Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Thread Vol. 1

[Magua]

I don't know how tough he is, but Ayrton Martino looks like a slam dunk first rounder in this draft to me. VIRTUOSO.

On the older side of the class but looks to be a bit of a late bloomer (late round OHL pick, Clarkson commit). Top scorer in the OJHL as a young 17 year old (one of the most productive u18 seasons in years in that league), carried his team to OT in the GMG at the WJAC last year, missed 15 games this year and still led his club in scoring. One of the best draft year seasons ever in the USHL - assist per game, nearly 40% ES involvement and ~46% overall. That's big time in that league and it was his first year.

Super smart, skilled, and moves well. Puck just follows him around out there. Clarkson hasn't produced a star since Randy Jones, but I think I'd bet on this kid.

I know Scouching just came out with a report on him, but I didn't see it yet. I did watch a game of Martino's though since this post, and you're right: obvious 1st round skill as a complimentary scorer/playmaker. He's on the small side -- and if I put on my HockeyGuy™ cap, he does play small too -- but it's not even like he's not a good skater. Sillinger is a wing at the pro level, can't skate nearly as well, and is quite low effort himself defensively and in battles.......and he's a consensus top 15 pick, whereas Martino is rated in the 2nd range. I'm sure playing almost half the game at forward alters your compete consistency, but I didn't even find Martino's defense that bad from a skating/stick/positioning standpoint. If I had a complaint, it was that he seemed noticeably reluctant to engage physically or along the boards, which doesn't bode well for the playoffs!

Not usually my type, but I kinda like this kid. The skating is awkward, but he gets around the ice well and has a lot of range. Probably going to go higher than I'd take him though (The BIG defensemen narrative is only going to get louder as the season undwinds). For a guy who was playing 2nd (3rd?4th?) fiddle to Morrow at SSM, he put up quite the offensive season (just outside of the top 10 league-wide) after joining the team mid-season. Had a lot on the PP and I doubt he's a PP guy at the next level, but his ES production is pretty good also. The numbers back up his defensive impact also so that is nice to see.

I like Buium too. You can tell he has a clue offensively -- or just in general. In the game I saw, anytime the puck went to him in the o-zone, he'd have surprising vision, especially below the dots. If he had more to his skating, he's a 1st. But if he's a ~2nd-3rd rounder, I'd bet on that profile.

I watched the available Morrow game too. Watched the Scouching report afterwards, and he basically confirmed all my thoughts in a larger sample. His puck skills -- in a 6'2 right-handed body yet -- immediately stood out as being among the best in the class. Great body deception too. He could walk prep schoolers at will. I like his feet and crossovers, would like a bit more in the stride, especially if he is trying to beat forecheckers and guys at the point as often as he does. Seems projectable though. But he's a really intelligent passer too, breakouts and cycle. Like there is big time offensive potential.

It's just that prep hockey is a f***ing mess to evaluate. I can't speak to his small USHL sample other than it doesn't jump out box score watching. It shouldn't matter in small sample, but sometimes it is a sign with these high school guys. It's just easier when there's no doubt. I thought he had some good gaps, but he had to play almost no defense because of the competition. I didn't think his d-zone urgency/compete was particularly good when required, and Scouching confirmed I'm maybe not out to lunch there. Raw talent is without question though.

If you could trade down for Morrow or Heimosalmi, which would you prefer? I have a hunch the Flyers wouldn't take Martino or Morrow though. I still really like Coronato out of the USHL crop; don't know if you feel differently.

 

[FLYguy3911]

f you could trade down for Morrow or Heimosalmi, which would you prefer? I have a hunch the Flyers wouldn't take Martino or Morrow though. I still really like Coronato out of the USHL crop; don't know if you feel differently.

I've seen a lot more of Heimosalmi than Morrow so I shouldn't speak too confidently, but that seems like a case of ceiling vs. floor. I'd probably bet on Morrow, but you could probably talk me into Heimosalmi. Tbh, the Flyers need ceiling guys and floor guys on the right side.

I think I've said before, but that older high school player with little to no Junior experience is the riskiest demographic in the draft. I don't hold the production against him too much. It was only six games and it's really hard to establish yourself mid-season- against Chicago in the playoff no less. He played behind their big minutes pair (Jack Peart another MN HS kid in that late 1-early 2 range). But no doubt you'd rather see it than not. Jackson LaCombe went in the early second round two years ago and jumped right from SSM onto Minnesota's top pair as a freshman and has performed pretty well, so there is precedent.

He really did remind me of McAvoy in the way he operated. McAvoy never looks like he is moving fast, but he has these powerful 45 degree cuts in traffic that he pairs with slick hands and playmaking skills. Obviously don't expect that outcome, but if you want to dream... I need to see some of his USHL games though. I read he had the best shot differentials on the team so that is encouraging. And he did play four years in Minnesota so I wouldn't count him out yet.

