2021 Roster Thread XIV - Off-season edition

[Beef Invictus]

Not true. Gardiner was a fancy-stat darling. He was actually disliked by much of Toronto's fanbase, but the fancy-stat crowd insisted he was one of the most underrated defensemen in hockey.

Probably why Carolina got hoodwinked into signing him for 4 years at $4M per, only for him to end up a healthy scratch and waived with no takers. Perfect example of fancy stats not telling nearly the whole story.

This is flat-out the opposite of what happened.

I think you have a poor understanding of dman value if you think Gardiner at 4mil for 4 years is a hoodwink. Then again you also somehow think Ghost has a bad contract, so that fits.

 

[Prongo]

My prediction for the defense next year:

Provorov - Jones
Sanheim - Zamula
York - Myers.
Hagg
Morin

Just think with Zamula saying Fletcher and company pretty much told him there will be changes and be prepared to be on the team. Ghost I believe will be traded to a team like the Panthers or Arizona. We will more than likely take a contract back with the same length or is a UFA after next year.

 

[flyersnorth]

I’m not sure where the idea of Sanheim being used in a trade package keeps coming from. I don’t think that’s realistic. Myers much more likely to be move IMO. I think any big splash the flyers make comes after the expansion draft when the cap situation is more clear.

I think it's just that *if* the Flyers trade for a guy like Jones, Columbus will want/need a defenseman back, and a quality one. It's not that they don't want Jones, it's that Jones doesn't want to stay, so they have a hole to fill.

Or say the Flyers sign Hamilton to a $9M/year contract. Can they realistically keep Hamilton, Provorov, Sanheim (with his new contract), and Ghost (assuming he's not taken in the ED)?

Someone has to go.

 

[Rebels57]

We probably have people here who believe that trading Sanheim for Jones straight up would make us worse...
I really hope that happens, just to see the reactions.

Not probably. Definitely. Because it would. Why do you think adding a worse defensemen who will big asking for a big raise would make us better?

 

[flyersnorth]

My prediction for the defense next year:

Provorov - Jones
Sanheim - Zamula
York - Myers.
Hagg
Morin

Just think with Zamula saying Fletcher and company pretty much told him there will be changes and be prepared to be on the team. Ghost I believe will be traded to a team like the Panthers or Arizona. We will more than likely take a contract back with the same length or is a UFA after next year.

FWIW, the Hawks blogger had this trade proposal for Jones -

* Dominik Kubalik
* Adam Gaudette (rights)
* Ian Mitchell
* 2021 1st round pick
* 2021 2nd round pick

What are you trading to Columbus in your scenario? They are absolutely going to want a defenseman back, I'd say.

 

[deadhead]

Trading Sanheim or Myers makes no sense, unless it's a "Hamilton" type deal where it's a clear upgrade on a cost controlled contract.
Jones is neither.

Flyers had 3 young D-men who were 24 last year, one of which finished the year with only 1 1/2 seasons of NHL experience.
Doesn't make sense to give up on them.
Add York (20) and Zamula (21) and you have an affordable D-core for the indefinite future.

The most likely trade candidates, depending who who is chosen in the ED, are Voracek and Ghost.
They're expensive, and they're not exactly AV or FO darlings.
I'm told Ghost is a top 4 D-man, so he should bring back a veteran top four RHD with a similar contract, right?
And Voracek is a harder fit than JVR (who has more value on the PP and can play with Hayes), but his scoring will be coveted by teams, so a deal can be worked out.

Flyers have talent, what they need is better chemistry and plugging a couple short-term holes (RHD, 1B goalie).

 

[Rebels57]

FWIW, the Hawks blogger had this trade proposal for Jones -

* Dominik Kubalik
* Adam Gaudette (rights)
* Ian Mitchell
* 2021 1st round pick
* 2021 2nd round pick

What are you trading to Columbus in your scenario? They are absolutely going to want a defenseman back, I'd say.

Well if a Hawks blogger said it...

 

[flyersnorth]

Well if a Hawks blogger said it...

There will be a lot of teams interested in Jones, and the price will probably be high. If the Leafs choke tonight, I betcha Jones rockets to the top of their offseason plans. Trade Nylander or Marner or something like that. That seems like a Toronto move.

