Speculation: 2020 NHL Entry Draft (June 26th-27th, 2020)

[Joe Hallenback]

Man that 2021 draft has got some drool worthy high end D men in it. Owen Power and Brant Clarke are both great young talents.

Carson Lambos from the Ice, Chayka from Guelph and the 2 Americans Aiden Hereschuk and Luke Hughes. Another name to be on the watch for is Corson Cuelmans out of the AJHL

 

[ps241]

Carson Lambos from the Ice, Chayka from Guelph and the 2 Americans Aiden Hereschuk and Luke Hughes. Another name to be on the watch for is Corson Cuelmans out of the AJHL

Nice looking D group for sure.

 

[untouchable21]

Yup. McKenzie usually gets a list very close to how it plays out on draft day. Last year, the two players that were picked considerably higher than on his list were a couple of big, mobile European D (Seider and Broberg). I wouldn't be surprised if one or two teams have players like Wallinder, Grans and Jurmo quite high on their lists.

I'm looking forward to seeing McKenzie's list because it will give an up-to-date read on how actual NHL scouts are ranking the first round, especially the top half. A few players of interest are Lundell (will he drop?), Sanderson (how high has he risen?), Quinn (is he really seen as a top 10?), Jarvis (how high has he risen?).

Agreed. In fact I am quite intrigued by Jurmo myself. Wouldn’t oppose to the Jets taking him if they somehow picked up an additional late first or early 2nd.

 

[ps241]

Carson Lambos from the Ice, Chayka from Guelph and the 2 Americans Aiden Hereschuk and Luke Hughes. Another name to be on the watch for is Corson Cuelmans out of the AJHL

do you like Lambos game? I haven’t seen him play yet.

 

[ps241]

@Daximus hope you are doing ok these days?

 

[surixon]

I have been a bit tied up but finally got time to do another scouting report on another prospect that I like and who may be available when we draft.

Name Dawson Mercer
Position C/RW
Hand Right
Projection Two-way second line center
Comparison Kyle Turris
Metrics

Generic
Skating 4
Size 3
Strength 3.5
Generic Score 10.5

Offensive Skills
Shooting 4.5
Vision and passing 3.5
Hands 4.5
Puck skills 4.5
Board work 4
Offensive IQ 4
Offensive Score 25

Defensive Skills
Defensive positioning 3.5
Defensive IQ 3.5
Back tracking 4
Defensive board work 4
Defensive puck management 3
Defensive Score 18

Metric Score 53.5
Notes

Generic
Mercer is a strong skater who is also very strong on his feet. He is quick out of the gate and has above average top speed. Dawson is also very agile and can quickly change pace and direction which allows him to be very elusive with the puck and close on players very quickly on the fore-check.
Mercer isn't the biggest guy but as mentioned earlier he is strong on his feet. He attacks the puck carrier hard and often outmuscles them for the puck. Dawson will also attack the net hard with and without the puck.
Offensive:
Mercer posses a fantastic shot. His release is lightning quick and he can place it from a number of places around the net. He shows good instincts in the offensive zone and will often find loose pucks to knock in. Not only that but Mercer has quick/soft hands and can score on a variety of deeks. His slap shot is also a weapon both from a one-timer and just walking in and shooting it.
Dawson is an exceptional stickhandler. He can make moves at top speed in tight coverage. His puck skills allow for him to open up shooting lanes for himself as well as to walk the puck to the net. Couple this with his skating, agility, and strength on the puck and he is hard to take the puck off of.
Mercer is also a solid and probably underrated playmaker. He has shown the ability to make tough passes in traffic and tight coverage. He is fairly proficient at using the shot pass for tips and redirections. While not elite he sees the ice well and will make quick reads and hard accurate passes.
Mercer has high offensive IQ. He is very good at anticipating what opposition defenseman and goalies will do with the puck which allows him to disrupt the oppositions retrievals and breakouts. Mercer also knows where to go in the offensive zone to open up for his shot or to bang in rebounds. He is good at taking or putting the puck into the high danger areas on the ice.

