2020 Offseason Ideas

MarkT

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Nov 11, 2017
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I made this post earlier in the main Rumors thread, but I spent a lot of time on it and that thread goes so fast that it disappears quickly. I figure it's a good post to base a discussion on. You don't have to agree with my reasoning, but it's a pretty good list of the players available who might be a good fit for us. If the mods don't like me making a thread for this post then just delete it - that's fine.

Anyway...

I made this same post just after the Dallas series, but I wanted to make an updated version:

Here's how I see our team next season ideally:

LandeskogMacKinnonRantanen
SaadKadriBurakovsky
NichushkinxxxDonskoi
CalvertBellemareCompher
JostO’Connor
BowersKaut
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
I should note, the reason I have Compher on the 4th line and Jost and O'Connor as extras is because I expect a) there to be plenty of injuries this upcoming season and b) I wouldn't be surprised to see one of Donskoi, Compher or Jost traded. The point is all of them are behind (ideally) the two guys we bring in.

I see Bowers and Kaut as midseason call-ups for when injuries hit. Yes, they might both be ready to play in the NHL, but they're both waivers-exempt. I put O'Connor on the roster because he's an ideal 4th liner, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him start in the AHL too.

ToewsMakar
GirardJohnson
GravesCole
xxx
ByramTimmins
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Yes, I think the smart move is to "block" both kids. Force them to outplay a veteran to make the team. Timmins, after his injury in the playoffs, really worries me, and Byram needs to really show he belongs before I hand him a roster spot.

Grubauer
Francouz
xxx/Werner/Miska
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Next I’ll go through each of the needs I identified as xxx above.

TEAM NEEDS

3rd line C

Our current options here are Compher, Jost and Bellemare, and none are good enough to fill that role, especially if Kadri or MacKinnon go down with an injury. What we need here is someone who can anchor a shutdown line and also step up to 2C when needed. I’m hoping that Newhook can fill this role soon, but not next season, and we can’t afford to wait for him.

7th defenseman


I’d basically be looking for an upgrade or at least a replacement for Barberio here. This may end up just being Connauton or even Cole though.

3rd string Goalie

I was convinced Sakic had learned his lesson when we were forced to start the Hamburglar in the playoffs. He signed Francouz and for one glorious season we had great goaltending depth. Then this season comes along and he doesn’t address this position at all, unless he genuinely thought Adam Werner was ready to play in the NHL. It seemed like they realized their mistake too late and made a move for Bibeau, only for him to get hurt. They then had to rely on a deadline deal to get Hutch, and he’s really not very good. So what I want is to have this position filled from the start of the season, and not rely on Werner or Miska to be the guy that gets called up when injuries happen (at least not right away).
___________________________________________________________________________

Okay, so now that the justifications are out of the way, let’s look at our options (ages as of Jan 1 2021):

3rd line C

1. Phillip Danault (27, MTL, 3.083m x 1 year)
He’s ideal except for two things. First, I doubt Montreal would move him unless we offered a lot. Second, he probably won’t re-sign with us unless he’s going to be in our top 6. He’s on record not wanting to be a 3rd line center and who can blame him? He’s awesome.

2. Anthony Cirelli (23, TBL, RFA)
There’s no way Tampa trades him, so we’re talking offer sheets here. This is totally a fantasy scenario, but I think he’s going to be a great player and I’d give up a lot for him.

3. Erik Haula (29, FLA, UFA)
The first UFA on this list, he could be productive at 3C but isn’t really suited to that shutdown role. Coming off a rough season so might not be too overpriced.

4. Andrew Copp (26, WPG, 2.28m x 1 year to RFA)
Another guy I doubt is available, but we have a Nikita Zadorov and Ian Cole to potentially offer, and Winnipeg needs defense. He was primarily used on the wing by the Jets, but he actually seemed to play his best hockey at center. He could be a long-term 3C for us if we got him.

