamilton - but that isn’t happening.

Im not buying this organization’s magic beans that they are anything but dreaming of that mystical first round matchup. This club isn’t anywhere close to winning a damn thing, and should stop pretending it is.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Jones is probably somewhere in between what the models say and what his reputation is among the hockey public. That's quite the gap of course so I'm not exactly going out on a limb there, but his teams consistently outshoot the opponent when he is on the ice. You still have to be pretty good to accomplish that feat. Problem is, over 9 seasons he has underperformed via expected goals in all but one of those seasons. There is clearly a disconnect. There's also a clear peak and decline in his 5v5 scoring rates. There are obviously better measures of a player but that stands out immediately. Maybe there's a system that will maximize his raw abilities, but that ain't this one.

In a vacuum where Jones is available for fair market value, I'd probably like to have a Seth Jones on my team as a guy that could probably do pretty well in a secondary role. In a world where I have to pay a massive premium to acquire his rights as a rental, pay him like one of the top defensemen in the game at max term, and be forced to play him on the top pair with a guy who is in a similar boat? That's an easy pass.

I know you know this, but for those who don’t follow these things closely, this is the reasoned “analaytical” position on Jones. Please ignore the people who won’t have a nuanced discussion on the matter.

His recent impacts have been downright poor. That’s not the same thing as calling him a poor Defenseman. These are influenced by Tortorella’s system, his teammates, his usage, and any number of other factors. The problem is twofold. First, when we attempt to control for many of the factors you would blame, the picture still hasn’t been top pairing quality. But more than that, you would have to pay through the nose for him on both axes, so your confidence level that he magically returns to 2017 form has to be sky high. I’m all for targeted bounce back bets. I don’t want to pay a king’s ransom in both contract term and traded assets for one.

I will say that a Defenseman has much less influence on finishing rates than Forwards, so that’s a mild tick in his favor. He indeed might rebound. The discussion should be about the likelihood, not whether that’s possible.

 

[deadhead]

Ghost is grossly overrated by some here:
Two measures of offensive production (I mean, that IS his calling card)
pp/60: 1.20, 0.49, 1.06, 0.91, 0.49, 0.82
xGF/60: 2.18, 2.27, 2.17, 2.16, 2.10, 2.14

Power play
pp/60: 5.15, 4.75, 7.03, 3.10, 2.72, 4.81
xGF/60: 8.33, 9.87, 8.83, 8.08, 6.22, 7.41

Provorov (for comparison's sake)
pp/60: 0.88, 1.08, 0.79, 0.59, 0.64
xGF/60: 1.86, 2.10, 2.25, 2.31, 2.06

Power play
pp/60: 2.15, 2.03, 0.94, 4.57, 4.45
xGF/60: 5.25, 5.26, 5.12, 5.94, 6.13

Now let's look at possible acquisitions and other players of interest, last three years combined (2000+ minutes - 158 players):

xGF/60: Hamilton 2.96 (1), Gardiner 2.62 (8), Martinez 2.50 (25), Ellis 2.47 (32), Ekholm 2.38 (47), Gus 2.30 (73), Sanheim 2.30 (74), Oleksiak 2.30 (75), Gudas 2.29 (77), Edmundson 2.24 (94), Provorov 2.22 (97), Jones 2.22 (98), Ghost 2.14 (123), Braun 2.14 (124), Savard 2.13 (127), Hagg 2.10 (133), Montour 2.06 (141), Larsson 2.06 (142), Manson 2.05 (145), Doughty 2.04 (148), Ristolainen 1.99 (154)

pp/60: Ellis 1.29 (7), Hamilton 1.25 (11), Gus 1.18 (16), Ekholm 1.13 (21), Sanheim 1.00 (36), Martinez 0.97 (40), Montour 0.97 (42), Gardiner 0.90 (58), Hagg 0.88 (67), Jones 0.87 (69), Gudas 0.85 (80), Ghost 0.78 (92), Oleksiak 0.76 (99), Braun 0.74 (104), Provorov 0.69 (118), Doughty 0.66 (124), Manson 0.61 (142), Savard 0.57 (147).

Ghost is pretty middle of the pack as an offensive defenseman, and that's when healthy.
Sanheim is clearly better than Jones offensively.
Hamilton is an elite offensive defenseman, and makes far more sense than Jones, who is nothing special offensively and inconsistent defensively.
Martinez is better offensively than I thought, as is Ellis.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Is there any other top pairing Dmen making 4.5 million....that would clear waivers?