Defensive:
Dawson is an above average forward for his age. He back checks hard, is generally in decent position and works hard to win the puck back. Further refinement with and without the puck will be needed as he advances.

Aggregate:
I think Dawson has a very nice combination of skill, skating, tenacity and IQ to be a solid all-around top 6 player in the NHL. Given the amount of time spent playing center and his proficiency at faceoffs he is a
good bet to convert to a full-time center. When you add in his tenacity and ability to transition the puck well I think you have the makings of a Kyle Turris type 55-65 point C if he develops well.

 

[mondo3]

This is was a good read!!

Ive bookmarked that page - will compare against Jet selections

 

[Ja Sports]

Quinn. Jarvis. Mercer. Zary. Holloway.

You asked and I delivered - enjoy guys

Working on one for Quinn as well

 

[Ja Sports]

You asked and I delivered - enjoy guys

Working on one for Quinn as well

If you enjoy the vids please smash the like button on YouTube - it helps me out a lot!

 

[Joe Hallenback]

do you like Lambos game? I haven’t seen him play yet.

Carson Lambos

57

8

24

32

32

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Bowen Byram

60

6

21

27

52

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Cale Makar

54

10

45

55

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Jake Bean

51

5

34

39

2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Mikhail Sergachov

25

2

6

8

18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ivan Provorov

56

6

13

19

32

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Just some comparison numbers for players in their 16 year old season.

Provorov was playing the USHL as a 16 year old and adjusted nicely as the season went along which can be difficult for Euro's at 16
Sergachov was playingin the MHL which is Russia's junior league
Bean had a great rookie season on a very good team. His offensive game was very apparent back then
Makar was playing in the AJHL and even though that is an inferior league those numbers for a 16 year old are impressive
Byram season in context was extremely good for a 16 year old D man in the WHL

Lambos had a spectacular season IMO. The amount of ice time he had and what he did with it. It is hard to visualize but I will try to provide some context

Nolan Allan was the 3rd overall selection in that Bantam draft and he played 58 games with PA last season and put up 8 points in a bottom 6 role. I like Allan I think he is going to be in consideration for the first round next year. The only other guy I think at 16 who played D that had a good year was Graham Sward from Spokane. He had 17 points and played in a 3/4 spot there.

That kind of year that Lambos just had puts him in that top 3 pick kind of talk kind of year. Right now though the 2001 draft is looking super deep that a guy like Lambos could go much later and he might even be the 1st or 2nd D man taken

 

[puck stoppa]

do you like Lambos game? I haven’t seen him play yet.

Lambos is good. Be sure to watch him play whenever hockey resumes next year. The Ice should be fun to watch the next few years.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

The Jets could draft Carter Savoie in the 2 Nd round as he is predicted to go btw 48-65.

This would help out the Ice who own his CHL rights.
He would most likely change his mind on NCAA route to play Junior hockey with his brother in the city that has his NHL rights...

The Jets will most likely have a different BPA at their 2 Nd round pick ( most likely # 43).... but the Jets usually screw up their 2 Nd round picks anyways....... with the exception of Sam Berg and most recently 2 Nd round bust turned into a decent player Harkins.,.....

 

[Jimmyjets]

The Jets could draft Carter Savoie in the 2 Nd round as he is predicted to go btw 48-65.

This would help out the Ice who own his CHL rights.
He would most likely change his mind on NCAA route to play Junior hockey with his brother in the city that has his NHL rights...

The Jets will most likely have a different BPA at their 2 Nd round pick ( most likely # 43).... but the Jets usually screw up their 2 Nd round picks anyways....... with the exception of Sam Berg and most recently 2 Nd round bust turned into a decent player Harkins.,.....

That would be interesting but I hope they don't reach for him.