5. Jared McCann (24, PIT, 2.94m x 2)
I keep hearing McCann is available, but the issue is if he were really a good 3C he wouldn't be available. Probably belongs on the first list, to be honest. Could maybe split the center duties with Compher.

6. Casey Cizikas (29, NYI, 3.35m x 1 year)
I honestly see no reason he’d even be available, but if the Islanders feel the need to shed salary, then 3.35m is a lot to pay for a 4th line center. But I personally feel he’s wasted in that role and would be a great shutdown 3C for us.

7. Tyler Johnson (30, TBL, 5m x 4)

Tampa is getting desperate to get rid of him, so he's becoming more enticing to me. Tampa would need to retain salary though.

8. Derek Stepan (30, ARI, 6.5m x 1 year)

Basically, if we want to go the Bonino or Stastny route and we strike out on the deals, he’s the fallback option. Definitely not a full-time top 6 center any more, but would be fine in this role for one year. Could probably be had for very cheap or even free given how Arizona seems to want to shed salary.

11. Carl Soderberg (35, ARI, UFA)
Hey, if all else fails, why not bring big ol' Carl back for another go? He played well in Arizona and could man that 3C position for us for a year in a pinch.

12. Yanni Gourde (29, TBL, 5.166m x 5)
His contract and NTC scare me even more than Johnson's. If Tampa's willing to retain on him though I'd take him in a heartbeat.

13. Jordan Weal (28, MTL, 1.4m x 1 year)
This one is a stretch, but that’s why he’s near the bottom of the list. The big advantage here is he’d be cheap to both acquire and pay. The disadvantage is he may not actually be any better than Bellemare, Compher or Jost as the 3C.

Other options I don't think we should target: Alexander Kerfoot, Alex Steen, Alex Galchenyuk, Derick Brassard, Brandon Sutter

7th Defenseman

1. Slater Koekkoek (26, CHI, UFA)
I was very surprised when they didn't qualify him because he put up some amazing possession numbers this year in a limited role. I think he could be a really solid addition for us, especially if we move on from Cole and/or Zadorov

2. Jan Rutta (30, TBL, UFA)
Just had a good run in the playoffs and could be a good option for us as a solid #6.

3. Roland McKeown (24, CAR, RFA)
From @Richard88: He's a 24 year old RHS Dman who was a big piece of the AHL's best PK this season. He's stuck in Carolina's depth chart and shouldn't cost too much to acquire (maybe a late round pick or prospect swap) or resign ($700k 1 way deal probably gets it done).

3rd String Goalie

1. Anthony Stolarz (26, ANA, 750k x 1 year – AHL SV% .922)
If Ryan Miller comes back for one more year, Anaheim might be willing to move him.

2. Michael Hutchinson (30, COL – Average AHL SV% since 2019 .913)
He'd be better the nothing.
____________________________________________________

How to make this all work

We can make the cap space ;)
 
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MarkT

Heretic
Nov 11, 2017
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Your post are to HF what Castro’s speeches are to the UN. Very long. :laugh:

giphy.gif
 

John Mandalorian

2022 Avs: The First Dance
Nov 29, 2018
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Your post are to HF what Castro’s speeches are to the UN. Very long. :laugh:

I appreciate the effort and care he put into this. A lot of times we loosely refer to “other options” when we don’t like a trade or signing. This goes to a great length to spell out the “other options.” Compliments to him for “putting it in writing.”
 
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MarkT

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Nov 11, 2017
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Try adding a summary. You put a lot of though and effort in that post and you have interesting things to say. Lazies like me don’t read long posts.

