2020 Roster Speculation Part 3: Off-season Edition

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elchud

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Nov 1, 2015
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One team not mentioned for LHD/backup goalie is Detroit.

Nemeth/Bernier
for
Miller/Hutton/Asplund/2022 3rd

Detroit has Greiss, and can mess around with Hutton/Pickard hoping to get the 1st overall next year. Bernier played well last year, and its a contract year, he is as good a 1B as I think we can hope to get in a trade.

Nemeth as 3rd pair LHD maybe with Jokiharju. Had a down year with detroit but isn't too far removed from some decent Colorado years.

Ditch Miller and the two year contract, and Hutton. Hutton has negative value, nobody wants the 2 year Miller contract. Asplund...i hate to say it but I dont see a future for him in Buffalo. Eakin has 2 year deal, lazar/girgs on 4th line for multiyear, and this is asplunds last year of waivers, with mitts and ruotsalainen also in the mix next year.
 

m0pe

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Feb 24, 2020
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Gurianov just signed for @2.55m for two years. Think we can get Olofsson to sign for that?

Kubalik's deal is a lot better of a comparable I imagine.

Would be at least close to 1m more per year I think.
 
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Blitz

Let's Go B-U-F-F-A-L-O!!!
Dec 14, 2009
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As someone that has both defended Risto and advocated for trading him, I find multiple frustrating aspects with the Risto narrative:
  • Anyone that seriously studies analytics in hockey will quickly come to the conclusion that defensmen very rarely drive team-based impacts unless they're elite (e.g. Hedman, Josi, etc). That goes for the good and the bad players, it's why Bogo can go from a 42 xG% with us to a 52 xG% with the Bolts.
  • The opinion about Risto has been stated many many times. What's the point of repeating it over and over again? We get it, many people think the hockey team would be better without him, the opinion and reasons behind it has been stated (over hundreds of times), maybe it's time to move on.
  • Here's the ironic thing about his play last year, it mirrored the Sabres season. Here is the team's 5-game rolling average of xG differential:

View attachment 373836

Risto's analytics actually closely matched the team's performance. The analytics community would have you believe he drove these results. It's just not true, there are three well defined valleys here that are easily explained by the following events (obviously there are many factors, but these are the big ones at 5v5):
  • Beginning of the season up to game #20ish - the team was adjusting to Krueger
  • After game #40 - Olofsson & Skinner injuries
  • After game #60 - Eichel injury
Did he drive poor results at times? Absolutely, everyone did. But I think his team impacts are greatly exaggerated.

Where the hell have you been this whole time?!?

Perfectly reasoned & explained. Thank-you.
 

Dubi Doo

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Aug 27, 2008
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Scanning through the line-up this is what I'm hoping for at forward:

Skinner-Eichel-XXX
This line can drive possession. They can start in all three zones, and have an impact. They don't need to be coddled defensively due to Jack's elite ability to transition the puck up the ice. I'd like to see a solid two-way player on the RW (perhaps Reinhart fits better here), but I'm not sure we have that at the moment. Cozens and Asplund are possibilities, but may not be ready.
XXX is open for competition (Cozens, Thompson, Mitts, Asplund, Hopefully Kahun, etc...)

Hall-Staal-Reinhart
This is another line that can drive possession. They don't need to be coddled. Staal is good enough defensively. Hall is a beast in the transition game, and also a good two-way player. Reinhart, even though I thought he had a down year last year in regards to his two-way play, can be an elite two-way winger.

Olofsson-Eakins-XXX
This line will need to be coddled. They should be fed heavy o-zone starts. I'd like Kahun on the wing here. His playmaking ability would be a nice addition to this line. Fingers crossed he's re-signed.

I like the idea of Olofsson providing some scoring depth in the bottom six while also being fed top PP minutes. Hopefully Eakins can do well in a coddled scoring depth role. I haven't watched much of him, but many posters I trust are not impressed with the signing. Hopefully he proves people wrong, and can be competent in his role.
XXX is open for competition (Cozens, Thompson, Mitts, Asplund, Hopefully Kahun, etc...)

Girgs-Lazar-Okposo
Heavy D-zone starts. Hopefully Lazar can fill-in well for Larsson. I'm still a bit perplexed they let go of a center who can play tough defensive minutes and tilt the ice in our favor.
 