I think you're being unfair with the success the Jets have had in the 2nd round mostly because they've traded that pick a number of years. One bust for sure but I would actually argue they've been pretty good:

2011 - No pick
2012 - Lukas Sutter (Bust)
2013 - Nic Petan & Eric Comrie
2014 - no pick
2015 - Jansen Harkins
2016 - no pick
2017 - Dylan Samberg
2018 - David Gustafson
2019 - Simon Lundmark

So in my view one huge bust. Petan who looked like he just needed an opportunity that he still hasn't received. Comrie - We'll see.

Then you have a run of Harkins (looks good now), Samberg (could be a huge get) and Gustafsson (also looks like will be an NHLer).

Lundmark I haven't really followed and don't know a lot about.

Pipe dream scenario for me would be to package the 2nd with our 1st and Sami Niku to trade up with the Kings for 4OA pick(assuming they would take Askarov at 12OA).

Get to the front of the line and grab Stutzle or Drysdale. Then kick back and toss up some hail mary's in the 5th and 6th round. 3 picks in the draft wouldn't be ideal but having another one in the top 5 that would address one of the 2 current team needs (Top 6 C or Top pair RHD)

 

[Daximus]

@Daximus hope you are doing ok these days?

Yeah guys no worries. Selling the house so been busy getting all the ducks lined up. Then looking at new ones. Working lots to so things have been hectic. I peak in every once in awhile to check up on you guys and make sure you haven't gone to crazy.

 

[ps241]

Yeah guys no worries. Selling the house so been busy getting all the ducks lined up. Then looking at new ones. Working lots to so things have been hectic. I peak in every once in awhile to check up on you guys and make sure you haven't gone to crazy.

Good to know as I recall it wasn't just your mom who was sick so I was hoping you weren't dealing with another big challenge. Nice to know its a more routine challenge of life!!

 

[surixon]

Another potential 1st round pick scouting report:

Name Seth Jarvis
Position RW
Hand Right
Projection Top 6 winger
Player Comparison Mikael Granlund (But with more of a willingness to shoot)
Metrics

Generic
Skating 5
Size 2
Strength 3
10

Offensive Skills
Shooting 4
Vision and passing 4
Hands 4.5
Puck skills 4.5
Board work 3
Offensive IQ 4
Offensive Score 24

Defensive Skills
Defensive positioning 4
Defensive IQ 4
Back tracking 4
Defensive board work 3
Defensive puck management 4
Defensive Score 19

Metric Score 53

Notes
General
Seth Jarvis is a beautiful skater. He has everything that you would be looking for, top speed, acceleration and agility. He's one of the best skaters in the draft.
Jarvis isn't the biggest player but he doesn't shy away from physical contact. His lack of size can inhibit him when he gets involved in puck battles on the boards. He is however fairly strong on his skates so is able to hold off players when he has the puck.

Offense:
Jarvis plays a very high temple north/south game. He is an excellent stickhandler that likes to beat opponent defenders wide before cutting into the middle for a shot. He is also very strong at using his skating and agility to buy time to open up passing and shooting options in the offensive zone.
Jarvis has a very strong shot and shooting arsenal. He can get his shot of quickly both from a stand still and while in full stride. While his shot is not as powerful as others in the draft, he is good at placing it, especially in tight. He is also a pretty gifted finisher on breakaways due to soft and hands and a very nice backhand deek.
Seth also sees the ice really well and is a very gifted playmaker. He is good at recognizing who to pass the puck to on odd man rushes. He also shows some nice poise with the puck and can wait for passing lanes to open up.
He has high offensive IQ and plays a fairly simplified game that coaches will like. He knows where to go and where to put the puck and is efficient at using his speed and is more predictable then a player like Ehlers.

Defense:
Posses above average defensive play for a player his age. His generally in very good position and has good anticipation.
His speed and puck skills allow him to effectively exit the zone cleanly
He is very good on the back check and has a good stick that allows him to pick the pocket of opposition players.