TEAM NEEDS
  • 3rd line C
  • 7th defenseman
  • 3rd string Goalie

3rd line C
  1. Phillip Danault (27, MTL, 3.083m x 1 year)
  2. Anthony Cirelli (23, TBL, RFA)
  3. Erik Haula (29, FLA, UFA)
  4. Andrew Copp (26, WPG, 2.28m x 1 year to RFA)
  5. Jared McCann (24, PIT, 2.94m x 2)
  6. Casey Cizikas (29, NYI, 3.35m x 1 year)
  7. Derek Stepan (30, ARI, 6.5m x 1 year)
  8. Carl Soderberg (35, ARI, UFA)
  9. Tyler Johnson (30, TBL, 5m x 4)
  10. Yanni Gourde (29, TBL, 5.166m x 5)
  11. Jordan Weal (28, MTL, 1.4m x 1 year)
Other options I don't think we should target: Alexander Kerfoot, Alex Steen, Alex Galchenyuk, Derick Brassard, Brandon Sutter

7th Defenseman
  1. Slater Koekkoek (26, CHI, RFA)
  2. Jan Rutta (30, TBL, UFA)
  3. Roland McKeown (24, CAR, RFA)
3rd String Goalie
  1. Anthony Stolarz (26, ANA, 750k x 1 year – AHL SV% .922)
  2. Michael Hutchinson (30, COL – Average AHL SV% since 2019 .913)
 
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Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
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I could see a Zadorov for Copp trade. That would give us a cheap 3C for a year who's in the mould of a center version of Calvert, and then we'd have the option of resigning him next offseason depending on how things go. Alternatively just get some picks back for Zadorov; for example an LAK fans on the trade boards thread offered VAN 2nd + LAK 4th (#50 + #96) which I'd be inclined to accept.

Any of the top 8 3C options would be fine by me, except for McCann I guess because Pittsburgh are clearly keeping him. I'd also have Gourde in that top 8 as well; there's a chance Tampa considers a slight bit of retention to make it happen in which case it would be an attractive addition.

I'm surprised that you have Ehlers so high and Palat so low. Only one of those teams is a motivated seller, which should put Palat higher than Ehlers. Killorn should also be much higher, due to his ideal term and the fact that Tampa are motivated sellers.

In general I would have 3C as the highest priority addition, followed by 2RD, and then 2LW.

1. 3c
2. 2 RHD
3. 2LW

7D is obviously a need but I don't bother listing it as it's just something that needs to get done. A 3rd goalie should be an addition as well, but I can see Sakic being patient again.
 

MarkT

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Nov 11, 2017
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I could see a Zadorov for Copp trade. That would give us a cheap 3C for a year who's in the mould of a center version of Calvert, and then we'd have the option of resigning him next offseason depending on how things go. Alternatively just get some picks back for Zadorov; for example an LAK fans on the trade boards thread offered VAN 2nd + LAK 4th (#50 + #96) which I'd be inclined to accept.

Any of the top 8 3C options would be fine by me, except for McCann I guess because Pittsburgh are clearly keeping him. I'd also have Gourde in that top 8 as well; there's a chance Tampa considers a slight bit of retention to make it happen in which case it would be an attractive addition.

I'm surprised that you have Ehlers so high and Palat so low. Only one of those teams is a motivated seller, which should put Palat higher than Ehlers. Killorn should also be much higher, due to his ideal term and the fact that Tampa are motivated sellers.

In general I would have 3C as the highest priority addition, followed by 2RD, and then 2LW.

1. 3c
2. 2 RHD
3. 2LW

7D is obviously a need but I don't bother listing it as it's just something that needs to get done. A 3rd goalie should be an addition as well, but I can see Sakic being patient again.

I like the idea of a Zadorov for Copp trade as well. Winnipeg more than any other team has seen what Z can do and they have a clear need.

I read that McCann is actually still available, but I don't think we have what Pittsburgh wants. With Gourde, yeah if Tampa retains he shoots way up the list.

On Ehlers/Palat, that's purely based on age and contract. Both I think are unavailable. Ehlers would obviously be more expensive, but he'd be a slam-dunk acquisition for us. Plus I have consistently seen his name in trade rumors, so it's not impossible he gets moved.

