Series Discussion: 2021 Playoffs Watch

[tenken00]

There's a little more clarity.

The Islanders are almost surely going to be the 4th seed after last night's results. Boston would need to lose their next 3 in regulation and the Islanders would need to win their next 2 games in order for NYI to get the third seed. Moneypuck has NYI at 98.5% as the #4 seed.

Here is the entire Moneypuck odds for where each team will finish (updated this morning):

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
WSH	57.9%	24.4%	17.7%	0%
PIT	29.6%	60.5%	10.0%	0%
BOS	12.6%	15.1%	70.8%	1.5%
NYI	0%	0%	1.5%	98.5%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'll post the Hockeyviz odds when they are up at 1:00 PM today.

It is certainly doable for NYI to climb back up to 3rd though. Looking at Boston's sched:

Boston

5/8 NY Rangers
5/10 NY Islanders
5/11 @ Washington


Rangers game tomorrow - depends on if the Rangers actually want to win a game for once

Islander - face each other

Washington - could be a tough game... could also be not


Islanders just have the Devils - easily doable

Bruins - face each other

 

[zappa4ever]

Oddsmakers don't know shit on games down the stretch in NHL
There's spoilers just about every night

It's pretty simple,
Caps are Guaranteed 1st if they win 2 of the 3 games in Regulation; in control of their own destiny
(that would put WSH at 77 pts and 30 RW, PIT or BOS would both lose tiebreakers if they both win out)
Caps/PIT are currently guaranteed at least 3rd

MAXIMUM possible points/RW:
WSH 79 pts 31 RW
PIT 77 pts 29 RW
BOS 77 pts 28 RW
NYI 72 pts 25 RW

CURRENT points/RW/GR:
WSH 73pts 28RW (3 GR)
PIT 75pts 28RW (1 GR)
BOS 71pts 25RW (3 GR)
NYI 68pts 23RW (2 GR)

RW = 1st tiebreaker
ROW = 2nd
W = 3rd

 

[twabby]

Here's today's Hockeyviz update:

Isles are now more likely than not the first round opponent, with a good chance of facing Boston as well.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Oddsmakers don't know shit on games down the stretch in NHL
There's spoilers just about every night

It's pretty simple,
Caps are Guaranteed 1st if they win 2 of the 3 games in Regulation; in control of their own destiny
(that would put WSH at 77 pts and 30 RW, PIT or BOS would both lose tiebreakers if they both win out)
Caps/PIT are currently guaranteed at least 3rd

MAXIMUM possible points/RW:
WSH 79 pts 31 RW
PIT 77 pts 29 RW
BOS 77 pts 28 RW
NYI 72 pts 25 RW

CURRENT points/RW/GR:
WSH 73pts 28RW (3 GR)
PIT 75pts 28RW (1 GR)
BOS 71pts 25RW (3 GR)
NYI 68pts 23RW (2 GR)

RW = 1st tiebreaker
ROW = 2nd
W = 3rd

Are we sure about this? Every place has the ROW posted in the standings, and I have read many hockey writers mention the Caps need 5pts to clinch it, not 4

 

[twabby]

Are we sure about this? Every place has the ROW posted in the standings, and I have read many hockey writers mention the Caps need 5pts to clinch it, not 4

Regulation wins are the first tiebreaker now, not regulation+OT wins (ROWs).

4 points won't clinch it if they don't get 2 regulation wins. But if they do win 2 in regulation, then 4 points will clinch 1st place.

 

[chilimac]

See(click on) "+Tie-Breaking Procedure" at the bottom of this (NHL Hockey Standings) page...

If tied in points...procedure is:
1-fewest games played(all will be 56, so...)
2-highest RW (2 regulation wins should do it for the Caps)
3-highest ROW
.... ... etc etc

NHL Hockey Standings

 

[bur and 666 others]

Doesn't matter who is the opponent and what the regular season record was against them. Look at the Rangers, they gave us fits the whole season long, but the last 2 games clearly showed we would beat them in the playoff series. It's all about us and catching the momentum. Especially considering all teams are equal. There is no favorite against anyone. So just hoping for good battles and long run.

 

[kicksavedave]

Doesn't matter who is the opponent and what the regular season record was against them. Look at the Rangers, they gave us fits the whole season long, but the last 2 games clearly showed we would beat them in the playoff series. It's all about us and catching the momentum. Especially considering all teams are equal. There is no favorite against anyone. So just hoping for good battles and long run.

This 100%.

If we play our game, if we play well, we can crush any team we face like we did in '18. If we bring a Todd Reirden style effort, anyone can/will beat us easily.

This is in our hands, not the fate of the gods.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

This 100%.