Aggregate:
Jarvis is a very quick and dynamic multifaceted all-around player. He can score, pass, drive possession and isn't afraid to mix things up. The biggest issue is how will his size translate to the next level but we have seen a number of smaller players with high end speed and skill excel.
Seth is a very intriguing prospect that could turn into an elite play driving winger.

 

[untouchable21]

Another potential 1st round pick scouting report:

Name Seth Jarvis
Position RW
Hand Right
Projection Top 6 winger
Player Comparison Mikael Granlund (But with more of a willingness to shoot)
Metrics

Generic
Skating 5
Size 2
Strength 3
10

Offensive Skills
Shooting 4
Vision and passing 4
Hands 4.5
Puck skills 4.5
Board work 3
Offensive IQ 4
Offensive Score 24

Defensive Skills
Defensive positioning 4
Defensive IQ 4
Back tracking 4
Defensive board work 3
Defensive puck management 4
Defensive Score 19

Metric Score 53

Notes
General
Seth Jarvis is a beautiful skater. He has everything that you would be looking for, top speed, acceleration and agility. He's one of the best skaters in the draft.
Jarvis isn't the biggest player but he doesn't shy away from physical contact. His lack of size can inhibit him when he gets involved in puck battles on the boards. He is however fairly strong on his skates so is able to hold off players when he has the puck.

Offense:
Jarvis plays a very high temple north/south game. He is an excellent stickhandler that likes to beat opponent defenders wide before cutting into the middle for a shot. He is also very strong at using his skating and agility to buy time to open up passing and shooting options in the offensive zone.
Jarvis has a very strong shot and shooting arsenal. He can get his shot of quickly both from a stand still and while in full stride. While his shot is not as powerful as others in the draft, he is good at placing it, especially in tight. He is also a pretty gifted finisher on breakaways due to soft and hands and a very nice backhand deek.
Seth also sees the ice really well and is a very gifted playmaker. He is good at recognizing who to pass the puck to on odd man rushes. He also shows some nice poise with the puck and can wait for passing lanes to open up.
He has high offensive IQ and plays a fairly simplified game that coaches will like. He knows where to go and where to put the puck and is efficient at using his speed and is more predictable then a player like Ehlers.

Defense:
Posses above average defensive play for a player his age. His generally in very good position and has good anticipation.
His speed and puck skills allow him to effectively exit the zone cleanly
He is very good on the back check and has a good stick that allows him to pick the pocket of opposition players.

Aggregate:
Jarvis is a very quick and dynamic multifaceted all-around player. He can score, pass, drive possession and isn't afraid to mix things up. The biggest issue is how will his size translate to the next level but we have seen a number of smaller players with high end speed and skill excel.
Seth is a very intriguing prospect that could turn into an elite play driving winger.

I’d be very pleased if the Jets called his name with their 1st pick. Jarvis is probably one of my preferred prospects along with Lundell, Sanderson, Guhle and maybe Holloway for where they’ll be picking. Of course there are a slew of others that I could get behind and support even if only luke warm on them.

 

[surixon]

Rewatching the top prospects game:

Zary - plays a very mature game. Not a lot of flash but he thinks the game well and is solid all over the ice. He plodes around the ice though and his shot is merely average. I'm warming to him a bit but still don't see much a very high ceiling. I see a bit of Mike Richard's here.

Mercer - Game is a bit raw at times but the tools and smarts are there. He anticipates the play well in all zones. Has put himself in good spots, made smart passes and is looking to shoot with the puck on his stick. Another comparison stylistically that I am liking is Jeff Carter. Could tend to keep his feet moving a bit more at times.

Jarvis hasn't been that noticeable outside of one blazing rush and some good back checks.

Quinn had a tap in and has unloaded his shot a few other times. Good skills with the puck as well.