Oh, and I also agree 3C is a more urgent need. I just presented thing in the order they appear in the depth chart.
 
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MarkT

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Nov 11, 2017
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I updated both the main post and the summary post to reflect the recent roster movement. I'm sad that DeMelo re-signed with Winnipeg, as 4 x 3m is a good deal for him.

As it stands I think I'd ideally like Tatar, Shattenkirk, and either Copp or Haula.

I plan to keep updating this so you guys can use it as a sort of free agent/trade target tracker.
 
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Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
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I updated both the main post and the summary post to reflect the recent roster movement. I'm sad that DeMelo re-signed with Winnipeg, as 4 x 3m is a good deal for him.

As it stands I think I'd ideally like Tatar, Shattenkirk, and either Copp or Haula.

I plan to keep updating this so you guys can use it as a sort of free agent/trade target tracker.
I see that you removed Bonino also. It's unfortunate that Sakic wasn't involved in that.
 

MarkT

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Nov 11, 2017
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I've updated the post to reflect the player movement up to this point. Notably, none of my identified LW2 targets have moved yet.

I'm also open to adding new names to the list if you have any suggestions.
 

John Mandalorian

2022 Avs: The First Dance
Nov 29, 2018
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I know you threw out several possibilities but bravo on Saad, Mark! :thumbu:

Sakic (via Clark) has said he wants a top 4 D. Let’s see if another one of your potential targets happens. As of now, we have Compher, Jost, Nuke, and Donskoi on the 3rd line. Plus there’s Cole and Graves might have just punched his ticket out of town by going to arbitration.

Do you have any thoughts about what happens next?

@MarkT
 

MaKarter

Big Game Bo
Jun 21, 2019
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I feel like the teams biggest need in the next 2 years is find Makar a partner that makes him better. Makar can make a lot of guys look good, but we need to find a partner that allows Makar to dominate.

The answer may be as simple as Byram. But most certainly is not Graves. And I like Graves.

Once we are paying Makar premium dollars after this year he needs stability out of his partner.
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,159
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I feel like the teams biggest need in the next 2 years is find Makar a partner that makes him better. Makar can make a lot of guys look good, but we need to find a partner that allows Makar to dominate.

The answer may be as simple as Byram. But most certainly is not Graves. And I like Graves.

Once we are paying Makar premium dollars after this year he needs stability out of his partner.
The fact that Graves remains unsigned could be due to Sakic wanting to see what term the Dman we acquire has, whether its 1 or 2 years.

If we add someone with 1 year term, then it would probably be prudent to sign Graves for 2 years rather than 1, otherwise we'd have Graves, Cole, and the new guy being out of contract at the same time in 2021 with only Byram and Girard signed.

Conversely, if we added a top 4 D with 2 year term it would make more sense to go 1 year with Graves, so as to not be locked in with 1 Dman too many in 2021 (ie. Girard/Byram/new guy/Graves).

Either way the ideal would be to have Girard + Byram + 1 (Graves/new guy) signed through 2021/22.
 

MarkT

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Nov 11, 2017
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I know you threw out several possibilities but bravo on Saad, Mark! :thumbu:

Sakic (via Clark) has said he wants a top 4 D. Let’s see if another one of your potential targets happens. As of now, we have Compher, Jost, Nuke, and Donskoi on the 3rd line. Plus there’s Cole and Graves might have just punched his ticket out of town by going to arbitration.

Do you have any thoughts about what happens next?

Thanks man!

I've updated the list to reflect the latest movement. As for what happens next, I expect Sakic to be very patient on the 3C front; maybe even waiting until the trade deadline and relying on Compher until then. This is because most of the best options (Danault, Copp, Gourde) are trade targets rather than UFA. What I really want though is to conspire with another team to simultaneously offer sheet Cirelli and Sergachev (and maybe even Cernak) - Colorado could go for either one. Tampa is ripe for the picking. Failing that, they could force Tampa to retain or Gourde or Tyler Johnson.