Heimosalmi seems to be in that Nils Lundkvist/Topi Niemela mold. Maybe somewhere in between. Just the prototypical modern day transition defenseman. It's pretty easy to see him being a regular NHL defenseman, maybe even second pair, but probably has no where near the star potential of Morrow. His junior production was nothing special. 10% involvement on ES goals. More PP points than ES points. So he didn't exactly establish himself as a guy too good for Junior, but he passes the eye test for sure. I wonder how much the u18s will push him up the board. McKenzie didn't even have him in his top 100 before the tournament and I just can't remember many Finnish defensemen without pro experience going very high in the draft. Tuomisto (also from Assat) went early second round two years ago but he was a big, high scoring kid going the college route. Joni Jurmo went in the third round last year. Hell even Niemela went in the third round. I think he'll overshoot that, but I could see his range all over the place.

I have to circle back on the Chicago kids so I don't have a strong opinion on Coronato. Obviously the numbers are fantastic. Hopefully I can get full games (might have to splurge on HockeyTV though). That whole team is filled with prospects. I was listening to an interview with one of their executives and they were saying Samoskevich is the most skilled guy on the team by far. The numbers don't check out but Doan's son is a re-entry. Jason Blake’s kid is a good prospect too. Jack Bar is another RHD in that 2nd-3rd round range. Pretty intriguing. Big RH shot with some skill and mobility but got no PP time. Ryan Ufko was their #1 guy but he kinda looks like JAG. Lukas Gustafsson was buried in the lineup but will probably be their top guy next year so he could be a late round guy to get a year ahead of.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I have to circle back on the Chicago kids so I don't have a strong opinion on Coronato. Obviously the numbers are fantastic. Hopefully I can get full games (might have to splurge on HockeyTV though). That whole team is filled with prospects. I was listening to an interview with one of their executives and they were saying Samoskevich is the most skilled guy on the team by far. The numbers don't check out but Doan's son is a re-entry. Jason Blake’s kid is a good prospect too. Jack Bar is another RHD in that 2nd-3rd round range. Pretty intriguing. Big RH shot with some skill and mobility but got no PP time. Ryan Ufko was their #1 guy but he kinda looks like JAG. Lukas Gustafsson was buried in the lineup but will probably be their top guy next year so he could be a late round guy to get a year ahead of.

That pimp on the Prospects Board has convinced me on Samoskevich, and now I am going to be pissed if we don't find a way to take him. After we nab L'Heureux, obviously, so we can be more like the Isles.

 

[macleish1974]

That pimp on the Prospects Board has convinced me on Samoskevich, and now I am going to be pissed if we don't find a way to take him. After we nab L'Heureux, obviously, so we can be more like the Isles.

What happened to Othmann?

1. Othmanm
2. Klimovich
3. Plankowski
4. Hinds

 

[Striiker]

I just want to know this: who the best realistic guy who is big, strong, tough, mean, and has 40 goal potential.

You know, like Isaac Ratcliffe.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

What happened to Othmann?

1. Othmanm
2. Klimovich
3. Plankowski
4. Hinds

I was being sarcastic. I mean, I do like Samo, but not L'Heureux so much.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I just want to know this: who the best realistic guy who is big, strong, tough, mean, and has 40 goal potential.

You know, like Isaac Ratcliffe.

Samuel Helenius.

 

[macleish1974]

There is one way to judge talent. I think it is valid....... I will assume each junior team has scouts for bantam/midget hockey. I also assume the amateur scouts are fairly competent..... Compare the bantam/midget drafts to Central Scouting NHL draft prospects 2-3 years later and see who was drafted high in the bantam/midget and was still high in CSS and also see who the risers were from the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the bantam/midget drafts. Though it is amazing how many 1st rounders in bantam/midget drafts fall mightily.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Prokhor Poltapov should be a second round target. He's on the All-Hands team in this draft. He's battling Danila Klimovich for the Dangles/60 title. He's a rush demon with a some power in his game to put defenders on his back. He's one of the more individually skilled players in the draft.





He's poor defensively though.

 

[Magua]

Samoskevich feels like an incredibly similar player to Martino. Strengths, weaknesses, build, old for the class. Maybe Martino skates a tad quicker? Better playmaker? If he has a touch more skill, it's not drastic. Visually, they are strikingly similar. Samoskevich played more shifts than not with Coronato (center) in the game I saw, though seemingly PP2, whereas Martino is the top player on his team. 9 less minutes though in a regulation game.

Watched a game of Poltapov too. Honestly, slick as his hands may be, he has some pro qualities they don't: namely he isn't shy about playing through contact and along the wall. Slick edges, even if he's not as good straight line. He didn't dipsy doodle as much as you'd think and seemed quite intelligent positionally. Do wish he had a little more urgency. If there's 1 intangible I've learned to not underestimate, it's urgency. 1 game scouting is tough. MHL games -- tough to scout to begin with -- are actually searchable on YouTube, if I put in a slight amount of effort.

 

[IronMarshal]

I think these are interesting opposite takes on Simon Edvinsson.

Jack Han claim that Edvinsson has skating problems because of his weight being centered rather than loaded on one leg. This will cause him to be unable to to take one big lunge to close the gap from the dot to the boards in pursuit of a puck carrier.