The Oilers will be interested. The Hawks, the Wings.

If Fletch trades for Jones, the only guarantee is the armchair vitriol.

 

[Prongo]

FWIW, the Hawks blogger had this trade proposal for Jones -

* Dominik Kubalik
* Adam Gaudette (rights)
* Ian Mitchell
* 2021 1st round pick
* 2021 2nd round pick

What are you trading to Columbus in your scenario? They are absolutely going to want a defenseman back, I'd say.

I am always amazed how off base fans and even journalist are with their trade proposals. I always go back to ROR where Lebrun said two top pieces were needed to acquire him. Those two “top” pieces turned out to be Thompson and the first rounder. Columbus will probably be disappointed, especially since he only has one year left

 

[Rebels57]

There will be a lot of teams interested in Jones, and the price will probably be high. If the Leafs choke tonight, I betcha Jones rockets to the top of their offseason plans. Trade Nylander or Marner or something like that. That seems like a Toronto move.

The Oilers will be interested. The Hawks, the Wings.

If Fletch trades for Jones, the only guarantee is the armchair vitriol.

I do agree he will have high demand and someone will probably overpay. Not sure to that extent though. Kubalik is a 30 goal scorer already.

This reminds me of the Duchene event. Overrated player whose value got inflated and Colorado was able to trade him for a huge package that included Samuel Girard.

 

[deadhead]

I am always amazed how off base fans and even journalist are with their trade proposals. I always go back to ROR where Lebrun said two top pieces were needed to acquire him. Those two “top” pieces turned out to be Thompson and the first rounder. Columbus will probably be disappointed, especially since he only has one year left

Yep. Since you can't include a conditional 1st if he resigns, people will treat this as a one year rental.
And how much do you pay for a one year rental of a middle of the pack top 4 D-man?
Niskanen cost us Gudas and $1M, and he was at the time a two year rental.
Does anyone think one year of Jones is worth more than one year of Niskanen?

 

[Redpath]

I am always amazed how off base fans and even journalist are with their trade proposals. I always go back to ROR where Lebrun said two top pieces were needed to acquire him. Those two “top” pieces turned out to be Thompson and the first rounder. Columbus will probably be disappointed, especially since he only has one year left

Which is exactly why we need to do everything we can to get Eichel if that heats up this summer. Fans never learn

 

[Prongo]

Which is exactly why we need to do everything we can to get Eichel if that heats up this summer. Fans never learn

I’m all on board. I would go for Eichel 100x before I even consider Jones. Eichel is by far the better player and talent.

 

[flyersnorth]

I do agree he will have high demand and someone will probably overpay. Not sure to that extent though. Kubalik is a 30 goal scorer already.

This reminds me of the Duchene event. Overrated player whose value got inflated and Colorado was able to trade him for a huge package that included Samuel Girard.

I think the 'overpay' is inevitable when supply is thin and demand is high. Half a dozen teams vying for one guy who just publicly said he's not staying in Ohio.

Honestly, they should just move the team somewhere else. Imagine how demoralizing it would be if you lived there and supported your team, yet everyone good just up and leaves at the first opportunity. It's not really an even playing field. I'd say move them to Quebec, but I feel like many NHL players would view Quebec City the same way (especially with the militant language pressure) and just not sign there or leave at the first opportunity.

 

[renberg]

When the dust settles, the defenseman to be added to the club will probably be someone that hasn’t been focused on by the fans. Look for a RH vet who has shown that they can handle tough minutes. Ellis, Ekholm or Savard are my guesses right now but it will probably be someone else. The organization has young players. It needs a quality vet and Braun isn’t it.

 

[flyersnorth]

Yep. Since you can't include a conditional 1st if he resigns, people will treat this as a one year rental.
And how much do you pay for a one year rental of a middle of the pack top 4 D-man?
Niskanen cost us Gudas and $1M, and he was at the time a two year rental.
Does anyone think one year of Jones is worth more than one year of Niskanen?

Is it still the case that teams can't renegotiate an extension until Jan 1 of the expiring year?

 

[renberg]

I think the 'overpay' is inevitable when supply is thin and demand is high. Half a dozen teams vying for one guy who just publicly said he's not staying in Ohio.