For defense, I think Vatanen may be the best fit, but if we want to go cheaper then I'd target Ben Hutton. Heck, I might sign both and trade Graves for a 3C (Copp?). Otherwise we can see what shakes loose on the trade front in terms of Weegar, Cernak, Carlo, Murphy, etc. We can still afford to dangle forward (Jost/Compher, Donskoi).

The one area I'm really worried about is our #3 goalie. All my free agent targets other than Hutch has been signed, and pretty much all for league min. We could have probably had any of them, which makes me worried Sakic is planning on having Werner and Miska as our only depth in net if Gruby or Francouz goes down.

I feel like the teams biggest need in the next 2 years is find Makar a partner that makes him better. Makar can make a lot of guys look good, but we need to find a partner that allows Makar to dominate.

The answer may be as simple as Byram. But most certainly is not Graves. And I like Graves.

Once we are paying Makar premium dollars after this year he needs stability out of his partner.

How about Ben Hutton? Big, defensively responsible. Can play 20+ tough minutes per game.
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,159
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Thanks man!

I've updated the list to reflect the latest movement. As for what happens next, I expect Sakic to be very patient on the 3C front; maybe even waiting until the trade deadline and relying on Compher until then. This is because most of the best options (Danault, Copp, Gourde) are trade targets rather than UFA. What I really want though is to conspire with another team to simultaneously offer sheet Cirelli and Sergachev (and maybe even Cernak) - Colorado could go for either one. Tampa is ripe for the picking. Failing that, they could force Tampa to retain or Gourde or Tyler Johnson.

For defense, I think Vatanen may be the best fit, but if we want to go cheaper then I'd target Ben Hutton. Heck, I might sign both and trade Graves for a 3C (Copp?). Otherwise we can see what shakes loose on the trade front in terms of Weegar, Cernak, Carlo, Murphy, etc. We can still afford to dangle forward (Jost/Compher, Donskoi).

The one area I'm really worried about is our #3 goalie. All my free agent targets other than Hutch has been signed, and pretty much all for league min. We could have probably had any of them, which makes me worried Sakic is planning on having Werner and Miska as our only depth in net if Gruby or Francouz goes down.



How about Ben Hutton? Big, defensively responsible. Can play 20+ tough minutes per game.
If we could get Tampa to retain like €665k on Gourde to get him down to $4.5m AAV that would be a good target. Mind, it would eat up the capspace we should be using on a Dman, so one of Compher or Donskoi would need to go most likely to enable us to still get that Dman.
 
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John Mandalorian

2022 Avs: The First Dance
Nov 29, 2018
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I’m not so sure the free agents will be ok with one or two year contracts? Maybe Ben Hutton would? It seems like if they’re going to get guys with one or two years left. It seems most likely it will be through trade.

Various comments I’ve seen suggest that the 1 or 2 years is about Gabe, Cale, and Nathan having contracts come up. The more I think about it the more I’m convinced that the expansion draft is the bigger issue.

I also wonder if the expansion draft might be affecting whether we keep any of Jost, Compher, or Donskoi.
 

AllAboutAvs

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The fact that Graves remains unsigned could be due to Sakic wanting to see what term the Dman we acquire has, whether its 1 or 2 years.

If we add someone with 1 year term, then it would probably be prudent to sign Graves for 2 years rather than 1, otherwise we'd have Graves, Cole, and the new guy being out of contract at the same time in 2021 with only Byram and Girard signed.

Conversely, if we added a top 4 D with 2 year term it would make more sense to go 1 year with Graves, so as to not be locked in with 1 Dman too many in 2021 (ie. Girard/Byram/new guy/Graves).

Either way the ideal would be to have Girard + Byram + 1 (Graves/new guy) signed through 2021/22.
Another possibility is Sakic is exploring a Graves+ trade for an upgrade to play with Makar. I doubt it but who knows with Sakic?
 

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