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sufferer

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Dec 6, 2017
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Skinner - Eichel - Okposo
Hall - Girgensons - Reinhart
Olofsson - Staal - Cozens
Rieder - Eakin - Thompson/Lazar

This lineup may be rather unusual, but I like the Skinner-Eichel, Hall-Reinhart, and Staal-Olofsson/Cozens pairings. I also like the idea of spreading the talent in the top-9 without sacrificing overall utility. With Larsson gone, there's no replicating an effective shutdown line with insane defensive usage, so I'll just bank on the top-9 winning their matchups and the fourth line providing energy when needed. Okposo and Skinner can puckhound for Eichel, Girgensons can skate with Hall (for the most part), Staal can mentor Cozens, etc. Decent amount of possibilities, I'm excited.
 

jc17

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Jun 14, 2013
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It drives me absolutely crazy when posters bring up other sports, like baseball, as if there are parallels. Hockey will always be the hardest sport for analytics to make an impact on for the reasons you lay out.
The different sports thing is another issue with the twitter contingency.

I see (non buffalo) hockey stats people crap on josh allen, and it's clear they don't even follow football that closely, but hating allen is the official endorsed take of smart people in their minds.

I can't find it but I read an article from pro football focus about qb projections from college to the nfl.

In the end, their formula resulted in a .3 r^2. It just wasn't a strong prediction of future performance, but that part gets ignored
 
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UnleashRasmus

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I still think there is a fundamental flaw on our defense. We need to get rid of Ristolainen and go in a completely different direction. It should be Adam's priority to start the season with at least two of Montour, Ristolainen and Miller gone. Not to mention, if they seriously think Hutton has a pulse, then they need to resign as well. I don't want to see him in a Sabres uniform next year.
 

SundherDome

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Jul 6, 2009
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I still think there is a fundamental flaw on our defense. We need to get rid of Ristolainen and go in a completely different direction. It should be Adam's priority to start the season with at least two of Montour, Ristolainen and Miller gone. Not to mention, if they seriously think Hutton has a pulse, then they need to resign as well. I don't want to see him in a Sabres uniform next year.
Sadly, this is the team you will see iced next year.
 

UnleashRasmus

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Sadly, this is the team you will see iced next year.

I don't trust overpaying Girgensons, Eakin, and hoping Irwin can be an upgrade over what was used at LHD on line 3. It's abysmal. I might be wrong with Reider, so I will keep my mouth shut. His numbers looked a lot better on Calgary. He was a suspect player in Edmonton and Arizona, so I cannot be blamed for not thinking much more than a 14th forward. All in all, this offseason has been terrible. I'm expecting a top 5 pick again.
 

jc17

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I don't trust overpaying Girgensons, Eakin, and hoping Irwin can be an upgrade over what was used at LHD on line 3. It's abysmal. I might be wrong with Reider, so I will keep my mouth shut. His numbers looked a lot better on Calgary. He was a suspect player in Edmonton and Arizona, so I cannot be blamed for not thinking much more than a 14th forward. All in all, this offseason has been terrible. I'm expecting a top 5 pick again.
FWIW

One model has us "improved", of course so did one before 2018. I think the Staal and hall moves outweigh the other moves, according to this person at least
 

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UnleashRasmus

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FWIW

One model has us "improved", of course so did one before 2018. I think the Staal and hall moves outweigh the other moves, according to this person at least

It still doesn't take away from the inability to stop pucks, and that we don't have a strong two way game. It's going to be boom or bust on our top two lines still.
 

sabregoat

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I still think there is a fundamental flaw on our defense. We need to get rid of Ristolainen and go in a completely different direction. It should be Adam's priority to start the season with at least two of Montour, Ristolainen and Miller gone. Not to mention, if they seriously think Hutton has a pulse, then they need to resign as well. I don't want to see him in a Sabres uniform next year.
The issue with this is the expansion draft next year. They have to expose at least 1 defenseman with the 40/70 rule. If you protect Joki and Dahlin, one of Risto or Miller has to be exposed. If they trade both of them, they have to sign someone to a 2 year deal that meets the minimum games played. All of the others are either exempt or UFA's after next season. I wouldnt be surprised to see them extend McCabe and expose him
 
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UnleashRasmus

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The issue with this is the expansion draft next year. They have to expose at least 1 defenseman with the 40/70 rule. If you protect Joki and Dahlin, one of Risto or Miller has to be exposed. If they trade both of them, they have to sign someone to a 2 year deal that meets the minimum games played. All of the others are either exempt or UFA's after next season. I wouldnt be surprised to see them extend McCabe and expose him