Honestly, they should just move the team somewhere else. Imagine how demoralizing it would be if you lived there and supported your team, yet everyone good just up and leaves at the first opportunity. It's not really an even playing field. I'd say move them to Quebec, but I feel like many NHL players would view Quebec City the same way (especially with the militant language pressure) and just not sign there or leave at the first opportunity.

The Jackets would have had a better chance at success if they had been placed in Cleveland. It’s tough for pro teams to compete with a major university in the same town. However Nationwide had the pull and got the franchise into Columbus.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

This is flat-out the opposite of what happened.

I think you have a poor understanding of dman value if you think Gardiner at 4mil for 4 years is a hoodwink. Then again you also somehow think Ghost has a bad contract, so that fits.

Ah, so being against spending $4M in cap space for 4 seasons on a defenseman who is a healthy scratch, gets waived, and passes through waivers is your idea of "a poor understanding of dman value." LOL.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Whatever the FO decides to do it won’t matter if the young players on this team (Farabee aside) don’t bounce back.

 

[flyersnorth]

The Jackets would have had a better chance at success if they had been placed in Cleveland. It’s tough for pro teams to compete with a major university in the same town. However Nationwide had the pull and got the franchise into Columbus.

But surely that (major university) is not why the players keep leaving, is it? Is it a small place? An awful place? Boring place?

Is it Torts? Kekalainen? Clearly something is going on that no legitimate talent wants to stick around.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

We probably have people here who believe that trading Sanheim for Jones straight up would make us worse...
I really hope that happens, just to see the reactions.

There's no question. People are so attached to "advanced stats" that they can't pull themselves away from treating them like EA Sports ratings. It's the same crowd who were against trading Gudas for Niskanen.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Ah, so being against spending $4M in cap space for 4 seasons on a defenseman who is a healthy scratch, gets waived, and passes through waivers is your idea of "a poor understanding of dman value." LOL.

Ghost outplayed his cap hit by a wide margin this year.

Amazing you still think waivers are an infallible gauge of player value though. Then again, you also think team wins and losses are useful for gauging an individual player. So probably not surprising.

 

[deadhead]

When the dust settles, the defenseman to be added to the club will probably be someone that hasn’t been focused on by the fans. Look for a RH vet who has shown that they can handle tough minutes. Ellis, Ekholm or Savard are my guesses right now but it will probably be someone else. The organization has young players. It needs a quality vet and Braun isn’t it.

Yeah, I think Fletcher is wary of trading good young talent that has struggled, he stopped doing that after he was burned in Minnesota.
It makes more sense to work out a deal for a veteran at a reasonable cost, especially if they can swap out one of their veteran contracts - which is usually how those deals work, veteran for veteran with sweeteners and retained money evening out the deal.

If they go FA, it'll be something like a 4x4 deal with a flat cap, good veterans will not be that expensive in FA this year.

I see this offseason as one player taken in the ED, one veteran traded, and a 1B goalie and veteran D-man added (playing Sanheim with Provorov at the end of the season suggests they were exploring options, say bring in a veteran to pair with Myers on the 2nd pair). York and Braun on the 3rd pair, Zamula starts the season in the NHL and is groomed to replace Braun.

I don't think they'll make many other moves, other than a possible tweak in the bottom six, say NAK and a 2nd for a more reliable veteran bottom six forward who can play 3C/4C and provide insurance for Frost and move Laczynski to RW.

 

[deadhead]

Ghost outplayed his cap hit by a wide margin this year.

Amazing you still think waivers are an infallible gauge of player value though. Then again, you also think team wins and losses are useful for gauging an individual player. So probably not surprising.

Have you heard one rumor of ANY team interested in trading for Ghost.
I mean it's generally known he could be made available, yet "crickets."
Me thinks you overrate Ghost's value.

If he returns, it's going to be as a 3rd pair D-man paired with Braun or Hagg.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Ghost outplayed his cap hit by a wide margin this year.

Amazing you still think waivers are an infallible gauge of player value though. Then again, you also think team wins and losses are useful for gauging an individual player. So probably not surprising.

I was talking about Gardiner.