2021 NHL Draft Lottery - June 2nd 2021 4:00 p.m. PT/7:00 p.m. ET

Which pick will the Kraken receive?


  • Total voters
    30
  • Poll closed .

RainyCityHockey

Registered User
Dec 24, 2019
4,231
2,944
Germany
Here we are, at another first for the Kraken.
This time around it will be the first NHL Draft lottery the Seattle Kraken will participate in.

The Kraken will have the 3rd best odds to win the lottery and are guaranteed a top five pick in this years draft.

Odds:
1st pick: 10.3 %
2nd pick: 10.2 %
3rd pick: 4.7 %
4th pick: 39.3 %
5th pick: 35.6 %

How to watch? NHL Network
When? June 2nd 2021, 4:00 p.m. PT/7:00 p.m. ET/1:00 a.m. CET

BTW: Here's the Tankathon tool to simulate the lottery.
2021 NHL Mock Draft & Simulator | Tankathon

And:
Luke Henman also has a couple of words for you.
 
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ultradan

hello fellow kids
Mar 21, 2010
78
25
i'd love to see us move up to 1st, but realistically i see us picking 4th this year
 

Dog

Arf! Arf! Arf!
Feb 9, 2016
2,394
939
Wasteland
Moving down to either 4th or 5th. Well went with 5th based on expect to see a team moving up. If had to guess it will be California based team moving up. If you combine the three teams it's over 24% chance at 1st and almost 30% chance at 2nd. Shocker might happen again.
 
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Frozen

Registered User
Aug 23, 2004
679
27
I want to believe in some luck and get the 2nd pick, even though my head says keeping the 3rd pick would be decent already.

Looking at the odds, it's 75% chance to be outside of top 3 pick.
 

gstommylee

Registered User
Jan 31, 2012
14,477
2,782
I want to believe in some luck and get the 2nd pick, even though my head says keeping the 3rd pick would be decent already.

Looking at the odds, it's 75% chance to be outside of top 3 pick.

Seattle is unlikely to remain at the 3rd pick. They either move up or drop.
 

StarterHart

Waffle
Feb 2, 2018
1,250
3,479
Arlington, WA
Seattle is unlikely to remain at the 3rd pick. They either move up or drop.

Yep, the chances of both Buffalo AND Anaheim winning the lottery are far lower than either Seattle winning one of the spots, or more likely being won by at least 1 team at 4-16. I went with 4th on the poll.

Here's how my first sim went:

SSWCZHc.png
 
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gstommylee

Registered User
Jan 31, 2012
14,477
2,782
Yep, the chances of both Buffalo AND Anaheim winning the lottery are far lower than either Seattle winning one of the spots, or more likely being won by at least 1 team at 4-16. I went with 4th on the poll.

Here's how my first sim went:

SSWCZHc.png

Odds are against buffalo actually winning it though based on recent trends.
 

Frozen

Registered User
Aug 23, 2004
679
27
Odds are against buffalo actually winning it though based on recent trends.
It's not just the trends. It's 83.4% chance someone else wins it. While Buffalo has the highest chance to win it out of all teams, it's still only 16.6% chance. Five out of six times it's someone else, not Buffalo.

There's always good luck and bad luck involved when doing draws, depending on perspective.

Here's one still hoping we get lucky and pull 2nd or 3rd.

Buffalo as a franchise needs help. First overall, even this year, would be one step that can help them. I do think they need much bigger help deeper down the team and management or recent culture, which seems to be a black hole for many players.
 

Fistfullofbeer

Moderator
May 9, 2011
30,273
8,964
Whidbey Island, WA
I did 11 sims before Seattle moved any higher than 4. All of my first 10 picks were 4 or 5. Ironically I had San Jose, Vancouver, Detroit move into the top-2 multiple times before that happened. Its really going to be all luck.
 

gstommylee

Registered User
Jan 31, 2012
14,477
2,782
It's not just the trends. It's 83.4% chance someone else wins it. While Buffalo has the highest chance to win it out of all teams, it's still only 16.6% chance. Five out of six times it's someone else, not Buffalo.

There's always good luck and bad luck involved when doing draws, depending on perspective.

Here's one still hoping we get lucky and pull 2nd or 3rd.

Buffalo as a franchise needs help. First overall, even this year, would be one step that can help them. I do think they need much bigger help deeper down the team and management or recent culture, which seems to be a black hole for many players.

Odds are seriously against us staying with the 3rd pick. If we get 3rd pick the buffalo gets first anahiem gets 2nd.
 

gstommylee

Registered User
Jan 31, 2012
14,477
2,782
I did 11 sims before Seattle moved any higher than 4. All of my first 10 picks were 4 or 5. Ironically I had San Jose, Vancouver, Detroit move into the top-2 multiple times before that happened. Its really going to be all luck.

I had the blue jackets getting the first round pick after running it several times. Seattle was either 2nd 4th or 5th.
 

Frozen

Registered User
Aug 23, 2004
679
27
I did just one sim for the fun of it.

1. Chicago (+11!)
2. Seattle
3. Buffalo
4. Anaheim
5. New Jersey

Obviously very unlikely, but why not. I'm sure Chicago wouldn't mind either.

Going to be fun to see how things go in real life. All these things around the team add up slowly and it's getting more real to having a team with actual players soon, not to mention the first season just keeps getting closer.
 

Lunatik

Registered User
Oct 12, 2012
56,235
8,367
I hit Seattle #1 on my first try, took about a dozen more before hitting them #1 again (I was also seeing how many before Calgary got #1). Then following that I hit 3 in a row with Seattle #2, then them back to #1. So I quit, Flames have no chance but I couldn't jinx the Kraken any further :laugh:
 

tank44

Registered User
Feb 1, 2012
640
165
Seattle, WA
There isn't really a stud #1 this year and a mass group of 5 of so guys that are in the mix for the top tier. I'd rather win the lottery next year (if we're in the lottery)
 
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gstommylee

Registered User
Jan 31, 2012
14,477
2,782
There isn't really a stud #1 this year and a mass group of 5 of so guys that are in the mix for the top tier. I'd rather win the lottery next year (if we're in the lottery)

odds are against that we would be a top 11 in the lottery next year. Pacific division is weak and we could end up being a possible playoff team.
 

Lunatik

Registered User
Oct 12, 2012
56,235
8,367
There isn't really a stud #1 this year and a mass group of 5 of so guys that are in the mix for the top tier. I'd rather win the lottery next year (if we're in the lottery)
to be fair these guys haven't been scouted much less due to the pandemic, so there may be a #1 stud but we don't have enough info
 

Fistfullofbeer

Moderator
May 9, 2011
30,273
8,964
Whidbey Island, WA
to be fair these guys haven't been scouted much less due to the pandemic, so there may be a #1 stud but we don't have enough info
Right. The scouting is one issue. The other is how the lack of a regular season impacts player development at this age. It is very likely that a gem is to be found in the late 1st round or even later rounds once the kids get more time to play next season and develop.
 
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StarterHart

Waffle
Feb 2, 2018
1,250
3,479
Arlington, WA
Right. The scouting is one issue. The other is how the lack of a regular season impacts player development at this age. It is very likely that a gem is to be found in the late 1st round or even later rounds once the kids get more time to play next season and develop.

Yep, just look at the OHL. 2 cancelled seasons. That's a huge chunk of prospects who have had their development stalled.
 

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