No. Goes to show how broken Hockey Guy thinking is.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Ghost is grossly overrated by some here:
Two measures of offensive production (I mean, that IS his calling card)
pp/60: 1.20, 0.49, 1.06, 0.91, 0.49, 0.82
xGF/60: 2.18, 2.27, 2.17, 2.16, 2.10, 2.14

Power play
pp/60: 5.15, 4.75, 7.03, 3.10, 2.72, 4.81
xGF/60: 8.33, 9.87, 8.83, 8.08, 6.22, 7.41

Provorov (for comparison's sake)
pp/60: 0.88, 1.08, 0.79, 0.59, 0.64
xGF/60: 1.86, 2.10, 2.25, 2.31, 2.06

Power play
pp/60: 2.15, 2.03, 0.94, 4.57, 4.45
xGF/60: 5.25, 5.26, 5.12, 5.94, 6.13

Now let's look at possible acquisitions and other players of interest, last three years combined (2000+ minutes - 158 players):

xGF/60: Hamilton 2.96 (1), Gardiner 2.62 (8), Martinez 2.50 (25), Ellis 2.47 (32), Ekholm 2.38 (47), Gus 2.30 (73), Sanheim 2.30 (74), Oleksiak 2.30 (75), Gudas 2.29 (77), Edmundson 2.24 (94), Provorov 2.22 (97), Jones 2.22 (98), Ghost 2.14 (123), Braun 2.14 (124), Savard 2.13 (127), Hagg 2.10 (133), Montour 2.06 (141), Larsson 2.06 (142), Manson 2.05 (145), Doughty 2.04 (148), Ristolainen 1.99 (154)

pp/60: Ellis 1.29 (7), Hamilton 1.25 (11), Gus 1.18 (16), Ekholm 1.13 (21), Sanheim 1.00 (36), Martinez 0.97 (40), Montour 0.97 (42), Gardiner 0.90 (58), Hagg 0.88 (67), Jones 0.87 (69), Gudas 0.85 (80), Ghost 0.78 (92), Oleksiak 0.76 (99), Braun 0.74 (104), Provorov 0.69 (118), Doughty 0.66 (124), Manson 0.61 (142), Savard 0.57 (147).

Ghost is pretty middle of the pack as an offensive defenseman, and that's when healthy.
Sanheim is clearly better than Jones offensively.
Hamilton is an elite offensive defenseman, and makes far more sense than Jones, who is nothing special offensively and inconsistent defensively.
Martinez is better offensively than I thought, as is Ellis.

Middle of the pack offensively while also actually being good defensively is a good player overall, yeah

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Jones is probably somewhere in between what the models say and what his reputation is among the hockey public. That's quite the gap of course so I'm not exactly going out on a limb there, but his teams consistently outshoot the opponent when he is on the ice. You still have to be pretty good to accomplish that feat. Problem is, over 9 seasons he has underperformed via expected goals in all but one of those seasons. There is clearly a disconnect. There's also a clear peak and decline in his 5v5 scoring rates. There are obviously better measures of a player but that stands out immediately. Maybe there's a system that will maximize his raw abilities, but that ain't this one.

In a vacuum where Jones is available for fair market value, I'd probably like to have a Seth Jones on my team as a guy that could probably do pretty well in a secondary role. In a world where I have to pay a massive premium to acquire his rights as a rental, pay him like one of the top defensemen in the game at max term, and be forced to play him on the top pair with a guy who is in a similar boat? That's an easy pass. Especially when a guy like Hamilton is likely to hit the open market who is bigger (if that is your cup of tea), better, and will only cost $$$ (and maybe less than Jones) and not trade assets. And if you're one of those people that think Hamilton isn't a personality fit here, I'd suggest you do a background check on Jones (and his mother) and how those views will fit in a city like Philadelphia.

Is being a QAnon or whatever whack job really that big of a deal breaker for most that want him? Same within the NHL organization(s)?

 

[Striiker]

Middle of the pack offensively while also actually being good defensively is a good player overall, yeah

And if he wasn’t getting buried he’d be scoring more.

Similar to how Couturiers scoring drastically changed when he wasn’t stuck on the 3rd line with crap linemates.

Usage matters a whole lot.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Is there any other top pairing Dmen making 4.5 million....that would clear waivers?

Andrew MacDonald Transactions - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Rebels57]

Is being a QAnon or whatever whack job really that big of a deal breaker for most that want him? Same within the NHL organization(s)?

Jones is a f***ing QAnon shithead?

 

[renberg]

But surely that (major university) is not why the players keep leaving, is it? Is it a small place? An awful place? Boring place?

Is it Torts? Kekalainen? Clearly something is going on that no legitimate talent wants to stick around.

Its probably a little bit of all that you mention. Right now I am living in NW Ohio and have not attachments to the State. In fact for a lot of reasons, I can't wait until my time here is done and I can return to the Philly area. IMO, Columbus is a dump. Small town that thinks that it is more than it is. It has grown faster than other regions of the State but that's due to the others rusting out more than it becoming more enticing. In the end its a city with a major university; the capitol of the State and some large industries. There are no cultural spots of renown. The number of run down neighborhoods the city is growing and along with that drugs and crime. Racial relations have become tense. If you get twenty miles out of town, it gets pretty red neck in a hurry. Suffice it to say that it is not a uplifting cosmopolitan mecca. Add Torts to that and for a large amount of players, its a no go.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Jones is a f***ing QAnon shithead?

Yes. Look at his likes on twitter.

 

[Tripod]

And if he wasn’t getting buried he’d be scoring more.

Similar to how Couturiers scoring drastically changed when he wasn’t stuck on the 3rd line with crap linemates.

Usage matters a whole lot.

Buried?

Ghosts most common D partner was Provy.

His most common F were Giroux, JVR, Hayes and Jake in that order.

That's it buried at all.