If we play our game, if we play well, we can crush any team we face like we did in '18. If we bring a Todd Reirden style effort, anyone can/will beat us easily.

This is in our hands, not the fate of the gods.

There’s always a component of luck in these things as well, so let’s hope we don’t anger the gods.

 

[kicksavedave]

There’s always a component of luck in these things as well, so let’s hope we don’t anger the gods.

The gods LOVE violence, revenge and mayhem, so they aught to be highly in favor of this weeks events.

 

[tenken00]

Updated after today's games.

Pens clinch 1st
Caps clinch 2nd

Islanders still have a chance to grab 3rd from Bruins. Monday is HUGE as they play each other.

Caps have a chance to decide who they play when they play against the Bruins on Tuesday depending on Monday's outcome.

 

[bur and 666 others]

It's interesting to see Islanders and Boston who want as their 1st round opponent us or Pens. I would imagine Islanders might want to avoid Pens, while Boston want to play them. At least this is the fan opinion, though the hockey players and coaches don't do think like this.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

IMHO, the Pens would destroy the Isles. The Broons would be a much stiffer challenge for them.

 

[caps4cup]

IMHO, the Pens would destroy the Isles. The Broons would be a much stiffer challenge for them.

The Penguins are extremely overrated IMO. Their 5v5 metrics are bad and they’ve been bailed out by good goaltending. I think I would pick either the Islanders or Bruins over them in a series.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

IMHO, the Pens would destroy the Isles. The Broons would be a much stiffer challenge for them.

Just on W-L, Pens won 6 v Aisles and only 3 v Bruins. If Caps don't care who they face, I'd prefer Broons to take on Pens and maybe knock them off.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

The Penguins are extremely overrated IMO. Their 5v5 metrics are bad and they’ve been bailed out by good goaltending. I think I would pick either the Islanders or Bruins over them in a series.

Obviously I would love to see the Pens lose to the Isles. I am not sure that will happen. Hopefully you are right with your analysis.

 

[caps4cup]

Obviously I would love to see the Pens lose to the Isles. I am not sure that will happen. Hopefully you are right with your analysis.

They’re still a highly skilled team and obviously anything can happen. I’m just not impressed by their 5v5 play and the analytics back that up. We’ll see what happens.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

They’re still a highly skilled team and obviously anything can happen. I’m just not impressed by their 5v5 play and the analytics back that up. We’ll see what happens.

No worries. Hoping the analytics are correct and the Pens bomb out in the first round for the third straight year.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Even though the Caps toyed with the Islanders during that three game set I’ll take the Bruins. At least those games will be entertaining. Watching the Islanders play hockey is like watching paint dry and I’m so tired hearing about Barry Trotz.

 

[trick9]

They need to beat the Bruins now, if not in the 1st round then the 2nd. I don't think Penguins have much of a chance against them as it's one-line team against one-line team and Bergeron has a long history of shutting out Crosby in the Playoffs.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Could have a meaningless game with Boston Tuesday before a playoff matchup

 

[sycamore]

We're totally in Boston's heads. We've beaten them pretty consistently over the last decade and that franchise and
their fanbase really don't believe they can beat us. Its much like the attitude we had towards the Penguins prior to 2018.

(Of course, the real Boston killer was Holtby, who is no longer with us. but don't let the Bruins fans know that).

 

[Calicaps]

We're totally in Boston's heads. We've beaten them pretty consistently over the last decade and that franchise and
their fanbase really don't believe they can beat us. Its much like the attitude we had towards the Penguins prior to 2018.

(Of course, the real Boston killer was Holtby, who is no longer with us. but don't let the Bruins fans know that).

Yeah, I'm not so sure anymore. Holtby was in their heads, but they've taken more than in a few games from us more recently, and some pretty decisively. They have the best tending of the 4 playoff teams and they went to the ECF last year. I wouldn't take them too lightly.

 

[sycamore]

Yeah, I'm not so sure anymore. Holtby was in their heads, but they've taken more than in a few games from us more recently, and some pretty decisively. They have the best tending of the 4 playoff teams and they went to the ECF last year. I wouldn't take them too lightly.

I'm not taking them lightly, at all, but we are absolutely in their heads, no question about it. Go check their boards, the fans are terrified of playing us, even without Holtby.

And that just makes them an easier opponent. Think how many times the Caps had a superior team to the Pens and still lost because of the psychological dimension.

 

[Calicaps]

I'm not taking them lightly, at all, but we are absolutely in their heads, no question about it. Go check their boards, the fans are terrified of playing us, even without Holtby.

And that just makes them an easier opponent. Think how many times the Caps had a superior team to the Pens and still lost because of the psychological dimension.

That we're in the fans heads is means nothing as far as the actual team, though.