FORWARD
Colin White will be the wild card. If he has another bad season, I doubt the Senators protect him. I am going to assume he bounces back and earns himself a spot. If he is unprotected, I could see Seattle selecting him with the hopes that a change of scenery will allow him to grow into the player he was projected as leading into the 2015 draft.
There are rumors that the Senators and Connor Brown are working on a long term contract. I am skeptical about the Senators re-signing a UFA, but for the sake of this exercise, I will assume they get it done. Which means, Brown will certainly take up a protection spot.
Drake Batherson is a borderline blue chip prospect. He has started slow, but become a star in every league he has played in. I'm fairly confident that even if he doesn't peak next season, it will be a no brainer to protect him.
I'm also assuming that we acquire a good young or star player at the draft in a similar deal to the one we made for Bobby Ryan back in 2013.
Brady Tkachuk is self explanatory.
Assuming Colin White makes the list, I would put our for sure list up front at:
-Brady Tkachuk
-Colin White
-Drake Batherson
-Connor Brown
-Unnamed Star Player
That would leave two more spots to be divided between:
-Logan Brown
-Rudolfs Balcers
-Vitali Abramov
-Anthony Duclair
-Filip Chlapik
I don't think we will use a spot on Duclair. He will only have 1 year of team control remaining, and I do not think we're going long term with him.
Tierney will be gone before then. Either traded this summer, at the deadline, or allowed to walk as a UFA.
Meaning, I think we protect the two most promising young players out of Brown, Balcers, Abramov, and Chlapik.
Assuming Brown is protected, up front, Seattle will have their choice of a good young B prospect, or Anthony Duclair.
DEFENSE
On defense, I think we protect Chabot, Wolanin, and Zaitsev.
Jaros and Lajoie would be the two notable unprotected names. Jaros was barely used by DJ Smith this past season. Lajoie projects to maybe be a bottom pairing guy in the NHL.
Protecting Zaitsev will raise a few eyebrows, but it is pretty clear that this organization sees him as a player. Otherwise, they wouldn't have acquired his long term contract. It's Cody Ceci all over again in terms of having a defender who is used in the role of a difference maker by the coaching staff, praised by the GM, but dogged by fans and advanced stats guys. I think the Senators protect him. If he goes unprotected, I think Seattle would consider taking him. He would only have three years remaining on his contract, so he wouldn't have the same suffocating term that he had when Toronto tried to deal him and we were the only serious taker.
Mark Borowiecki would be another notable unprotected defenseman. If Seattle takes Borowiecki, I'd imagine it would be highly motivated by his strong leadership and work ethic. On paper, we'd have more valuable young players unprotected.
Brannstrom and Zub are both exempt from selection. This will be huge for the Senators, because in a best case scenario those two players are going to be pivotal parts of the top 6 defense of the team as soon as this season.
GOALTENDING
It's way too early to figure this out. So much is going to change in one year. The goalie exposure requirements are easier to meet than with other positions, because the goalie we expose can be an RFA. They do not have to have outstanding term, or NHL experience.
Unless we go out and acquire a long term solution in net this summer, we simply protect the most promising of Hogberg, Daccord, or Gustavsson.
CONCLUSION
Seattle might select Anthony Duclair. He will only have 1 year of team control remaining, but Seattle will be in a good position to extend him to a mid-term contract. This will give them a young top 6 forward who the Senators at that point refused to commit to. In the short term, this could be a huge win for Seattle. They'd add an exciting goal scorer who is in his prime who is undervalued based on the up and downs he had early on in his career.
Alternatively, Seattle might get a strong goalie prospect if two of the Senators three young goalies take steps forward. The Senators can only protect one, and there isn't much purpose in trading one to hedge against the draft, which will just result in the Senators losing more than one piece.
I think it is less likely that Seattle take one of our exposed young forward prospects or defensemen. Unless the Senators inexplicably expose Logan Brown, they won't be the best options. The only way Seattle takes one is if they don't want to extend Duclair long term, and if there are better goalie options from multiple other teams.