 

[Whileee]

Rewatching the top prospects game:

Zary - plays a very mature game. Not a lot of flash but he thinks the game well and is solid all over the ice. He plodes around the ice though and his shot is merely average. I'm warming to him a bit but still don't see much a very high ceiling. I see a bit of Mike Richard's here.

Mercer - Game is a bit raw at times but the tools and smarts are there. He anticipates the play well in all zones. Has put himself in good spots, made smart passes and is looking to shoot with the puck on his stick. Another comparison stylistically that I am liking is Jeff Carter. Could tend to keep his feet moving a bit more at times.

Jarvis hasn't been that noticeable outside of one blazing rush and some good back checks.

Quinn had a tap in and has unloaded his shot a few other times. Good skills with the puck as well.

My concern with Zary is that I'm not sure how much better he will get. Maybe he'll get a bit stronger and faster, but does he have another level to reach?

 

[surixon]

My concern with Zary is that I'm not sure how much better he will get. Maybe he'll get a bit stronger and faster, but does he have another level to reach?

I echo your concern. His game is pretty polished and complete, I don't see much projection with him.

Contrast that with some other players who have more pure skill but haven't really filled out or completely put there tools together like a Mercer and for me it's an easy choice.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Zary like Holloway is a late birthday so he is almost a year older than alot of the draftees.
I liked Zary at the u18s last year. It was where I first really began to notice him. I thought he was better then Holloway there. But I think Zary was on the wing there

I view Jarvis as a complimentary player. I think if plays with top level players he produces but if he is lower in a lineup the less he drives the play. I think he would be the type of player to replace someone in your top 6 in 3 to 4 years time. I just don't know if you build around him.

 

[Huffer]

Are there any studies that look at the draft age for comparable prospects and then analyze the improvement following the draft?

IOW - take similar players stats wise in their D years but at significant age difference. Is there anything to show that the younger of the two might continue to improve say in D+1 to a larger degree?

 

[Daximus]

Good to know as I recall it wasn't just your mom who was sick so I was hoping you weren't dealing with another big challenge. Nice to know its a more routine challenge of life!!

Yeah my grandmother underwent her last chemo treatment in April and is doing well. And my wife thankfully is cancer free. As soon as the house is sold I'll be back on here regularly. Kind of stepped away from hockey for a little bit to focus on this house stuff. Thanks for checking in on me though!!

 

[surixon]

Yeah my grandmother underwent her last chemo treatment in April and is doing well. And my wife thankfully is cancer free. As soon as the house is sold I'll be back on here regularly. Kind of stepped away from hockey for a little bit to focus on this house stuff. Thanks for checking in on me though!!

Great news. Glad your family is doing well.
Definitely look forward to more of your prospect analysis.

 

[Whileee]

Zary like Holloway is a late birthday so he is almost a year older than alot of the draftees.
I liked Zary at the u18s last year. It was where I first really began to notice him. I thought he was better then Holloway there. But I think Zary was on the wing there

I view Jarvis as a complimentary player. I think if plays with top level players he produces but if he is lower in a lineup the less he drives the play. I think he would be the type of player to replace someone in your top 6 in 3 to 4 years time. I just don't know if you build around him.

Interesting analysis.

Zary certainly looks solid in a lot of areas. He seems quite mature physically, and this was his third full season in the WHL. I wouldn't be surprised or particularly disappointed if the Jets drafted him, but I do worry about whether he has potential to elevate his game.

In contrast, I see Holloway as a player that went from a fairly weak level of competition to a very stiff level, and still has potential to put together his physical tools and skills to improve substantially. He has very good hands and good hockey sense. I really don't understand comparisons to Tanev, other than speed and aggressiveness. Holloway already has better hands than Tanev, and shows more hockey sense.

I tend to agree with you about Jarvis. He has plenty of skill and can make plays at a high pace, but he's a notch or two below where Ehlers was at the same stage. I'm not sure he'll ever have the dynamism that Ehlers has. Ehlers was a really special talent in his draft year.