Mark Edwards’ Black Book, which has pre-released writeups on Beniers and Edvinsson, says that Edvinsson has an “elite base” and that he can “effortlessly shift his weight from his centerline into the necessary direction gain significant power.” The Black Book does add that Edvinsson can be “thrown off balance and knocked to the ice rather easily against me” despite his excellent mechanics. The Black Book liked how Edvisson played a much more engaged game against men. They said the difference is like Jake Sanderson’s second half of his draft year surge. According to the Black Book, Edvinsson’s strength is carrying the puck up ice using his vision, speed, hands and spatial awareness to attack the neutral zone and enter the offensive zone. Han doesn’t think that Edvinsson has much offensive upside.

Both Han and the Black Book say that Edvinsson will take time to develop. I think Han thinks it will take longer, and something to be considered when looking at Han’s take is that he is not a big believer in big bodied defenseman who dominate Juniors because they get away with stuff because of their size, and players whose offensive growth resembles that of Edvinsson. Both the Black Book and Han criticized Edvinsson’s crossovers as well.

 

[Magua]

I'm no skating coach, but Edvinsson looks like a gazelle, with and without the puck. Quick twitch too at his size. But it's a stretch to say he dominated juniors. Yet, he also has fantastic hands for a player his size. He's also a hot mess passing pucks, which seems an upstairs thing......but he's not incapable either. But he also has incredible defensive abilities and maturity -- you can probably fall back on that for a floor. He's a unique case study this draft. There will be teams who think he's an all-around stud and teams who are gun shy. I lean towards both being right. Higher variance Myers?

The Black Book always loves their athletic BIG BOYS -- see: Ratcliffe (#13) as the next great power forward -- so I take that into account.

 

[hystyk1921]

I don't see Voracek or Marchand - I see what no one else sees. You and I, we're gonna live forever.

Zachary l'heureux skating is awful, Marchand can actually finish a dangle using speed this kid is slow and too risky to keep drafting players with skating issues it’s not working out!!

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Zachary l'heureux skating is awful, Marchand can actually finish a dangle using speed this kid is slow and too risky to keep drafting players with skating issues it’s not working out!!

Sounds good to me!!!

 

[Appleyard]

Final 2021 NHL Draft Rankings - Smaht Scouting

Final rankings with input from myself.

 

[Rebels57]

Final 2021 NHL Draft Rankings - Smaht Scouting

Final rankings with input from myself.

Great stuff as always. Any guys you think we should be targetting around 13? Don't love the players in that range that I have seen so far.

 

[Appleyard]

Great stuff as always. Any guys you think we should be targetting around 13? Don't love the players in that range that I have seen so far.

If Lysell falls then him.

Kent Johnson is very interesting.

Could swing for the moon with Raty.

McTavish...

there are some interesting fwds that could be there. All have their pitfalls. And dont think any have good odds of being stars. But several who could well be a good 1st liner.

 

[CutOnDime97]

My god.

Someone on the Prospects board posted Pronman's 2017 rankings.

Post: Corey Pronman’s final top 151

 

[FLYguy3911]

He did have Ratcliffe 62. Credit where credit's due.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

He did have Ratcliffe 62. Credit where credit's due.

But didn’t he give him a generational grade in strength that year though?

 

[FLYguy3911]

But didn’t he give him a generational grade in strength that year though?

I think he only introduced that last year. It was gone in his most recent rankings.

 

[Chinatown88]

But didn’t he give him a generational grade in strength that year though?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

If Lysell falls then him.

Kent Johnson is very interesting.

Could swing for the moon with Raty.

McTavish...

there are some interesting fwds that could be there. All have their pitfalls. And dont think any have good odds of being stars. But several who could well be a good 1st liner.

I'm curious: How do you see that Raty would be "swing[ing] for the moon"?

His production is nothing special and doesn't indicate a huge NHL ceiling. I've never watched him and come away with the impression of, "Boy, now that guy could be an NHL superstar."

I would contend that his NHL ceiling is a "pretty good" player, but that he also carries a substantial likelihood of being mediocre. When you add the info that he lost his passion for the game and was thinking of quitting at one point, that's too many red flags to be outweighed by what I think is a much more limited ceiling than "the moon."

 

[IronMarshal]

I have recently been watching Logan Stankoven, and wow, I am impressed. The kid is a high motor, shifty speedster with a cannon shot and lightening release. If you wanted to shoot for the moon in this crazy draft year, he should be high on the list. My only concern with him is that he is pretty well maxed out physically at 5'8 170 and 18 years old. There is not much growth there, and so what you see is probably what you get. Not that that is a bad thing. What I see is very good, potentially great, but there is the size. If you were a Caulfield fan, you cannot not like this kid. If you like Brink, you should love this kid. I don't think I would mind him at 13. If I were the GM, I might be scared off by the size, but man is he intriguing. I like him better than Lysell. If he was a six footer, he would be in competition with Beniers, Eklund, and Guenther for the top forward spot. Count me as a fan.

 

[FLYguy3911]

He might make it to the second round, so if you love him trade back.