I wouldn't protect any of Montour, Ristolainen, Miller or McCabe. Montour could possibly bounce back and show what we gave up to acquire him. I want to see change on this team. We need to move on from Girgensons, Ristolainen, McCabe, and others who have been here longer than 6 years. We're stuck in the stagnant psychosis. I mean in the end of things, letting Larsson walk is a directional change. Though, I will say that Cody Eakin is not the answer. He's easily a worse signing to me than Okposo was at the time. A MONUMENTAL downgrade. Like someone else said, we're trying to cover up the glaring gaps of need, with offense, buying goals. Cody Eakin is really a one dimensional player. Thank god it's at least for 2 seasons and not 4. This team is still on paper the 5th best team in the division. They aren't better than Tampa, Boston, Toronto, Montreal and probably Florida. So sixth. Even Ottawa might be better.
 

BloFan4Life

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Jul 8, 2009
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I wouldn't protect any of Montour, Ristolainen, Miller or McCabe. Montour could possibly bounce back and show what we gave up to acquire him. I want to see change on this team. We need to move on from Girgensons, Ristolainen, McCabe, and others who have been here longer than 6 years. We're stuck in the stagnant psychosis. I mean in the end of things, letting Larsson walk is a directional change. Though, I will say that Cody Eakin is not the answer. He's easily a worse signing to me than Okposo was at the time. A MONUMENTAL downgrade. Like someone else said, we're trying to cover up the glaring gaps of need, with offense, buying goals. Cody Eakin is really a one dimensional player. Thank god it's at least for 2 seasons and not 4. This team is still on paper the 5th best team in the division. They aren't better than Tampa, Boston, Toronto, Montreal and probably Florida. So sixth. Even Ottawa might be better.

Blasphemy.

Really that all that needs to be said.
 

UnleashRasmus

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A
Blasphemy.

Really that all that needs to be said.

At the time that Okposo signed he was coming off a 50 plus point season. He was one of the best players available on the market. I can recall quite a few people that were excited about getting him for under $7,000,000 per season. I'm sorry, for revisionist history and at how terrible a contract that it has become. However, at the time prior to him signing it was seen as a huge boon / upgrade. So you can color it what you want in 2020, but in 2016-17 he was a creme of the crop UFA. I remember being impressed with Tim Murray at the time. Prior to him putting pen to paper no one would be able to fathom an allergic reaction leading to a stroke that caused him to lose basically two seasons.
 
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Fjordy

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Jun 20, 2018
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I don't trust overpaying Girgensons, Eakin, and hoping Irwin can be an upgrade over what was used at LHD on line 3. It's abysmal. I might be wrong with Reider, so I will keep my mouth shut. His numbers looked a lot better on Calgary. He was a suspect player in Edmonton and Arizona, so I cannot be blamed for not thinking much more than a 14th forward. All in all, this offseason has been terrible. I'm expecting a top 5 pick again.
You completely ignore Hall's signings and Staal's trade, and you completely ignore that Adams will find it quite difficult to trade Risto or Montour or Miller due to the current market. Even with Hutton, you have to come up with something and it's very difficult. Girgensons is a good player, Eakin may be statistically good, but again he is not a replacement for Larsson.
 

TehDoak

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FWIW

One model has us "improved", of course so did one before 2018. I think the Staal and hall moves outweigh the other moves, according to this person at least

I don't think anyone doubts we're a better team now than we were at the end of the season. The question is, how bad do you think last years team was and how much better is this years team. If we go 5-4-1 to start last year instead of 8-1-1, we're the 2nd worst team in the NHL.

It still doesn't take away from the inability to stop pucks, and that we don't have a strong two way game. It's going to be boom or bust on our top two lines still.

While it IS better than being boom or bust on one line (which was last year, essentially)

In a holistic sense, if we can add:

30 G to offense
And get a goalie equal to Ullmark who has a .915 SP%, that'd be a net of 15 less GA over 30 games (hutton was .898 last year)

That'd put us at +23 goals at 70 games. Last year that would have put us in the top 10 in goal differential.
 

Jacob582

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Oct 16, 2012
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What do you think of:

Hutton and Montour to Vegas, for Fleury, McNabb and a pick. Vegas retains some salary so we can stay under the cap.
 

Jacob582

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Oct 16, 2012
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I think Vegas laughs at that idea.
Well we know Vegas wanted to trade Fleury. We know they are already above the salary cap with a roster of 21. And we are taking 2 years of Fleury's salary! Buffalo may be the team who laughs at that idea.
 
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